Take the Dogs Out This MLB Postseason

by Wager Home on October 6, 2019

Betting on baseball during the regular season requires some serious discipline. There are nearly 15 games each day, which can be both a blessing and a curse for bettors. One of the big positives of the 162-game regular season is that bettors can identify trends that translate into betting opportunities. This postseason, like many past postseasons, those trends indicate backing underdogs in the MLB playoffs.

WagerHome is YOUR home for Sportsbook Solutions

WagerHome is YOUR home for Sportsbook Solutions

WagerHome is YOUR home for Sportsbook Solutions

A Little History

Going back to 2005, the underdog won 42.5 percent (15,458-of-20,950) of all MLB regular season games. That number jumps to 44.8 percent, or 210-of-259, in the postseason. Even more interesting is the home underdog. In 119 games since 2005, the home underdog is 61-58. Based upon these numbers alone, bettors can see why backing underdogs can lead to bigger payouts.

The Bounce-Back Theory

The MLB playoffs attract many recreational bettors that incorrectly assume that most playoff series are ones that go “back and forth.” There is a misconception that teams that lose a game will often “bounce back” and simply win the next game. This idea leads to some faulty betting strategies (if you can even call it a strategy).

A serious MLB bettor would be better off backing a team coming off a win than coming off a loss. The numbers prove it. Again going back to 2005, teams that lost the previous game are 172-183 (48.5 percent) in their next game. Teams that won their previous game went on to win 51.1 percent – a record of 179-171 – of the time.

Even more interesting is the underdog coming off a win. While it might be conventional thinking to believe the dog got lucky and is bound to lose, that has not been the case. Underdogs coming off a win have proved a good value going 86-96 (47.3 percent).

Betting Totals

Another strategy for the serious MLB playoff bettor is to back postseason underdogs with high totals. The magic number for totals bettors seems to be 8. With a total of 8 or higher in the postseason, the Under is 110-86. The Over is 132-114 when the total is 7.5 or lower.

It’s also worth noting that underdogs in games where the total is 8.5 or higher are 83-89 since 2003. When the total is 8 or less, dogs are 127-170 during the same time frame. In Game 1 of the Cardinals-Braves series, Atlanta was a home underdog and the Total was set at 8.5. The underdog Braves and the Under were winners as a result of the 3-0 Atlanta victory.

Do not sleep on the Braves when considering your MLB postseason bets

Do not sleep on the Braves when considering your MLB postseason bets

Making It Through the Rest of the Postseason

Bettors looking for the most bang for their buck this MLB postseason should do their best to focus on underdogs. More often than not, MLB playoff teams are evenly matched which tends to favor upsets. Remember, more casual bettors will want to get in on the action at this time of year. That works in the underdogs favor as well.

Recreational bettors tend to put their money on favorites. Doing so can lead to artificially inflated lines, which ends up resulting in higher payouts for the more unpopular underdog. This MLB postseason, takes the dogs out to the park and pad that bankroll.

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Wager HomeTake the Dogs Out This MLB Postseason

Weekly Bookie Betting Report- Oct. 3

by Wager Home on October 3, 2019

October is one of the biggest months of the year for private bookies. All four major US professional leagues are in action along with college football. While the revenue and subsequent profit this month can generate is a major financial boon, managing all the daily and weekly action coming in becomes a much tougher task, but we’re here to give some assistance with our Weekly Bookie Betting Report for Oct. 3.

It is a must win week for some NFL teams

It is a must win week for some NFL teams

This is where a quality pay per head bookie software solutions provider can more than earn the weekly fees they charge for each of your active betting customers. Bookies need to look at each sport as a separate profit center to fully make the most of this unique opportunity. By developing a customer base for each betting opportunity, you will be able to maximize the bottom-line profit for your entire bookmaking operation.

Season-to-Date Football Betting Results

The NFL wrapped up the first quarter of its regular season schedule and the early betting trends still favor the underdogs against the spread with a winning rate of 61.3 percent. The best bet through the first four weeks has been road dogs winning 70 percent of the time. Road teams in general have been a profitable play covering 64.5 percent of their games. Road teams have also won 56.5 percent of their games straight-up.

Underdogs have won close to 42 percent of the time straight-up to add some action to the NFL moneyline bet. The best bet on the total line has been the UNDER with a winning rate of 55.6 percent.

The betting results for the first five weeks of the college football season have been much more stable. While the favorites have won 84.7 percent of their games SU, their winning rate ATS is just 50.8 percent. All the betting trends ATS are just about even with road favorites having the best edge at 53.2 percent. The UNDER has a winning rate of 52.3 percent when it comes to betting the college football total line.

One of the biggest handicapping contests of the NFL season is the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. Last week, the consensus picks road the Kansas City Chiefs with 1463 picks, but they could not cover the seven points in a tight 34-30 road win against Detroit. New England was second on the list with 930 picks but the Patriots failed to cover in a tight 16-10 road win against Buffalo as seven-point favorites.


Early NFL Week 5 Consensus Picks

The early betting consensus for Week 5 in the NFL is back on the 4-0 Patriots at 69 percent as heavy 15.5-point road favorites against the 0-4 Washington Redskins. The 0-4 Arizona Cardinals are a solid bet at 65 percent as three-point road underdogs against the 0-4 Cincinnati Bengals.

Most of the games this week are tight either way with no clear favorite. There are also several “too close to call” scenarios betting the NFL total line.

This Weekend’s Big Betting Games

Can the Rays upset the best team in baseball?

Can the Rays upset the best team in baseball?

All four MLB best-of-five league division series will get underway starting on Thursday. In the American League, the New York Yankees are -220 favorites against the Minnesota Twins. In the other AL series, the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the heavily favored Houston Astros.

The Atlanta Braves are -140 favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals in one NLDS and the Los Angeles Dodgers are -220 favorites against the Washington Nationals in the other NL series.

One of the heaviest bet games in the NFL this Sunday should be the 3-1 Green Bay Packers on the road against the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. on FOX. Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season with the Cowboys set as 3.5 favorites. The total for this key NFC clash has been set at 47 points.

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Wager HomeWeekly Bookie Betting Report- Oct. 3

NFL 2019 Week 4 in Review

by Wager Home on October 1, 2019

There must have been something in the air. Week 4 of the 2019 season was a week full of upsets, some surprising, some not so much. Underdogs were 9-7 in Week 3, and Week 4 watched at eight more dogs pulled out wins. We’ll talk about a lot of it in this week’s NFL 2019 Week 4 in Review.

The Bucs upset of the Rams was one of many in Week 4

The Bucs upset of the Rams was one of many in Week 4

There was also another starting quarterback injury, which could upset the balance of power in the NFC North. If you’re looking for power in your aspiring bookie business, consider a pay per head free trial and put your career on autopilot. Now, back to Week 4.


Upset Special

It all started on Thursday night when Philadelphia went into Green Bay and beat the Packers, who were 3-point favorites, 34-27. It continued over the weekend as we saw some shocking upsets, like the Cleveland Browns who were giving away a touchdown to the Baltimore Ravens.

In Baltimore no less, the Browns Nick Chubb did something not many running backs do against a Ravens defense. He rushed for 165 yards and scored three touchdowns to lead Cleveland to a rather easy 40-25 victory.

A similar surprise occurred in Los Angeles where Tampa Bay really had no business being able to play with the 3-0 Rams. Well, until the game started anyway. The Bucs never trailed and, despite being 9-point road dogs, crushed the Rams 55-40. Tampa Bay joined Carolina, Oakland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and New Orleans as underdogs that won in Week 4.

Cover or Not to Cover

Detroit entered Week 4 unbeaten at 2-0-1 and a 7-point underdog at home against Kansas City. No one would have thought the Lions would have a shot to beat the NFL’s best offense, but they did. If not for a Chiefs touchdown in the final minute, Detroit would have pulled the upset. The Lions did, however, cover the spread losing 34-30.

A similar set of circumstances were found in Buffalo.

Two unbeaten teams – New England and the Bills – met with the home team a 7-point underdog. The Bills gave the Patriots everything they could handle. New England QB Tom Brady had one of the worst days of his career completing 18-of-39 passes for just 150 yards.

If not for four turnovers and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, the Bills might have pulled the upset. Instead, they covered losing 16-10. There is always value to be found when betting football.

The Bills were a great value pick this week

The Bills were a great value pick this week

The Chargers were the week’s biggest favorite as NFL dud Miami was giving 15 points. The Dolphins continued their futility giving up 30 points or more for the fourth straight week while scoring just 10. The 30-10 allowed the Chargers to cover.

In addition to the Chargers, the Giants, Seahawks, Bears, and Steelers all won and covered in Week 4.

QB Injury Bug

The latest starting quarterback to go down was Chicago’s Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears starter was hurt on the sixth play of their game against Minnesota. He suffered a disclocated left shoulder that will not require surgery. The Bears head to London to play Oakland next week, and Trubisky is unlikely to play.

If you have Trubisky on your fantasy team, you may want to readjust your lineup. You may even want to look for another quarterback as Trubisky could miss a few weeks while healing.


Contest Updates

The Westgate Supercontest is beginning to heat up as two contestants are starting to pull away from the rest of the pack. ER @ JAR and TUCO both 5-0 in Week 4 to move to 19-1 overall. The two share the top spot and they also shared the $15,000 1st Quarter Bonus. THE HUMAN FUND, TRAIHP86, and ZAMBUIE EXPRESS each went 5-0 in Week 4 to move to 17-3 overall just behind the leaders.

After three weeks in the Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge, SIRIUS-3 sits alone atop the leaderboard with a 17-3-1 record for 17.50 points. DETROIT LION-1 and MIDNIGHT RUN-1 are tied for second at 17-4-0 (17.00 points).

There are three entrants tied for first place in the Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest. GOLDEN MONKEY, CB ELITE, and augiedawg each have a share of the lead with 13 points.

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Wager HomeNFL 2019 Week 4 in Review