NFL

NFL Awards Biggest Potential Wins

by WagerHome Blog on January 31, 2023

As the NFL takes a week off to get ready for the Super Bowl, let’s check in on their end-of-season awards, and which bets are most likely to cash in.

Most Valuable Player

The biggest NFL award of the night, and heading into this final week of betting, there isn’t a whole lot of doubt that Patrick Mahomes is going to win. He was paying +800 back in August, and the season’s leader in yards and touchdowns is now paying just -750.

Jalen Hurts was voted 2nd NFL Team All-Pro, making him the only other realistic contender, and he’s paying a distant +1500.

Offensive Player of the Year

Often seen as the award for the best offensive player who isn’t a quarterback, there are two non-quarterbacks on the list. Tyreek Hill was a favorite early in the season, but he’s at +1400 today. Justin Jefferson began the season paying +2000, and now he is the huge favorite at -800.

Defensive Player of the Year

NFL

These are regular season awards, so the big game from Chris Jones in the AFC Championship Game does not matter. He is one of the three finalists, but a long shot at +10000.

The favorite is Nick Bosa of the 49ers, going from +1200 in the preseason to -1100 today. Preseason favorite Micah Parson still has a chance at +600. When the season kicked off he was paying +900.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

This is one of the most interesting awards of the year, with three finalists that are all worthy candidates. It comes down to what you think the award means. Does it go to the best player all season long, or the player with the biggest impact?

If it’s the latter then you like Brock Purdy at +700. The 49ers quarterback wasn’t even on the betting boards in August. If you favor a full season of contributions, it’s either Garrett Wilson at -200 or Kenneth Walker at +450.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Aidan Hutchinson of the Lions was the preseason favorite at +500, and he had a very good second half to the season to keep his name in the conversation. But Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner is the first rookie corner to be 1st Team All-Pro in 41 years, and at -1200 he is the runaway favorite. He was paying +1000 when the season began.

Coach of the Year

The NFL favorite is Nick Sirianni at -175, although the Eagles have a loaded roster and were picked to win the NFC by a lot of pundits. Kyle Shanahan is at +300, and deservedly so after the musical chairs he had to play at NFL quarterback. Doug Pederson, from No. 1 draft pick to division champion in just one year, is paying +900.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogNFL Awards Biggest Potential Wins
NFL

NFL Betting Championship Weekend

by WagerHome Blog on January 25, 2023

We had 272 regular season games, there have been ten postseason games, and we are now down to three games left. Two of those three are this Sunday, giving the NFL bettors one last weekend to wager on multiple games.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

The first game on Sunday is for the NFC Championship. This is the third trip to this game in four years for the 49ers, and this is the Eagle’s first NFC Championship appearance since they won the Super Bowl five years ago.

These are the two best teams in the NFC, and this is the matchup that most NFL fans have been hoping to see since the 49ers began their 12-game winning streak. San Francisco has the best scoring defense in the NFL. The Eagles are eighth. The Eagles have the second-best scoring offense in the NFL, while the 49ers are sixth.

On both sides of the ball, it is strength on strength, and on the sidelines, we have two of the finalists for NFL Coach of the Year. In two years, Nick Sirianni has taken the four-win Eagles to a 14-win team that is one win from the Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan twice lost his starting quarterback this season but has his team one win from their second Super Bowl appearance in four years.

This is going to be a classic game between two teams playing at their peaks. But the edge has to go to Philadelphia because quarterback Jalen Hurts played like an MVP. Brock Purdy is just making the ninth start of his career.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5)

The Chiefs avoided total disaster with the injury to Patrick Mahomes in the Divisional Round. It looked like the kind of tackle that resulted in a broken leg. Instead, it was just sprained ankle, albeit of the high ankle sprain variety, which is the most serious of sprained ankles.

Patrick Mahomes will play this Sunday against the Bengals in the rematch of last year’s AFC Championship, won by Cincinnati in overtime. But he will be far less mobile than normal and not quite the Mahomes we’re used to seeing. And this is where having Andy Reid as your head coach is so valuable. If anyone can create a game plan that succeeds with Mahomes staying in the pocket, it is Reid.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals rolled to victory over the Bills last week and are playing excellent football. But the offensive line is banged up, and the Chiefs finished second in the NFL in sacks this season. Where Buffalo failed, the Chiefs will succeed, and Burrow will face just enough pressure to open the door for Kansas City to avenge last year’s loss.

Pay Per Head Software

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Super Bowl

Super Bowl LVII MVP Odds

by WagerHome Blog on January 24, 2023

We won’t know the teams playing in the Super Bowl until around 9:30pm ET on Sunday. But you can currently place wagers on which player will win the Super Bowl MVP, not to be decided until February 12.

Not surprisingly, the four starting quarterbacks lead the way.

Joe Burrow (+330)

Current betting odds have the Eagles as the slight favorites to win the Super Bowl, but the Super Bowl MVP odds lean slightly in favor of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. He is favored to win this Sunday against the Chiefs, and if he is in the Super Bowl, he will be the only quarterback in the game who has been there before.

Jalen Hurts (+350)

 

Super Bowl

His Eagles are favored to beat the 49ers and go to the Super Bowl, and Jalen Hurts is a 2nd Team All-Pro selection. So naturally he would be right on the heels of Burrow as the favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP. And if not for an injury over the final three weeks of the season, he very well could have been the season’s MVP.

Patrick Mahomes +350

Patrick Mahomes is the presumptive MVP after leading the league in passing yards, total yards, passing touchdowns, and total touchdowns. He’s a 1st Team All-Pro for the second time in his career, and he has previously won a Super Bowl MVP.

If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t win the award.

Brock Purdy +750

Niners rookie quarterback Brock Purdy the lowest rated of the four starting quarterbacks because he is the rookie, and the 49ers have so many other possible MVP candidates. Six of the last 10 SB MVPs have been quarterbacks, so Purdy would be the most likely candidate in a San Francisco win. But of all of the four teams, they have the most “other” possibilities.

Non-Quarterback Leaders

The other 49ers that aren’t quarterbacks who might be a Super Bowl MVPs are led by Christian McCaffrey at +1500. He has the shortest odds of everyone who isn’t one of the four starting quarterbacks.

Behind McCaffrey are the best pass catches on each of the four teams: Ja’Marr Chase (+2000), Travis Kelce (+2500), Deebo Samuel (+2800), and A.J. Brown (+3000).

Defensive Leaders

The last defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP was Von Miller in Super Bowl 50. Two years before that, Seahawks linebacker Malcolm Smith won the award, but those two are the defensive players to win in the last 20 years.

Nick Bosa has the shortest odds of any defensive player in this year’s final four at +4000. The only other defensive player within shouting distance is the Chiefs Chris Jones, paying +6000.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogSuper Bowl LVII MVP Odds
Quarterbacks

Where Will the Quarterbacks Go?

by WagerHome Blog on January 19, 2023

The NFL isn’t just from August to February, and the betting on the NFL isn’t limited to just the games on the field. The most important position in sports is quarterback, and with a number of quarterbacks hitting the free agent market this offseason, you can wager on where they will play next season.

Lamar Jackson

The Ravens and Lamar Jackson appear to be headed for a split. Jackson didn’t travel to Cincinnati for the team’s playoff game, even though he was there just one week earlier for the final regular season game. And head coach John Harbaugh has continued to treat the injury to his star as an annoyance.

The franchise tag is still in play, but if Jackson doesn’t play in Baltimore next season, where do the betting odds say he is most likely to go?

New York Jets (+250)
Atlanta Falcons (+350)
Las Vegas Raiders (+750)
Carolina Panthers (+750)

The most intriguing of these is the Atlanta Falcons, who have an offense already built around running quarterback in Marcus Mariota. Jackon to Atlanta would make them the favorites to win the NFC South.

Tom Brady

Quarterbacks
Most people close to Tom Brady think that he will put off retirement for at least another season. They also believe that quarterback Brady and the Buccaneers are likely moving on from one another after a disappointing end to a disappointing season. Where could the GOAT end up in 2023?

Las Vegas Raiders (+250)
New York Jets (+350)
New England Patriots (+500)
Miami Dolphins (+600)
San Francisco 49ers (+700)

Brady’s old offensive coordinator is now the head coach in Las Vegas, and the Jets have said that they are prepared to go all-in on bringing in a veteran quarterback. As places where Brady could win, both the Raiders and Jets make sense. And as a Jets quarterback, he would get to match wits with Bill Belichick twice next season.

Aaron Rodgers

We may have seen the end of Aaron Rodgers in a Green Bay Packers uniform. Either by retirement, or by moving to another team, he certainly is sounding like someone who is tired of playing for the Packers. He said this week that he thinks he can win another MVP award if he is in the right situation. Where might that be?

Las Vegas Raiders (+400)
New York Jets (+500)
Indianapolis Colts (+500)
Tennessee Titans (+500)

With Derek Carr on the way out in Las Vegas, reuniting Rodgers with Davante Adams makes a lot of sense. Rodgers will want a place with established weapons, like Adams and tight-end Darren Waller. He would also find that same with the Jets with rookie Garrett Wilson. Although with Brett Favre having gone from the Packers to the Jets, would Rodgers want to follow those same footsteps?

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogWhere Will the Quarterbacks Go?
nfl

Betting the NFL Divisional Round

by WagerHome Blog on January 17, 2023

Annually it is the best weekend of the year. The fringe playoff teams have been removed from the mix, and only the eight best teams remain, all with the ability to win the NFL Super Bowl.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars spent the first 30 minutes of their Wild Card game against the Chargers looking like a team that had picked No. 1 overall in the last two NFL drafts. They spent the final 30 minutes looking like a team that can pull off an upset in Kansas City. Who shows up this Saturday?

Probably a team that is in-between. We will see a Jacksonville that definitely belongs, and is definitely on the rise, but they simply don’t yet have the consistency of the Chiefs. And especially at Arrowhead. The rested Chiefs get a big NFL day from Patrick Mahomes and win this game by 10 points.

New York Giants (-7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

We’re not going to take it as far as predicting a Giants win, but Daniel Jones has been on a tear since he and the Giants were beaten badly by the Eagles in NFL Week 14, and Jalen Hurts isn’t 100 percent. Just how much pain Hurts’ shoulder is still causing is unclear, but in Week 18 he admitted that he was causing him issues.

The rest of the Eagles team is better than the Giants, and that will be enough to get Philly to the NFC Championship. But look for New York to make it a closer game than expected.

Cincinnati Bengals (+5) at Buffalo Bills

NFL

When the Bengals and Bills were stopped in Week 17, Cincinnati was up 7-3 and Joe Burrow was looking on point. But since then the Bengals have lost two more offensive lineman, and they head into Buffalo more short-handed than in the Monday game that was canceled.

Both NFL teams struggled to put away backup quarterbacks in the Wild Card round, but Josh Allen’s turnovers are becoming a problem. Even with the offensive line issues Burrow will take advantage of that, just like Miami, and Cincinnati will make this a very close game.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

Will the real Dallas Cowboys please stand up? Are they the team that struggled against the Commanders and got beat in Week 18, or the team that blew out the Bucs? They are both, and that is the problem for them in this matchup.

San Francisco has been the most consistent NFL team over the final two months of the season, and on both sides of the ball. Even if the good Cowboys show up, it won’t matter. The 49ers are a machine, and they will cover this spread.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogBetting the NFL Divisional Round
NBA

Top NBA Friday Night Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on January 13, 2023

The NBA is gearing up for a big holiday weekend with seven-afternoon games on Monday for Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Before the league gets to Monday, the weekend begins with nine games on Friday, including a pair of nationally televised Western Conference showdowns on Friday.

This NBA weekend also marks the halfway point of the regular season for most teams, and Friday’s action includes multiple teams battling to get over .500 and stay in the playoff race.

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs (+8.5)

NBA

The defending champion Golden State Warriors are (20-21) as they head to Texas for a nationally televised Friday night game against the San Antonio Spurs (13-29).The Warriors have struggled on the road this season with a 3-16 record, and they are 18-22-1 ATS on the season. The Spurs are 21-21 ATS, but just 8-14 at home, and they enter Friday’s game on a three-game losing streak.

San Antonio is 5-22 against Western Conference teams, including a 37-point loss to the Warriors in November. Golden State has Steph Curry back in the lineup, and with two days off since Tuesday’s loss, he should be good to play against the Spurs. Look for the Warriors to win, but the Spurs cover the number.

Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz (-5.5)

The Orlando Magic (16-26) are on the tail end of a five-game road trip as they get ready to take on the Utah Jazz (21-23). So far on their trip out west, the Magic are 2-1 with wins over Golden State and Portland. They are 6-14 on the road overall and 22-19-1 ATS, while the Jazz are 24-10 ATS and 8-16 at home.

Orlando has scored at least 109 points in five straight games, but the Jazz rank third in the league in scoring at 117.3 ppg. Look for this one to be a race to 120 points as it sails over the 232.5 total points.

Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings (-9.5)

These NBA teams are headed in opposite directions as the Houston Rockets (10-31) have lost eight in a row while the Sacramento Kings (22-18) have won five of eight. The Kings lead the NBA in scoring, averaging 119.2 ppg, and they shoot nearly 50% from the field. Sacramento has topped 130 points in three straight games, and they’ve scored at least 110 in eight of their last 10.

Meanwhile, the Rockets rank 29th in scoring (109.2 ppg), and they allow 116.3 ppg, which is in the bottom five in the NBA. They have allowed at least 130 points in two of their last three games and have lost by double digits six times during their losing streak.

The Kings should win this game based on the way the teams have played the last two weeks; look for them to cover a double-digit spread.

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WagerHome BlogTop NBA Friday Night Betting Picks

NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on January 10, 2023

The NFL regular season is behind us and now the path to Super Bowl LVII begins with all eyes on State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on the second Sunday in February. Over the next three weekends the NFL will whittle down from 14 playoff teams to two Super Bowl contestants.

The playoffs begin this weekend with six games, spread out over three days for Wild Card Weekend. Four of the six home teams are favorites this weekend, with the two Florida teams Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, as underdogs.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

The first game of the weekend could be the biggest mismatch in the NFC. Seattle was the last team in, and they needed help as Detroit beat Green Bay in the last game of the regular season. Their reward is a trip to face NFC West rival, San Francisco, quite possibly the hottest team in the NFL.

The 49ers beat Seattle twice this season, 27-7 at home in Week 2 and 21-13 on the road in Week 15. San Francisco has won 10 in a row and despite a rookie third-string quarterback in Brock Purdy, they are thriving. A lights-out defense and multiple playmakers like Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle lead the Niners to a cover.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1)

The Jaguars are one of the two home underdogs, as they won the AFC South on Saturday with a late defensive touchdown. The Chargers have been up and down all season, mostly because of key injuries, but they have won four of their last five to make the playoffs.

Jacksonville has won five in a row, and they throttled the Chargers 38-10 on the road back in September. Don’t be surprised if Trevor Lawrence and his young crew pull off the upset and move on.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)

No offense to the Miami Dolphins, but they have no chance in this game. The atmosphere in Buffalo is going to be insane, the temperature is going to be in the low 20’s with snow possible, and if Damar Hamlin makes an appearance to inspire the Bills, this one will get out of hand early.

Buffalo could become America’s team this month. Look for a big cover against a team they split with in the regular season.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

NFL

Another regular season rematch as the Giants head to Minnesota. The Vikings needed a last-second 61-yard field goal to beat New York on Dec. 17. The Giants put 445 yards on the Minnesota defense that has allowed at least 24 points in four of the last five games.

Minnesota is 11-0 in one-score games, but they have a horrible playoff history, even at home. Take the points with the visiting Giants.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

Another division rivalry with a third game of the season in the playoffs. The Ravens won at home in October 19-17, while the Bengals won at home last week 27-16 to clinch the division. Joe Burrow and company are ready to prove last year wasn’t a fluke, and their path back to the Super Bowl starts with a team they know very well.

Betting on this game all revolves around the health of Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson. If he is playing, the line will likely come down, and if not, the Bengals roll.

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

Tampa Bay started the season with a win in Dallas, 19-3 as Dak Prescott was injured. The Cowboys are limping into the playoffs with a loss to Washington, and Prescott has thrown 15 interceptions on the season, despite missing five games.

When it all comes down to it are you betting against Tom Brady, at home, in the playoffs? No chance. Take the points and the Bucs against a Cowboys team that has plenty left to prove.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Picks
Football

NCAA Football National Title Game Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on January 6, 2023

Nearly five months after the college football season began, there’s just one game left to play, the National Championship game. The No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs are on a mission to repeat after their late rally against Ohio State in the semifinals. The No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs stand in their way after upsetting Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.

Monday’s National football Championship Game will be played at a neutral site in Los Angeles, at SoFi Stadium. With a spread of 13.5 points in favor of Georgia, this game has one of the largest spreads in recent title games.

TCU on Upset Run

The Horned Frogs began the season unranked and with better than 1500-1 odds to win the football title. A win on Monday would go down as one of the biggest upsets in college football history and rival the largest preseason underdogs to win a title in any sport.

To keep their run going, TCU has to find a way to force turnovers like they did against Michigan. A blocked kick, fumble recovery or pick-six can flip the momentum early and put Georgia on their heels.

Michigan’s football defense doesn’t allow many yards on the ground, but Ohio State showed TCU how to attack the Bulldogs through the air. TCU running back Kendre Miller was injured against Michigan though they are hopeful he will be 100%.

Duggan gets rid of the football quickly, and he will need to as the Bulldogs racked up four sacks against Ohio State, even without pass-rusher Nolan Smith. Duggan ranks 28th in the nation in completed passes down the field, but the Heisman runner-up was picked off twice against Michigan, something he must avoid on Monday.

TCU’s football defense isn’t great, and they gave up more than 550 yards to Michigan. The Horned Frogs play a 3-3-5 defense, and Georgia completed nearly 70% of their passes this season against five DB’s.

 

Bulldogs on a Repeat Mission

Stetson Bennett sure does save his best for the big games. Last year he threw for 537 yards and five touchdowns in the two playoff games, with no interceptions. In Saturday’s semifinal, he led the comeback over Ohio State with 398 yards and three passing touchdowns, including the game-winning score with 54 seconds left.

The Georgia running backs and offensive line can go to work against the Horned Frogs defense. Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards combined for 128 yards against Ohio State on 13 carries, and Mcintosh added four catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Georgia didn’t stick to the run as they trailed the Buckeyes, but if they can get the ground game going early, they can control the clock and the game.

Georgia’s defense has been uncharacteristic in their last two games, with 30 points allowed against LSU and 41 against Ohio State. On the season, they have allowed just 12.8 ppg and 77 rushing ypg. Even without Smith, they have enough talent to get things back on track on defense and suffocate the Horned Frogs offense.

Game Scripts Dictate Props

You can offer plenty of fun props on the national title game. If Georgia controls the clock and the running game, their passing totals will be low, and that also means TCU will be impatient on offense and throw more. However, if Georgia falls behind like they did against OSU and they run the ball less than 20 times, their passing game props will skyrocket.

Miller is the closest thing to an automatic touchdown for either team, as he found the endzone 17 times on the season. McIntosh has 12 touchdowns, but no one else on either team has gone for more than six touchdowns this season. Touchdown props can be another fun market to create props and bets for a game like this.

UGA Repeats in Big Way

All the numbers here point towards Georgia winning and being in control for the entire game. A 20-point win wouldn’t be a surprise at all, as the Bulldogs have been here before, won big games over ranked teams, and they have the superior talent at nearly every position.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football National Title Game Betting Preview

NFL Week 18 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on January 3, 2023

One more week of regular season football, and three playoff spots have still yet to be handed out. Eight NFL teams have a chance to win one of those spots.

It’s put up or shut up in the final week of the regular season.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)

The scenario is simple for this game. Win, and you win the division. In fact, that scenario has been in place for a couple of weeks. The Titans rested a number of their NFL players last week in preparation for the win-and-in game in Jacksonville.

At the most important position on the NFL field, however, no amount of resting can help Tennessee. They are down to a third-string quarterback in Joshua Dobbs, and the Jaguars are getting great NFL play from Trevor Lawrence. At home, the Jags win by more than a touchdown and cover the spread.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

When December began, the Packers were 4-8, and people were calling for the end of the Aaron Rodgers era. Now that we are in January, the Packers are 8-8 and in control of their own playoff destiny. Beat the Lions on Sunday night, and the No. 7 seed in the NFC is theirs.

For the Lions, they too, can get in with a win in this game and help against the Seahawks. If the Rams beat Seattle, and Detroit wins in Lambeau, they are the No. 7 seed. Sadly that is unlikely to happen for Lions fans. Detroit is a very different NFL team on the road, and Green Bay will win and cover.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Speaking of those Seahawks, they actually play before the Packers play, so they will do whatever they can to win, even if it is a win without a playoff appearance as a reward. But the Rams also want to win. Beating their rivals, ending the season on a high note, and finding out if there really could be a future with Baker Mayfield are all things on the agenda.

It won’t matter. The 12th man in Seattle will bring it, and at home, the Seahawks will win by a touchdown.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (Pick‘em)

The New York Jets have played themselves out of the playoffs with five straight losses. The Dolphins have almost played themselves out of the playoffs with five losses of their own.

If the Patriots win on Sunday, they are in the playoffs. But if New England loses, and the Dolphins win with a backup quarterback, they are the AFC’s final Wild Card team.

It’s a pick’em, and considering the stakes, we’re picking the Dolphins at home.

Pay Per Head Software

If you are an independent bookmaker hoping to see an uptick in your weekly take come NFL playoff time, this is the best week of the year to join forces with a top pay per head software provider like WagerHome.com.

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