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NFL is Back! Five Teams to Bet to Get off to a Great Start

by WagerHome Blog on September 8, 2020

After seven long months of no NFL, starting this weekend, we get all the NFL we could possibly want. Great catches, crunching hits, questionable play calls, and, of course, the best sports betting anywhere on planet Earth!

With no OTAs, no preseason, and a truncated training camp, we’ve never entered a new season knowing so little. But what we do know can be used to our advantage.

Top Five Teams to Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) at New York Giants

The Giants have perhaps the worst roster in the league and a new head coach. The Steelers have a great defense, Ben Roethlisberger, and continuity at head coach.

That will be the theme here in the early going. New coaches, new players, and new systems take time to gel.

We are going to see a larger number of blowouts here in the early going because of the weird offseason, and this will be one of them. Take the Steelers, lay the points.

Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Chicago Bears

Before Matthew Stafford got hurt last year, he was having a great season. The Bears, on the other hand, are still rolling out Mitchell Trubisky after Nick Foles failed to beat him out for the starting job. That’s not good.

Detroit had the better offseason and has the much better quarterback. The Lions are a sleeper to challenge for a playoff spot, and you should take them to cover here.

Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The roster purge in Jacksonville has left the cupboard bare. Meanwhile, the Colts have a new gunslinger under center, one of the best offensive lines in football, and a defense more than capable against Gardner Minshew and whoever else is left in Jacksonville.

Take the Colts and Philip Rivers to win this in a blowout and easily cover the 7.5 points.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Two teams with two new quarterbacks. There will be growing pains for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, but with no Derwin James to face in the Chargers secondary, he’ll have fewer pains to start.

On the other sideline, Tyrod Taylor has Keenan Allen, but the health of Mike Williams is a big question mark headed into Sunday.

This feels like a field goal win for the Chargers, which is why the Bengals at home getting the points are the better bet.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are still an AFC favorite and expect them to win here. But the Browns offense is now under the direction of Kevin Stefanski, and the offensive line is much better.

They will stick with the Ravens in this one and score against a Baltimore secondary now without Earl Thomas. Baltimore wins, but take the points and the Browns.

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Fantasy Options For The NFL Season Opener

by WagerHome Blog on September 3, 2020

We’ve made it. Almost. Unlike the delay for the baseball season and the interruptions to the NBA and NHL, it looks as though the NFL is going to kick off its season on time (fingers and toes crossed).

The rematch of the wildest playoff game last January – Kansas City’s 51-31 comeback against Houston – is set for Sept. 10 in front of limited fans at Arrowhead.

If you’re looking to this game for fantasy purposes, quarterback play is an obvious route. Two of the top five quarterbacks in the league will be slinging it in the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Texans’ Deshaun Watson.

But beyond quarterback, who are the best plays?

Houston Texans

David Johnson, RB

It’s been several years since David Johnson was a fantasy stud, and over the long haul, he’s a risky play because of his injury history. But he’s going against a suspect run defense, and because of the price Bill O’Brien paid to get Johnson (trading away superstar DeAndre Hopkins), there is no way he’s going to let Johnson go unused.

Johnson is going to be featured early and often, and fantasy players have their best chance to take advantage of his high touches here in Week 1.

Will Fuller, WR

With Hopkins gone, the Houston wide receiving corps turns to Will Fuller to lead. Along with his 89 yards against the Chiefs in the playoffs, Fuller had some absolutely monster games last season, including 217 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons, and 140 yards against Indianapolis.

Suspensions have the Chiefs secondary beginning the year short-handed, and Fuller will find plenty of holes to work.

Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce, TE

He’s already on your radar as a top fantasy option, but when it comes to playing the Texans, Travis Kelce absolutely feasts. In six career games against Houston, he has 41 receptions for 558 yards and five touchdowns.

He loves playing them, and there is simply no one on the Texans defense that can contain him. Whatever it takes, get Kelce into your lineup for this matchup.

Mecole Hardman, WR

If you can play Tyreek Hill, play Tyreek Hill. But if you’re looking for a cheaper option or are deciding between Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman, go with the second-year man out of Georgia.

The speedy Hardman averaged more than 20 yards per catch as a rookie and is in line to make a big leap in 2020. The Texans’ pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and Hardman will get at least one long score in this game.

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Betting on Burrow: Time to Bet Bengals Win Total for 2020?

by WagerHome Blog on April 30, 2020

It’s not often that people are excited to bet on the Cincinnati Bengals. But after a good draft that saw them pick Joe Burrow as their new starting quarterback – as expected – there is a buzz with the Bengals that hasn’t been there in many years. So much buzz in fact that the over/under on their 2020 win total is now 6.0.

So is this a time to put money down on Cincinnati? Can the Heisman Trophy winner make that much of a difference and make the Bengals good buys for the 2020 season? The history on that is mixed, and the answer is far from certain.

Joe Burrow vs. Peyton Manning vs. Andrew Luck

The Indianapolis Colts have been in a position to grab franchise-saving quarterbacks with the first overall pick twice since 1998 in Peyton Manning out of Tennessee and Andrew Luck from Stanford.

The year prior to Manning’s selection, the Colts were 3-13. The year with Manning as their rookie quarterback, the Colts were also 3-13. So there was no improvement there, although in year 2, Manning led Indy to a 13-3 record.

For Luck, the improvement was far more immediate. The Colts were 2-14 before he was drafted and 11-5 in his rookie year. So big turnarounds can happen.

Joe Burrow vs. Baker Mayfield vs. Kyler Murray

Burrow’s selection marks the third straight season that a quarterback has gone first overall. In 2018 the Cleveland Browns selected Baker Mayfield, while in 2019, the Arizona Cardinals picked Kyler Murray. All three of them won the Heisman Trophy the year before their selection.

It’s worth noting that neither Mayfield or Murray were the sure things that Burrow is thought to be, but both did lead their teams to improved records. Mayfield only started 13 games in 2018, but the Browns improved in the win column by seven victories. Easier to do when you were 0-16 the year before, but still, that’s a very noticeable improvement.

Murray, for his part, improved the Cardinals from 3-13 to 5-10-1. So not as big a jump, but still noticeable.

Joe Burrow vs. Andy Dalton

One big difference in the Burrow selection is that the Bengals weren’t saddled last year with a terrible quarterback. Andy Dalton has never been exciting but has always been solid.

The Browns, Cardinals, and Colts didn’t have a competent NFL quarterback as their starter prior to drafting their young superstar. So just how much will Burrow move the needle in Cincinnati?

Oddsmakers say they’ll go from two to six wins. It’s a tall order, but definitely not impossible.

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NFL Draft Results Push Oddsmakers to Update Betting Odds To Win Super Bowl LV

by WagerHome Blog on April 28, 2020

No one can really say what teams came out of the 2020 NFL Draft having had a great draft or having had a bad draft for at least a couple of years. Some picks will be busts, and others will be steals. But until they play a down of real NFL football, it’s too soon to give the definitive word on any one player.

Or course that doesn’t mean that we can’t have our own instant reactions, or that the bookmakers in Las Vegas don’t have their opinions as well. And since how they feel about the draft actually changed the futures betting board on winning Super Bowl LV, theirs is an opinion worth looking at.

San Francisco 49ers

The Super Bowl runner-up hangover is real, and so the 49ers have that to contend with. They also traded away DeForest Buckner and Matt Breida, lost Joe Staley to retirement, and saw Emmanuel Sanders walk in free agency. But a really strong draft has them still as the favorite to repeat in the NFC.

Defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw is a beast, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk draws high praise from everyone who’s coached him, and a draft-day trade brought in Trent Williams to fill Staley’s shoes. The 49ers have improved to +1000 to win the Super Bowl, trailing only Kansas City and Baltimore.

Dallas Cowboys

This was considered to be a wide receiver-rich draft. If you wanted or needed a wideout, you would get a good one. But for some inexplicable reason, the player everyone had tabbed as the best wide receiver of the bunch, CeeDee Lamb of Oklahoma, fell into the lap of the Dallas Cowboys at pick 17.

Dak Prescott now has Amari Cooper, Lamb, and Ezekiel Elliott as primary weapons, and in the NFC East, that will be tough to stop.

The Cowboys also got a second-round steal in cornerback Trevon Diggs, who most people believe has first-round talent. For their efforts, the Cowboys jumped to +2000 to win Super Bowl LV.

Green Bay Packers

Just three months ago, the Packers were one win away from the Super Bowl. But thanks to a lackluster NFL Draft, they are now tied for seventh in the NFC as possible Super Bowl LV winners. Aaron Rodgers is still great, but he needs weapons. So with their first pick in the draft, Green Bay selected a backup quarterback in Jordan Love of Utah State.

One win away from the Super Bowl and their first pick was for a player who won’t see the field this season. In all 37 wide receivers were taken in this year’s draft, and not one of them by the Packers.

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Finding Winning Prop Bets For The 2020 NFL Draft

by WagerHome Blog on April 23, 2020

This year is expected to be the most-watched NFL Draft in history while being one of the most unpredictable drafts in recent memory.

Unpredictable, because after the first two players on the board, there is no consensus. Unpredictable, because pro days were canceled because of COVID-19, and teams have had far fewer meetings with players. And unpredictable because a smooth draft is dependent on the coaches and GMs of all 32 teams having good WiFi connections.

All of that unpredictability can only mean one thing – anyone can find a winning prop bet because anything could happen at this year’s NFL Draft.

Player Draft Specials

The most intriguing player to talk about is Tua Tagovailoa. He has world-class talent but is just a few months removed from a serious hip injury. If he’s worth taking a risk with a high pick, which team is most likely to select him?

Dolphins +150
Chargers +175
Jaguars +500
Raiders +1000

The smart money is on the Dolphins or Chargers, and both teams still need to solidify a QB for 2020 and the future.

Chase Young is the best defensive player in the draft, but Isaiah Simmons is the most intriguing because of his versatility. Which team is most likely to draft Simmons?

Panthers +225
Giants +350
Cardinals +700
Falcons +700
Chargers +700

Interesting to see the Chargers near the top of this prop bet since they are also in the Tua sweepstakes. But if Tagovailoa goes to Miami, the Chargers will probably go with defense or trade back.

LSU vs. Alabama

College rivalries don’t end just because players move on to the NFL, and the rivalry between LSU and Alabama has carried over into a couple of different prop bets. You can bet the over/under on the number of players taken in the first round:

Alabama Over 5.5 (+100) Under 5.5 (-121)
LSU Over 5.5 (+235) Under 5.5 (-305)

Or you can just take the two rivals in a head-to-head matchup for most players taken in the first round:

Alabama -240
LSU +190

Mr. Irrelevant

The above props will be decided on the first day of the draft. But if you’re looking for some excitement on the last day, there is the very popular Mr. Irrelevant, and betting on which position will be selected with the 255th overall pick.

Offense -121
Defense +100
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper +1400

Pay Per Head Software

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What Quarterbacks Will Be Drafted In 2020 NFL Draft?

by WagerHome Blog on April 21, 2020

The NFL Draft is this week, which, in a normal year, would be an exciting time. But with the world thirsting for sports and sports betting, this year’s draft has even more anticipation surrounding it.

As always, the marquee position of quarterback is the one with the most intrigue as we count down to Thursday’s first round. Will Joe Burrow become the newest Cincinnati Bengal, or will they trade down and get a king’s ransom from someone else who wants the Heisman Trophy winner?

And what about the fate of Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa? Is his hip going to scare off general managers, or will his obvious talent win out? So many questions, and because of that, so many great prop bets surrounding this year’s draft and its crop of future NFL quarterbacks.

First Overall Draft Pick

Not since Andrew Luck was at the top of the draft board have experts been as united on who will be the first overall selection. LSU’s Joe Burrow had one of the most dominant college football seasons ever, and the national champion is a huge -10000 favorite to go with the first pick.

Second Quarterback Drafted

Very little drama surrounds the first overall pick and the first quarterback to come off the board. But who will be next? There are several teams near the top – Dolphins, Chargers, and perhaps the Lions – that all may draft a quarterback. Which player does that group value most?

Justin Herbert -125
Tua Tagovailoa -110
Jordan Love +2000
Joe Burrow +3300
Jacob Eason +15000
Jalen Hurts +15000
Jake Fromm +20000

Third Quarterback Drafted

It’s a two-man race to be the second quarterback drafted, so it stands to reason that those two men are also the leading candidates to be the third quarterback drafted.

Justin Herbert +100
Tua Tagovailoa +100
Jordan Love +400
Joe Burrow +10000
Jacob Eason +10000
Jake Fromm +15000
Jalen Hurts +15000

Player Draft Position

You can also try your hand at predicting the over/under on the final draft position of each of these quarterback prospects.

Justin Herbert 5.5 Over (-110) Under (-110)
Tua Tagovailoa 5.5 Over (+110) Under (-134)
Jordan Love 19.5 Over (-177) Under (+144)
Jacob Eason 47.5 Over (-143) Under (+118)
Jake Fromm 60.5 Over (-115) Under (-106)
Jalen Hurts 60.5 Over (-106) Under (-115)

Pay Per Head Software

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Wide Receivers Could Rule First Round Of NFL Draft

by WagerHome Blog on April 16, 2020

As the NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and fans and G.M.s have visions of future All-Pros dancing in their heads, sports betting on the NFL Draft is also heating up. There is Joe Burrow excitement and questions on which team will land superstar Chase Young, but the position group creating the most pre-draft buzz is at wide receiver.

The 2019 wide receiver class was incredible. A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Mecole Hardman, Marquise Brown, and Terry McLaurin all made first-year impacts. But this 2020 wide receiver class may be even better.

First-Round Selections

How many wide receivers will be taken in the first round? Right now, the line is 5.5, but the over on that is paying just -250, so clearly, oddsmakers think six wideouts will come off the board on the first day.

First Wide Receiver Selected

Everyone knows it’s a great class, but which player is best? Who is going to have the honor of being the first wide receiver selected in 2020?

Jerry Jeudy -121
CeeDee Lamb +175
Henry Ruggs III +250
Justin Jefferson +10000
Denzel Mims +10000
Tee Higgins +15000
Jalen Reagor +15000
Laviska Shenault, Jr. +15000

According to the odds, it’s a three-man race between the two Alabama wideouts – Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs – and the standout from Oklahoma, CeeDee Lamb.

Ruggs is the fastest of this group with a 40-time of 4.27. But don’t sleep on Baylor’s Denzel Mims, who goes 6-2, 206 pounds, with a 40-time of 4.38.

Wide Receiver Draft Position

Jeudy is the favorite to go first among the wide receivers, but just how high will he go? The line on his draft position is 12.5.

Lamb has the next highest draft position line at 13.5. Interesting note – the under on Lamb’s 13.5 line pays -150, which means oddsmakers really do have him going right behind Jeudy.

Ruggs is at 14.5, and again the under on that is the favorite at -127. LSU’s Jefferson, who made an eye-popping 111 catches in the Tigers’ national championship season, has an over/under draft position of 21.5. Both sides of that bet pay -110.

Who Gets Drafted First?

One last NFL Draft wide receiver prop bet is the individual contest between Crimson Tide teammates Jeudy and Ruggs, and who will be drafted first. Picking Jeudy pays -250. Going with Ruggs plays +200.

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Teams With Biggest Additions and Subtractions During NFL Free Agency

by WagerHome Blog on March 31, 2020

As much of the world remains on lockdown because of the coronavirus crisis, most of the sports world sits dark. But that does not mean that there isn’t anything to bet, or any major sports making news.

The NFL’s new league year kicked off two weeks ago, and several teams have gotten better, while some teams have gotten worse.

Biggest Additions

Arizona Cardinals

Kenyan Drake and Larry Fitzgerald are staying put, which is a big win for the Cardinals. But the coup de grace came when Arizona traded away David Johnson (expendable because of Drake) for one of the best wide receivers in football, DeAndre Hopkins.

Quarterback Kyler Murray now has all the weapons he needs to really show how good he can be.

Miami Dolphins

Loaded with draft capital and cap space, and sensing a change in the landscape of the AFC East, the Dolphins have been major buyers at the start of this offseason. Cornerback Byron Jones, linebacker Kyle Van Noy, and defensive end Shaq Lawson are the biggest names Miami has added.

The Dolphins also have three first-round draft picks and two in the second, so plenty more solid additions are on the way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Volume-wise the Bucs have been rather tame, as just one significant addition has been signed by Tampa Bay. But it’s the name of names, the biggest prize ever to hit free agency, five-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady.

One thing is certain – the Bucs will not see 30 interceptions from their quarterback next season. A tough NFC South just got that much tougher.

Biggest Subtractions

Houston Texans

Houston Texans fans don’t want to be reminded of it anymore, but they have been the biggest losers of any team so far. Not only did they send away their young quarterback’s favorite weapon in Hopkins, but they got almost no value in return.

The Vikings got a much better haul when they traded away wide receiver Stefon Diggs this offseason. And considering Houston doesn’t draft until the 57th pick, this offseason isn’t getting any better.

Los Angeles Rams

The 2018 NFC Champions will go into 2020 just a shell of their former selves. Gone are Todd Gurley, Clay Matthews, Dante Fowler, and Corey Littleton.

It’s hard to believe, but the Rams might actually be only the fourth-most talented team in their division following the slew of cap casualties. They also won’t draft until 52nd overall, so very little young and inexpensive help is on the way.

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Top Choices For Where Tom Brady Will Be Playing Next Season

by WagerHome Blog on January 28, 2020

NFL free agency doesn’t begin until March, but it’s never too early to start looking ahead to where the biggest name in the free-agent pool, Tom Brady, might land. There hasn’t been this much name recognition in a potential free agent since Peyton Manning hit the open market, joined the Broncos and led them to a Super Bowl.

So, where will Brady play football in 2020? These are the four most likely landing spots.

Los Angeles Chargers

Philip Rivers has officially moved to Florida, and he is just short of being officially out as the Los Angeles quarterback. But this team has talent, and it’s looking to make a splash as it moves into a new stadium and tries to emerge from the shadow of the Rams.

The Chargers are the kind of team that would seem to check all the boxes for Brady, who doesn’t just want to play but wants to play for another Super Bowl. The one downside about a move to Los Angeles is that it is a long way from Brady’s new house in Greenwich, Conn.

Indianapolis Colts

Jacoby Brissett is a fine quarterback, but he is not an adequate replacement for Andrew Luck, who suddenly retired last summer. Brady, on the other hand, would be a good replacement.

He brings instant championship swagger to the position, and the Colts have more than enough salary cap space to make it happen, and to surround him with even more talent.

Brady finishing his career as a Colt would also add an extra layer of fun to the Manning-Brady rivalry that lasted in the AFC for so many years.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The biggest knocks on the Patriots this last season was their lack of weapons at wide receiver. So how different would it be to see Brady throw to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate?

Jameis Winston isn’t gone yet. But following his 30-interception season, Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians didn’t stay away from talking about a possible quarterback change.

It’s hard to know exactly how good Brady would be in a new system at the age of 44, but there is zero chance that he will get anywhere close to 30 picks.

New England Patriots

Of course, staying in New England is a possibility, and even might be the most likely destination. Owner Bob Kraft wants him to stay. The fans want him to stay. And probably/maybe Bill Belichick wants him to stay.

And if the Patriots can find the money to keep him and get a wide receiver or two, Brady will stay. But he will still very much enjoy the courting from the rest of the league.

Whoever signs Brady will be an instant contender for a 2020 futures bet. And if you’ve ever thought of being the person who takes those bets, now is the perfect time to start your bookmaking business by signing up with a pay per head software provider.

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Picking Winners In NFL Conference Championship Games

by WagerHome Blog on January 18, 2020

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is often called the best weekend of football since you have eight great teams all squaring off for more than 12 hours of live action. But conference championship weekend, while coming with fewer games, does come with much bigger stakes.

Win, and you are on to the Super Bowl. Lose, and you’re watching it on television.

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AFC Championship Game

In the early game on Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs are hosting their second consecutive AFC Championship Game. One year ago, they lost in overtime to the New England Patriots after a late Tom Brady interception was wiped away by an offsides penalty.

The Chiefs played a slow first half last year as they were a little overwhelmed by the moment. Returning to the game for a second straight season, that will not happen this time around.

They also got their terrible start out of the way last week against the Texans before scoring touchdowns on an amazing seven straight possessions and winning 51-31.

The Tennessee Titans counter with Derrick Henry, who has been all-world in these playoffs. But even as good as he’s been, the Titans’ point totals have been just average – 20 against the Patriots and 28 against the Ravens.

Henry will get his yards and maybe a couple of scores. But they will not get to 35 points, and that is what they’ll need to get close to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

The Chiefs win 38-20, and Andy Reid gets to his second Super Bowl as a head coach.

NFC Championship Game

Each of the four remaining teams lost games this year that they shouldn’t have. But no one suffered worse losses than the Green Bay Packers.

The Packers dropped an early home game to an average Eagles team, then twice on road trips to the West Coast, they laid massive eggs, losing 26-11 to the Chargers and 38-7 to the 49ers.

They get an opportunity to seek revenge against that Niners team this Sunday, but San Francisco’s defense has gotten healthy the last couple of weeks, and it showed in the divisional round with a suffocating 27-10 win over the Vikings.

The quarterback edge in this game, of course, goes to Aaron Rodgers, who is trying to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time in nine years. But overall, the 49ers at home will prove to be too much.

They have the better defense, a great run game, and a weapon in George Kittle unlike anything the Packers have as a counter.

The 49ers win 27-17 and will play in their first Super Bowl in 24 years.

Top Five Teams to Bet

Pay Per Head Software

Houston Texans

Kansas City Chiefs

Pay Per Head Software

Joe Burrow vs. Peyton Manning vs. Andrew Luck

Joe Burrow vs. Baker Mayfield vs. Kyler Murray

Joe Burrow vs. Andy Dalton

Pay Per Head Software

San Francisco 49ers

Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers

Pay Per Head Software

Player Draft Specials

LSU vs. Alabama

Mr. Irrelevant

Pay Per Head Software

First Overall Draft Pick

Second Quarterback Drafted

Third Quarterback Drafted

Player Draft Position

Pay Per Head Software

First-Round Selections

First Wide Receiver Selected

Wide Receiver Draft Position

Who Gets Drafted First?

Pay Per Head Bookmaking Software

Biggest Additions

Biggest Subtractions

Pay Per Head Software

Los Angeles Chargers

Indianapolis Colts

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New England Patriots

AFC Championship Game

NFC Championship Game

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