Cook Out Southern 500

Cook Out Southern 500 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 31, 2022

With the regular season ending in the rain at Daytona, and a surprise victory by Austin Dillon, NASCAR moves on to the playoffs and the round of 16 in Darlington for the Cook Out Southern 500.

By virtue of his rain-delayed win, in which he had to retake the lead in the final three laps, Dillon is in the final field of 16. Ryan Blaney also got in by finishing the race in 15th place – the lone driver in the playoffs who did not record a victory this season.

Martin Truex Jr. lost out on that final spot, and he is now racing the rest of the season with no chance to win a championship.

Favorites to Win Cook Out Southern 500

  • Kyle Larson (+600)
  • Denny Hamlin (+700)
  • Chase Elliott (+800)
  • Joey Logano (+800)
  • Ross Chastain (+800)
  • Tyler Reddick (+800)
  • Kyle Busch (+900)
  • Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)
  • Ryan Blaney (+1400)
  • William Byron (+1400)

Leading the pack is Kyle Larson, and why not. He is the defending Cup Series champion, and in his last four Cook Out Southern 500 races at Darlington, he has three top-five finishes. His engine let him down at Daytona last week, but he was the winner the week before at Watkins Glen, giving him ten top-five finishes in 2022.

Since 2019 Denny Hamlin has raced at Darlington seven times, and he has two wins and four top-five finishes, which includes his win at Cook Out Southern 500 last year. He also didn’t finish last week’s race at Daytona, but he began the month of August with a third-place finish in Michigan and a fourth-place finish in Richmond.

Cook Out Southern 500

Chase Elliott is your overall points leader, and he’s been so good all season that it seems like it’s been ages since he last won. In reality, it was only July 24th when he won at Pocono. He had two top-five finishes in August, but he’s only third on the Cook Out Southern 500 odds board because of an up-and-down history at Darlington.

Elliott finished fifth here back in May, but at Cook Out Southern 500 a year ago, he was 31st. He was 20th at this race in 2020 and 19th in 2019.

The last of the favorites worth an extra look is Joey Logano, who finished the regular season just 15 points behind Elliott. And unlike the man he has been chasing all season, he does have a good history at Darlington. He won here in May, was eighth last September, and he has four other top-five finishes in his career on this track at the Cook Out Southern 500.

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WagerHome BlogCook Out Southern 500 2022 Betting Preview
NCAA Football Week 1 Betting Picks

NCAA Football Week 1 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on August 30, 2022

NCAA football fans got a little taste of the season to come last weekend with a thriller in Dublin, Ireland, where Northwestern came from behind to beat Nebraska. Illinois, Florida State, and North Carolina all got easy wins, and Vanderbilt went out to Hawaii and got a 63-10 victory.

But that was only Week 0. This is now officially Week 1, and all 25 of the nation’s Top-25 teams are in action, beginning on Thursday at Oklahoma State and finishing up on Monday night with Clemson and Georgia Tech.

NCAA Football Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

West Virginia (+7.5) at No. 17 Pittsburgh – Thursday

This is the 105th playing of the Backyard Brawl, but just the first since 2011. So while history can’t tell us about these two specific sets of players, we do know that four of the last five meetings have been decided by four points or less.

It will be rocking in Pittsburgh, and the Panthers probably win this game, but they will fall short of covering the touchdown spread. Take the Mountaineers.

Colorado State at No. 8 Michigan (-30.5) – Saturday

Here are the numbers that matter to you. Last season Michigan was 11-3-0 against the spread and 5-1 when that spread was more than two touchdowns.

On the other side, Colorado State was just 4-8-0 against the spread, and they lost their final six games of the season ATS.

CSU is ranked right around 95 in the country. Michigan is eighth. This is going to be a bloodbath that has the Wolverines covering no later than the third quarter.

No. 11 Oregon (+17.5) at No. 3 Georgia – Saturday

Considering that the Bulldogs lost 15 players to the NFL this past season, putting them as more than a two-touchdown favorite against a very good Oregon team is quite the leap.

Georgia is still loaded with talent, but they are a far greater unknown than a lot of teams because of their huge roster turnover.

You may want to roll with the Bulldogs most of the NCAA season, but this week look for the Ducks to cover.

No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 2 Ohio State (-17) – Saturday

It’s another huge spread for a game that, on paper, looks much closer than 17 points. But we know what we have in Ohio State, and it’s an offense led by C.J. Stroud that is going to put up points at will.

Notre Dame’s situation is far less certain, and their key players – like quarterback Tyler Buchner – are far less experienced.

In November, you might take the Irish to cover this spread. Right out of the gate and in Columbus, look for the Buckeyes to cover.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football Week 1 Betting Picks
NFL Preseason

NFL Preseason Week 3 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on August 24, 2022

The final week of the NFL preseason is the last chance for players to get into the rhythm for the regular season. It’s also a last chance for the referees to work out their offseason cobwebs, and it’s the last chance for NFL bettors to make a few bucks before 18 straight regular-season Sundays of wall-to-wall point spreads and parlays.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Dallas Cowboys – Friday

This pick is all about incentive. The two quarterbacks in Seattle are fighting for a job, and they will play like it. The Cowboys are playing to not get hurt before their season starts against the Buccaneers.

Seattle’s roster is far better than many people think, and they will cover the three-point spread in Dallas.

New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) – Friday

Mac Jones has looked good for the Patriots, and their defense looked strong in their 20-10 win over the Panthers last week. So look for the Patriots to put things on cruise control for most of this game.

The Raiders, however, are led by new head coach Josh McDaniels, a disciple of Bill Belichick, and he would love to beat his long-time boss.

The Raiders have a new offense, they will spend more time on Friday working on that offense, and that will be enough for them to get the win on Friday and cover the very small point spread.

NFL Preseason

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-4.5) – Saturday

Never before has a Cleveland Browns team wanted to beat the Carolina Panthers more than the Browns do in Week 1 this year. Losing to the quarterback, they dumped in exchange for the quarterback mess they brought into the building will not please a fan base already on edge.

They have talent, they care about this game so that it sets them up well for September 11, and they absolutely want to have a good performance in front of those home fans.

Even if the Bears roll with their starters in this one, the Cleveland defense is simply too good. The Browns will cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (Pick) – Saturday

The Denver Broncos were just annihilated by the Buffalo Bills. It’s only the NFL preseason, but no one likes to get dominated at this level. These players all have pride.

Look for Denver to rebound back at Mile High and do a much better job of slowing the Minnesota offense. These teams played in the NFL preseason last year, and Denver won 33-6. Look for another Broncos win this weekend.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason Week 3 Betting Picks
Tour Championship

Tour Championship 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 23, 2022

This season in golf has been anything but normal. And as we close the book on the 2021-2022 season with the Tour Championship and the awarding of the FedEx Cup, change to the Tour is coming.

In response to the golfers who have defected to LIV golf and the Saudi Arabian-backed exhibition tour, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy are pushing for a series of one-day skilled events spread throughout the PGA calendar. With the golf world focused this week on East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Tour commissioner Jay Monahan is expected to announce the full details later in the week.

As for the golf that’s being played this week, the 30 golfers with a chance to win the Cup will be seeded using Starting Strokes. In this format, adopted in 2019, the field begins with a score based on where they are in the standings.

Favorites to Win Tour Championship

  • Scottie Scheffler (+250)
  • Partick Cantlay (+400)
  • Xander Schauffele (+700)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1100)
  • Will Zalatoris (+1200)
  • Jon Rahm (+1600)
  • Tony Finau (+1800)
  • Sam Burns (+2200)
  • Cameron Smith (+2500)
  • Justin Thomas (+2800)
  • Sungjae Im (+2800)

As the standings leader heading into this week, Scottie Scheffler begins the Tour Championship at 10-under par. That makes him the obvious favorite to win. It should also be noted that in the three previous times this format was used, twice the winner was the golfer who began the tournament in the first place.

Last year’s winner and the defending FedEx Cup champion, Patrick Cantlay, is one of the two previous top-ranked golfers to win. He begins the Tour Championship in second place after winning the BMW last week. He is the first golfer to ever defend one of the FedEx Cup playoff tournaments, and a win this weekend would make him the first ever to defend the Cup.

Tour Championship

The one time someone other than the first-place golfer won the Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup, it was Rory McIlroy who began that tournament in fifth place. He begins this week in a tie for sixth place at -4, so he has six strokes to make up on the leader. If anyone can do it, it’s a two-time FedEx Cup champion.

The champion of The Open, Cameron Smith, sat out the BMW because of a sore hip, and that dropped him three spots in the standings. He begins the Tour Championship at -4, tied with McIlroy, and he is rested and ready to tackle East Lake.

If you’re looking for someone with success on the course at East Lake, Xander Schauffele is your guy. He won here in 2017, and he had a low aggregate score in 2020.

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WagerHome BlogTour Championship 2022 Betting Preview
NFL

NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 17, 2022

Despite it being the NFL preseason, and with so many starters out, the opening full week of NFL football turned in some great performances, great games, and great opportunities to make money wagering.

NFL preseason Week 2 should be more of the same, but better, as each team begins to narrow in on its best players, and they begin to open the playbook just a little more.

Chicago Bears (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks – Thursday

There is disappointment in Seattle, as the quarterback competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock takes a pause for at least one week, with Lock out due to a COVID-19 positive test.

So that means that instead of seeing Lock as the starter against the Bears – Smith was the starter in Week 1 – we’re getting more Smith, followed by Jacob Eason.

That gives the edge to the Bears and Justin Fields, who won at the end in Week 1 at home and are a much better bet to cover the spread late against Eason, who has no chance at regular season playing time in Seattle.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (+2) – Friday

Beware the home underdog. As was mentioned in this space before last week’s games, in the preseason, the underdog wins outright and against the spread at a much higher rate than in the regular NFL season, and this is especially true of home underdogs.

The Panthers will trot out two former starting quarterbacks to play in this game, with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold engaged in two more weeks of quarterback competition. Beyond Mac Jones, the Patriots have Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe, who should never see the field in New England in the regular season.

But it’s time for the Patriots to get a win, and beating the Panthers at home would be a good start.

NFL

San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) at Minnesota Vikings

One of the big winners from Week 1 of the preseason was the 49ers. Trey Lance displayed the arm that had them moving up to take him in the 2021 draft, and it has become clear that he is a top candidate to be a breakout star in 2022.

We’re buying all of the Lance stock we can get, and especially when he and the Niners are more than a field goal underdog in the NFL preseason.

San Francisco won 28-21 in Week 1, and that was with 25 starters resting. So there is no reason to think that they can’t put up a similar performance against the Vikings, who have Kirk Cousins coming off a bout with COVID.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Preview
BMW Championship

BMW Championship 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 16, 2022

The FedEx Cup Playoffs head to the second event of three, as the PGA’s best move to Delaware for the BMW Championship at the South Course at Wilmington Country Club.

Never again do we have to refer to Will Zalatoris as the golfer most likely to get his first win. He finally finished atop the leaderboard on Sunday, and now Zalatoris can go about the business of trying to win the Cup.

Of course, the entirety of the Tour’s top players are here, and the BMW Championship will feel as close to a Major as you can get.

Favorites to Win BMW Championship

  • Rory McIlroy (+1000)
  • Jon Rahm (+1200)
  • Will Zalatoris (+1200)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
  • Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
  • Justin Thomas (+1400)
  • Tony Finau (+1400)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1800)
  • Colin Morikawa (+2000)

Rory McIlroy was not great last week in Memphis, and he failed to make the cut. But this is still Rory McIlroy, and the course in Wilmington matches his strengths perfectly. He is the BMW Championship favorite, and his status is deserved.

Jon Rahn has been fairly absent for the last couple of weeks, but in the opening round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, he led the field in greens in regulation, and he finished on Sunday with a T5.

Will Zalatoris was clear after his win last week that it’s great to have the monkey off his back, but that one win has not satisfied his hunger. Part of that hunger is fueled by just how close he has come in the major championships this season. The other part is how close he is now to winning the end-of-season prize.

BMW Championship

And don’t sleep on Matt Fitzpatrick even though he’s only eighth on the favorites board. The U.S. Open champion was consistently good at the St. Jude last week, going 68-66-67-68.

Others to Consider at the BMW Championship

He’s no longshot, paying +2500, but Sungjae Im does present some good value when you consider that he was a runner-up twice in the last month, and last week he was 12th.

Max Homa is paying +4500, and he’s largely an afterthought this week. But he won the Wells Fargo in May and was T5 at the Memorial in June. He also got off to a great start last week in Memphis – a first round 66 – before he faded at the end.

A true BMW Championship longshot is Keegan Bradley at +7500. But when it comes to similar courses to Wilmington, he’s played well this year. That includes a T7 at the U.S. Open and a T2 at the Wells Fargo.

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WagerHome BlogBMW Championship 2022 Betting Preview
NFL Preseason

NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on August 10, 2022

If you are an experienced NFL bettor, you know the disclaimer that follows. This is the NFL preseason.

There used to be a time when starters would actually play as much as a full quarter of football, or even more. Those days, however, are over. Most of the veteran stars will not see the field in this first week of full preseason play, and perhaps even any of the preseason.

That makes it tough to make accurate picks, which is both good and bad. Bad, because a lot of wagers are just guesses in the NFL preseason. But good, in that the lines bookmakers post are also largely guesses, and that makes for some exploitable point spreads.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – Thursday

It is the most bizarre streak in the history of the NFL. The Ravens have won 20 consecutive NFL preseason football games, and under head coach John Harbaugh they are 12-1 against the spread in the opening week of the preseason.

It’s nuts, winning that many consecutive games you aren’t really even trying to win. But at this point, the Ravens are trying to win, hoping to keep the streak alive. It will be fun to watch Malik Willis play for the Titans in this one but bet on the Ravens to cover the spread.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (+1.5) – Friday

The pick of the Ravens aside, it generally is more profitable to pick underdogs in the preseason. Underdogs have covered the spread 54.2% of the time over the previous two seasons.

Here we have a home dog, and one who is the subject of HBO’s Hard Knocks, which makes us like the Lions even more. Last year’s Hard Knocks team was the Indianapolis Colts, and they won all three of their NFL preseason games.

Go with home dog Lions to cover.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-1) – Friday

The 49ers, with a new young quarterback, will play Trey Lance in their first and third preseason games. They are also expected to play several other starters along with Lance.

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t appeared in an NFL preseason game since 2018, and he won’t be in the field on Friday in San Francisco. For that reason, plus the Packers having to travel, we like the 49ers to cover this nominal point spread.

NFL Preseason

Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (Under 30) – Saturday

Rams coach Sean McVay and Chargers coach Brandon Staley hate the NFL preseason. Their only goal in preseason games is to get them over as quickly as possible. In 2021 the Rams scored 6, 16, and 12 points. The Chargers scored 13, 10, and 0. And when they played head-to-head, the final score was 13-6.

It would be a shock if these teams go over 30 total points. For these two teams, hammer that under.

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St. Jude Championship

FedEx St. Jude Championship 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 9, 2022

The PGA Tour’s regular season has ended, and we now begin the FedEx Cup Playoffs, which start in Memphis at the St. Jude Championship.

There will be a field of 125 this week; next week at the BMW, there will still be 70 golfers in the hunt, and we’ll be down to 30 when the Tour Championship tees off in Atlanta in two weeks’ time.

It’s the official start of elimination golf, but that actually began some time ago and was highlighted last week by Joohyung Kim winning the Wyndham Championship. He shot a final round 61, got his first ever PGA Tour win, and qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Favorites to Win FedEx St. Jude Championship

  • Rory McIlroy (+1000)
  • Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
  • Cameron Smith (+1600)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+1600)
  • Justin Thomas (+1800)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1800)
  • Jon Rahm (+2200)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200)
  • Tony Finau (+2200)
  • Will Zalatoris (+2500)

Rory McIlroy has twice captured the FedEx Cup, and he’s playing for the first time since he finished third at The Open in St. Andrews. He has a pair of top-10 finishes at TPC Southwind and was 12th last year with three straight 66s to finish the tournament.

Leading the FedEx standings is Scottie Scheffler, who has four wins this season, but he hasn’t won since April. Of course, that April win was the Masters, so not too shabby. And he did have a T2 at the U.S. Open.

Cameron Smith is playing for the first time since he lifted the Claret Jug at FedEx St. Jude Championship, and he comes to a course where he shot a 62 last year on his way to a fifth-place finish.

Lower down on the list of FedEx St. Jude Championship favorites is Tony Finau, who won the 3M Open on July 24, then won the Rocket Mortgage Classic on July 31. He’s the hottest golfer on the course, but on this course, he has never done that well. He finished 27th in 2019, 65th in 2020, and 34th in 2021 after a final round 74.

St. Jude Championship

And once again, we are talking about Will Zalatoris, possibly winning the first tournament of his career but now coming off the most tumultuous week of his young career. Last week in the middle of the Wyndham, he fired his caddie, Ryan Gobble. He used his coach, Josh Gregory, on Saturday and Sunday.

Zalatoris called it the “toughest decision I’ve had to make in my golf career.”

Pay Per Head Software

The FedEx Cup Playoffs continue next week at the BMW Championship in Wilmington, Delaware, as the field gets down to 70. We’ve also got a full weekend of NFL preseason football and the heating up of the pennant races in Major League Baseball.

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WagerHome BlogFedEx St. Jude Championship 2022 Betting Preview
Hall of Fame Game

NFL Preseason: Hall of Fame Game Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 3, 2022

The Hall of Fame Game is rarely good.

Starters almost never play, and if they do, it’s only for a handful of plays. Coaches run offenses that would be vanilla by Pop Warner football standards. The only real goal of the evening is to not get hurt.

And none of that matters because it’s live football for the first time in six months, and it feels so good to have it back.

Hall of Fame Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-2)

It is not a coincidence that both the Jaguars and Raiders have former players being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame this weekend. The teams for this game are chosen with the knowledge of that year’s Hall of Fame class, and when possible, a notable inductee will match up with a team playing in the game.

The Raiders have former wide receiver Cliff Branch going into the Hall this weekend, the 18th player in team history to be enshrined. The Jaguars have Tony Boselli, their first-ever member of the Hall of Fame.

Raiders fans are notoriously good travelers, not to mention a much larger fan base than what you see in Jacksonville. There is expected to be a large sea of silver and black at the game, which may be one reason the Raiders are the favorite here.

They are, of course, also coming off a playoff appearance, as compared to the Jaguars, who had the worst record in the NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars News

We do know with certainty that quarterback Trevor Lawrence will not play on Thursday night. New Jags head coach Doug Pederson made the announcement earlier in the week and added;

“Trevor’s been getting a lot of great looks here in practice and we feel he’s in a good spot.”

Jake Luton will get the start.

A bit more surprising was the news that second-year running back Travis Etienne, who missed his entire rookie season, will also miss the game. He was out of practice on Tuesday because of illness, and he will remain out the rest of the week.

Hall of Fame Game

Las Vegas Raiders News

New Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels hasn’t been specific on who will and won’t suit up on Thursday, but we can expect most of their top starters to be in street clothes. The team has suffered a number of injuries along the defensive line, including new EDGE rusher Chandler Jones, and they don’t want to risk anymore.

For McDaniels, however, this Hall of Fame Game is special. McDaniels grew up in Canton, Ohio, and as a high school quarterback, he played in Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium, where he was coached by his dad.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason: Hall of Fame Game Preview
Wyndham Championship

Wyndham Championship 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 2, 2022

Wyndham Championship is the 46th and final PGA Tour event of the 2021-2022 season. That’s one final event for players who are looking to keep their playing status for next season and one final event for players to get into the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

The Wyndham Championship had proven to be an excellent test in recent years, especially last year when six players all finished 72 holes tied atop the leaderboard. In the six-man playoff that followed, it was Kevin Kisner getting the win.

Favorites to Win Wyndham Championship

  • Sungjae Im (+1400)
  • Shane Lowry (+1600)
  • Will Zalatoris (+1600)
  • Billy Horschel (+2000)
  • Russell Henley (+2200)
  • Webb Simpson (+2200)
  • Corey Conners (+2500)
  • Si Woo Kim (+2500)
  • Adam Scott (+3300)
  • Denny McCarthy (+3300)
  • Joohyung Kim (+3300)
  • Taylor Pendrith (+3300)
  • Tyrrell Hatton (+3300)

Sungjae Im is a deserved favorite. He’s coming off a T2 at the 3M, and in three starts at the Wyndham Championship, he has a pair of top-10s. He’s also been a fast starter here, going as low as 62 in his first round.

Will Zalatoris is still looking for his first victory. He was T6 at the Masters, T4 in New Orleans, second at the PGA, and T2 at the U.S. Open. Surely he can parlay those great finishes in bug events to a win in North Carolina. Of course, we say the same thing every week.

Billy Horschel at +2000 deserves a look because of his history here. He did win at the Memorial this season, but at Sedgefield, he has been brilliant over the years.

His last two starts here are second place and sixth place finishes, and overall he has been in the top-11 four different times. In his career, he has won $1,251,176 just at the Wyndham Championship.

Wyndham Championship

Longer Shots to Consider at Wyndham Championship

J.T. Poston is an excellent play at +4000. He won this event in 2019, and just a month ago, he was T2 at the Travelers and a winner at the John Deere Classic. Two weeks ago, he finished T11 at the 3M Open.

Kevin Kisner, the defending champion, is also paying +4000. He was T6 at the Travelers and T21 at The Open Championship. Along with his win here, he also has three other top-10s, including a third-place finish in 2020.

Davis Riley, all the way down at +5000, was second at the Valspar, T4 in New Orleans, fifth at the Mexico Open, T9 at the Byron Nelson, and T4 at the Charles Schwab.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogWyndham Championship 2022 Betting Preview

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