Best Bets for NFL Week 4

by WagerHome Blog on September 28, 2023

In NFL Week 3, survivor pools were left in tatters after the Dallas Cowboys lost to the Arizona Cardinals and the Baltimore Ravens lost to the Indianapolis Colts. And how on earth could the Minnesota Vikings get inside the Chargers six-yard line twice in the final three minutes and not score any points?

Thus are the fates when you wager on the NFL.

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills

There is no greater example of the week-to-week nature of the NFL than the fact that one week after winning 70-20, the Dolphins are road underdogs.

Sure, Miami has a bad history in Buffalo. They’ve lost seven in a row when visiting the Bills. But they nearly won in the playoffs in January with Skylar Thompson at quarterback, and this year’s Miami team just feels different.

When the best offense is getting points, you take them.

Washington Commanders (+8) at Philadelphia Eagles

You will be forgiven for not taking the Commanders in this one, considering how bad things got last week against the Bills. But this is a divisional game (always close), and don’t forget that last year, an undefeated Eagles team dropped their first game of the year to a lesser version of the Commanders.

Washington has the defense and the running game to keep this NFL game close, and until Jalen Hurts irons out his inconsistencies in the passing game, Philadelphia will get more tight wins than blowouts. Washington knows how to play the Eagles tight, and they will do it again on Sunday.


Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Even with a bad Deshaun Watson last season, the Browns and Ravens split, with Cleveland winning at home. The year before that, with a bad Baker Mayfield, the teams also split, each winning on their home field.

Now the Browns are getting average play from Watson and otherworldly play from their defense – Cleveland has the best scoring defense in the NFL, giving up just 10 points per game.

The Nick Chubb loss looks to be big, as the Browns mustered almost no running game last week against the Titans. But Baltimore is dealing with multiple injuries at multiple positions, and that will make it too hard for them to overcome the defense or the crowd in Cleveland.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at New York Jets

This is Patrick Mahomes’ first career start in New York. Hall of Famer Joe Namath is hoping this is Zach Wilson’s final start in New York.

Yes, the Jets have a great defense. But so do the Chiefs, and they have Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Word is that Taylor Swift will also be in attendance, and Kansas City is 1-0 against the spread when she is in the building.

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WagerHome BlogBest Bets for NFL Week 4

Ryder Cup Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 25, 2023

Two years ago in Wisconsin, the United States dominated the Ryder Cup, beating the Europeans 19-9. Schedule changes in 2020 because of COVID mean that we haven’t played this storied competition on European soil since 2018, but we are back.

The Europeans have won six straight times on their home continent, last losing in England in 1993. This will be the first-ever Ryder Cup to be played in Italy and just the third Ryder Cup to be played somewhere other than Great Britain, Ireland, or the United States.

Even though the competition is taking place in Europe, where traditionally, the United States has not done well, the United States is the favorite at -120. A bet on Europe is +130, and a tie score is paying +900.

There are also available spreads for the winner.

The United States +3 pays -265. Europe -3 pays +275.
Europe +3 pays -190. The United States -3 pays +200.

Ryder Cup Schedule

The Ryder Cup festivities begin on Tuesday, but the competition doesn’t begin until Friday, September 29. The day before, on Thursday, the pairings will be announced.

On Friday morning, the four foursome matches tee off. In the afternoon, there will be four fourball matches. This same schedule will be repeated on Saturday, with foursome matches in the morning and fourball matches in the afternoon (Italian time).

Sunday, all 12 golfers from each team will play in singles matches.

Foursome matches involve two teams of team golfers each, alternating shots in match play. Fourball matches also involve two teams of two golfers each, but all golfers play their own ball through the completion of the hole, with the best individual score counting for the team.

Ryder Cup Betting Preview

The Teams

The Europeans boast three of the top four golfers in the world, with Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Viktor Hovland. The United States, however, has eight of the world’s best 15 players, compared to just six for Europe. Australian Cameron Smith is the outlier, ranked 11th in the world.

Each team has four Ryder Cup rookies, and the U.S. is without 2021 stalwarts Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau, who made the move to LIV. Justin Thomas is back from 2021, but he has been struggling this year and perhaps shouldn’t have been used for the captain’s pick.

American Scottie Scheffler is the No. 1 ranked player in the world, but the Europeans, with Hovland, have the hottest golfer in the world. Hovland ended the season with wins at the BMW and Tour Championship, winning the FedEx Cup playoffs and the $18 million prize. He also finished in the top 10 at the PGA Championship, the Masters, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship.

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WagerHome BlogRyder Cup Betting Preview

Best Bets for NFL Week 3

by WagerHome Blog on September 21, 2023

Best Bets for NFL Week 3

Television ratings are up, attendance is up, and the beginning of the NFL season has seen a significant rise in wagering. There are nine teams that have yet to lose a game in 2023, and nine teams that have yet to lose a point spread bet.

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-6.5)

The Broncos played an excellent first half of football last week, and a terrible second half. They are 0-2, many of the problems that plagued the Nathaniel Hackett-led Broncos, are still a problem a year later with Sean Payton as the head coach.

The Dolphins are firing on all cylinders, and have played eight good quarters of football in two road wins, and two road covers. Now they are at home in Miami for the first time this season, and they are a top bet to win by more than a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

Best Bets for NFL Week 3

After a big win on the road at the Bengals, and their second cover of the season, the Ravens return home in sole possession of first place in the AFC North. Only two teams in the AFC are unbeaten, and the Ravens, with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, are one of them.

Lamar Jackson looks more and more comfortable in the offense, and even though the Ravens are starting to be hit by injuries, the Indianapolis Colts are down to backup quarterback Gardner Minshew for this one. Minshew is a fine backup, but he limits the offense, and the Colts prospects at covering the spread. Look for the Ravens to win this game by double digits.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-2)

In each of his first two starts this season, Packers quarterback Jordan Love has thrown for at least three touchdown passes. Last year as the Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had just a single three-touchdown game.

The Packers offense has been really good through two weeks on the road, and now they play at Lambeau Stadium for the first time this year, against an offense not playing as well. Alvin Kamara still has two more games on his suspension, and that will continue to handicap the Saints.

The Packers will respond to the home crowd, Love will have another big game, and Green Bay will cover.

Dallas Cowboys (-12) at Arizona Cardinals

Both the Cowboys and Cardinals have started 2-0 against the spread, but that is where the similarities end. Dallas has beaten the spread by a combined 49 points, and they have outscored their opponents 70-10.

Arizona has beat the spread by a combined five points over two losses, and just played one of the worst halves of football, ever, in losing to the Giants. The Cowboys will roll by two touchdowns or more.

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WagerHome BlogBest Bets for NFL Week 3

MLB Pennant Races In Final Stretch

by WagerHome Blog on September 19, 2023

With less than two weeks left to go in MLB regular season, four teams have clinched playoff spots.

The Atlanta Braves have clinched the National League East, the Los Angeles Dodgers have clinched the National League West, and both the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays are guaranteed at least a wild card spot in the American League. The Orioles and Rays still have their sights on winning the American League East, and it’s important to note that Baltimore owns the tiebreaker, should that factor in naming a division champion.

This is the first year of MLB’s new 12-team playoff format that will see the top two seeds in each league automatically advance to the Division Series, with the other four teams in each league playing a best-of-three Wild Card Series, with the division winner hosting all three games.

MLB Division Races

Heading into play on Tuesday, the Orioles had a 2.5-game lead in the American League East. The winner of the East will almost certainly be the top seed in the A.L., while the runner-up will drop to the fourth seed.

The Minnesota Twins had a seven-game lead in the A.L. Central, and they are the only team in the division that is over .500.

The American League West is the best division race in baseball, with the Astros clinging to a 1.5-game lead over both the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. The Astros own the tiebreaker over the Rangers, the Mariners have the tiebreaker over Houston, and Texas has it over Seattle.

The N.L. Central is the only other MLB division up for grabs, but Milwaukee entered Tuesday with a six-game lead over the Cubs and Reds, and their magic number to clinch the division is 7.


Wild Card Races

Between the Orioles and Rays, whichever team doesn’t win the division will be the top wild-card team in the American League, locking them into the fourth seed. The race for the final two wild card spots is between three teams – the Toronto Blue Jays and the two teams that don’t win the A.L. West.

The Blue Jays have a one-game lead over the Mariners and Rangers, but they lose the tiebreaker to both teams.

In the National League, the top wild card team is the Philadelphia Phillies, with a 3.5-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Behind Arizona by just a half-game are the Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, and Florida Marlins. And two games further back are the San Francisco Giants.

Of those five teams behind the Phillies, three of them will miss the MLB playoffs.

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WagerHome BlogMLB Pennant Races In Final Stretch

Week 2 NFL Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 14, 2023

In NFL Week 1, the Detroit Lions got the win that justified their preseason hype. The San Francisco 49ers looked like the best team in the NFL, with the Dallas Cowboys right behind them. While the Seattle Seahawks underperformed massively, as did the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills.

It was a wild week in the greatest reality show on earth, and Week 2 promises more of the same.

NFL Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (+9) at Buffalo Bills

Where is the respect for the Raiders? They were four-point underdogs last week in Denver, and Las Vegas won the NFL game outright by stretching out of their time of possession and limiting the number of times the Broncos had the ball.

Now they are nine-point underdogs at b, a team that just lost to a reeling Jets team. If ever there was a win there for the taking, it was the Bills at the Jets, and they couldn’t get it done. Buffalo will probably get the win this week, but the spread is much too big. Look for the Raiders to cover.

NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Another underdog worth taking this week is the Baltimore Ravens. They covered the spread at home in Week 1, and now they get their top rival for the AFC North crown, a Bengals team that looked terrible at Cleveland.

Joe Burrow won’t be nearly as bad as he was last week, but the offensive line is a real concern. Instead of the new and improved line we were promised, they were a major liability. Baltimore will be able to exploit that and keep this game close.

At 2.5 points, you might want to avoid this game, but when the Ravens are getting more than a field goal, take it.


NFL Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams had an excellent showing in their Week 1 win at Seattle, and the offensive explosion came without Cooper Kupp. Turns out Matthew Stafford is still a very good quarterback, and Sean McVay is a very good NFL coach.

But, did you see the 49ers in Pittsburgh? They dominated the Steelers on both sides of the ball, and there is no reason to think that they can’t do the same at SoFi Stadium this weekend. And when you consider that the 49ers have covered each of the last seven games against their rival Rams, this bet becomes obvious.

The Rams are better than we thought, but they are still a young team that will struggle against the completeness of the 49ers. San Francisco wins this game and covers the spread.

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WagerHome BlogWeek 2 NFL Betting Preview

The Fallout From the Aaron Rodgers Injury

by WagerHome Blog on September 12, 2023

It was the most anticipated home opener in the history of the New York Jets. It was the anniversary of 9/11, the Jets were debuting a Hall of Fame quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, who came running out of the tunnel carrying an American flag, and finally, after years of being cursed, the Jets were going to be an elite team.

Then, just four plays into Rodgers’ career in New York, it was over. His Achilles tendon was torn, and his season had ended.

Aaron Rodgers Injury: The Jets Super Bowl Chances

Within minutes of the injury, the futures bet on a Jets run to the Super Bowl dropped from +1800 to +2700. And by the end of the night, as the severity of the injury became more sure, those odds dropped all the way to +5500.

New York still has a great defense, as evidenced by their win on Monday night in spite of the injury, but Zach Wilson doesn’t look any better at quarterback than he has in his previous two seasons. As far as being a Super Bowl contender, this team is done.

The Green Bay Packers Fallout

While the blow to the Jets is obviously the greatest, the injury to Rodgers also affects the Green Bay Packers. In the trade that sent Rodgers to New York, the Packers got back a conditional 2024 draft pick that would become a first-round pick if Rodgers played 65% of the snaps. That is no longer a possibility, so instead of the 2024 pick being a first, it will be a second-round pick.

Green Bay received first- and second-round picks in this past draft, which became defensive end Lukas Van Ness and tight end Luke Musgrave.

The Fallout From the Aaron Rodgers Injury

Monday Night Bettors Revolt

With such a high-profile player leading off the first Monday Night Football game of the season, many sportsbooks offered special proposition bets, boosters, and same-game parlays.

Most of the sportsbooks are refunding the Rodgers specific bets, like overs on passing yards, touchdowns, etc. And if Rodgers was used in a leg of a same-game parlay, those bets are also being refunded. If, however, you bet the under, those are being treated like wins.

FanDuel and Pointsbet did not offer any refunds and were very clear about their posted rules. FanDuel wrote on social media;

“Due to regulatory requirements, all bets will be settled in accordance with our house rules. Unfortunately we will not be offering a bad beat on this occasion.”

Bettors were quick to complain, but FanDuel isn’t budging.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogThe Fallout From the Aaron Rodgers Injury

NFL Week 1 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 7, 2023

NFL Week 1 Betting Preview

It is finally here. All 32 NFL teams will have played their Week 1 games by the time the Bills and Jets finish things out on Monday, and the road to the Super Bowl will officially be underway.

The American Gaming Association conducted its annual preseason study, and over the course of the 272-game regular season, 73.5 million adult Americans are planning to wager on one, many, or all of the games.

Raise your hand if you are one of the 73.5 million. Now put your hand down so you can scroll through our betting preview.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-10)

There are reasons to be excited about the Texans. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud should be fun, and rookie pass rusher Will Anderson is going to be a beast. But they are rookies, playing for a rookie head coach.

The Baltimore Ravens have a healthy MVP candidate at quarterback, and a wide receiver room that has more talent than at any time in the Lamer Jackson era. The offensive line is healthy, J.K. Dobbins is back, and the Ravens are a serious Super Bowl contender, if that health can hold.

Baltimore is an elite team, and they will win their home opener by two touchdowns or more.

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Neither of the South divisions are going to be good this year, but the Saints look like the best team in the NFC South. They should also get plenty of wins against the AFC South, with the exception being the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Saints have the better defense, the better quarterback, and with the health of Michael Thomas, the better wide receivers. Derrick Henry is not going to be enough for the Titans to keep this close. The Saints offense looks good with Derek Carr, Chris Olave, and Thomas. They will look good on Sunday at home, and cover the field goal spread.

NFL Week 1

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+2.5)

Monday night at MetLife will be the loudest regular season game ever for the Jets. Generations of Jets frustration will be let out, as they welcome Aaron Rodgers to town.

The stars are too aligned to make New York home underdogs, so we’re taking the points. Keep in mind that with Zach Wilson at quarterback, the Jets defense orchestrated an upset of the Bills last year.

Without Von Miller the Buffalo pass rush won’t be a factor, and Rodgers, recognizing the importance of winning the opener against the defending division champion, will respond. Take the Jets and the points.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 1 Betting Preview

NFL 2023 Kickoff Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 5, 2023

Give yourself a round of applause. You have survived another NFL offseason. On Thursday, the new 2023 season kicks off in Kansas City, as the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs hang their banner with the Detroit Lions in town.

The NFL moved to a single-game Thursday kickoff in 2002, and since 2004, it has been a tradition to have that game hosted by the defending Super Bowl champions. There will be concerts, a larger-than-normal tailgate at Arrowhead Stadium, and a full celebration of the 272 games of the regular season to come.

Amid all the pomp and circumstance, there will be a football game. A pretty good football game at that. And there will be NFL betting.

NFL Week 1: Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

If there is one team that is impossible to hate, it is the Detroit Lions. Their starting quarterback, Jared Goff, is engaged to a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model. Their head coach is ranked No. 1 on everyone’s list of “want to have a beer with.” Their fans have been battered by bad teams since the 1950s, yet they remain loyal.

There is something about the city of Detroit and something about the Lions that you want to root for.

And to top it off, they are actually a good team. They are favored to win the NFC North because they have one of the best offenses in the NFL. We won’t see Jameson Williams to begin the season, but in the age of diminishing running back returns, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is an exciting one to watch.


The Kansas City Chiefs are also a pretty good team. For each of the five years that Partick Mahomes has been the quarterback, they have hosted the AFC Championship Game. Twice, they have won the Super Bowl with Mahomes, and they are the preseason betting favorite to win a third.

Chris Jones remains a holdout, which will hurt the Chiefs pass rush. Can the Lions take advantage of that? Maybe, on offense. But the Chiefs offense should have its way with a suspect Lions defense.

Game Pick: Chiefs (-7)

Andy Reid is 9-1 in Week 1 as the head coach of the Chiefs, 5-0 with Mahomes as the starting quarterback, and Mahomes has 18 Week 1 touchdown passes and no interceptions.

In these five season-openers, the Chiefs have won them all by an average of 13 points, and four of the five wins were by at least 10 points. Go with the Chiefs at home.

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We have 18 weeks of the NFL coming up, then four more rounds of postseason play. Plus, college football is in its second week, the baseball pennant races are as hot as ever, and then basketball and hockey will be here on a nightly basis.

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WagerHome BlogNFL 2023 Kickoff Betting Preview