2021 Mock NFL Draft

by WagerHome Blog on April 7, 2021

The NFL Draft is just three weeks away, and the wheeling and dealing has already reached a fever pitch. The San Francisco 49ers made big moves to get a quarterback, and the New York Jets seem to have clarified their draft priorities with a trade of their own.

It is the season of the mock draft, and here is ours.

Top 10 NFL Draft Picks

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (QB)

Don’t listen to the noise. Trevor Lawrence has been the top pick in this draft for more than two years now.

2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson, BYU (QB)

Sam Darnold has been dealt to the Carolina Panthers, and the Jets replace him with the signal-caller from BYU, Zach Wilson.

3. San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, Alabama (QB)

This is where things get interesting. Maybe the Mac Jones chatter is a smoke screen, though no one can jump ahead of the 49ers and take either Justin Fields or Trey Lance, so there is no reason for a head-fake here. So it’s Jones, but with a possible surprise.

4. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts, Florida (TE)

The Falcons have revealed that they would like to trade this pick, so stay tuned. It could become a quarterback to a yet-to-be-named team. But if the Falcons keep the pick, they will add the most impressive offensive weapon in the draft, Florida tight end Kyle Pitts.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, Oregon (OT)

Last year, the Bengals got their franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow. And since he ended the season injured, this year they will get the best player in this draft charged with keeping quarterbacks healthy, Oregon tackle Penei Sewell.

6. Miami Dolphins – Ja’Marr Chase, LSU (WR)

By trading out of the top three, the Dolphins signaled that they are ready to roll with Tua Tagovailoa in 2021. He gets the best wide receiver in the draft, Ja’Marr Chase.

7. Detroit Lions – Justin Fields, Ohio State (QB)

nfl draft

The Lions did just trade for Jared Goff, but that was more for the draft picks the Rams sent to take on Goff’s contract. The Lions can get out of that contract in 2022, and at that point, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields will take the reins.

8. Carolina Panthers – Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (OT)

Maybe the Panthers go with a wide receiver, but they do have Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore, which makes offensive tackle more likely. Rashawn Slater from Northwestern is the second-best tackle in the draft.

9. Denver Broncos – Trey Lance, North Dakota State (QB)

The Broncos could trade up for a different quarterback, but chances are they will be pleased to get North Dakota State’s Trey Lance without having to trade away any assets.

10. Dallas Cowboys – Kwity Paye, Michigan (Edge)

Our first defensive selection of the draft goes to Dallas, where Michigan’s Kwity Paye will pair very nicely with DeMarcus Lawrence and give Dallas a top pass rush.

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WagerHome Blog2021 Mock NFL Draft

Masters 2021 picks: Expert predictions

by WagerHome Blog on April 6, 2021

Gone from the calendar last April, the Masters is back in its traditional spot of opening up the spring. In just a few days, we will hear Jim Nantz welcome us to the “tradition unlike any other” as the best golfers in the world tee it up for the first major championship of the season.

It also marks the first time since November that we get to place wagers on a major championship, and these are your Masters betting favorites to begin the week.

2021 Masters Favorites

  • Dustin Johnson (+900)
  • Jordan Spieth (+1000)
  • Justin Thomas (+1000)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1100)
  • Jon Rahm (+1200)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1400)
  • Xander Schauffele (+2200)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
  • Brooks Koepka (+2500)
  • Patrick Reed (+2800)

The world’s number one player and the Masters champion when this tournament was played in November, Dustin Johnson is the obvious betting favorite here. He’s been in the top five at Augusta for five straight years, and it would be shocking if Johnson wasn’t in contention on Sunday.

A week ago, 2015 champion Jordan Spieth was paying at +1400 and was fifth on the list of favorites. On Sunday, however, he just won his first event in almost four years at the Valero Texas Open, and now he’s second on the list behind Johnson.

The other interesting story among the Masters betting favorites is Brooks Koepka. Just three weeks ago, he had surgery to repair a dislocated kneecap, and we weren’t sure he was going to be here. It’s why the second-place finisher in 2019 is only paying +2500.

Others to Watch

Sergio Garcia has gone from a Masters champion in 2017 to +5000 in 2021. That is good value for a player who right now is at the top of his game. He finished in the top 10 at The Players Championship and tied for fifth at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event.

masters betting

Another golfer who is playing a lot better than his number would indicate is Matt Kuchar at +8000. He finished in third place at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event and tied for 12th place at the Valero Texas Open. Kuchar has never won a major despite finishing in the top 10 at all four events, but he is definitely worth a look at such a good value.

A real dark horse, but one worth considering, is Si-woo Kim at +10000. He doesn’t have a great history at Augusta (21st in 2019), which is why he is paying so much. But he did win The American Express in January and finished in the top 10 at Sawgrass in March, which is why you should consider him.

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WagerHome BlogMasters 2021 picks: Expert predictions

NCAA Final Four Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on April 1, 2021

It’s been an unusual NCAA Tournament, with the entire thing taking place in Indiana. But it has also been a fantastic NCAA Tournament, and now we’re down to the Final Four.

There was the single COVID-19 incident that resulted in VCU having to forfeit its first-round game with Oregon, but otherwise, we made it to the Final Four without any other hiccups and with a lot of great basketball.

Baylor Bears (-5.0) vs. Houston Cougars

As crazy as the Midwest Region got, with No. 1 Illinois falling to Loyola Chicago, No. 11 Syracuse marching to the Sweet 16, and No. 12 Oregon State going all the way to the Elite Eight, one of the pre-tournament favorites in Houston advanced to the Final Four.

The road to Houston’s first Final Four since 1984 and the days of Phi Slama Jama and Akeem Olajuwon (Hakeem since 1991) has not been terribly challenging. They are the first Final Four team to ever advance that far by only playing double-digit seeds.

That changes when they face the top seed in the South, Baylor, which is making its first Final Four appearance since 1950, when the tournament had just eight teams.

Baylor was knocked off its stride when it was forced to miss three weeks during the season because of COVID-19 protocols. But the top three-point shooting team in the country looks like its old 17-0 self and rolls into the final weekend with 26 wins, the second-most in the country.

Houston dominates the offensive glass in this one and keeps it close, but ultimately the Bears are too much. Baylor wins; Houston covers.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (-13.5) vs. UCLA Bruins

From the First Four to the Final Four has been the road for the UCLA Bruins. Unlike the other three teams in Indianapolis this weekend, the Bruins are regulars in the Final Four, with this being their 19th appearance.

ncaa final four

UCLA likes to slow the pace and bore you into a loss, which is exactly how they knocked off the East’s top seed, Michigan, to get here and set up the improbable matchup with the nation’s No. 1 team Gonzaga.

The Bulldogs have been a team of destiny all season long. Not only have they not lost a single game all year, but they have won their last 27 games by double digits.

Not surprisingly, that is an NCAA Division I record. Here in the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga’s wins have been by 43, 16, 18, and 19.

It’s hard to imagine a program in search of its first-ever national championship being this big of a favorite against a program with 11 national championships, but there aren’t many teams like this year’s Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Bulldogs win big, cover the spread, and roll into Monday’s final game.

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2021 MLB Futures Bets to Consider

by WagerHome Blog on March 30, 2021

The Major League Baseball season begins on Thursday, and a full 162-game schedule is the plan. The next season of baseball definitely looks brighter than the last season, so as always, at this time of spring, we want to get those MLB futures bets placed before the new campaign begins.

World Series Champion

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (+350)
  • New York Yankees (+550)
  • San Diego Padres (+900)
  • New York Mets (+1000)
  • Atlanta Braves (+1000)
  • Chicago White Sox (+1000)
  • Minnesota Twins (+1800)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (+2200)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (+2200)
  • Oakland Athletics (+2200)
  • Houston Astros (+2200)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are favored to repeat as champions, but is +350 worth the risk? To put it this way, are they really seven times more likely to win the World Series than last year’s American League champion Rays? Or the talented lineup of Toronto?

The Mets aren’t coming off a good 2020, but they are coming off a great offseason and may be worth a play at +1000.

MLB Win Totals

You can make MLB futures bets on the over/under on regular-season win totals for each team, and one of the most appealing bets is the Cardinals going over 86.0 wins.

The Cardinals haven’t finished below .500 since 2007, and since 2015, newly-acquired Nolan Arenado has averaged a WAR of 6.3. As the favorite to win a division that includes the Cubs and Pirates – the Pirates’ over/under on wins is 59.0 – the Cardinals should easily push for 90 wins.

Another bet to consider is the under on the White Sox and 89.5 wins. Chicago is good, but it just lost Eloy Jimenez for the season. The 23-year-old slugger was projected to hit 31 home runs in 2021.

Also, the Twins will give the White Sox a run for the division title, and both the Royals and Indians will be better than many think. The White Sox may get into the playoffs, but 90 wins will be tough to hit.

Home Run Leader

  • Mike Trout (+1200)
  • Pete Alonzo (+1200)
  • Joey Gallo (+1200)
  • Juan Soto (+1400)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1500)
  • Cody Bellinger (+1500)
  • Yordan Alvarez (+2000)
  • Bryce Harper (+2000)
  • Aaron Judge (+2000)
  • Giancarlo Stanton (+2000)

Mike Trout is an interesting favorite on this list. As good as he is, he’s never been a home run leader. In 2019 he hit a career-high 45 home runs, but the leader that year was Pete Alonzo with 53.

mlb futures betsOne bet to consider is Aaron Judge. When healthy, he is a 50-plus home run hitter. He just hasn’t been healthy since 2017.

However, Judge says that he’s changed his approach this offseason to body health and vows to be in the lineup all season long.

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Betting Odds to Win NCAA Sweet 16 Matchups

by WagerHome Blog on March 25, 2021

Hopefully, none of your friends have weddings scheduled for this NCAA Sweet 16 weekend. Saturday and Sunday are all about the eight best college basketball games of the season, and you don’t want to be anywhere other than in front of your television.

Saturday Games

Oregon State Beavers vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers (-6.5)

The first of the eight NCAA Sweet 16 games begins with the eighth-seeded Loyola Chicago Ramblers as favorites to advance past 12th-seeded Oregon State. Loyola Chicago played one of the most complete games of the tournament when it knocked off Illinois, and look for a repeat performance against Oregon State.

Villanova Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears (-6.5)

Fifth-seeded Villanova is without its best player in Collin Gillespie, and top-seeded Baylor played great basketball during the first weekend of the tournament. Villanova played Winthrop and North Texas to get to this point, but it will be eliminated easily by a far superior Baylor team.

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-11)

The feel-good team of the tournament is 15th-seeded Oral Roberts, but this Cinderella story comes to a close on Saturday. The Golden Eagles play good enough team basketball to keep their game with third-seeded Arkansas inside 10 points, though, so don’t be surprised if they cover.

Syracuse Orange vs. Houston Cougars (-6)

Second-seeded Houston barely got past Rutgers, and Syracuse is the most dangerous No. 11 seed in recent memory. If you’re looking to bet a big upset in the NCAA Sweet 16, this is as good a bet as you’ll find.

Sunday Games

Creighton Bluejays vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs (-13.5)

Fifth-seeded Creighton squeaked by UC Santa Barbara and beat an overmatched Ohio squad, while top-seeded Gonzaga has looked like one of the best teams in college basketball history. The Bulldogs roll past the Bluejays by double-digits and are a good bet to cover the spread.

Florida State Seminoles vs. Michigan Wolverines (-3)

The lone Big Ten representative remaining is top-seeded Michigan, and there’s a good chance it lives to fight another day. Fourth-seeded Florida State keeps it close and possibly covers, but the Wolverines will advance.

Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans (-2.5)

A quarter of the NCAA Sweet 16 is from the Pac-12, and half of that group meets in this matchup between the seventh-seeded Ducks and the sixth-seeded Trojans, perhaps the best of all the Sweet 16 games. COVID-19 wiped out one of their meetings this year, and USC won the other, and both teams are coming off dominating upset wins in the second round.

ncaa sweet 16

UCLA Bruins vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-6)

UCLA, an 11th seed, had a nice run to get to this point, but second-seeded Alabama looks like the favorite to win the East Region. The Crimson Tide will close out the NCAA Sweet 16 with a double-digit win and easily cover the spread.

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Betting Odds to Win WGC Dell Technologies Match Play

by WagerHome Blog on March 23, 2021

The PGA Tour makes a stop in Austin, Texas, this week for the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play, the only match play event on the PGA calendar. It is a field of the best golfers in the world, with 59 of the top 64 ranked players participating in this week’s event.

Only Brooks Koepka, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, and Justin Rose opted to skip the tournament, and Tiger Woods will, of course, also be absent.

Favorites to Win WGC Dell Technologies

  • Justin Thomas (+1200)
  • Jon Rahm (+1400)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)
  • Dustin Johnson (+1400)
  • Rory McIlroy (+2000)
  • Collin Morikawa (+2200)
  • Sungjae Im (+2500)
  • Patrick Reed (+2500)
  • Jordan Spieth (+2500)
  • Paul Casey (+2500)

Tournament Format

The field of 64 golfers is split into 16 foursomes, with each of the four golfers playing a round robin against one another Wednesday through Friday.

The winner of each foursome will then advance to the quarterfinals, and a single-elimination bracket will be set, with both the quarters and semifinals being played on Saturday. The championship match and the third-place match will take place on Sunday, with $1.8 million going to the winner.

Foursomes to Watch

Dustin Johnson is the number one golfer in the world and was a winner at this event in 2017, and his group includes Kevin Na, Robert MacIntyre, and Adam Long.

The winner at Sawgrass, Justin Thomas, is the betting favorite to win in Austin, but his group is far from an easy road. Louis Oosthuizen finished third at the U.S. Open in September and just finished sixth at the WGC Workday Championship.

Kevin Kisner is the third member of the group, and he was the winner of this event in 2019. The fourth member of this foursome is Matt Kuchar, who was the runner-up to Kisner in 2019, the last time this event was held.

dell technologies match play

A good longshot opportunity is with Scottie Scheffler (+4000) in a foursome that includes Jason Day, Xander Schauffele, and Andy Sullivan. Scheffler went to college at the University of Texas, so this is a bit of homecoming for him.

Also, Schauffele is the highest-ranked golfer in the group, but he finished 39th at the WGC Workday Championship and is coming off a missed cut at The Players Championship.

It’s also worth taking a look at Brian Harman (+7000) in a group with Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, and Carlos Ortiz. Harman is coming off a third-place finish at The Players Championship, and it’s worth noting that the designer of TPC Sawgrass, Pete Dye, also designed the course at Austin Country Club.

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WagerHome BlogBetting Odds to Win WGC Dell Technologies Match Play

Can Anyone Beat Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament?

by WagerHome Blog on March 17, 2021

Can anyone beat Gonzaga?

Mark Few’s squad began this season as the best team in the nation, and it is hoping to end this season as the best team in the nation as well. The Bulldogs were the obvious choice for the No. 1 overall seed, and they begin their quest to become one of the best teams in NCAA history on Saturday.

So again, can anyone in the field beat Gonzaga?

Finishing Perfect is Not Easy

Gonzaga has an unblemished 26-0 record and is the first unbeaten team to enter the NCAA Tournament since the 2015 Kentucky Wildcats. Overall, Gonzaga is the 20th team to begin the tournament without a loss.

But before you put everything you have on Gonzaga to finish the season at 32-0, consider that of the previous 19 unbeatens, only seven of them actually won the national championship. And some of the most talented teams in history carry the infamous tag of regular-season champs but failures in March.

Like that Kentucky team in 2015, which finished 38-1 after a Final Four defeat by Wisconsin. Or perhaps the best team in college basketball history, UNLV, which with its three NBA lottery picks (Larry Johnson, Greg Anthony and Stacey Augmon), which lost to Duke in the national semifinals to go 34-1.

There have been seven wire-to-wire NCAA basketball champions, but also nine champions that began the season unranked.

So yes, it’s very possible, even likely, that someone will beat Gonzaga, and the Bulldogs will not finish the season as the champions.

Biggest Challengers

There are a number of teams that pose a threat to Gonzaga’s run at history. The team that most scares the bookmakers is Michigan, which at one point in December was taking championship action that paid 125-1. The Wolverines are clearly the biggest liability for bookmakers.

The biggest challenger to Gonzaga might be the other Big Ten team to grab a No. 1 seed, Illinois. The Illini won their conference tournament, so they head into the tournament on a winning streak.

beat gonzaga

They are battle-tested, having played in what has been the best conference this season and with wins over both Michigan and Ohio State. And Oklahoma State is the most difficult challenge on the Illinois side of the Midwest’s bracket.

Baylor is the No. 1 seed in the South and is drawing the second-best odds in the tournament field, trailing only Gonzaga. The Bears finished the season 22-2, with their only two losses to coming No. 3 seed Kansas and No. 4 seed Oklahoma State.

Sadly, COVID-19 troubles canceled a game in December between Baylor and Gonzaga that would have given us all tournament talking points and a possible preview of the national championship game.

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WagerHome BlogCan Anyone Beat Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament?

Who Will Win the NCAA Tournament?

by WagerHome Blog on March 16, 2021

That sound you hear is a thousand angels singing from the heavens that after it was canceled 12 months ago, the greatest sporting month anywhere in the world is back. The NCAA Tournament is here. The Madness will soon commence.

And the million-dollar question, quite literally in the case of some NCAA brackets, is, who will win the NCAA Tournament? Which of the 68 teams will cut down the nets at the Final Four and claim the national championship?

Top Seeds

Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, and Michigan are all No. 1 seeds and are the four betting favorites to win the NCAA Tournament. It’s worth noting that in the last 30 tournaments, a No. 3 seed or lower has only won the whole thing five times.

So, along with these four top seeds, the four No. 2s – Houston, Iowa, Alabama, and Ohio State – are your most likely winners.

Of those eight teams, Gonzaga is the most likely to win it all. The Bulldogs went the regular season as the wire-to-wire number one team in the AP poll, they are the betting favorite at +200, and they are the safest bet to claim the national championship.

As top seeds go, this is as close to a Cinderella story as you’ll find. Gonzaga has played in just a single Final Four (2017) and has never won a championship.

If you don’t like betting on favorites, the No. 2 seed that poses the most problems for Gonzaga is Alabama. The Crimson Tide have won six straight and haven’t lost to an unranked team since the middle of December.

Plus, they are in the East, where No. 1 seed Michigan has lost three of its last five games.

Possible Upset Winners

If you’re looking beyond the top two seeds, give Oklahoma State a try. The Cowboys are the No. 4 seed in the Midwest, but a strong case can be made for them being as high as No. 2.

ncaa tournament

In the last three weeks, they have wins over No. 1 seed Baylor, No. 3 seed Texas, two wins over No. 3 seed West Virginia, No. 6 seed Texas Tech, and two wins over No. 8 seed Oklahoma.

They also beat No. 3 seed Kansas earlier in the season. Tennessee and Illinois present a tough road for the Cowboys, but this team is ready.

Also, don’t sleep on San Diego State. The No. 6 seed in the Midwest hasn’t lost since Jan. 19.

Wins over ranked teams are tough to find in the Mountain West, but the Aztecs did beat both UCLA and Arizona State this season. They have experience, play great defense, and are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the tournament.

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WagerHome BlogWho Will Win the NCAA Tournament?

What Underdogs Have a Chance at The Players Championship?

by WagerHome Blog on March 10, 2021

It’s hard to call any of the 154 players who will be at TPC Sawgrass this weekend for The Players Championship underdogs. A record-tying 113 of them are PGA Tour winners, and 10 of them have won this tournament before.

Often called golf’s “fifth major,” the qualifying standards ensure that this is the best field of the year. To get in, you need to win a major or other designated tournament, be ranked in the top 50 in the world, be in the top 10 in FedEx Cup points, or be a leading money winner.

And if that doesn’t fill out the 154-golfer field, the rest of the FedEx Cup list, up to place 125, will be used.

It’s a great field, a tough course, and there are a number of great value bets that might walk away as the champion.

Paul Casey (+4500)

Paul Casey just finished 10th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational despite a 2-over-par 74 on Sunday, and he finished in fifth place at Pebble Beach back in February. That followed an eighth-place finish at The American Express in January.

As the 19th-ranked player in the world, +4500 is good value for a hot Casey.

Danny Willett (+35000)

Danny Willett is on our radar because of the big number the oddsmakers have put next to his name. He doesn’t have a great history at Sawgrass with four missed cuts. But +35000 is way too high for a golfer who has a green jacket from Augusta.

Willett is coming off a 31st-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but in truth, he was much better than that. Without a final round 77, he would have finished in the top 20.

Ryan Moore (+27500)

In a field of overachieving golfers, Ryan Moore might be the clearest underdog of the bunch. His 2021 reads missed cut, missed cut, missed cut, tied for 26th. So yeah, Moore isn’t rolling into The Players Championship on a wave of great golf.


But the Stadium Course at Sawgrass is unique, knowledge of the course is key, and Moore has logged 46 competitive rounds at The Players. In the last two tournaments here in 2018 and 2019, Moore finished at -8 and -9, which included a top 20 finish and a round of 66, which is just three off the course record.

Is he going to win? It’s highly unlikely. But he’s at his best when he’s playing here, and that potential payoff is too good to resist.

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Who Will Win The Players Championship?

by WagerHome Blog on March 9, 2021

Other than Pebble Beach and Augusta National, there is no more recognizable American golf course than the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. The 17th hole “island green” is as iconic as any par-3 in the world.

It’s also the site of one of the most competitive tournaments anywhere in the world, The Players Championship. In fact, the Stadium Course was constructed specifically to host this event and its collection of the best golfers in the world.

There was no champion in 2020, as the event was canceled after Hideki Matsuyama tied the course record with a first-round 63. So the current defending champion is 2019 winner Rory McIlroy.

He is one of 10 total Players Champions in the field this weekend, along with 113 total PGA Tour winners, which is tied for the most in any tournament in 21 years.

This field also has 29 of the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings and 49 of the top 50 players in the World Golf Rankings.

This field is stacked.

The Players Championship Favorites

  • Dustin Johnson (+1100)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1400)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)
  • Jon Rahm (+1600)
  • Xander Schauffele (+2000)
  • Justin Thomas (+2000)
  • Webb Simpson (+2200)
  • Collin Morikawa (+2200)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
  • Tony Finau (+2500)
  • Jordan Spieth (+2500)
  • Viktor Hovland (+2500)

Dustin Johnson is the favorite and the world’s top-ranked player, but he is not one of the 10 players who have won this tournament before. In fact, he’s played in this event 12 times but only finished in the top 10 once, a fifth-place finish in 2019.

Along with his win in 2019, McIlroy has three other top 10 finishes. He is currently ranked eighth in the world and has finished in the top 10 in each of the previous two weeks.

Webb Simpson was the champion here in 2018, but the rest of his history at The Players is checkered. He’s missed the cut four times and finished over par in two other tournaments.

However, he did just finish sixth at the WGC-Workday Championship two weekends ago.

the players

Not on this list, but at +3500, is Matsuyama, who did have that incredible start to the tournament last year before the rest of it was canceled. Matsuyama is ranked 23rd in the world and finished eighth here in 2019 and seventh in 2016.

He hasn’t been in the top 10 in any event since November, but with a good history at Sawgrass, Matsuyama is a good value bet.

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WagerHome BlogWho Will Win The Players Championship?