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NASCAR Cup Series Championship

by WagerHome Blog on October 31, 2023

It began nine months ago with “The Great American Race” – the Daytona 500. The NASCAR Cup Series concludes this coming Sunday with the most important race of year, the Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway.

At least it’s the most important race of the year for four of the drivers. But you do not need to be one of the four drivers racing for the championship to win this race. But it has worked out that way in each of the last three years that this has been the final and deciding race.

In 2020 Chase Elliott won this race, and the Championship. In 2021 Kyle Larson did the double. Last year it was Joey Logano.

Odds to Win Cup Series Championship

Kyle Larson (+150)
William Byron (+250)
Ryan Blaney (+250)
Christopher Bell (+300)

The last three weeks for Ryan Blaney has been on quite the ride. He was disqualified three races ago in Las Vegas, dropping him well below the cutoff line for the Championship 4. But then the qualification was overturned, he finished as the runner-up at Miami two races ago, and he won at Martinsville in this race to punch his ticket to the final.

Blaney finished last season in eight place, and has a Cup Series-high finish of seventh in 2021.

William Byron was the other new qualifier at Martinsville, advancing as the highest ranked non-winner. He was the Cup Series sixth place finisher in 2022, his personal best finish. Denny Hamlin led for 156 laps, but his third place finish left him six points behind Byron, and out of the Championship 4. When Hamlin won here in 2019 it was not yet the final race of the season, and he did not win the Championship.

Kyle Larson is the favorite to emerge from next Sunday. He qualified for the Championship 4 with a win at Las Vegas in the Round of 8 opener. In the last three seasons, beginning with his championship-winning run in 2021, Larson has won 17 races and he has 57 top-five finishes. He finished fourth at Phoenix Raceway earlier this season.

Christopher Bell won at Homestead, putting him into the Championship 4. He finished the season in third place last year with three race wins. This season he has just two wins, but he’s been in the top-10 a total of 19 times, including the race at Phoenix in March.

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NFL Best Bets for Week 8

by WagerHome Blog on October 26, 2023

NFL Best Bets for Week 8

The 49ers lost for a second straight week, the Dolphins were shut down by the Eagles, and the Bills lost to the lowly Patriots – one of four one-win teams to get a victory in Week 7.

The crazy reality show that is the NFL season marches on, and here is what we *think* will happen this weekend.

Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Ravens offense was spectacular on Sunday against the Lions, with five touchdown drives that averaged 82 yards per drive. Lamar Jackson is turning into a great pocket passer, and yet he also still ran for a touchdown in the 38-6 win.

The Baltimore defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in points allowed, and in four October games they’ve allowed just 42 points. For their end of October game in Arizona, covering the 8.5-point spread should be easy.

New York Jets at New York Giants (+138 Moneyline)

The New York Jets are the favorite over the New York Giants, in this weekend’s battle of New Jersey. But the Giants have been playing much better with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, and Saquon Barkley is looking like a guy who should have been given a long-term extension.

It’s a home game for the Giants, so the majority of MetLife Stadium will be filled with their fans. And if anyone can handle the good Jets defense, and not turn the ball over multiple times, it’s a quarterback as experienced as Taylor.

The Giants are the underdog, but the plus money you are getting with a straight up by the G-Men makes this an attractive bet. As value plays go this weekend in the NFL, this is one of the best.

Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions (-8)

The schedule makers must have known that the Lions would slip up against the Ravens, and would need a good bounce back opponent the next week at home, and in primetime. Enter the Las Vegas Raiders, the definition of a “get-right” team on your schedule.

The Raiders were just dominated by a bad offense being led by an undrafted rookie from a Division II school. Now they get a great offense in the Lions, led by Jared Goff, who has been outstanding for six of the seven games this year.

The Lions are angry after their loss last week, and they will take out those frustrations on a very bad Raiders team.

Pay Per Head Software

The NFL season is almost halfway over, college football is entering the best part of its schedule, and the World Series is here. Plus we have the NBA and NHL, college basketball is coming, and the NASCAR season is down to its final two races.

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Final NASCAR Playoff Elimination Race at Martinsville

by WagerHome Blog on October 25, 2023

You can be forgiven if you haven’t been thinking about NASCAR. This week, and for the only full week of the year, we have the NFL and college football, the beginnings of the NBA and NHL seasons, and the Major League Baseball postseason.

But the most exciting event of all this weekend might be the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville. We have half of the Cup Series Championship 4, and the other half will be decided over 500 laps at the shortest track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, Martinsville Speedway.

NASCAR Odds to Win Xfinity 500

Denny Hamlin (+275)
Kyle Larson (+700)
William Byron (+750)
Brad Keselowski (+850)
Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Joey Logano (+1400)
Tyler Reddick (+1500)
Kevin Harvick (+1800)
Kyle Busch (+1900)

Kyle Larson was a winner at Martinsville in April, and a win here this week would build some big momentum for him going to Phoenix in a week. Although he’s already in the Championship 4 because of his win at Las Vegas two weekends ago, and his incentives to race hard are a little less.

The other driver in the Championship 4 is Christopher Bell, who won last week at Homestead. He is just outside the top 10 for this race at +2000 to win.

Denny Hamlin is the NASCAR favorite this weekend on the strength of his five career victories at Martinsville. In all likelihood, he will need to win in order to race with the championship on the line next week in Phoenix. He’s down by 17 points, and making up that difference would require some bad runs from the drivers he’s competing with.

William Byron is at +750 to win this week, and he’s in a good position to qualify for next week. He doesn’t have to worry about anyone else. If he gets 36 points this weekend, something he has done in three of his last five races at Martinsville, he is automatically in the Championship 4.

Ryan Blaney is also like Byron in that as long as no one below him wins the race, and he himself runs well, he’ll be in. He has picked up at least 42 points in seven of his last nine starts at Martinsville, and if he repeats that on Sunday, he’s likely in.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Winning at Martinsville is a big prize, but at this time of year, it’s simply a means of getting to the real prize, next week’s NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix International Raceway.

The eight NASCAR drivers still in the race for the championship this year are Bell and Larson (in the Championship 4), Byron and Blaney (currently third and fourth), and Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Hamlin, and Chris Buescher.

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NFL Week 7 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on October 19, 2023

With six teams on a bye in NFL Week 7, we have a slimmed-down NFL schedule this weekend, with only 13 games.

But fewer games does not mean fewer good NFL games, and we begin our Week 7 best bets look at a really good game in Baltimore.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

Jared Goff has been outstanding, the Lions are in the top 10 in both offense and defense, and their 5-1 record is tied for the best mark in the NFL. And Detroit is a road underdog at the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are good, but the Lions have been hammering teams, winning four games by double-digits. It’s not that the Ravens don’t present a challenge for the Lions, but at this point, Detroit has earned the right to not get points just because they’re on the road.

Take those points.

Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants

This is not one of the better games of the weekend, but it is one of the better bets. Yes, the Giants nearly shocked the world with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback last week in Buffalo. But that was a superior performance by Taylor against his old team. This week, he will have a letdown against an old division foe.

The Commanders look like a potential NFL Wild Card team, the Giants look like a top-five drafting team, and Washington is the better bet at MetLife Stadium.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

The Cardinals are playing as good a football as you can play and not win games. They are just 1-5 on the season but 3-3 against the point spread.

But this week, they get one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks, and they will find the going much tougher than in weeks past. Seattle should have won last week at Cincinnati, and they will this week at home, covering the spread.

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The game of the week is in Philadelphia, where the two best offenses in the NFL do battle.

They are No. 1 and No. 2 in total yards, the Dolphins lead the NFL in points, and the Eagles are fifth. They’re also both top-10 in yards per play and third down conversion rate.

But Miami has a huge edge in red zone scoring, and that is why the Dolphins should not be underdogs in this game. The Dolphins score touchdowns on 80% of their red zone trips, the Eagles score TDs on just 45%.

Miami scores more touchdowns, more points, and can beat you more ways, and that is why you should take the points.

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With No Unbeatens Left, NFL Super Bowl Odds Shift

by WagerHome Blog on October 17, 2023

It’s not just that the NFL’s last two remaining unbeaten teams lost on Sunday. It’s how they lost, and who they lost to.

The San Francisco 49ers were seen as the class of the league this NFL season, steamrolling their opponents, including their biggest NFL game of the year, a 42-10 Week 5 win over the Cowboys. But this week, facing a backup quarterback in P.J. Walker, the Niners lost 19-17 and managed just 215 total yards.

The Eagles hadn’t been winning by the same margins as the 49ers, but they were winning with the same frequency. But then, on Sunday, they turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions by Jalen Hurts, and they lost to the Jets, 20-14.

Who remains worthy of your Super Bowl bet?

Current Odds to Win NFL Super Bowl LVIII

Kansas City Chiefs (+450)
San Francisco 49ers (+450)
Philadelphia Eagles (+750)
Buffalo Bills (+800)
Miami Dolphins (+1000)
Dallas Cowboys (+1100)
Detroit Lions (+1400)
Baltimore Ravens (+1600)

The Kansas City Chiefs now have the longest winning streak in the NFL at five games. They aren’t blowing people out offensively, but they are playing much better defense than in years past, and their margin for victory is actually higher than last year.

The 49ers are still a great team, and a bad game against really good defense doesn’t change that. And one bad game from Brock Purdy doesn’t undo all of the good games he’s played in San Francisco.

The Buffalo Bills remain as the fourth betting favorite, but they were just one yard away from losing to the hapless Giants at home, following up on their poor performance in London. This feels like an overpay, considering how poorly they have played the last two weeks.

The Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL, and even as they begin to take some nicks – rookie running back De’Von Achane is on IR – their explosiveness hasn’t changed. They scored the final 42 points in their blowout win over the Panthers this week.

The Detroit Lions at +1400 should feel disrespected. They beat the Chiefs straight up, albeit against a Chiefs team missing two All-Pros. But all of their other wins have come by double-digits, including this week’s 20-6 easy victory on the road at Tampa Bay. Detroit’s lone loss came in overtime against a good Seattle team.

The Lions have seen improving odds each week, thanks to their 5-1 record, but both the Bills and Cowboys have more losses than the Lions and really bad losses at that.

Pay Per Head Software

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Best Bets for NFL Week 6

by WagerHome Blog on October 12, 2023

At this point in the season, there is little doubt that the San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL. They are great on both sides of the ball and beating opponents by the largest margin in the league.

The Philadelphia Eagles are also 5-0, and they will have something to say about the invincibility of the 49ers when the two teams meet the first week of December. Until then, we’ll see if both of them can remain perfect.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Cleveland Browns

Normally, when the coach of a great NFL team tries to pump up an inferior opponent before they play on Sunday, we ignore it. But 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has a point when he looks ahead to their game in Cleveland, and calls the Browns, “the biggest challenge so far.”

The Browns’ defense is very good, and by a number of traditional and advanced metrics, they rank first or second. They do indeed present a problem for the 49ers, who have found the going pretty easy on offense through five weeks.

The problem for the Browns is their offense, which is not good. And Deshaun Watson is uncertain to play, leaving the starting quarterback job to P.J. Walker. Walker made five starts last year for the Panthers, and he was 2-3.

The 49ers offense won’t show out as much in this game, but covering the spread is still the best bet.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Jets

The Eagles also face a really good defense as they look to stay perfect on the season. The Jets also have a suspect offense. However, Breece Hall has emerged as a true star this season, and there are no signs of the ACL tear that ended his rookie NFL season in 2022.

Because of their ability to run the ball and play good defense, the Jets will keep this game close in the beginning. But the Eagles are just too good along both the offensive and defensive lines, and they will eventually wear down the Jets and cover this spread late in the NFL game.

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Cowboys had a bad game last week at San Francisco, but they haven’t had two bad NFL games in a row in more than two years. This defense is still very good and easily the best defense faced this year by the Chargers.

L.A. is hard to trust, with bad losses to the Titans and Dolphins and near-misses against the Vikings and Raiders. The Cowboys fans will fill up SoFi Stadium, and they will be treated to a spread–covering win.

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The NHL Drops the Puck on its 107th Season

by WagerHome Blog on October 10, 2023

NHL is back, opening the new season with a triple-header on Tuesday night, including the Vegas Golden Knights hanging their Stanley Cup championship banner.

When the league played its first season in 1917, there were just four teams (only three finished the year), and the winner of each half of the 22-game season played for the NHL Championship and the O’Brien Cup.

Toronto beat Montreal for that inaugural NHL title and then advanced to play the winners of the Pacific Coast Hockey Association, which was won by Vancouver.

Up for grabs in the meeting between Toronto and Vancouver was a trophy that had first been commissioned in 1892 and was known by the 1917-18 season as Lord Stanley’s Cup.

NHL Odds to Win the 2023-2024 Stanley Cup

Carolina Hurricanes (+800)
Toronto Maple Leafs (+900)
New Jersey Devils (+900)
Edmonton Oilers (+1000)
Colorado Avalanche (+1000)
Vegas Golden Knights (+1200)
New York Rangers (+1300)
Dallas Stars (+1400)
Boston Bruins (+1600)
Florida Panthers (+1600)

The Hurricanes won the Metropolitan Division last year but were knocked out of the playoffs by the Florida Panthers. Carolina is the preseason betting favorite to win the Cup this year, just ahead of Toronto and New Jersey.

The Oilers and Avalanche have the shortest odds in the Western Conference, followed by the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights.

NHL Odds to Win Hart Memorial Trophy

Connor McDavid (-105)
Nathan MacKinnon (+900)
Leon Draisaitl (+1000)
Matthew Tkachuk (+1200)
Kirill Kaprizov (+1600)
Auston Matthews (+1600)
Jack Hughes (+1800)

There are a number of good players in the NHL that you can bet on to win the Hart Memorial Trophy, given to the league’s MVP. None of them are as good as Connor McDavid, who won this trophy last season for the third time.

He led the league in goals and assists, and his 153 points last season was the most in the NHL since Mario Lemieux had 161 in 1996. Only Lemieux, Wayne Gretzky, and Steve Yzerman have scored more points in a season than McDavid.

NHL Odds to Win Vezina Trophy

Ilya Sorokin (+400)
Juuse Saros (+600)
Igor Shesterkin (+600)
Connor Hellebuyck (+700)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (+800)
Jake Oettinger (+1200)
Linus Ullmark (+1800)

Ilya Sorokin is an Olympic gold medalist, and the Islanders goaltender is the favorite to win this Vezina Trophy, given each season to the best goalie in the league.

Igor Shesterkin of the Rangers also won a gold medal in 2018, and he is paying +600. Andrei Vasilevskiy, the great goaltender in Tampa Bay, is paying +800.

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Best Bets for NFL Week 5

by WagerHome Blog on October 5, 2023

Best Bets for NFL Week 5

We are now into the bye weeks, so in Week 5, we have two fewer games to bet, as there are four teams off this week. Although one of those teams is not the Atlanta Falcons, who after playing in London last week, chose to play this week at home instead of taking the customary bye.

It was a good choice. The way they played on Sunday in London, better to get that taste out of your mouth as soon as possible.

Houston Texans (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have Bijan Robinson, who began the season as the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner. But Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is the favorite right now after putting up four of the best games to ever start a season, and start a career.

DeMeco Ryans has this team playing well up and down the roster, and along with the stunning start for Stroud, there has been great play from wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and rookie defensive end Will Anderson is making an impact on defense.

There are great players on the Falcons offense, but there hasn’t been much good play, and that will continue this week after their long weekend in England. Take the Texans and take the points.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-10)

The last time the Lions were double-digit favorites was 2017, when the Matthew Stafford-led Lions hosted the Cleveland Browns, quarterbacked by DeShone Kizer, coached by Hue Jackson, and finishing what was a 1-31 record over two seasons.

The Panthers aren’t nearly that bad, so a good deal of this week’s point spread is a belief in the Lions, and not just a disbelief in their opponent. However, there is definitely a good deal of the latter. The Panthers have problems that playing against the best team in the NFC North will only expose further.

The Lions covered in that game against the Browns in 2017, and they will cover this week as well.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

Dallas Cowboys Scores, Stats and Highlights - ESPN

It’s the game of the week, and it’s a playoff rematch from last season, when San Francisco and Brock Purdy ended the Cowboys hopes of a deep playoff run. There won’t be any season-ending losses this time around, but it’s easy to envision another big win for the Niners. Less easy to picture Dallas getting the win.

Purdy has been the most efficient quarterback in the league, and Christian McCaffrey is making a serious bid to end the quarterback position’s dominance of the MVP award. This game goes to the Niners, and hopefully we’ll see another addition of this rivalry in the playoffs in January.

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MLB Postseason Betting Guide

by WagerHome Blog on October 3, 2023

The four best MLB teams in baseball’s regular season won’t play their first playoff game until Saturday, October 7.

That gives them six full days off, begging the question if a hot baseball team wants to keep playing or if resting players and setting your rotation is the better way to go.

We shall find out as baseball debuts its new postseason format of 12 teams and four MLB Wild Card series that are each best-of-three.

MLB Wild Card Matchups

Texas Rangers (+135) at Tampa Bay Rays (-160)

As the top seed in the American League, the Baltimore Orioles will get the winner of the Rangers at Rays series. Texas is in the playoffs for the first time since 2016, while the Rays are in the playoffs for the fifth straight year.

Toronto Blue Jays (-105) at Minnesota Twins (-115)

In the early 1990s, these were two of the best teams in baseball. The Minnesota Twins won the World Series in 1991, and the Toronto Blue Jays won in 1992 and 1993. Neither has been back since and of the 12 playoff teams, only the Brewers and Orioles have been absent from the fall classic for longer.

The winner will play the defending World Series champion Houston Astros.

Miami Marlins (+160) at Philadelphia Phillies (-190)

The winner of the Marlins-Phillies series will head to Atlanta to take on the top-seeded Braves. The Phillies are the defending National League champions, they are the higher seed, and they are the favorites to win this series. However, in 13 games this regular season, the Marlins came out on top 7-6.

Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) at Milwaukee Brewers (-155)

It’s been more than 40 years since the Milwaukee Brewers were American League champions and playing in the World Series. Now they are National League Central champions for the fourth time and hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks, a World Series winner 22 years ago.

The winner of this series will be at Dodger Stadium on Saturday.

MLB World Series Odds

Atlanta Braves (+310)
Houston Astros (+450)
Los Angeles Dodgers (+450)
Baltimore Orioles (+700)
Tampa Bay Rays (+1000)
Philadelphia Phillies (+1300)
Texas Rangers (+1600)
Toronto Blue Jays (+1600)
Milwaukee Brewers (+1700)
Minnesota Twins (+2000)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+3000)
Miami Marlins (+3500)

The Braves finished this MLB season with the best record in baseball, and the 2021 World Series champions enter the postseason as the favorite to win another World Series. The Houston Astros are at +450 to repeat as champions, with the Los Angeles Dodgers also at +450.

The Baltimore Orioles, a 100-game winner for the first time in 42 years, have the shortest odds in the American League at +700.

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Odds to Win Cup Series Championship

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NFL Best Bets for Week 8

Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals

New York Jets at New York Giants (+138 Moneyline)

Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions (-8)

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NASCAR Odds to Win Xfinity 500

NASCAR Cup Series Championship

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Detroit Lions (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

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Current Odds to Win NFL Super Bowl LVIII

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San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Cleveland Browns

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Jets

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers

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NHL Odds to Win the 2023-2024 Stanley Cup

NHL Odds to Win Hart Memorial Trophy

NHL Odds to Win Vezina Trophy

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Best Bets for NFL Week 5

Houston Texans (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-10)

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

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MLB Wild Card Matchups

Texas Rangers (+135) at Tampa Bay Rays (-160)

Toronto Blue Jays (-105) at Minnesota Twins (-115)

Miami Marlins (+160) at Philadelphia Phillies (-190)

Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) at Milwaukee Brewers (-155)

MLB World Series Odds

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