Take the Dogs Out This MLB Postseason

by Wager Home on October 6, 2019

Betting on baseball during the regular season requires some serious discipline. There are nearly 15 games each day, which can be both a blessing and a curse for bettors. One of the big positives of the 162-game regular season is that bettors can identify trends that translate into betting opportunities. This postseason, like many past postseasons, those trends indicate backing underdogs in the MLB playoffs.


WagerHome is YOUR home for Sportsbook Solutions

WagerHome is YOUR home for Sportsbook Solutions

WagerHome is YOUR home for Sportsbook Solutions


A Little History

Going back to 2005, the underdog won 42.5 percent (15,458-of-20,950) of all MLB regular season games. That number jumps to 44.8 percent, or 210-of-259, in the postseason. Even more interesting is the home underdog. In 119 games since 2005, the home underdog is 61-58. Based upon these numbers alone, bettors can see why backing underdogs can lead to bigger payouts.

The Bounce-Back Theory

The MLB playoffs attract many recreational bettors that incorrectly assume that most playoff series are ones that go “back and forth.” There is a misconception that teams that lose a game will often “bounce back” and simply win the next game. This idea leads to some faulty betting strategies (if you can even call it a strategy).

A serious MLB bettor would be better off backing a team coming off a win than coming off a loss. The numbers prove it. Again going back to 2005, teams that lost the previous game are 172-183 (48.5 percent) in their next game. Teams that won their previous game went on to win 51.1 percent – a record of 179-171 – of the time.

Even more interesting is the underdog coming off a win. While it might be conventional thinking to believe the dog got lucky and is bound to lose, that has not been the case. Underdogs coming off a win have proved a good value going 86-96 (47.3 percent).

Betting Totals

Another strategy for the serious MLB playoff bettor is to back postseason underdogs with high totals. The magic number for totals bettors seems to be 8. With a total of 8 or higher in the postseason, the Under is 110-86. The Over is 132-114 when the total is 7.5 or lower.

It’s also worth noting that underdogs in games where the total is 8.5 or higher are 83-89 since 2003. When the total is 8 or less, dogs are 127-170 during the same time frame. In Game 1 of the Cardinals-Braves series, Atlanta was a home underdog and the Total was set at 8.5. The underdog Braves and the Under were winners as a result of the 3-0 Atlanta victory.

Do not sleep on the Braves when considering your MLB postseason bets

Do not sleep on the Braves when considering your MLB postseason bets

Making It Through the Rest of the Postseason

Bettors looking for the most bang for their buck this MLB postseason should do their best to focus on underdogs. More often than not, MLB playoff teams are evenly matched which tends to favor upsets. Remember, more casual bettors will want to get in on the action at this time of year. That works in the underdogs favor as well.

Recreational bettors tend to put their money on favorites. Doing so can lead to artificially inflated lines, which ends up resulting in higher payouts for the more unpopular underdog. This MLB postseason, takes the dogs out to the park and pad that bankroll.

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Wager HomeTake the Dogs Out This MLB Postseason

Weekly Bookie Betting Report- Oct. 3

by Wager Home on October 3, 2019

October is one of the biggest months of the year for private bookies. All four major US professional leagues are in action along with college football. While the revenue and subsequent profit this month can generate is a major financial boon, managing all the daily and weekly action coming in becomes a much tougher task, but we’re here to give some assistance with our Weekly Bookie Betting Report for Oct. 3.

It is a must win week for some NFL teams

It is a must win week for some NFL teams

This is where a quality pay per head bookie software solutions provider can more than earn the weekly fees they charge for each of your active betting customers. Bookies need to look at each sport as a separate profit center to fully make the most of this unique opportunity. By developing a customer base for each betting opportunity, you will be able to maximize the bottom-line profit for your entire bookmaking operation.

Season-to-Date Football Betting Results

The NFL wrapped up the first quarter of its regular season schedule and the early betting trends still favor the underdogs against the spread with a winning rate of 61.3 percent. The best bet through the first four weeks has been road dogs winning 70 percent of the time. Road teams in general have been a profitable play covering 64.5 percent of their games. Road teams have also won 56.5 percent of their games straight-up.

Underdogs have won close to 42 percent of the time straight-up to add some action to the NFL moneyline bet. The best bet on the total line has been the UNDER with a winning rate of 55.6 percent.

The betting results for the first five weeks of the college football season have been much more stable. While the favorites have won 84.7 percent of their games SU, their winning rate ATS is just 50.8 percent. All the betting trends ATS are just about even with road favorites having the best edge at 53.2 percent. The UNDER has a winning rate of 52.3 percent when it comes to betting the college football total line.

One of the biggest handicapping contests of the NFL season is the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. Last week, the consensus picks road the Kansas City Chiefs with 1463 picks, but they could not cover the seven points in a tight 34-30 road win against Detroit. New England was second on the list with 930 picks but the Patriots failed to cover in a tight 16-10 road win against Buffalo as seven-point favorites.


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Early NFL Week 5 Consensus Picks

The early betting consensus for Week 5 in the NFL is back on the 4-0 Patriots at 69 percent as heavy 15.5-point road favorites against the 0-4 Washington Redskins. The 0-4 Arizona Cardinals are a solid bet at 65 percent as three-point road underdogs against the 0-4 Cincinnati Bengals.

Most of the games this week are tight either way with no clear favorite. There are also several “too close to call” scenarios betting the NFL total line.

This Weekend’s Big Betting Games

Can the Rays upset the best team in baseball?

Can the Rays upset the best team in baseball?

All four MLB best-of-five league division series will get underway starting on Thursday. In the American League, the New York Yankees are -220 favorites against the Minnesota Twins. In the other AL series, the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the heavily favored Houston Astros.

The Atlanta Braves are -140 favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals in one NLDS and the Los Angeles Dodgers are -220 favorites against the Washington Nationals in the other NL series.

One of the heaviest bet games in the NFL this Sunday should be the 3-1 Green Bay Packers on the road against the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. on FOX. Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season with the Cowboys set as 3.5 favorites. The total for this key NFC clash has been set at 47 points.

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Wager HomeWeekly Bookie Betting Report- Oct. 3

Finding Value in MLB 2019 Season’s Final Week

by Wager Home on September 22, 2019

The 2019 Major League Baseball is quietly nearing the end of the regular season as the NFL and NCAA college football give bettors a multitude of choices. With the NBA and NHL starting up in October, bettors have an absolute feast on which to gorge. The big question for bettors and those running their own pay per head bookie service is about value. Where can it be found?

Where can betting value be found?

Where can betting value be found?

As the end of the MLB season is upon us, bettors can find a ton of value in teams looking to advance to the postseason. Races are tight in both the National and American Leagues. Here’s how they are shaping up.


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National League

The favorite to win the NL is the Los Angeles Dodgers who, as of Saturday night, had an NL-high 99 wins. The Dodgers have clinched the West Division for the sixth straight season. Atlanta (96-60) has clinched the East and the St. Louis Cardinals are on their way to clinching the Central.

Where the heat is on is in the wild card race where Washington (85-68) and Milwaukee (85-70) control the league’s two spots. The Cubs (82-73) are doing a great job of working themselves right out of the playoff race.

Chicago has lost five straight, the last three to St. Louis, and is 2.5 games behind the Brewers in the Major League Baseball standings. The Cubs will face Pittsburgh and the Cardinals again to close the season. Chicago just swept the Pirates a little over a week ago.

What’s interesting about the Cubs is that in the three-game sweep of Pittsburgh they scored 47 runs. In their five consecutive losses, the Cubs lost four of those games by a single run. The other loss was by two. If Chicago continues to play as it has, they are a team to back especially since they can still make the postseason.

American League

Similar circumstances exist in the American League where World Series favorites Houston and the New York Yankees each have won 101 games already. Both teams have clinched playoff spots. The wild card race is also interesting in the AL.

Oakland, by virtue of its 94-61 record, holds the No. 1 wild card slot in the AL. The No. 2 spot is up for grabs between Tampa Bay (92-63) and Cleveland (91-64). Both the Rays and the Indians are doing their best to make sure they earn a postseason berth. Tampa Bay has won four of its last five games and the Indians have won five of their last six.

The Rays and Indians are fighting it out for the final AL Wild Card

The Rays and Indians are fighting it out for the final AL Wild Card


Must Read: Weekly Bookie Report- Sept. 20


Tampa Bay might have the tougher schedule, as they must face division rivals Boston and New York before closing the season at Toronto. Sports bettors might find it intriguing that the Rays play the Yankees at home and New York has already clinched the division. They might also find it interesting that the Yankees have won 12 of the 17 games the teams have played this season.

Cleveland will face Central Division foe Chicago in a three-game series and then finish the season at Washington. The Indians are 8-2 in their last 10 games and are playing as well as anyone. They have averaged over five runs a game over their last six games and have one of the AL’s better road records at 43-32.

MLB action at this time of year is perfect for the aspiring bookie. There’s a ton of value to be found, especially among the teams vying for the wild card spots in their respective leagues. A pay per head free trial can show you how easy it is to provide outstanding value and service to your bettors.

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Wager HomeFinding Value in MLB 2019 Season’s Final Week