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Final Four NCAA Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on March 30, 2022

If you love the traditional powers of college basketball, this is your dream Final Four.

The first coach at Kansas was the inventor of basketball, James Naismith. North Carolina plays its games in the Dean Smith Center, who played at Kansas before becoming a Hall of Fame coach in Chapel Hill.

Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is the winningest coach in college basketball history. And at Villanova, two-time National Champion Jay Wright is also a Hall of Fame head coach.

It’s the battle of the blue bloods on the bayou.

No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 1 Kansas (-4.5)

If there is a cloud hanging over the Final Four this weekend, it’s the injury suffered by Villanova guard Justin Moore. He tore his Achilles in an Elite Eight win over Houston, and he is out. It’s a big loss for a team that primarily uses a six-man rotation.

In steps, senior Caleb Daniels, who will likely start in Moore’s place. Daniels had 12 points against Houston in the last round, and he has come up huge for the Wildcats in big games this season. He scored 20 in a two-point win over Providence to begin March and added 19 in a one-point win over St. John’s in the Big East Tournament.

Kansas has its own sixth man leading the way in Remy Martin, who was just named Midwest Region Most Outstanding Player. He scored 20 against Creighton and 23 against Providence, and he, along with Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun, give Kansas the most talented trio of guards in the country.

However, as good as Kansas is, they are average against the spread. The Jayhawks are 19-19 overall ATS and just 2-2 in the NCAA Tournament. Villanova is 20-15-2 ATS on the season and a perfect 4-0 in the tournament.

No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 2 Duke (-4)

Duke and North Carolina have been battling on the court for over a century, but for the first time in the rivalry’s 257-game history, they are meeting in the NCAA Tournament.

That by itself would make this a game for the ages. But for this Final Four matchup, we get the added storyline of Mike Krzyzewski, the winningest coach in the history of college basketball and in the history of the NCAA Tournament, coaching in his last of 13 career Final Fours.

As for the young men who are chasing their NCAA championship dreams, North Carolina is led by the trio of Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, and Brady Manek. For Duke, its future NBA first-round picks Paolo Banchero, Mark Williams, and AJ Griffin.

Against the spread, North Carolina is 4-0 in the NCAA Tournament and has covered in eight of its last nine. Duke has covered in three straight but failed to cover in the five games before that.

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Valero Texas Open Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 29, 2022

The PGA Tour is in Texas for the Valero Texas Open, a final tournament before the Masters, and look for there to be plenty of late-round drama. Not all of the tickets to the Masters have been given out, and if a non-Masters invitee wins this weekend, he will suddenly have new travel plans to make.

It happened in the most dramatic fashion three years ago when Corey Conners qualified for the Valero Texas Open on the Monday before the tournament and then won it, playing the following weekend at the biggest event in American golf.

So keep an eye on the final Sunday groups and who might have added incentive and added pressure over the last few holes.

Favorites to Win Valero Texas Open

Rory McIlroy (+800)
Jordan Spieth (+1400)
Corey Conners (+1800)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)
Abraham Ancer (+2000)
Bryson DeChambeau (+2800)
Si-Woo Kim (+3500)
Tony Finau (+3500)
Keegan Bradley (+3500)
Chris Kirk (+3500)
Maverick McNealy (+3500)
Adam Hadwin (+3500)
Gary Woodland (+3500)

Most of the world’s best are skipping this final tune-up before the Masters, but favorite Rory McIlroy is here. He’s won the U.S. Open, The British Open, and the PGA Championship, but his best-ever finish in Augusta was fourth in 2015. He played the Valero Texas Open just once before, in 2013, and he finished second.

Jordan Spieth was the winner at the Masters in 2015, the same year that McIlroy finished fourth. The native Texan was the winner at this event in 2021. At the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship last week, Spieth finished 35th.

The aforementioned Corey Conners, a winner here in 2019, is coming off a great third-place showing at the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship. Two tournaments before that, he was 11th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Best Value Bets

At +3500, you should give Chris Kirk a look. He finished T5 at the Arnold Palmer, T7 at the Honda Classic, and T14 at the Phoenix Open.

To go along with his great play over the last two months, he has three top-10 finishes at the Texas Open. A win here would net you a tidy sum and put Kirk in the Masters for the first time since 2016.

Another golfer at +3500 deserving of consideration is Gary Woodland. He had T5s at both the Arnold Palmer and Honda Classic, and last year at the Valero Texas Open, he finished with a T6.

If you’re really feeling it, Luke List is paying +5000. He’s not been good since his win at Torrey Pines two months ago, but he does have that win, and he was inside the top-20 at this tournament last year.

Pay Per Head Software

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NCAA Men’s Sweet 16 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on March 23, 2022

The first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament saw its share of upsets, but as the Sweet 16 tips off, there are still plenty of great basketball teams remaining in the field and great games for us to place wagers.

Thursday – March 24

No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (-8.5)

Yes, the top-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs were pushed to the brink by Memphis and actually trailed at halftime before a furious second-half comeback. But they did make that comeback, and they are simply going to be too much for Arkansas.

The Razorbacks don’t have the same athleticism that Memphis does, and the going in this round is going to be easier for Gonzaga because of it. Look for the No. 1 seed to cover the spread and advance.

No. 11 Michigan (+5) vs. No. 2 Villanova

In San Antonio, four years after Villanova beat Michigan there to claim the National Championship, these two teams are back, meeting for just the fourth time in history.

Villanova got over on Michigan then, and they are likely to do it again on Thursday. But the one-time sixth-ranked Wolverines are enjoying their role as underdogs, and they will keep this game close. The Wildcats experience wins in the end but look for Michigan to play tough and cover.

Friday – March 25

No. 15 St. Peter’s (+12.5) vs. No. 3 Purdue

Would it be crazy to bet on St. Peter’s to beat Purdue outright and make it to the Elite Eight?

Yes. Yes, that would be crazy. But what isn’t crazy is to think that Cinderella, after knocking off Kentucky and Murray St., can play the Boilermakers tough.

The game is in Philadelphia, just down the road from the St. Peter’s campus, and thousands of fans who had never heard of St. Peter’s a week ago will be in the arena and pulling for the Peacocks.

Purdue is too much, and the Cinderella story ends, but it will be a good game, and St. Peter’s has an excellent chance to cover.

No. 11 Iowa State (+2.5) vs. No. 10 Miami

A year ago, Iowa State had just two wins and were completely shut out in Big 12 play. Now they have the fifth-best defense in the country, allowing just 88.5 points per 100 possessions, and they force turnovers at the fourth-best rate in the country.

Miami has three good scoring guards in Charlie Moore, Kameron McGusty, and Isaiah Wong, but the Hurricane defense is abysmal.

They give up an FG rate of 52.9%, which ranks 298th in the country. That Miami deficiency, combined with Iowa State’s great defense, will help the Cyclones cover this spread and possibly win outright.

Pay Per Head Software

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2022 World Golf Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 22, 2022

March is known for its tournament brackets and single-elimination head-to-heads, and it’s not just for college basketball. The golf world takes a pause from its usual format to play its own tournament bracket at the 2022 World Golf Championship.

It’s 64 of the world’s top players going head-to-head at the Austin Country Club, just 83 miles up the road from the AT&T Center in San Antonio, where a pair of Sweet 16 games will be played. And just as with all of the college basketball games this weekend, golf has its favorites, its underdogs, and its Cinderellas.

Favorites to Win 2022 World Golf Championship

Jon Rahm (+1400)
Justin Thomas (+1600)
Viktor Hovland (+1800)
Collin Morikawa (+2000)
Scottie Scheffler (+2000)
Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
Dustin Johnson (+2200)
Xander Schauffele (+2500)
Billy Horschel (+2800)
Daniel Berger (+2800)
Jordan Spieth (+2800)

Tournament Format

Beginning on Wednesday and going through Friday, the field of 64 is split into 16 seeded groups of four golfers each. And over those three days, each player in the group will play a match against each of the other three players. One point is awarded for a match win, and a half-point is awarded for a match tie.

The top point getter in each group advances to the single-elimination round of 16, to be played Saturday morning, with the quarterfinals to be played Saturday afternoon. Sunday morning is the semifinals, and by Sunday evening, we will have a 2022 World Golf Championship champion.

Best Bets to Win

Jon Rahm is the best golfer in the world, and he’s also done well at this event. In 2018 he was the runner-up here in Austin, and in 2019 he finished fifth.

Billy Horschel is the defending champion, and last year when he won, he was paying +8000. He’s down to +2800 this year, but that’s still good value for a golfer who does well on this course and in this format.

Scottie Scheffler (+2000) was the runner-up to Horschel in 2021, so he, too, feels comfortable on this course and in this format. He also has the added feature of being the hottest golfer in the world right now. Scheffler was the winner at the Phoenix Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational and sandwiched a T7 at The Genesis between those two victories.

Sergio Garcia has never won this event, but he is terrific in match play. He’s made it to at least the round of 16 nine times at Austin, including the quarterfinals a year ago, making his +5000 payday an attractive flier.

Also at +5000 is Kevin Kisner, who just finished fourth at The PLAYERS. He also had a T3 at the Sony Open, but most importantly, he finished second at this event in 2018 and then won it in 2019.

Pay Per Head Software

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NCAA Tournament First Round Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on March 16, 2022

Not to take anything away from the First Four and their claims to the NCAA Tournament, but real March Madness bettors know that the action doesn’t truly gets started until Thursday and Friday when we get 32 first-round games in 36 hours and the guarantee of at least five crazy upsets and four amazing buzzer-beaters.

No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (+6.5)

We all know there is going to be at least one No. 12 seed to get a win in the first round. Since the field was expanded in 1985 and 12 seeds were added to the mix, they have won 51 games, including 17 games since 2010.

This year’s 12-seed to keep an eye is New Mexico State. The Aggies play great defense, and in all four games in which they were the underdog this season, they won the game outright. UConn is just 3-11 in their last 14 against the spread, and this Thursday’s game has all the makings of a New Mexico State upset.

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 St. Peter’s (+17.5)

We’re not going to go crazy over St. Peter’s and pick them to win this NCAA Tournament game. Kentucky is one of the favorites to win the entire tournament for a reason. And normally, a 17.5 spread wouldn’t be too much for a No. 2 seed in the first round, but St. Peter’s isn’t a normal opponent.

The Peacocks have won seven straight games and play good, slow-tempo defense. They won’t have the offense to seriously challenge Kentucky for the win, but their pace of play and forced turnovers will keep this game under 17.5.

No. 5 Houston (-8.5) vs. No. 12 UAB

Another 12-seed getting love is UAB because of their nearly 80 points per game and seven straight wins heading into Friday’s game. Don’t get caught up in the hype.

Houston is one of the best teams in the country, playing some of the best defense anywhere in college basketball, and for some reason, this team has fallen out of favor with some bettors.

They win by an average margin of 17 points, and as the Cougars have done in seven of their last eight games, they will cover this spread.

No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Iowa State (+4.5)

Iowa State racked up a number of losses at the end of the season, but losing to the likes of Baylor, and covering, isn’t as bad as the record looks. The Cyclones, when they’re going, can play excellent basketball.

But really, this pick is about LSU and the turmoil at the top. The Tigers struggled down the stretch even before they fired head coach Will Wade, but now they are a mess and primed for a first-round struggle.

Pay Per Head Software

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Valspar Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 15, 2022

The majority of the PGA Tour takes a breather this weekend after an extra-long five-day PLAYERS Championship was completed at Sawgrass over the weekend. For those in the field both last week and this, like betting favorite Justin Thomas, it’s just two off-days, then back at it at the Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida.

The field, however, isn’t completely bare. There are 20 of the top 50 golfers in the world teeing it up at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club, taking advantage of one of the final tuneups before we head to Augusta, Georgia, in three weeks.

Favorites to Win the Valspar Championship

Justin Thomas (+900)
Viktor Hovland (+1100)
Collin Morikawa (+1100)
Dustin Johnson (+1400)
Xander Schauffele (+1800)
Paul Casey (+1800)
Louis Oosthuizen (+1800)
Tyrrell Hatton (+2200)
Shane Lowry (+2200)
Sam Burns (+2200)

Looking at the favorite, Justin Thomas, some bettors might be scared off by his T33 at the PLAYERS last weekend. But already this season, he has five finishes T8 or better, and last year at the Valspar, he was T13. He’s playing solid golf, and he’s the best overall golfer in the field.

The player right behind Thomas on the favorites board might be the hottest player in the world, Norway’s Viktor Hovland. He’s ranked third in the world, he finished T9 at Sawgrass, he was T2 the week before that at the Arnold Palmer, and he was T4 at Riviera. That’s three straight top-10 finishes for a golfer who finished third at the Valspar last year, his one and only previous time playing this event.

If you prefer to focus on course history, there are two former winners among these top-10 favorites. Sam Burns, paying +2200, is the current defending champion. He shot a -17 last year, one off the Valspar Championship record, and won by three strokes.

Paul Casey, paying +1800, won back-to-back the two years prior to Burns. He’s also coming off a third-place finish at The PLAYERS, which pairs nicely with a T15 at The Genesis.

Longer Shots Worth a Look

If you’re looking to take a flier on a good value play, give Jason Kokrak a thought. He’s paying +4000 for a tournament win, and in his last three starts at the Valspar, he has finished eighth, second, and 13th. Prior to that run, he also had a seventh-place finish in 2015.

Adam Hadwin, at +6600, is paying even longer odds, and he’s an actual winner at the Valspar Championship. He held on to win by one stroke in 2017 after entering the final round with a four-stroke lead. He’s also coming off a T9 at Sawgrass.

Pay Per Head Software

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Ruoff Mortgage 500 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 9, 2022

We are in for another exciting race, Ruoff Mortgage 500. We’ve had three official races of the 2022 Cup season and three different winners, with Alex Bowman holding off Kyle Larson in the closing seconds last week to take home the win and keep Larson from winning for a second consecutive week.

But even more topsy-turvy than the rotating champions is what we’ve seen out of the top-10 here in the early going of this year. Through three races, we’ve had 25 different drivers finish in the top-10. That is the most through three races since 1973, and only five drivers off from the maximum possible of 30 drivers in three races.

Here today, gone tomorrow, has been the theme since Daytona.

Favorites to Win Ruoff Mortgage 500

Kyle Larson (+360)
Martin Truex, Jr. (+700)
Kyle Busch (+700)
Joey Logano (+800)
Denny Hamlin (+800)
Chase Elliott (+800)
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
William Byron (+1400)
Kevin Harvick (+2000)
Alex Bowman (+2500)
Tyler Reddick (+2500)

Kyle Larson nearly won his second race of the season last week in Las Vegas, and he is the favorite to get it done this weekend in Phoenix. He is the best driver in NASCAR, but he’s also been one of the best in Phoenix. He has finished no worse than sixth place in his last six races here, and this was the site of his championship win last November.

At nearly double the payday, if you want to bet one of the favorites, Kyle Busch has the much better value. Sure, he’s chasing Larson as the best driver, and there’s no question that Larson is No. 1. But Busch has three wins in Phoenix, eight other top-five finishes, and a total of 22 top-10 finishes on the D-shaped oval.

Longer Shots to Consider

Yes, it feels like the Hudson Hornet was the king of NASCAR cars the last time Kevin Harvick won a race, but never discount him in Phoenix, and definitely don’t do it when he’s paying +2000.

His nine career wins in Phoenix are an incredible six more than any other active driver, and he currently has a 17-race streak of top-10 finishes at this raceway. In 12 of those 17 races, he finished in the top five.

At +3000, you might want to give Christopher Bell a look. He’s only raced at Phoenix four times, but his last two starts here were top-10 finishes.

He also finished top-10 in Las Vegas a week ago, and led for 32 laps of the race. That is a good sign that Bell may be ready to break into the victory column for the first time in more than a year.

Pay Per Head Software

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The Players Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 8, 2022

Outside of Pebble Beach and Augusta, there may be no more recognizable course than the Pete Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass, the home of The Players Championship. Even if you’ve never actually played the course, without question, you have pictured yourself trying to hit the famous “Island Green” on 17.

And not only is the course great, the field is packed each and every year. At $20 million, it has the highest prize fund of any tournament in the world, it regularly attracts the full complement of top-50 players in the world, and it is often referred to as the PGA Tour’s unofficial fifth major.

But as good as the field is, The Players has never produced a repeat champion. Six players have won more than once – Jack Nicklaus, Fred Couples, Steve Elkington, Hal Sutton, Davis Love III, and Tiger Woods – but none of them won consecutively.

Favorites to win The Players Championship

Jon Rahm (+800)
Rory McIlroy (+1400)
Justin Thomas (+1400)
Collin Morikawa (+1600)
Viktor Hovland (+2000)
Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
Dustin Johnson (+2200)
Xander Schauffele (+2200)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
Cameron Smith (+2500)

Jon Rahm has finished in the top-three in two of his six starts in 2022, and he’s been in the top-10 in three of them. He has yet to post a win this year, but he’s the betting favorite at next month’s Masters, and he is the betting favorite here. For the record, in each of the tournaments he has played in 2022, Rahm has been on top of the favorites board.

Collin Morikawa has only played this event once, and he finished 41st. But he hasn’t finished worse than seventh in any event in 2022, and he’s got the exact kind of form you would expect from a future champion at Sawgrass.

Longshots to Consider

Sergio Garcia is past his prime, but at +8000, he is definitely worth a look. He’s a veteran of this course, having played it 21 times.

And last year, he actually had a two-shot lead following Thursday’s opening round before eventually finishing ninth on Sunday. He also rarely misses the cut, meaning that your +8000 bet should be around to make some noise in the final round.

Another longshot odds-wise is Brian Harman, paying +10000. But he only looks like a longshot on the favorites board. He finished T3 at The Players last year and T9 in 2019.

And this year, he has a T3 at The American Express to go along with a 14th place finish at the Phoenix Open. Good play at Sawgrass, good form this year, and a huge payday if he wins. What’s not to like?

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Pennzoil 400 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 3, 2022

We had an unexpected winner at Daytona, with Austin Cindric taking the checkered flag at the Daytona 500 as a rookie. He was 20th in the favorites board and paid +3100.

Last week at Wise Power 400, things returned to normal, with Kyle Larson winning the race and joining mainstays Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski and winners in 2022.

From Fontana, California, we go to Las Vegas, Nevada, and the Pennzoil 400, and not surprisingly, the betting world loves Larson to win again.

Favorites to Win Pennzoil 400

Kyle Larson (+350)
Chase Elliott (+700)
Joey Logano (+800)
Denny Hamlin (+800)
Ryan Blaney (+850)
Kyle Busch (+1000)
William Byron (+1200)
Martin Truex, Jr. (+1400)
Tyler Reddick (+1500)
Kevin Harvick (+1500)

Larson won this race a year ago and is coming off the win last week. Of course, he is the heavy favorite.

Joey Logano was a winner this year in Los Angeles and has two wins in Las Vegas, including two years ago. In the last six races in Las Vegas, Logo has led 15% of the laps and has four top-10 finishes to go along with his two wins. Overall he has 17 career starts in Vegas and has finished in the top-5 a total of six times.

Logano finished fifth last week in Fontana.

Like Logano, Denny Hamlin is paying +800, and he has a solid history in Las Vegas. At the race here last September, he was the winner, leading for 137 laps.

He was fourth at the Pennzoil 400 last March, and in September of 2020, he finished third. Overall, Hamlin has nine top-10 finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Value Bets to Consider

Jumping off the board is Brad Keselowski paying +2500. He was second in Las Vegas a year ago, and three previous times in Las Vegas, he has taken the checkered flag.

He’s finished in the top-10 in 12 of his last 13 Las Vegas starts, and eight of those starts had him finishing in the top-five. Keselowski also won the first of the Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona three weeks ago. Why he is only listed at +2500 is a mystery.

Daytona 500 winner Austin Cindric is paying +3000. He doesn’t have experience in Las Vegas, but that didn’t stop him in Daytona.

And while that win might have been flukey, he is a quality driver and followed it up with a 12th place finish in Fontana. He also had a nice showing at the L.A. Coliseum.

One last value play to look at is Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. at +6000. His most recent form in Las Vegas has been spotty, but it includes a third-place finish two years ago and a sixth-place finish in 2019.

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2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 1, 2022

Right now, the PGA Tour is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get. And the same can be said for the upcoming tournament, the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Over the last five weeks, we have seen four first-time winners, and yes, that is a very unusual pace. We’ve played eight total tournaments in 2022, and in 2021 a total of 25 tournaments were played before there were four first-time winners.

So looking at the past can only get us so far in predicting who wins each week and who wins this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in Orlando.

Favorites to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational

Jon Rahm (+750)
Rory McIlroy (+1000)
Scottie Scheffler (+1600)
Viktor Hovland (+1800)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000)
Sung-Jae Im (+2200)
Will Zalatoris (+2500)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
Tyrrell Hatton (+2800)
Marc Leishman (+2800)

As is the case with any tournament that he enters, Jon Rahm is the favorite. He doesn’t have a win in 2022, but the six-time PGA Tour winner has three top-10 finishes this year and has twice finished in the top-five.

It’s Rahm’s first-ever visit to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but Rory McIlroy is making his eighth straight appearance. He won in 2018 and has top-10 finishes in 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Two weeks ago, McIlroy played his first and only tournament of 2022 and finished T10 at the Genesis Invitational.

Third on the board is Scottie Scheffler, one of those four first-time winners we’ve had recently. He won at Phoenix and then followed that up with T7 at Riviera. He played the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2020 and finished 15th.

Best Value Bets

In the vein of first-time winners, Will Zalatoris is striking the ball well, and most of the golfing world thinks he’s overdue for his first win. He finished T6 at The American Express and second at the Farmers Insurance Open, and most importantly, he is paying +2500.

Adam Scott is paying +3500, and along with that big potential payday, he brings solid play of late and a good history at Bay Hill. He played strong golf at the Genesis two weeks ago, shooting a 66 in the final round and finishing T4. At the Arnold Palmer, he has a pair of third-place finishes, with the first coming in 2004 and the second coming in 2014.

At +5000, take a look at Jason Kokrak. He finished 2021 strong with a win at the Houston Open. He had a T17 at the Sony Open in January and was undone by a tough final round at Riviera. Before the final 18, he was tied for 12th. Last year at the Arnold Palmer, he finished in eighth, which was his fourth top-10 finish at this event.

Pay Per Head Software

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No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 1 Kansas (-4.5)

No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 2 Duke (-4)

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Valero Texas Open

Best Value Bets

Pay Per Head Software

Thursday – March 24

Friday – March 25

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win 2022 World Golf Championship

Tournament Format

Best Bets to Win

Pay Per Head Software

No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (+6.5)

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 St. Peter’s (+17.5)

No. 5 Houston (-8.5) vs. No. 12 UAB

No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Iowa State (+4.5)

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win the Valspar Championship

Longer Shots Worth a Look

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Favorites to Win Ruoff Mortgage 500

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