Dixie Vodka 400 NASCAR Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on February 24, 2021

If you’ve been betting the favorites at the start of the 2021 NASCAR season, you haven’t done well. Michael McDowell, a +10000 longshot, drove to victory at Daytona and won his first race in 358 career Cup Series starts. A week later, on the road course at Daytona, it was Christopher Bell, at +6000, winning the O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 for his first-ever Cup Series win. These longshot winners have revealed an exciting trend that we hope continues at the Dixie Vodka 400 as we survey the field of contenders.

So when will things go to form? Is this the week the favorites actually complete the task?

Dixie Vodka 400 Favorites

Here are the top-10 favorites to win the Dixie Vodka 400 with odds to both win the race and finish top-3.

  • Denny Hamlin (+500/+140)
  • Chase Elliott (+600/+175)
  • Kevin Harvick (+600/+175)
  • Martin Truex, Jr. (+700/+200)
  • Kyle Larson (+800/+225)
  • Kyle Busch (+1000/+275)
  • Joey Logano (+1000/+275)
  • Brad Keselowski (+1300/+375)
  • Ryan Blaney (+1600+450)
  • Tyler Reddick (+2200/+550)

Denny Hamlin is the defending champion here at the Dixie Vodka 400, and he finished 5th at the 500 and 3rd on the road course. He is a solid favorite to win this race and the safest of all the bets.

Joey Logano was a winner at Homestead in 2018, and he’s finished at least 6th or higher in five of his last six starts here. He’s also been an eyelash away from victory in the first two races this season. Logano was leading with just two laps to go on the road course before he was passed by Bell. He was leading on the final lap at the 500 before he and Brad Keselowski collided, allowing McDowell to sneak in for the win.

Ryan Blaney has struggled to begin the season. He finished 30th at the 500 and 15th on the road course. His last time out at Homestead, however, he finished 3rd. And at +1600, he presents a really nice potential payday.

Others to Watch

Just outside the top-10 at 14th on the odds list is Austin Dillon, paying +2500 to win and +1000 to finish top-3. In his last two races at Homestead, he finished in 7th place and 8th place. He’s been running great this month, with a win at the Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 and a 3rd place finish at the Daytona 500.

And what are the odds that Christopher Bell wins a second straight Cup Series race? As a winner, he is paying +2800 and +700 to finish top-3. Not only did he just win, but he was also good at Homestead in his one career start there. In 2020 he started the race in 36th but finished the race in 8th place.

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WagerHome BlogDixie Vodka 400 NASCAR Betting Preview

First Look at 2021 NFL Draft

by WagerHome Blog on February 23, 2021

We are still a couple of weeks away from the NFL’s new season and the start of free agency. So while we wait for the offseason to kick in, it’s never too early to look ahead to the NFL’s version of Christmas Day – the NFL Draft.

After last year’s event that was done virtually, the city of Cleveland is moving forward with plans to host an in-person draft this year, beginning on April 29th.

The Second Quarterback Drafted

There isn’t any question as to which quarterback is going first. Talking heads are trying to drum up drama, but in the end, it will be Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence. Be it Jacksonville or someone else who has traded up, he will be the top overall pick. But which of the signal callers is going next?

  • Zach Wilson (-188)
  • Justin Fields (+140)
  • Trey Lance (+200)
  • Mac Jones (+1200)
  • Trevor Lawrence (+3300)
  • Kyle Trask (+6600)

Zach Wilson is the biggest riser of late, as the talk shifts to the struggles of Justin Fields in bigger games. But the legitimate criticism of this line of thinking is that Wilson never really played a big game. The best team he played this year was a loss to Coastal Carolina, and it was his worst game of the year.

One betting note, Lawrence pays +3300 if instead of going first, he goes second.

Offensive Line

  • Penei Sewell (-1200)
  • Rashawn Slater (+333)
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (+450)

Oregon’s Penei Sewell is the obvious choice to go first here. He is a game wrecker who many people think will be just as valuable as Trevor Lawrence.

Running Back

  • Travis Etienne (-225)
  • Najee Harris (+150)
  • Javonte Williams (+800)

Along with the top quarterback, Clemson is the favorite to have the top running back off the board. Travis Etienne saw his rushing production drop significantly this season after breaking 1,600 in both 2018 and 2019. But he did catch 48 passes as a senior, showing he can be a three-down back.

Alabama’s Najee Harris scored 26 touchdowns in 2020, and he has the advantage of an Alabama pedigree. Current Tide running backs in the NFL include Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, and Damien Harris.

Wide Receiver

  • DeVonta Smith (-133)
  • JaMarr Chase (-105)
  • Jaylen Waddle (+450)
  • Rondale Moore (+550)

If it feels like Alabama has all the talent, it’s because they do. Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith is the slight favorite to go first, just ahead of LSU’s JaMarr Chase. Chase sat out in 2020, but in 2019, he was the best wide receiver in the nation.

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WagerHome BlogFirst Look at 2021 NFL Draft

Updated 2021 MLB Odds: World Series Favorites

by WagerHome Blog on February 18, 2021

It’s been an unusual offseason for Major League Baseball, with big-name trades, even bigger money free agent signings, and preparation for a new season that will be played with some of the same rules from last year’s COVID-shortened season.

And now baseball is here, as pitchers and catchers have reported. The full squads are in camp next week, and Spring Training games will begin before the month is done. Rejoice America. Major League Baseball is back for its 119th season, which means it’s time to take a look at the updated 2021 MLB odds.

2021 MLB Odds – World Series Favorites

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (+350)
  • New York Yankees (+550)
  • San Diego Padres (+900)
  • New York Mets (+1000)
  • Chicago White Sox (+1000)
  • Atlanta Braves (+1200)
  • Minnesota Twins (+1600)
  • Oakland Athletics (+1800)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (+2000)
  • Houston Astros (+2000)


Trevor Bauer is now a Dodger, and Justin Turner is still a Dodger. But even before that, they were the favorites to repeat as World Series Champions. L.A.’s closest competitor in the National League is its division rival that lives just down the 5 Freeway in San Diego. The Padres also have a very deep pitching staff after adding Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove this offseason.

The American League favorite is the Yankees after they added pitchers Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon. Taillon missed all of 2020 following elbow surgery, but that made him a cheap add with tons of upside.

The White Sox were back in the postseason in 2020 for the first time in 12 years, and many think they are ready to take the next step and become a legitimate World Series contender. Why else would you bring in Tony La Russa to manage at the age of 76 if you didn’t think you were close?

Out west in the American League, it will still be a battle between the Astros and A’s, but both teams lost key players over the offseason and are less likely to compete for a World Series run.

2021 MLB Odds – Addition by Addition

Several teams have seen their potential World Series fortunes rise because of additions this offseason.

Outfielder George Springer is a new member of the Toronto Blue Jays, and he has them as the second-most likely team to come out of the A.L. East. The Mets are the favorite to win the N.L. East after acquiring All-Star infielder Francisco Lindor and starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland.

The National League Central is considered as MLB’s weakest division, but the favorite St. Louis Cardinals made one of the biggest moves of any team when they traded for the best third baseman in all of baseball, Nolan Arenado. They are just outside the top 10 to win the World Series at +2500.

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WagerHome BlogUpdated 2021 MLB Odds: World Series Favorites

Betting Favorites to Win 2021 Genesis Invitational

by WagerHome Blog on February 17, 2021

After a Pebble Beach Pro-Am (minus the amateurs) that had a relatively weak field, in that none of the world’s Top 10 players were in attendance, this weekend’s Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades features a packed lineup of superstars.

Seven of the world’s top 10 players are in the field, including, in order of ranking, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, and Bryson DeChambeau. This group includes the reigning FedEx Cup champion in Johnson and the winners of all three majors that were played in 2020 – Johnson (Masters), Morikawa (PGA), and DeChambeau (U.S. Open).

We’ve also got an impressive 19 former Riviera champions in the field, making this one of the most competitive non-major tournaments in golf we’ll see this year.

Favorites to Win Genesis Invitational

  • Dustin Johnson (+550)
  • Jon Rahm (+1200)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1200)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1200)
  • Justin Thomas (+1400)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1600)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+1600)
  • Brooks Koepka (+2200)
  • Tony Finau (+2500)
  • Daniel Berger (+2800)

Johnson was a winner here in 2017, and the world’s No. 1 ranked player is the favorite to win again. DeChambeau, who hasn’t played in more than six weeks, finished tied for fifth here last year with four rounds under par.

Riviera is known for its small greens, so being a heavy hitter isn’t the most important attribute. But he obviously handled the course well in 2020.

Another notable favorite on this board is Patrick Cantlay, who just finished tied for third at Pebble Beach. The winner of Pebble Beach, Daniel Berger, rounds out the top 10 at Riviera, paying +2800 to be a back-to-back PGA Tour winner.

Other Solid Bets

Bubba Watson is a three-time winner at Riviera – 2014, 2016, and 2018 – and is paying +4000 in 2021. His every-other-year win streak was broken here in 2020, but he obviously has a game that is built for this course.

Last year’s winning 72 holes at the Genesis Invitational from Adam Scott was a repeat of his victory here 15 years earlier, though his win in 2005 was unofficial since it came on just 36 holes. He is paying +3300.

California native Rickie Fowler is back at Riviera for the first time since 2014. He’s all the way down at +10000.

genesis invitational

Jordan Speith, who just missed his first PGA Tour win since 2017 at Pebble Beach, where he led at 36 and 54 holes, is paying +3000.

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WagerHome BlogBetting Favorites to Win 2021 Genesis Invitational

Betting Favorites To Win 2021 Daytona 500

by WagerHome Blog on February 12, 2021

The Super Bowl is behind us. The NCAA Tournament is still more than a month in front of us. The 2021 Daytona 500 is the event to fill the void.

It is the holiest of American racing days, even called The Great American Race, and it starts the NASCAR season in grand fashion. It’s like having the Super Bowl before the NFL season kicks off, and it’s this weekend.

Betting on NASCAR is some of the most fun you’ll ever have at the races.

2021 Daytona 500 Odds

Betting on Daytona comes with odds listed for winning the race outright, as well as finishing in the top three.

  • Denny Hamlin (+700/+230)
  • Chase Elliott (+900/+300)
  • Ryan Blaney (+1100/+350)
  • Brad Keselowski (+1100/+350)
  • Joey Logano (+1100/+350)
  • Kevin Harvick (+1300/+450)
  • Kyle Busch (+1400/+500)
  • William Byron (+1400/+500)
  • Aric Almirola (+1800/+550)
  • Alex Bowman (+1800/+550)
  • Kurt Busch (+1800/+550)
  • Kyle Larson (+1800/+550)
  • Martin Truex (+1800/+550)

There is simply no one as good at Daytona right now than Denny Hamlin. He is the two-time defending champion, and only once since 2014 has he failed to finish in the top four. There is no sure thing in racing or at Daytona, but Hamlin is as close as NASCAR has.

Looking at the rest of the top five on this list, only Joey Logano has a victory at Daytona, having won back in 2015. Elliott is the defending Cup Series champion, but he only finished 17th at the Daytona 500 last season.

2021 daytona 500

He did, however, finish second at the Coke Zero 400 in August, which is also run at Daytona.

Others to Watch

He’s not on this list, but someone who could make some noise is Austin Dillon, paying +2500. He was the winner of the Daytona 500 in 2018, has seven top 10 finishes at Daytona, and is coming off a season with nine top 10 finishes.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. was the pole winner at last year’s Daytona 500, and he led for the third-most laps before ending in 20th. He did win the Coke Zero 400 in 2017, so he has taken a checkered flag here, and he’s paying +2000 on Sunday.

If you’re looking for someone ready to make a big jump this season by getting off to a fast start, look at 23-year-old Cole Custer. He made it to last year’s postseason, finished in the top 10 seven times, and showed considerable improvement from when he raced at Daytona in February to when he raced it again in August.

He’s paying +4000 to win and +1000 to finish in the top three.

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WagerHome BlogBetting Favorites To Win 2021 Daytona 500

Favorites, Darkhorses, Longshots to win Pebble Beach Pro-Am

by WagerHome Blog on February 9, 2021

We do now know that the world’s No. 1-ranked player, Dustin Johnson, will not win this weekend’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He withdrew from the tournament Monday night, leaving the popular event without any of the world’s top 10 players. Patrick Cantlay, at No. 11, is the highest-ranked player in the field.

So with Johnson out, who is the most likely to win on Sunday? And who is the best candidate to sneak up on the rest of the field?

The Favorites

  • Patrick Cantlay (+700)
  • Daniel Berger (+1400)
  • Paul Casey (+1600)
  • Jason Day (+2000)
  • Will Zalatoris (+2000)
  • Jordan Spieth (+2200)
  • Francesco Molinari (+2500)
  • Si Woo Kim (+3000)
  • Sam Burns (+3300)
  • Cameron Davis (+3300)
  • Max Homa (+3300)
  • Kevin Streelman (+3300)

With the absence of the top players, this really does become Cantlay’s tournament to lose. The California native has never won at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but he does have a top 10 finish, and last year, he finished tied for 11th place at -8.

He finished in second place at The American Express in La Quinta in January. He also plays very well on a shorter course like Pebble Beach.

Daniel Berger finished in fifth place at Pebble Beach last year and was seventh at the Sony Open in January. Paul Casey just finished in eighth at The American Express and was the runner-up at Pebble Beach in 2019.

Jason Day has never won at Pebble Beach, but he was a runner-up in 2018 and has six top 10 finishes at the event in his last eight appearances.

Darkhorses and Longshots

Looking a little further down that table, you want to keep an eye on Si Woo Kim. He was the winner at The American Express in La Quinta and paid a very handsome +5500.

At +3300 here, and considering he finished tied for fourth place in 2019 at Pebble Beach, Kim is an enticing play.

pebble beach pro-am

Phil Mickelson has had a tough last year of golf, but he’s the all-time earnings leader at Pebble Beach, and he’s won this tournament five previous times. He’s paying +4500.

For an even bigger longshot, take a look at Brandt Snedeker at +8000. He’s earned those long odds with three missed cuts in his last four tournaments, and the 40-year-old isn’t the player he used to be.

But he did win at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2013 and 2015, he has loads of experience on this course, and he still has a good enough short game to make a run.

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WagerHome BlogFavorites, Darkhorses, Longshots to win Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Sharp Bets for Super Bowl Sunday

by WagerHome Blog on February 4, 2021

Super Bowl Sunday is upon us, with Super Bowl LV coming up this weekend between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

By this point, you know the lines. The Chiefs are three-point favorites, down from an opening line of 3.5, and the over/under on the game is 56.5. That hasn’t changed since it first opened.

But where is the value? What are the bets, both game and props, that the sharps are betting with a real expectation of making a profit?

Total Points Line (56.5)

At first glance, this feels like an over. You have two great quarterbacks, a ton of speed at wide receiver, and we all remember Tyreek Hill going for over 200 yards in the first quarter of the two teams’ November meeting.

But that game finished 27-24, under the total both then and for Sunday, and it happened because the Chiefs secondary is quite good. And the Buccaneers secondary has improved since then.

Both sets of running backs are healthy and playing well, and they will be much more involved in this game than many people think.

Take the under on 56.5 points scored.

Total Sacks Line (3.5)

Another line that is very enticing on Super Bowl Sunday is the proposition on total sacks. Right now, it’s at 3.5 for the game.

But the Buccaneers are coming off a five-sack performance against a much better and healthier offensive line of Green Bay, and the Chiefs just sacked a far more mobile Josh Allen four times.

These are two very good quarterbacks at avoiding sacks, but it just doesn’t feel like the kind of game where they won’t give up some. Just two each, and the over hits. And two each is on the low side.

Take the over on 3.5 sacks.

Individual Rushing Yards

Rain is in the forecast for Sunday, and if it does end up falling, we should see running backs get the ball more than previously thought.

Darrel Williams of the Chiefs is at 28.5 yards rushing in the game.

Super Bowl Sunday

He shares carries with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but Williams is the hot hand here, going for 78 and 52 in the Chiefs’ two playoff victories. It’s hard to find a scenario where he regresses to 28 or less.

Take the over on Williams 28.5 yards rushing.

For Tampa Bay, the good play is on Ronald Jones II. Leonard Fournette has been the guy of late, averaging 70 yards rushing in the playoffs.

Jones has almost become an afterthought, running for just 16 yards in the NFC Championship Game. But he went over 100 yards four times in 2020 and averaged 7.3 per carry against the Chiefs.

The line is just 36.5 yards on Jones, and against Kansas City, that feels too low. Take the over on Jones 36.5 yards rushing.

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WagerHome BlogSharp Bets for Super Bowl Sunday

Consider Wagering These Five Super Bowl Prop Bets

by WagerHome Blog on February 2, 2021

One of the great things about Super Bowl prop bets is that they are a fun way to watch the game without taking the game too seriously. The opening coin toss, the length of the National Anthem, and the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach’s head are all somewhat lighthearted, playful prop bets.

But that isn’t true of all proposition bets. Some of them can become valuable money-making plays when you dig into the numbers just a little bit.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Total Number of Sacks Over/Under – 3.5

This feels like an obvious bet on the over. All you need is four sacks to hit, and the Buccaneers just recorded five sacks against a superior Packers offensive line. The Chiefs, for their part, just got to a much more mobile Josh Allen four times. That’s nine sacks between these two teams in the Championship Games.

The teams only combined for three sacks when they met in November, but the Chiefs offensive line was healthier then, and the Buccaneers defense was more banged up. The over on 3.5 total sacks is a solid play.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Combined Rushing Attempts Over/Under – 50.5

Even with a big lead in the AFC Championship, the Chiefs only ran the ball 25 times. The Bucs were running the clock late in the game against Green Bay and only made it to 24 rushes. When the teams met in November, the Chiefs got out to a big lead but still only rushed 13 times. The combined rushing attempts total in that game was just 33.

It’s hard to picture a scenario where both teams become rush heavy enough to hit the over. Go under 50.5 total rushes.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Combined Passing Attempts Over/Under – 80.5

Working off the under for rushing attempts, bet the over on passing attempts. In the November game, Tampa Bay and Kansas City threw the ball 91 times. It just makes sense to take the over here.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Patrick Mahomes Props

There are many good prop bets surrounding Patrick Mahomes, but one that is highly recommended is: Mahomes over 400 yards and Chiefs win.

It pays +270, which sets up a nice payday for the exact scenario that played the last time these teams played. In that Chiefs win, Mahomes threw for 462 yards.


Super Bowl Prop Bets: Rob Gronkowski Prop Bets

The future Hall of Fame tight end hasn’t been a huge part of the Buccaneers offense this season, but he has been a Kansas City killer in the past. In the AFC Championship two years ago, he caught six passes for 79 yards against the Chiefs.

The prop: Rob Gronkowski over 80 yards paired with a Buccaneers win pays +900. Kansas City has the corners to cover the Tampa Bay wide receivers. They don’t have much in the way of coverage linebackers, and Gronk could feast. At +900, it’s definitely worth a play.

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WagerHome BlogConsider Wagering These Five Super Bowl Prop Bets