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MLB Playoffs Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 29, 2020

It wasn’t that long ago that we weren’t even sure there would be a 2020 Major League Baseball season. Or after several positive COVID-19 tests, that the season would finish. But here we are about to begin the biggest postseason baseball has ever had as the MLB Playoffs begin on Tuesday.

We have more teams, more games, and more excitement for October baseball than ever before. And with legalized gambling sweeping the nation, this postseason will also see more action than ever before.

We have a full eight series in the Wild Card round just waiting to be wagered.

MLB Wild Card Series Odds

American League

Tampa Bay Rays (-210) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+170)
Oakland Athletics (-135) vs. Chicago White Sox (+110)
Minnesota Twins (-120) vs. Houston Astros (+100)
New York Yankees (-135) vs. Cleveland Indians (+110)

National League

Los Angeles Dodgers (-300) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+240)
Atlanta Braves (-125) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+105)
Chicago Cubs (-190) vs. Miami Marlins (+160)
San Diego Padres (-175) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+145)

All Wild Card series are best-of-three.

Series Notes

There are some things to take note of as these brief series get underway.

The Yankees are just the fifth seed, and they lost six of their final eight games. But even with that, they are still favorites from the oddsmakers to make it all the way to the ALCS, and they are the third most likely team to win the World Series.

Game 1 features Cy Young favorite Shane Bieber against Gerrit Cole, and it will go a long way to deciding who takes this series.

Because of the expanded playoffs, some teams are playing that perhaps shouldn’t. The Miami Marlins, with a minus-41 run differential and just the 21st-best ERA in baseball (4.86), are one such team.

The last time the Marlins faced the Cubs in the postseason, the world was introduced to Steve Bartman. With no fans at the games, he will definitely not be on hand to give the Marlins an extra out. But even if he were, it’s hard to see it helping keep the Marlins’ perfect postseason record (two appearances, two World Series titles) intact.

Keep an eye on the Braves and Reds. The seventh-seeded Reds have a .212 batting average – the lowest ever for a playoff team, and the second lowest in the history of baseball. But their top three starting pitchers are as good as anyone, and much better and more consistent than No. 2 seed Atlanta’s.

A couple of long balls for Cincinnati, and a couple of dominant performances on the mound, and this could be the upset of the Wild Card round.

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NCAA Football Best Weekend Bets

by WagerHome Blog on September 24, 2020

The college football season rolls into what is officially week 4, but for many teams, this will be our first chance to see them on the field.

The players and coaches aren’t sure what to expect after the long layoff, which adds an extra layer of intrigue as we pick the games and point spreads that provide the most value for your betting dollar.

Florida (-14.5) at Ole Miss

Continuity is the key, as Florida returns quarterback Kyle Trask. He gives the Gators a major leg up on Ole Miss, which has a new quarterback learning a new system from new head coach Lane Kiffin.

Ole Miss had the worst pass defense in the SEC a year ago, and it has done almost nothing to improve it. Florida will have its way with the Rebels on the offensive side of the ball and win this game going away. Give the points. Florida covers easily.

Missouri (+28.5) vs. Alabama

Alabama kicks off its campaign with a trip to Columbia, Mo., to face Missouri and its new head coach, Eli Drinkwitz. Missouri is missing almost its entire passing attack from a year ago, but it does still have running back Larry Roundtree, and Drinkwitz wants to run the ball.

Alabama will look every bit the No. 2 team in the nation on offense and will win by at least three touchdowns. But the Crimson Tide’s defense is young, Mizzou’s run game is solid, and the Tigers will manage to cover against Alabama’s backups in the fourth quarter. Go with Missouri and the points.

Louisville (+2.5) at Pittsburgh

In one of the best matchups of the weekend, Louisville looks to rebound from its loss to Miami with a trip to Pittsburgh. Pitt is the higher-ranked team (No. 21 to No. 24) and is 2-0, but those wins came against Austin Peay and Syracuse. And it’s worth noting that against Syracuse, the Panthers didn’t come close to covering the spread.

Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham tightens up the turnovers and leads the Cardinals to victory. Put your money on Louisville.

Kansas State (+27) at Oklahoma

No. 3 Oklahoma is a big favorite at home, as it should be after crushing Missouri State last week. But Kansas State is better than the team that lost at home to Arkansas State.

The Wildcats are being undersold here. Four times last season, Kansas State was a road underdog, and three times it ended up covering the spread.

Oklahoma will win this game easily, but the Wildcats will cover.

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NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions

by WagerHome Blog on September 22, 2020

The traditional overreactions to Week 1 in the NFL were set right with Week 2. The Buccaneers offense is good, as we thought in August.

The Colts could still be a playoff team, despite that early loss to Jacksonville. And the Cowboys are definitely the class of the NFC East.

As we head into Week 3, it’s now injuries that are driving the major narratives, with teams all over the league facing life without many of their star players. And of course, that injury report informs our betting choices for this weekend’s slate of games.

Arizona Cardinals (-6) vs. Detroit Lions

The Cardinals are not only a relatively healthy team; they look fantastic. There isn’t much that Kyler Murray can’t do, and or much of a chance that the Lions defense is going to slow him down. Detroit just made Mitchell Trubisky look competent, so they’re going to make Murray feel like an MVP candidate.

The Cardinals look like a playoff team. The Lions look to be headed toward a coaching change. Take Arizona and give the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) vs. Houston Texans

Another healthy team is the Steelers, and Ben Roethlisberger looks completely healthy after missing all of last year. He has a host of stud wide receivers to throw to and is backed up by one of the best defenses in the league.

On the other side, the Texans aren’t stopping anyone on defense, and on offense, they’re still waiting for someone to step into the playmaker role that was vacated by DeAndre Hopkins.

It’s a tough start to the season, facing Kansas City and Baltimore out of the gate. It doesn’t get much easier against the Steelers. Take Pittsburgh to cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) at Denver Broncos

The Broncos are now without quarterback Drew Lock and top wide receiver Courtland Sutton and are fading fast in the AFC West. They will fall to 0-3 this week, and the continually improving offense of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers will make this one a blowout.

In August, Denver looked like a possible contender. Ravaged by injuries a month later, Tampa Bay covers this one easily.

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills

When you watch the Rams of 2020, it’s easy to remember how this team made it to the Super Bowl following the 2018 season. The offense looks smooth, Jared Goff once again looks like a No. 1 overall pick, and Aaron Donald makes everything more difficult for opponents.

The Bills have looked solid but against terrible competition. Josh Allen will struggle more than he has this year, and the Rams will cover this spread.

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Best NFL Teams to Bet in Week 2

by WagerHome Blog on September 17, 2020

One of the biggest things to remember after Week 1 is that this is the most unusual of opening weekends for the NFL. Most reactions to what we saw are overreactions.

This is the first time anyone has started a regular season with no actual live game action, and what we think we know today may be completely turned on its head by next Tuesday morning.

That, of course, doesn’t mean we’re taking a week off from betting, or that we can’t look at the lines for this weekend and not see real value.

Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles

After seeing what Washington’s defensive line did to the Eagles offensive line, imagine the field day that Aaron Donald is going to have.

The Eagles looked absolutely lost in the final three quarters of their loss last Sunday, while the Rams established themselves as one to watch going forward. The quick passing game from Jared Goff and at least two sacks from Donald will lead the Rams to victory.

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Washington Football Team

No doubt about it, Kyler Murray is a star, and DeAndre Hopkins is in for a big season. If the two can look that connected against a defense like the 49ers, imagine what they can do against the rest of the league.

Washington’s defensive line was great against Carson Wentz, but Murray will run all over them. Take Arizona to cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers is never boring; you can say that much for him. But with Marlon Mack now gone for the season, Rivers simply isn’t capable of carrying this offense at this point in his career.

For the Vikings, we’re not going to overreact to their horrible three quarters against Green Bay. They put up 24 points in the fourth quarter, showing the world the Minnesota offense that we all expect to see. They will play a much more complete game at Indianapolis.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) at Tennessee Titans

Even with the assumption that the Titans will iron out their kicking woes and not leave so many points on the field, this game feels like it will stay close throughout. The Titans offense is good, but it’s built to plod and shorten the game’s possessions.

Meanwhile, the purge in Jacksonville hasn’t left the cupboard completely bare. Gardner Minshew is more than just a fun guy with a mustache – he’s a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. Take the Jags and the points.

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2020 US Open Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 15, 2020

Our patience through the lean sports days of COVID-19 are being rewarded in spades. As if the NBA and NHL playoffs, the final weeks of the MLB season, and the opening week of the NFL isn’t enough, how about we add a major golf championship to that mix of sports betting delights?

It’s the 120th US Open, returning to Winged Foot for the first time since 2006, where over par is expected to once again be what the champion shoots. Historically speaking, this is the most difficult course that has hosted the US Open, with four of its five winners finishing the 72nd hole above par.

As for the favorite to be the last man standing on Sunday, it’s Dustin Johnson by quite a wide margin.

US Open Odds to Win

Dustin Johnson (+650)
Jon Rahm (+1100)
Xander Schauffele (+1400)
Rory McIlroy (+1400)
Justin Thomas (+1400)
Bryson Dechambeau (+1800)
Webb Simpson (+2000)
Collin Morikawa (+2000)
Tiger Woods (+2800)
Patrick Cantlay (+2800)
Tony Finau (+2800)

Absent from this list is the defending champion, Gary Woodland. He’s on the board at +5000 to defend his title.

The problem with Woodland is that he hasn’t won on tour since that win at Pebble Beach in 2019. He hasn’t had a bad year, with seven top-10 finishes. It’s just not enough to make him a favorite.

Tiger Woods at +2800 is an interesting number. It’s worth noting that at the 2006 US Open at Winged Foot, he failed to make the cut. However, he does come into it this year nice and rested since he missed the Tour Championship.

If you have a soft spot for history, you might consider Phil Mickelson at +8000. The US Open is the one grand slam he hasn’t won.

If Mickelson were to win at Winged Foot, he would be the oldest winner of the US Open and just the sixth golfer to win the career grand slam.

One golfer you want to avoid is Rory McIlroy at +1400. For a guy who has just one top-10 finish since June, he is far too high on this list of favorites.

His driving accuracy has also been at an all-time low for him, making the tough rough at Winged Foot even rougher for him. If there is a top-10 favorite as a threat to miss the cut, it’s McIlroy.

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Fantasy Football Gems Worth Owning For NFL Week 1

by WagerHome Blog on September 10, 2020

By now, you’ve had your fantasy draft, you’ve made a few bets on the NFL’s opening weekend, and you’ve done some digging on your best daily fantasy sports options. Of course, everyone already knows that Christian McCaffrey is a stud, Lamar Jackson is going to put up mad points, and in PPR leagues, there is no wide receiver as valuable as Michael Thomas.

The key to winning, though, is finding last year’s Kenyan Drake, DeVante Parker, and Jared Cook – all guys who took major and unexpected leaps in 2019.

Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Much of the preseason hype has revolved around Chiefs rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He is the top of the depth chart in Kansas City and will benefit greatly from Andy Reid’s screen game.

But Darrel Williams also has great value. Edwards-Helaire is still just a rookie, is still learning pass blocking schemes, and is awfully small for consistent goal-line carries. Williams, on the other hand, is the experienced big body first in line to pilfer those goal-line scores.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It seems crazy to call a future Hall of Fame quarterback a hidden gem, but that is exactly where Ben Roethlisberger is right now. He’s 38 and coming off major arm surgery, and that has him largely ignored in most fantasy formats.

Don’t make that same mistake. All signs say he’s healthy, and if you remember his last full season in 2018, he threw for more than 5,000 yards.

Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins

A lot of people are sleeping on Preston Williams. He’s coming off an injury in 2019, the Dolphins offense is a mess, and he’s going to lose targets to DeVante Parker.

All of those things are true, but what is also true is that prior to getting hurt, he was having a great rookie season. He’s now back, and he’s cheap. And he’s almost certain to outperform his draft position and DFS cost.

Chris Herndon, TE, New York Jets

A suspension and rib injury held Chris Herndon to just one game last year, and it netted him one catch for seven yards. With reason, he is one of the last tight ends coming off the board or still sitting as a free agent.

But he’s incredibly talented, has been having a great camp, and when quarterbacks don’t have big downfield threats, they lean on their tight ends. Expect Sam Darnold to lean on Herndon, and do it early.

Herndon is going to be great this season, and in a matchup against Buffalo’s secondary in Week 1, he should see even more targets than usual.

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NFL is Back! Five Teams to Bet to Get off to a Great Start

by WagerHome Blog on September 8, 2020

After seven long months of no NFL, starting this weekend, we get all the NFL we could possibly want. Great catches, crunching hits, questionable play calls, and, of course, the best sports betting anywhere on planet Earth!

With no OTAs, no preseason, and a truncated training camp, we’ve never entered a new season knowing so little. But what we do know can be used to our advantage.

Top Five Teams to Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) at New York Giants

The Giants have perhaps the worst roster in the league and a new head coach. The Steelers have a great defense, Ben Roethlisberger, and continuity at head coach.

That will be the theme here in the early going. New coaches, new players, and new systems take time to gel.

We are going to see a larger number of blowouts here in the early going because of the weird offseason, and this will be one of them. Take the Steelers, lay the points.

Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Chicago Bears

Before Matthew Stafford got hurt last year, he was having a great season. The Bears, on the other hand, are still rolling out Mitchell Trubisky after Nick Foles failed to beat him out for the starting job. That’s not good.

Detroit had the better offseason and has the much better quarterback. The Lions are a sleeper to challenge for a playoff spot, and you should take them to cover here.

Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The roster purge in Jacksonville has left the cupboard bare. Meanwhile, the Colts have a new gunslinger under center, one of the best offensive lines in football, and a defense more than capable against Gardner Minshew and whoever else is left in Jacksonville.

Take the Colts and Philip Rivers to win this in a blowout and easily cover the 7.5 points.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Two teams with two new quarterbacks. There will be growing pains for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, but with no Derwin James to face in the Chargers secondary, he’ll have fewer pains to start.

On the other sideline, Tyrod Taylor has Keenan Allen, but the health of Mike Williams is a big question mark headed into Sunday.

This feels like a field goal win for the Chargers, which is why the Bengals at home getting the points are the better bet.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are still an AFC favorite and expect them to win here. But the Browns offense is now under the direction of Kevin Stefanski, and the offensive line is much better.

They will stick with the Ravens in this one and score against a Baltimore secondary now without Earl Thomas. Baltimore wins, but take the points and the Browns.

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Fantasy Options For The NFL Season Opener

by WagerHome Blog on September 3, 2020

We’ve made it. Almost. Unlike the delay for the baseball season and the interruptions to the NBA and NHL, it looks as though the NFL is going to kick off its season on time (fingers and toes crossed).

The rematch of the wildest playoff game last January – Kansas City’s 51-31 comeback against Houston – is set for Sept. 10 in front of limited fans at Arrowhead.

If you’re looking to this game for fantasy purposes, quarterback play is an obvious route. Two of the top five quarterbacks in the league will be slinging it in the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Texans’ Deshaun Watson.

But beyond quarterback, who are the best plays?

Houston Texans

David Johnson, RB

It’s been several years since David Johnson was a fantasy stud, and over the long haul, he’s a risky play because of his injury history. But he’s going against a suspect run defense, and because of the price Bill O’Brien paid to get Johnson (trading away superstar DeAndre Hopkins), there is no way he’s going to let Johnson go unused.

Johnson is going to be featured early and often, and fantasy players have their best chance to take advantage of his high touches here in Week 1.

Will Fuller, WR

With Hopkins gone, the Houston wide receiving corps turns to Will Fuller to lead. Along with his 89 yards against the Chiefs in the playoffs, Fuller had some absolutely monster games last season, including 217 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons, and 140 yards against Indianapolis.

Suspensions have the Chiefs secondary beginning the year short-handed, and Fuller will find plenty of holes to work.

Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce, TE

He’s already on your radar as a top fantasy option, but when it comes to playing the Texans, Travis Kelce absolutely feasts. In six career games against Houston, he has 41 receptions for 558 yards and five touchdowns.

He loves playing them, and there is simply no one on the Texans defense that can contain him. Whatever it takes, get Kelce into your lineup for this matchup.

Mecole Hardman, WR

If you can play Tyreek Hill, play Tyreek Hill. But if you’re looking for a cheaper option or are deciding between Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman, go with the second-year man out of Georgia.

The speedy Hardman averaged more than 20 yards per catch as a rookie and is in line to make a big leap in 2020. The Texans’ pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and Hardman will get at least one long score in this game.

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Tour Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 1, 2020

Outside of Chicago at the FedEx Cup semifinals last week, it was Jon Rahm taking the 72-hole victory. But that victory was not enough to pull him past Dustin Johnson, who remains the Cup leader as the final 30 golfers head to the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

The standings heading into the final are not a mere formality. They come with a very real stroke advantage for the golfers based on how they are ranked.

Each of them, according to the standings, will begin play on Thursday with a score already related to par. It starts with No. 1 Dustin Johnson at -10, No. 2 Jon Rahm at -8, No. 3 Justin Thomas at -7, and on it goes.

Top 10 According to the Odds

There are a couple of different things you can bet on this weekend as it relates to winning. You can bet on the winner of the Tour Championship without the bonus strokes (the first odds posted), or you can bet on the winner, including the bonus strokes (the second number posted).

Here are the top 10 golfers this week, ranked by the odds to win the tournament without the bonus strokes.

Jon Rahm (+500/+250)
Dustin Johnson (+500/+188)
Justin Thomas (+900/+500)
Rory McIlroy (+1000/+2500)
Webb Simpson (+1100/+1000)
Xander Schauffele (+1100/+2500)
Bryson DeChambeau (+1600/+2200)
Collin Morikawa (+1800/+2000)
Daniel Berger (+1800/+2800)
Tony Finau (+1800/+6000)

Coming off the strength of his win last weekend, Jon Rahm is tied with Dustin Johnson as the straight-up winner in Atlanta. But when you factor in the two strokes that Johnson has earned over the season, he is the favorite at +188.

Remove last weekend’s second round from Daniel Berger’s total, and he played quite well. He starts this tournament six shots back, but with his solid iron play, he could easily make that up over 72 holes. Paying +2800 makes him an intriguing play.

Webb Simpson also makes for an interesting play. He skipped Chicago to rest up for Atlanta but still only starts four strokes back.

There’s no denying the season he’s had, with wins at the RBC Heritage and Phoenix Open and a total of eight Top 10 finishes. At +1100/+1000, he makes for good value no matter which direction you want to take your bet.

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MLB Wild Card Series Odds

Series Notes

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Florida (-14.5) at Ole Miss

Missouri (+28.5) vs. Alabama

Louisville (+2.5) at Pittsburgh

Kansas State (+27) at Oklahoma

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Arizona Cardinals (-6) vs. Detroit Lions

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) vs. Houston Texans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) at Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills

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Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Washington Football Team

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) at Tennessee Titans

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US Open Odds to Win

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Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins

Chris Herndon, TE, New York Jets

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Top Five Teams to Bet

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Houston Texans

Kansas City Chiefs

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Top 10 According to the Odds

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