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Where the U.S. Stands in Winning the World Cup

by WagerHome Blog on July 27, 2023

Wednesday night’s draw with the Netherlands was a rare miss for the United States. It was the first time in nine World Cup matches against European opponents that they didn’t win.

It also ended their streak of never trailing in 18 straight World Cup matches. The Netherlands were up 1-0 before the U.S. battled back in the second half to get the draw.

The Netherlands are a good side, having made it to the finals in 2019. But consider that the United States in the group stage in 2019 never conceded a goal. They blazed through all three of their matches, winning by a combined score of 18-0.

This is setting up to be a far less dominant performance, but is the U.S. still the favorite to ultimately win the World Cup trophy next month in Sydney?

Favorites to Win FIFA Women’s World Cup

United States (+250)
Spain (+320)
Germany (+550)
England (+600)
Brazil (+1300)
Netherlands (+1600)
Japan (+1800)
France (+2000)

When the World Cup began, the U.S. was at +250 to win it, and that is where they remain after two lackluster matches. So far, the betting public doesn’t see any reason to jump off the American bandwagon. Up next is a game on August 1 against Portugal, a team that they are a perfect 10-0 against and with a perfect scoreline of 39 goals for and zero goals against.

At the moment, the U.S. is on top of their group with a superior goal differential. But should the Netherlands beat Vietnam by enough, they could pass the U.S., leaving the Americans as a second-place qualifier for the next round.

The winner of Group E, which is where the United States leads, is scheduled to play the runner-up of Group G, which was Italy, as of Thursday. If the United States were to finish as the runner-up in Group E, they would instead play the winner of Group G, which is currently Sweden.

Neither Italy nor Sweden is among the favorites to win the tournament, so whichever team the United States plays, it should win. But while the U.S. has stayed stable atop the favorites board, we have seen some changes.

England was second at +400 when the World Cup began, but they have dropped to the fourth position. Spain was at +650 last week before their first game, but they sit on top of Group C after two impressive wins and are now playing at +320. Germany is the leader of Group H, and they have also improved their odds.

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There are another three weeks of “football” to be played in New Zealand and Australia, plus football is set to kick off next week in Canton, Ohio, with the Hall of Fame Game. Then the entire NFL preseason begins the following week.

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Will Shohei Ohtani be Traded?

by WagerHome Blog on July 25, 2023

We may not know the answer to the above question until the final hours of the Major League Baseball trade deadline on August 1, which officially ends at 6:00 pm ET. But before the Angels answer the question about what they will do with Shohei Ohtani, the two-way sensation that is almost a shoo-in to win the American League MVP, they need to decide if they should trade him.

There is no player like him in the world. How do you trade away the unicorn? But, with the injury to Mike Trout, the Angels aren’t likely to make the postseason, and they aren’t likely to sign Shohei Ohtani this offseason to what is expected to be the richest contract in baseball history and perhaps all of American professional sports.

The case for trading your superstar is clear, and we have seen similar moves in the past. The one difference, however, is that we have never seen a similar superstar.

Shohei Ohtani’s Team After the Trade Deadline

Los Angeles Angels (-170)
Los Angeles Dodgers (+800)
San Francisco Giants (+900)
The Field (+1000)
Atlanta Braves (+1100)
New York Yankees (+1400)
Baltimore Orioles (+1500)
New York Mets (+1800)
Tampa Bay Rays (+2200)
Philadelphia Phillies (+2500)
Boston Red Sox (+2500)
Toronto Blue Jays (+2800)

According to the oddsmakers, the smart money is on Shohei Ohtani saying with the Angels. It’s a combination of a number of factors. Many suitors are afraid of both the asking price to acquire him in the next week and the additional price of keeping him beyond this year. There are 11 teams listed here as possible trade partners with the Angels, but in reality, there are far fewer than that.

There is also the pressure on the Angles and owner Arte Moreno to get a king’s ransom in return. If he is going to sell an Ohtani trade to a fanbase that will no doubt be upset with the move, he can only do it with a huge haul of top prospects. And that need by the Angles to score big will limit the Ohtani suitors even more.

If he does leave the Angels by the end of the month, he may not go far. The Dodgers are the non-Angel favorite. But again, this is where the owner will have his say. Of all the teams for Shohei Ohtani to go on and star in the postseason for, the city-rival Dodgers would hurt the most. The Giants would hurt considerably less.

And oh my, wouldn’t it be fun to see both Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr. playing for the Braves in October.

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Just after the trade deadline hits on August 1, the NFL preseason begins on August 3 with the Hall of Fame Game between the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets.

A total of 49 preseason games will be played, then 272 regular season games. And all of them will be wagered upon.

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NFL Special Props for 2023

by WagerHome Blog on July 21, 2023

NFL training camps opened this week, and by early next week, all 32 teams will be conducting full-squad practices as they get ready for another season of professional football. For us, that means another season of NFL wagers and fun prop bets to get us ready for September’s kickoff.

Justin Fields – Chicago Bears

Bears quarterback Justin Fields is hoping to take another big step this season, and the special props are ready for it.

4,750 combined passing and rushing yards (+150)

This is a lot of total yards for a quarterback, and it would be more than 1,400 above his 2022 output. But he is a special player with an incredibly high ceiling. Have the Bears added enough around him to allow this kind of a leap.

400-plus passing yards in any one game (+225)

This is a bet that is more likely to happen than the season bet above. In a division with the high-scoring Lions and with games against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Cardinals, a one-game shootout where Fields goes crazy isn’t that far-fetched.

New York Jets

We’re going to get a lot of the Jets this season, thanks to the move to New York by Aaron Rodgers. They are going to be this year’s “Hard Knocks” team, and they have some of the most tempting special season props.

Aaron Rodgers: 4000-plus passing yards and Jets make playoffs (+160)

On the surface, this seems like an easy bet. Rodgers has gone over 4,000 yards 10 times in his career and 11 times he’s been to the playoffs. But he was under 4,000 yards in 2022, and the Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2009.

Garrett Wilson: 175-plus receiving yards in any one game (+275)

After winning Rookie of the Year, expectations for Garrett Wilson are off the charts. He’s an incredible talent, and Rodgers will help move him into the class of elite wide receivers.

All of that is true, and what is also true is that 175 yards is a tall order. In 2021 the Rodgers to Davante Adams connections went over 175 only once. It also only happened once in 2020 and once in 2019. Just three times in 108 games together.

Rodgers and Wilson will have many big games together this season, but to go over 175 yards is a tall order and not all that likely to happen.

Dalvin Cook’s Next NFL Team

Patriots (+150)
Dolphins (+200)
Jets (+400)
Broncos (+1500)

Dalvin Cook is a 27-year-old four-time Pro Bowler, and he will have a team by the end of training camp. The odds suggest quite strongly that it will be in the AFC East, but not with the Bills, where his brother James plays.

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The Open Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 18, 2023

There are 156 of the best golfers in the world competing this weekend at the 151st edition of The Open Championship. It is the oldest tournament in golf by at least 25 years, first played in 1860 as a three-round tournament on a 12-hole links course with eight competing players.

It is still open to all who can qualify, which started in 1861, and it is still links golf, which brings an extra challenge for golfers that they don’t find on courses in the United States.

It also now has a much bigger field, and instead of the original red leather belt with a silver buckle worth £25, the winner gets the Claret Jug (introduced in 1872) and $3 million, a $500,000 increase from last year.

Favorites to Win The Open Championship

Rory McIlroy (+700)
Scottie Scheffler (+700)
Jon Rahm (+1300)
Cameron Smith (+1800)
Brooks Koepka (+1800)
Xander Schauffele (+2200)
Viktor Hovland (+2200)
Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
Tyrrell Hatton (+2500)
Rickie Fowler (+2500)

It’s been a minute since Rory McIlroy came into a major championship with the expectations he has this week. In 2014 he won The Open Championship, then followed that up with a win in the PGA Championship. But since then, it’s been a string of majors (and major) disappointment.

This year in the majors, he has a runner-up and a T7, he has six straight top-10 finishes, he just won the links golf tuneup at the Scottish Open, and this year’s British Open is back at Royal Liverpool, where McIlroy won his Claret Jug nine years ago. The stars are aligning for McIlroy, and he is a deserved co-favorite.

The other golfer at +700 is Scottie Scheffler, the world’s number-one player. In the majors this year, he has finished T10, T2, and third, and he hasn’t finished outside the top-12 in any tournament since last October. His best finish at The Open Championship was a T8 in 2021.

Jon Rahm has four wins this season, including the Masters in April. He was T3 at The Open Championship in 2021. Cameron Smith is the defending champion and is hoping to be the first repeat Open champion since 2008. Five-time major champion Brooks Koepka is hoping to build on his win at the PGA Championship and win his first Claret Jug. He has three PGA Championship wins and wins at the U.S. Open in 2017 and 2018.

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Crayon 301 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 13, 2023

This week, we are in for the Crayon 301. One of the best parts about NASCAR racing is the variety. We had a street race in Chicago, last week the drivers were in the rain doing pack racing in Atlanta, and now we’re up north for some short and flat racing in New Hampshire.

You must be able to handle your car in all types of conditions if you are going to come through the Cup Series season as the champion.

Favorites to Win Crayon 301

Martin Truex Jr. (+650)
Christopher Bell (+650)
Kyle Larson (+850)
Denny Hamlin (+850)
William Byron (+1100)
Kyle Busch (+1100)
Kevin Harvick (+1100)
Chase Elliott (+1100)
Ryan Blaney (+1400)
Joey Logano (+1400)

Martin Truex Jr. and Christopher Bell are co-favorites at +650, and both have had a good recent run on this track. Since 2020 Truex has two top-five finishes in three starts and has led for a total of 172 laps over those three races.

Bell has two top-five finishes in three races, including a win here last July. Earlier this season at the short track in Richmond, Bell finished fourth. He was second at Richmond last summer.

Kyle Larson also likes short tracks. He won at Richmond back in April and finished in fifth place there last year. Phoenix is also short and flat, and since 2020 he has a win and two other top-five finishes there. Larson has never won at New Hampshire, but three separate times he has been the runner-up.

William Byron is coming off a win in Atlanta, he is the current Cup leader, and he is bunched with three other drivers at +1100. In five starts at New Hampshire, he has never cracked the top 10, but he had a third-place finish at Richmond last year, and this year he led there for 117 laps.

He was the winner at Phoenix in March, one of his four wins this season, and that could be a sign he’s ready to be in the mix this weekend.

Best Crayon 301 Bet Outside the Top 10

Not listed above is Brad Keselowski, but he really should be on your Crayon 301 betting radar. He’s a two-time winner at New Hampshire, with nine top-five finishes and an average finish since 2020 of third place.

Best of all, he is paying +1800 to win and +250 to finish in the top-five. He’s been 50/50 on top-five finishes over his last eight races here, so +250 is excellent value.

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Scottish Open 2023 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 11, 2023

The Scottish Open 2023 is finally here! Last week’s John Deere Classic was missing most of the stars on the PGA Tour. This week at the Barbasol Championship, there is almost no one of any note playing.

That’s because the best players in the world have already made their move over to the UK. They are either prepping for The Open Championship in around Liverpool, or they are in Scotland, acclimating to the weather and links golf by playing in the Scottish Open.

Odds to Win the Scottish Open

Scottie Scheffler (+650)
Rory McIlroy (+900)
Xander Schauffele (+1400)
Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
Viktor Hovland (+1800)
Tyrrell Hatton (+1800)
Tommy Fleetwood (+2000)
Rickie Fowler (+2000)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500)
Jordan Spieth (+2500)

Missing from this list of favorites is Jon Rahm, as he gets ready for The Open on his own and away from this star-studded field. He is one of two top-10 golfers in the world that isn’t playing at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, located about 20 miles outside of Edinburgh.

Scottie Scheffler is here, and he is the favorite. He missed the cut at the Scottish Open last year, although he was terrific here in 2021. Looking ahead to next week, he is only the second betting favorite for The Open.

That’s because next week’s favorite is Rory McIlroy, the No. 2 betting favorite in Scotland. McIlroy has played here in two of the last three years, with only a 34th-place finish to show for it.

But he’s playing with confidence, and next week he will be playing in The Open at the same place he won in 2014. Consequently, that was the last time he won one of golf’s majors.

Xander Schauffele is an obvious third betting favorite, if not deserving of even higher. He won this tournament last year by shooting the low round of the day on both Friday and Saturday. He also has top-10 finishes at the Masters and U.S. Open this year, and he’s coming off a -14 at the Travelers Championship.

Next week at The Open, he’s tied for sixth on the betting board at +2000.

Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick is also worth your time. He started off his season of majors with a T10 at the Masters and just recently had a T17 at the U.S. Open. But why you should like him is how he has done specifically in this event.

He was T6 here last year, T2 in 2021, and T14 in 2019. He knows this course, and he excels in the bad weather that usually comes with playing in this part of the world.

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We’ve got the Scottish Open this week, along with Wimbledon and the return of baseball from break. Next week we’re at Royal Liverpool for The Open, and then on to the Women’s World Cup, football, and more.

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UFC 290 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 6, 2023

It’s International Fight Week at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the busiest week of the year in the UFC, the kickoff to the summer fighting schedule, and the home of two championship bouts.

Brandon Moreno-Alexandre Pantoja Odds

Moreno Win (-190)
Moreno by KO/TKO (+275)
Moreno by Submission (+800)
Moreno by Decision (+150)

Pantoja Win (+160)
Pantoja by KO/TKO (+900)
Pantoja by Submission (+425)
Pantoja by Decision (+400)

Twice Brandon Moreno has won the flyweight title, with the most recent win coming in January when he beat former champion Deiveson Figueiredo. But he is also looking at a history in which he has lost twice to Alexandre Pantoje.

Pantoje was victorious by submission when they met in 2016, and then two years later he won by unanimous decision. It’s been five years now since they fought, and as you can see from the odds, that UFC history, while nice, doesn’t tip the odds to Pantoje. Moreno is a better fighter now, and he’s a good bet to hold on to his belt beyond Saturday’s match.

Volkanovski-Rodriguez Odds

Volkanovski Win (-400)
Volkanovski by KO/TKO (+150)
Volkanovski by Submission (+1000)
Volkanovski by Decision (+125)

Rodriguez Win (+300)
Rodriguez by KO/TKO (+550)
Rodriguez by Submission (+1400)
Rodriguez by Decision (+1000)

After a flirtation at lightweight, which almost saw him beat champion Islam Makhachev, Alexander Volkanovski is back to featherweight and 145 pounds. And that is where he is dominant, and why he is a heavy UFC favorite to win the unification belt on Saturday.

A win here pretty much wraps up his possible accomplishments at 145 pounds, and it is likely that we see take another crack at 155 with a rematch against Makhachev. But before he gets to that, he needs to take care of business against Yair Rodriguez. The 30-year-old native Mexican has a resume of big wins – Dan Hooker, Andre Fili, and B.J. Penn – and his only two losses have come against top flight fighters.

Volkanovski is the deserved favorite, but at +300 there is value in a bet on Rodriguez.

Top Undercard Matches

Robert Whittaker (-375) vs. Dricus du Plessis (+290)

The middleweight title belongs to Israel Adesanya, but both Robert Whittaker and Dricus du Plessis hope to be the one who gets to fight him for the title in Sydney. Win, and a title bout is yours.

Dan Hooker (+225) vs. Jalin Turner (-275)

Finishing is the name of the game for Dan Hooker and Jalin Turner. These two fighters have an 89% finishing rate in their combined 35 wins.

Robbie Lawler (+200) vs. Niko Price (-250)

After 22 years and 29 wins, Robbie Lawler says goodbye to the UFC with one final fight against 15-fight winner, Niko Price.

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MLB All-Star Festivities Taking Shape

by WagerHome Blog on July 3, 2023

Next week the best of Major League Baseball will descend upon the city of Seattle for the Home Run Derby on Monday and the MLB All-Star Game on Tuesday.

We don’t yet have the full list of Home Run Derby participants, but we do know for sure who won’t be there. The Braves Ronald Acuna Jr., the MVP favorite in the National League, says he will skip this event this year.

Acuna said;

“I think there are other players out there that deserve to be a part of it and be showcased.”

He did say, however, that he might participate again in the coming years.

Confirmed Home Run Derby Participants

Julio Rodriguez – Seattle Mariners
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays
Mookie Betts – Los Angeles Dodgers
Randy Arozarena – Tampa Bay Rays
Pete Alonso – New York Mets

The biggest name here is Pete Alonso, who has twice won this event (2019 and 2021) and absolutely loves participating. He will be looking to reclaim the title he lost at Dodger Stadium last year when he was knocked out in the second round by Julio Rodriguez.

Rodriguez lost in the finals last year to Juan Soto, 19-18, but this year he will have the Mariners crowd behind him, and he will be hitting in his home park.

Juan Soto has yet to confirm one way or the other on participating, and neither has current home run leader Shohei Ohtani. The Japanese star and heavy American League MVP favorite participated in the event in 2021 and was knocked out by Juan Soto.

When the full field is announced, the betting odds for the Home Run Derby will be released.

MLB All-Star Rosters

The aforementioned Ohtani headlines the American League roster, making the MLB All-Star team as both a DH and pitcher. He leads the Majors in home runs and RBI as a hitter, and he leads the American League in strikeout rate as a pitcher.

The first-place Rangers have four starters for the A.L., the Rays have two, and joining Ohtani is teammate Mike Trout.

In the National League, eight Atlanta Braves will be on the team, including three starters. The Dodgers have five players, and it’s the fourth straight year they have had at least five.

The biggest snub in the A.L. is Rays shortstop Wander Franco, an exceptional defensive player, and base stealer, and he is second in WAR to just Ohtani. At only 22, he’s going to be an MLB All-Star many times over in his career, but he should be one this year.

The biggest N.L. snub is Fernando Tatis Jr. The Padres have underperformed, and he is coming off a PED suspension, but he also ranks ninth in all of baseball in slugging, and he’s having an MLB All-Star caliber season.

Pay Per Head Software

Betting on the Home Run Derby, the MLB All-Star Game, the All-Star MVP – it all happens next week. Plus, the British Open is coming up, NASCAR every week, and soon the NFL will open training camps.

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Favorites to Win FIFA Women’s World Cup

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Shohei Ohtani’s Team After the Trade Deadline

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Justin Fields – Chicago Bears

4,750 combined passing and rushing yards (+150)

400-plus passing yards in any one game (+225)

New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers: 4000-plus passing yards and Jets make playoffs (+160)

Garrett Wilson: 175-plus receiving yards in any one game (+275)

Dalvin Cook’s Next NFL Team

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win The Open Championship

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Favorites to Win Crayon 301

Best Crayon 301 Bet Outside the Top 10

Pay Per Head Software

Odds to Win the Scottish Open

Pay Per Head Software

Brandon Moreno-Alexandre Pantoja Odds

Volkanovski-Rodriguez Odds

Top Undercard Matches

Robert Whittaker (-375) vs. Dricus du Plessis (+290)

Dan Hooker (+225) vs. Jalin Turner (-275)

Robbie Lawler (+200) vs. Niko Price (-250)

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Confirmed Home Run Derby Participants

MLB All-Star Rosters

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