NFL Week 4 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 28, 2022

After three weeks, we are down to just two 3-0 NFL teams, the Eagles and Dolphins. And, of course, the Dolphins remained unbeaten because they handed the favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Buffalo Bills, their first loss of the season.

Just another week of the greatest reality show on earth, and we get them every week for the next four months.

Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints

The Vikings and Saints, two Jekyll and Hyde teams, play just down the road from the offices of Dr. Henry Jekyll in London.

We thought the Saints were good, but they just gave the Carolina Panthers their first win of the season. We think the Vikings are good and other than a loss at Philadelphia, they have been.

It’s a national broadcast, but it isn’t in prime time, so we’re going to go with Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense to cover the field goal spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

The Eagles are blowing teams out, and if this was a month ago, we might think that the 6.5-point spread was an easy cover for Jalen Hurts and the best team in the NFC.

But the Jags have won two straight, including their first road win since 2019, and in each of those wins, they were underdogs.

We’re not going to predict a Jags win, but at almost a touchdown, we like the Jags to cover this NFL spread. Until bookmakers start giving Jacksonville the respect they’ve earned, keep riding them to wins.

NFL

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (Over 51.5)

The Bills’ offense managed just 17 points last week, but they gained 497 yards. In comparison, when the Ravens gave up 42 points to Miami, they allowed 547 yards. Even against the struggling Patriots offense, Baltimore allowed 447 yards and 26 points.

It’s Josh Allen, at the top of his game, vs. Lamar Jackson, who is at the top of his game, and while the Bills (-3) is a tough call, going OVER 51.5 feels like a really solid NFL play.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

The 49ers always play the Rams tough, but did you see Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday against the Broncos? Denver has a very good defense, but you can see why general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan tried to move on from Jimmy G this NFL season.

The Rams have yet to put it together for one complete game, but that game is coming. And if you can get the Rams as underdogs against a team that has failed to break 10 points in two of three NFL games, you do it. Take L.A. and the points.

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NCAA Football Week 5 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 27, 2022

It’s only September, and yet another NCAA football team is looking for a new head coach, with Georgia Tech dismissing Geoff Collins after their 1-3 start. Last week’s 27-10 loss to UCF was the final straw, but his 10-28 record in what was his fourth year put the writing on the wall since the season began.

As for the good in Week 4, the Tennessee Volunteers are back into the top 10 for just the second time in 16 years. Kansas State returned to the Top 25 after beating Oklahoma, 41-34.

We are now on to NCAA football Week 5 and the best bets of the weekend.

No. 4 Michigan (-10.5) at Iowa

An easy month of September for Michigan ended with a bit of down turn in their performance against Maryland, and will that carry over into their first game of October? It’s Michigan’s first NCAA football game on the road, and Iowa does have an excellent defense.

Iowa’s offense, however, is not good. The Hawkeyes might keep this game close into the second half, but look for Michigan to cover the spread by the end.

No. 10 North Carolina State (+6.5) at No. 5 Clemson

The top 10 is filled with members of the SEC, but these two ACC teams are crashing the party and teaming up for perhaps the best game on Saturday.

Clemson is counting its lucky stars that it got out of Wake Forest last week with a double-overtime win. For N.C. State, its close call came in Week 1 against East Carolina. This game will be close and closer than a touchdown, meaning that the safest NCAA football bet is on North Carolina State to cover.

NCAA football

No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Mississippi (-6.5)

Kentucky is the higher ranked team, but they are the less complete team when compared to Ole Miss. The Wildcats have a great defense and a middling offense, and that is a big reason why they are underdogs on the road.

Mississippi ranks in the top-20 in both total offense and total defense, and look for them to cover the touchdown point spread.

No. 22 Wake Forest at No. 23 Florida State (-7)

Florida State has a chance to begin the season 5-0 for the first time since 2015, but to do it, they will have to get past Wake Forest, who nearly pulled off the upset over Clemson.

But can the Demon Deacons get back up for another big game? And a bigger question, can their pass offense move the ball against a great Florida State secondary?

The answer to that last question is doubtful, and that’s why we’re talking Florida State to win this game and cover the touchdown NCAA football point spread.

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NFL Week 3 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 20, 2022

The NFL loves its parity, and after two weeks of football, we are down to just six undefeated teams – the Bills, Dolphins, and Chiefs in the AFC, and the Eagles, Giants, and Buccaneers in the NFC.

That is the fewest 2-0 teams in the NFL since divisions realigned in 2002. It’s also worth noting that there are only five teams that are 0-2, and that’s a magic number because last season, we had seven 0-2 teams, and not one of them made the playoffs. Three of the five teams at 0-2 this year were playoff teams in 2021.

It’s the best league, anything can happen, and anything can happen when you place your bets.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots

It is a week for road favorites, and the first of these is the Baltimore Ravens visiting the New England Patriots.

Lamar Jackson isn’t likely to have another perfect week, but he is clearly playing at the top of his game, and he should have another big week. The Ravens’ defense also won’t collapse, as it did against the Dolphins. Instead of trying to contain Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, a challenge for a banged-up secondary, the Patriots have Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor.

Advantages to the Ravens in all three phases of the game have them covering the field goal spread.

NFL

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Indianapolis Colts

No team has started this season worse than the Indianapolis Colts, and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense is just fine without Tyreek Hill.

Kansas City had some problems with the Chargers’ wide receivers, but that is a weakness of the Colts, as is their offensive tackle situation. Shutting down Indy isn’t hard to do right now (see: Week 2 at Jacksonville), and the Chiefs will find the end zone at least four times.

Kansas City rolls to a big win in Indianapolis.

Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins

Good on the Miami Dolphins for their comeback win over the Ravens. But don’t forget, they were down 35-14, and against a better NFL team, that comeback never happens, and Miami loses big.

Buffalo is that better team. The best team in the NFL at this stage, coming off two giant wins over two of the best teams in 2021. Super Bowl champion Rams, no problem. They beat them by 21. The No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC in the Titans, they barely break a sweat. The Bills beat them by 34.

Buffalo is scary good, and they go into Miami and win by well over a touchdown.

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NCAA Football Week 4 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 20, 2022

It was a busy week in college football that saw Arizona State part ways with head coach Herm Edwards. Georgia, already No. 1 in the AP poll, moved past Alabama in the coaches poll thanks to a 48-7 win over South Carolina. And the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners set a school record for most points scored in Lincoln, Nebraska, with 49.

Hopefully, no more firings, and instead, just great football and winning wagers.

Maryland at No. 4 Michigan (-16.5)

Three football games and three 50-burgers for the Michigan Wolverines, and there’s no reason to think there won’t be another one this week. Jim Harbaugh is 6-0 against Maryland with an average margin of victory of 33 points – which is double this week’s point spread.

Maryland is also 3-0 but 1-2 against the spread against weak competition. Look for Michigan to roll by at least three touchdowns.

No. 5 Clemson at No. 21 Wake Forest (+7)

Clemson started off with an emphatic win over Georgia Tech, but since then, they’ve been sleepwalking. Yes, they beat Louisiana Tech last week, 48-20, but that was 5.5 points under the spread, and it came after only leading 13-7 at halftime.

No more cupcakes for the Tigers as they travel to Wake Forest, who counts a 20-point win at Vanderbilt among their three wins this season.

Can the Tigers turn it on against the Demon Deacons? Enough to win, yes. But this is going to be a close football game that sees Wake cover the touchdown spread.

Football

No. 20 Florida (+11) at No. 11 Tennessee

The Vols look great and are an impressive 3-0 against the spread. But this is Florida, a team that has beaten Tennessee in the last five meetings.

The Gators lost at home to Kentucky and squeaked past South Florida last week, but Anthony Richardson will keep this game close. Tennessee wins the game, but they lose the point spread. Take the Gators and the points.

No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 23 Texas A&M (-2.5)

The rankings are a little lopsided in this one. Last week Arkansas escaped a close one against Missouri State, failing to cover the spread by 15 points. Meanwhile, the Aggies made up for their embarrassment against Appalachian State with a cover win over Miami.

The Texas A&M offense is struggling, but the defense is playing like one of the best in the country, and the Razorbacks won’t be able to generate much of anything on offense. In a slugfest, Texas A&M covers the modest spread and wins by a field goal.

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NFL Week 2 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 14, 2022

You are forgiven if you aren’t yet fully recovered from a wild Week 1 in the NFL. With Seattle’s 1-point win over Denver on Monday, the NFL set a Week 1 record with seven games decided by three points or less.

The NFL is the most incredible reality show on earth, and this is what it has in store for us in Week 2.

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Carson Wentz gave us the full Carson Wentz experience in Week 1, making a couple of terrible decisions and absolutely beautiful throws. It resulted in a win, but a close win against the Jaguars that would have been a loss to a better team.

In 2022 the Lions are a better team, as they showed in their near comeback against the Eagles. At home and against a quarterback who will turn the ball over, Detroit wins 24-20 and covers the spread.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) at Dallas Cowboys

Following a game with five turnovers, Joe Burrow now plays against a team that led all of football last year in forced turnovers. But none of that will matter with Cooper Rush as the Dallas quarterback.

Burrow may throw a pick or two, but the Cowboys’ offense will be terrible, and the Bengals will win this game by at least 10 points. Look for Cincinnati to cover, but not look all that great in doing so.

NFL

Seattle Seahawks (+9.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Trey Lance is a big question mark, Elijah Mitchell is gone for the next two months, and the status of George Kittle for Week 2 is unknown. Maybe he’ll play, maybe he won’t.

Add in the confidence that Geno Smith showed on Monday night and Seattle’s big win over the Broncos, and the 9.5-point spread feels like too much value to ignore. Maybe Seattle has a letdown after such an emotional win. But maybe this team is better than people think, and they keep this NFL game close.

We believe the latter. Take Seattle and the points.

Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders (-6)

Clean up the turnovers, and this Raiders offense can be good. They could have been good against the Chargers and even beaten them. And as we saw against the Chiefs, this Cardinals defense has some real problems.

Derek Carr isn’t going to replicate the five-touchdown day of Patrick Mahomes, but he and the Raiders will find the end zone multiple times against Arizona and win this NFL game by at least a touchdown. Bet on the Raiders to cover this spread.

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NCAA Football Week 3 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 13, 2022

It has been a tumultuous first couple of weeks in NCAA football, and storylines abound. Like Notre Dame, who looked like a legitimate contender at Ohio State, then promptly lost to Marshall.

It’s only mid-September, and we already have a coaching change in Nebraska, with Scott Frost out after a 1-2 start. We also might already have our best NCAA game of the year, with Alabama surviving in the end at Texas.

What is in store for us in NCAA Week 3, and which games deserve our betting dollars?

No. 6 Oklahoma (-11.5) at Nebraska

There was a time when this was the biggest game of the year, and not just in Oklahoma and Nebraska, but across the country. From 1971 until 1997, when the creation of the Big XII ended the annual rivalry, 20 times they played when both teams were ranked.

There was a stretch in the 90s when Nebraska was up, and Oklahoma was down, and now it’s Oklahoma that is up and Nebraska that is down. Way down. They now have an interim head coach and are coming off a home loss to Georgia Southern.

Oklahoma feasts.

NCAA Football Week 3 Betting Picks

No. 1 Georgia at South Carolina (+24.5)

Georgia has outscored its two opponents 82-3. And these weren’t just scrubs. The most impressive win in all of college football this season was their total dismantling of Oregon, 49-3. Wiping the floor with Samford is a yawner. Crushing one of the best teams in another Power-5 Conference makes you notice.

South Carolina is good, and there is no shame in losing to Arkansas last week. And there won’t be any shame in losing to the top-ranked Bulldogs this week because South Carolina will cover the spread.

No. 22 Penn State (-3) at Auburn

Freshman Nick Singleton looks like the next great Penn State running back, rushing for 179 yards on just ten carries against Ohio last week. The game before, at Purdue, it was Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford who was the star, throwing for 282 yards and four touchdowns.

Auburn is also 2-0, but they have failed to cover the spread in both weeks, while Penn State is 2-0 against the spread. They will make it three straight wins this weekend at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

No. 11 Michigan State (+3.5) at Washington

A great matchup on the West Coast has a pair of undefeated teams in Michigan State at Washington.

The Spartans have a great defense, and Washington has a great quarterback in Michael Penix Jr., but overall the Huskies just aren’t physical enough to compete with Michigan State. Getting more than a field goal on the road makes them a very enticing play.

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NFL Week 1 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 8, 2022

The NFL is back this weekend, and that means the absolute, very best sports betting is also back, with 14 games on Sunday and a 15th coming Monday night in Seattle.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Even with Tom Brady, the Patriots had issues playing in Miami, and now the Dolphins have one of the fastest offenses in football.

This bet is as much pro-Miami as it is anti an offense with co-offensive coordinators who have no experience ever working as offensive coordinators. The two-headed offensive monster of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge sounds like a disaster in the making, and on Sunday, the Dolphins will take full advantage.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

This is the game that ended the 2021 regular season, and it was a doozy, with the overtime winner going to the playoffs (the Raiders) and the loser (the Chargers) going home.

Justin Herbert lit up the scoreboard that night, and he will do it again. But the Raiders now have Davante Adams, L.A. addition J.C. Jackson is not going to play, and with the superior Daniel Carlson as their kicker, this is going to be a field goal game.

Take Las Vegas and the points, and consider the Raiders on the moneyline too.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Chicago Bears

The Bears have one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and even with a quarterback that is largely an unknown, the 49ers have one of the best rosters in the NFL.

Don’t be too worried about Trey Lance. This 49ers team is going to be good, and against a team like Chicago, who is expected to get a top-five draft pick next year, the 49ers will look great. This is going to be an easy win for San Francisco, and they will cover the touchdown spread.

NFL

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (+6.5)

Seattle traded its franchise quarterback to Denver in the offseason, and just last week, the Broncos signed him to a huge contract extension that will keep him in the Mile High City for the next seven years.

No question that Russell Wilson wants to win this game more than any other on the schedule, but this Seahawks roster is better than many people are giving it credit for. The Broncos are the better team, but it will be an emotional night at home, and the Seattle defense will keep the final score to less than a touchdown.

Denver wins, but Seattle covers.

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NCAA Football Week 2 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 6, 2022

It’s Week 2 in NCAA football, and a number of great top-25 matchups highlight our betting Saturday.

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-20) at Texas Longhorns

Both Alabama and Texas are coming off big Week 1 wins, but only one of these teams looked like the best NCAA team in the country. Hint: It was the team that beat Utah State 55-0.

This is a big spread considering that the game is in Texas, and the Longhorns are good, just outside the top-25. Don’t be surprised if this game ends up being a 38-20 Alabama win, which would mean that Texas plus the points makes for the better bet.

No. 24 Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5) at No. 17 Pittsburgh Panthers

The Panthers failed to cover in their Week 1 win over West Virginia, while Tennessee covered their spread by nearly two touchdowns.

Worse for Pittsburgh was the porous defense that showed up in Week 1, that will absolutely sink them in Week 2. Note that the Panthers are ranked higher and at home but nearly a touchdown underdog. That tells you that early in the NCAA season, you should trust Las Vegas more than AP voters.

Tennessee is the much better team, and they will cover this spread.

NCAA

No. 20 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 12 Florida Gators (-4.5)

This is a great quarterback matchup between two guys who will be playing on Sunday next season – Will Levis of Kentucky and Anthony Richardson of Florida.

Richardson has more raw talent, while Levis looked to be more NFL-ready a week ago. But Richardson was fantastic in Week 1 against Utah, and if he keeps that up, Florida is going to win a lot of games this season. That includes this Saturday’s win over Kentucky, which will be by a touchdown or more.

No. 9 Baylor Bears at No. 21 BYU Cougars (-3.5)

It’s hard to really know what we have in Baylor after they ran over Albany, 69-10. At least BYU played another FBS school in South Florida, who they demolished 50-21. The spread was only 11, which they nearly tripled.

BYU is at home and based on how both teams looked in Week 1, it’s easy to see why the Cougars are the better than field goal favorite. But this would be to ignore who Baylor was in 2021 and who has returned from that team.

The Bears are good, and not only will they cover the modest spread at BYU, they will win this NCAA game outright.

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Cook Out Southern 500 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 31, 2022

With the regular season ending in the rain at Daytona, and a surprise victory by Austin Dillon, NASCAR moves on to the playoffs and the round of 16 in Darlington for the Cook Out Southern 500.

By virtue of his rain-delayed win, in which he had to retake the lead in the final three laps, Dillon is in the final field of 16. Ryan Blaney also got in by finishing the race in 15th place – the lone driver in the playoffs who did not record a victory this season.

Martin Truex Jr. lost out on that final spot, and he is now racing the rest of the season with no chance to win a championship.

Favorites to Win Cook Out Southern 500

  • Kyle Larson (+600)
  • Denny Hamlin (+700)
  • Chase Elliott (+800)
  • Joey Logano (+800)
  • Ross Chastain (+800)
  • Tyler Reddick (+800)
  • Kyle Busch (+900)
  • Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)
  • Ryan Blaney (+1400)
  • William Byron (+1400)

Leading the pack is Kyle Larson, and why not. He is the defending Cup Series champion, and in his last four Cook Out Southern 500 races at Darlington, he has three top-five finishes. His engine let him down at Daytona last week, but he was the winner the week before at Watkins Glen, giving him ten top-five finishes in 2022.

Since 2019 Denny Hamlin has raced at Darlington seven times, and he has two wins and four top-five finishes, which includes his win at Cook Out Southern 500 last year. He also didn’t finish last week’s race at Daytona, but he began the month of August with a third-place finish in Michigan and a fourth-place finish in Richmond.

Cook Out Southern 500

Chase Elliott is your overall points leader, and he’s been so good all season that it seems like it’s been ages since he last won. In reality, it was only July 24th when he won at Pocono. He had two top-five finishes in August, but he’s only third on the Cook Out Southern 500 odds board because of an up-and-down history at Darlington.

Elliott finished fifth here back in May, but at Cook Out Southern 500 a year ago, he was 31st. He was 20th at this race in 2020 and 19th in 2019.

The last of the favorites worth an extra look is Joey Logano, who finished the regular season just 15 points behind Elliott. And unlike the man he has been chasing all season, he does have a good history at Darlington. He won here in May, was eighth last September, and he has four other top-five finishes in his career on this track at the Cook Out Southern 500.

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WagerHome BlogCook Out Southern 500 2022 Betting Preview

NCAA Football Week 1 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on August 30, 2022

NCAA football fans got a little taste of the season to come last weekend with a thriller in Dublin, Ireland, where Northwestern came from behind to beat Nebraska. Illinois, Florida State, and North Carolina all got easy wins, and Vanderbilt went out to Hawaii and got a 63-10 victory.

But that was only Week 0. This is now officially Week 1, and all 25 of the nation’s Top-25 teams are in action, beginning on Thursday at Oklahoma State and finishing up on Monday night with Clemson and Georgia Tech.

NCAA Football Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

West Virginia (+7.5) at No. 17 Pittsburgh – Thursday

This is the 105th playing of the Backyard Brawl, but just the first since 2011. So while history can’t tell us about these two specific sets of players, we do know that four of the last five meetings have been decided by four points or less.

It will be rocking in Pittsburgh, and the Panthers probably win this game, but they will fall short of covering the touchdown spread. Take the Mountaineers.

Colorado State at No. 8 Michigan (-30.5) – Saturday

Here are the numbers that matter to you. Last season Michigan was 11-3-0 against the spread and 5-1 when that spread was more than two touchdowns.

On the other side, Colorado State was just 4-8-0 against the spread, and they lost their final six games of the season ATS.

CSU is ranked right around 95 in the country. Michigan is eighth. This is going to be a bloodbath that has the Wolverines covering no later than the third quarter.

No. 11 Oregon (+17.5) at No. 3 Georgia – Saturday

Considering that the Bulldogs lost 15 players to the NFL this past season, putting them as more than a two-touchdown favorite against a very good Oregon team is quite the leap.

Georgia is still loaded with talent, but they are a far greater unknown than a lot of teams because of their huge roster turnover.

You may want to roll with the Bulldogs most of the NCAA season, but this week look for the Ducks to cover.

No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 2 Ohio State (-17) – Saturday

It’s another huge spread for a game that, on paper, looks much closer than 17 points. But we know what we have in Ohio State, and it’s an offense led by C.J. Stroud that is going to put up points at will.

Notre Dame’s situation is far less certain, and their key players – like quarterback Tyler Buchner – are far less experienced.

In November, you might take the Irish to cover this spread. Right out of the gate and in Columbus, look for the Buckeyes to cover.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football Week 1 Betting Picks