NFL Draft 2021: What to Expect in the First Round

by WagerHome Blog on April 27, 2021

A strange, shortened, and, in some cases, absent college football season makes this year’s NFL Draft one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. There was no combine, and only scattered player pro days and limited face-to-face interviews. Will teams be willing to take risks or go with the tried and true?

Hard to say exactly, but this is our best guess as to the headlines that will be made during Thursday night’s first round.

It’s a Quarterback’s League

If you don’t have a franchise quarterback, you don’t have a shot at the Super Bowl. That is the reality of the NFL, and that is why it is a certainty that the top three picks will be rookie signal-callers.

Trevor Lawrence goes No. 1 to the Jaguars, Zach Wilson goes to the Jets at No. 2, but who do the 49ers take at No. 3? It will be a quarterback, and if it’s Mac Jones, don’t be surprised if there are a number of teams on the phone with the Falcons trying to move up to No. 4 for Trey Lance or Justin Fields.

The Broncos are sitting at No. 9, and if the quarterback they covet is still on the board at No. 4, the Falcons could get a haul of picks from Denver. The Bears, or even the Patriots, might also have an eye on moving up for one of the top quarterbacks.

Teams Moving Up

The Ravens have their quarterback, but they also have a lot of picks. Ten picks to be exact, including two first-rounders, two thirds, and two fourths. Look for Baltimore to package its picks and move up to grab one of the best wide receivers on the board.

The Chargers have nine total picks, including No. 13 in the first round. If there is an opportunity to grab a top offensive tackle or tight end Kyle Pitts, don’t be surprised if Los Angeles makes a move. It wants to surround Justin Herbert with as much offensive talent as possible.

The Miami Dolphins

With confidence in second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and holding first-round picks at Nos. 6 and 18, the Dolphins get a section all to themselves. Look for them to use the sixth pick on LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, then make a big trade with someone for the No. 18 pick.

nfl draft

They have lots of draft capital and could move up, down, or into more picks for the future. Whatever Miami ultimately decides to do, when the first-round grades are given out, look for it to score quite high.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Draft 2021: What to Expect in the First Round

NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on January 5, 2021

The NFL Wild Card Weekend was already one of the best on the betting calendar. But with the new super-sized playoff field, we are getting six of the best games of the season instead of just four.

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Saturday’s Top Game – Rams at Seahawks

There are three games on Saturday, including Colts at Bills (-6.5) and Buccaneers (-8.5) at Washington. But the best matchup of the day is the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Seattle Seahawks (-4.5).

For the first half of the season, Seattle’s offense was one of the best in the NFL, and Russell Wilson was making a serious run at his first MVP award. The problem was the Seahawks defense, which was a sieve.

The script flipped in the final eight games. Wilson was held to less than 200 yards three times, while Jamal Adams turned the Seattle defense into a solid asset. However, Adams is now hurt, and his status for Saturday is in doubt.

We all know about the Rams defense and Aaron Donald. The question mark is quarterback Jared Goff, who missed Week 17 after breaking his thumb.

The plan is to have Goff back by Saturday, which could be key. When the Rams beat the Seahawks back in November, he paced the victory with 302 yards passing. In that game, Wilson threw two interceptions and was sacked six times.

Sunday’s Top Game – Titans at Ravens

There are three more games on Sunday, including the Saints (-10.5) hosting the Bears and the Browns breaking their long playoff drought with a trip to Pittsburgh (-4.5). But the early game on Sunday is the Ravens (-3.5) at Tennessee, and it has classic written all over it.

NFL Wild Card Weekend

The Ravens are the best running team in the NFL and just had 404 yards on the ground against Cincinnati. But on the other sideline, you have the best running back in the league in Derrick Henry, who just became the eighth player in NFL history to top 2,000 yards rushing in a single season.

Baltimore was the top seed a year ago, Lamar Jackson was the MVP, and none of that mattered to Tennessee. It was the Titans winning in the postseason and advancing to the AFC Championship Game. And in the much-anticipated rematch in November, again Tennessee prevailed with a 29-yard Henry touchdown in overtime.

This feels like a final-possession-winning-drive type of game.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

Christmas Day Opens Door for Nice Multiple Sports Parlay

by WagerHome Blog on December 24, 2020

If you are an independent bookmaker or just someone who has thought about opening your own bookmaking shop, you already know about the NBA showcase on Christmas Day. It’s the biggest day on pro basketball’s regular-season television calendar.

But with Christmas falling on a Friday this year – which is close enough to the weekend for the NFL to jump on board – we’re getting two professional sports on one big day. Add in a college bowl game and three college basketball games involving Top 25 teams, and it’s a sports betting Christmas Miracle.

NBA Lineup

From right after you open the presents under your tree to right before you go to bed, there are five of the best NBA matchups of the season to watch and wager.

  • New Orleans Pelicans Miami at Heat (-5)
  • Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks (-8)
  • Brooklyn Nets (-1) at Boston Celtics
  • Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers (-6)
  • LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets (Pick)

The day starts with last season’s Eastern Conference champion, the Heat, hosting Lonzo Ball, Zion Williamson, and the New Orleans Pelicans. Next, the favorite to win the East this season, the Milwaukee Bucks, host a returning Stephen Curry and the Warriors.

Then, the Celtics, a conference finalist a season ago, host the Nets, who are led by a now-healthy Kevin Durant.

In the Western Conference, the defending NBA champion Lakers continue the defense of their title against the Mavericks. The two biggest challengers to the Lakers, the Clippers and Nuggets, finish off the night in Denver.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans sports fans have a full day, starting with the Pelicans and ending with the Saints and their effort to stay as the NFC’s second seed. The Saints are seven-point favorites over the sliding Minnesota Vikings, who see their Wild Card hopes on life support.

christmas dayIt’s the second game for Drew Brees since he came back from broken ribs, and it will be the second game since Michael Thomas was placed on injured reserve. The rushing title is Derrick Henry’s to lose, but the Vikings’ Dalvin Cook leads the NFL in total yards from scrimmage and is on pace to break 2,100 yards.

College Sports Schedule

Adding to the mix of great Christmas Day professional sports is the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Ala. Both Marshall and Buffalo began the season with long winning streaks but head into their bowl matchup after each taking a loss. Buffalo is favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under is 53.5.

College basketball has four Big Ten games on its schedule, including three games involving ranked teams.

  • No. 9 Wisconsin at No. 12 Michigan State
  • No. 19 Michigan at Nebraska
  • No. 4 Iowa at Minnesota

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WagerHome BlogChristmas Day Opens Door for Nice Multiple Sports Parlay

Updated NFL Playoff Picture After Week 13

by WagerHome Blog on December 8, 2020

It’s December in the NFL, which means that we are officially in the final quarter of the season. And that means it’s time to check in on the current NFL playoff picture and see who’s in, who’s out, and who is still in the hunt.

NFC Division Leaders

  • NFC South – New Orleans (10-2)
  • NFC North – Green Bay (9-3)
  • NFC West – Los Angeles Rams (8-4)
  • NFC East – New York Giants (5-7)

New Orleans has a three-game lead in the NFC South and is clearly in command of the division. They’re also on top of the conference thanks to a nine-game winning streak.

The Saints still have a game against the Kansas City Chiefs, and if they slip, the Packers own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The NFC East has been a punchline all season, but the Giants now have four straight wins and are in position to host a playoff game.

NFC Wild Card

  • Seattle (fifth seed)
  • Tampa Bay (sixth seed)
  • Minnesota (seventh seed)

Seattle is actually tied with the Rams but is relegated to the Wild Card because of a tiebreaker. But the NFC West is far from settled.

Although winning the division sets up a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the top Wild Card will play the NFC East champion. So losing the division does come with perks.

Arizona is currently tied with Minnesota for the seventh seed but drops out of the playoffs because of a tiebreaker. However, the Vikings still play the Buccaneers and Saints, giving the Cardinals the easier schedule down the stretch.

Amazingly, as we enter Week 14, not a single NFC team has been eliminated from playoff contention.

AFC Division Leaders

  • AFC North – Pittsburgh (11-1)
  • AFC West – Kansas City (11-1)
  • AFC East – Buffalo (9-3)
  • AFC South – Tennessee (8-4)

The top seed is down to two teams – Pittsburgh and Kansas City. The Chiefs can only catch the Steelers if Pittsburgh loses a game inside the AFC.

Losing to Washington on Monday did not hurt the Steelers too badly. Kansas City has two difficult games remaining, with trips to Miami and New Orleans. The Steelers still have to play the Bills, Browns, and Colts.

nfl playoff picture

AFC Wild Card

  • Cleveland (fifth seed)
  • Miami (sixth seed)
  • Indianapolis (seventh seed)

Before the season ends, we can expect to see a number of moves among the Wild Card teams. Both Miami and Indianapolis are in range of winning their divisions, but be sure to circle Week 17 on your calendar.

The Bills and Dolphins play in the final week of the season, possibly to decide who wins the division and who settles for the Wild Card.

The Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets have all been eliminated from playoff contention.

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WagerHome BlogUpdated NFL Playoff Picture After Week 13

Top Three NFL Bets for Week 8

by WagerHome Blog on October 29, 2020

Week 7 in the NFL saw some amazing finishes, like the Arizona Cardinals coming back to beat Seattle in overtime, handing the Seahawks their first loss. And the Titans missing a late field goal against the unbeaten Steelers to suffer their first loss.

And how about a missed extra-point attempt at the end of the Browns-Bengals game that didn’t change the outcome on the field but most certainly changed things if you bet the three-point spread.

So what surprises does Week 8 have in store for the NFL fan? But more importantly, which games are the best NFL bets for Week 8 we can wager that have the fewest surprises?

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Baltimore Ravens

For the second straight week, the Steelers are involved in the game of the week. Last Sunday, they hung on to beat the Titans, and this Sunday, they have their first of two meetings with the Ravens.

With Ben Roethlisberger back, the Steelers (5-1 ATS) are back, and they sit as the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten team. The Ravens (3-3 ATS) are the defending AFC North champs and have taken a step back on offense this season, but only have a lone loss to Kansas City.

This is going to be a great game that comes down to the final possession, and no more than a field goal will separate the two at the end. Take Pittsburgh and the points.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (Over 52.5)

Scoring around the NFL is up this season, and a big part of that is how these two teams play. Both of them love to score, and both of them hate playing defense.

For the Raiders, their point totals allowed this season are 30, 24, 36, 30, 32, and 45, with the average total points per game coming in at 63. Not once have they failed to break 52.

Cleveland has been just as bad (or good if you’re betting the over), giving up 38, 30, 20, 38, 23, 38, and 34. Their average total points per game is 61.

Two really bad defenses and two offenses that love to score. This over is ripe for the picking.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos

These two teams have identical 2-4 records, but when watching the Chargers, you see a team on the rise. When watching the Broncos, especially last week at home, you can see a team still trying to find itself.

nfl bets for week 8

The Chargers are 5-1 ATS, playing with confidence in their young quarterback and coming off a 10-point win. In Denver, Drew Lock continues to struggle, and the Broncos are coming off a 27-point loss.

Los Angeles wins this by a touchdown. Take the Chargers and lay the points.

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WagerHome BlogTop Three NFL Bets for Week 8

NFL Best Bets for Week 6

by WagerHome Blog on October 15, 2020

Week 5 of the NFL season extended its way through Tuesday for just the second time in 70 years. We’re down to five unbeaten teams, while only three teams remain winless.

And we got one quarterback who heroically worked his way back to the field in Washington’s Alex Smith, while another in Dallas’ Dak Prescott is starting his journey on the same road to recovery after a Week 5 injury.

What does Week 6 have in store for NFL fans, and where should the smart bettor put their money? Let’s take a look at our NFL best bets.

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

These are not your father’s Cleveland Browns, but they are your grandfather’s. For the first time since Bill Belichick was their head coach, the Browns are 4-1, and it’s a solid 4-1. They have legitimate playmakers on both sides of the ball and are right to be thinking playoffs.

They haven’t won in Pittsburgh since the stone age, and they may not win here – the Steelers are one of those remaining unbeatens. But look for Cleveland to keep the final margin to within a field goal.

Cincinnati Bengals (+8) at Indianapolis Colts

Rookie growing pains aside, Joe Burrow is showing himself to be a capable quarterback in Cincinnati. And while the record doesn’t show it, with just one win in five games, the competitiveness of each game does.

The Bengals lost by three, lost by five, tied, and won by eight. (We don’t count the big loss to Baltimore because the Ravens do that to everyone.)

Philip Rivers is good for a turnover, and the Colts have been too up and down to justify such a big spread. Look for the Bengals to keep this within a touchdown.

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers

If not for a pair of games against the two winless teams from New Jersey, the 49ers would be winless themselves. Along with the other injuries they’ve suffered, suddenly they don’t have a reliable quarterback, with Jimmy Garoppolo getting benched in last week’s embarrassment against the Dolphins.

The Rams have scored 30 points in three of their last four games. They’ll do it again this week and will easily cover against their division rivals.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Over 54.5)

A good backup quarterback can save a season, and it just might do that in Dallas. Prescott is done for the year, but Andy Dalton is very good when he has weapons, and he definitely has them in Dallas.

nfl best bets

The problem in Big D is the lack of any meaningful defense, which is giving up an average of 40 points per game in the last four weeks. The Cardinals will score, and score often, and score again.

Anything could happen with who wins this game, but offense is guaranteed. This game will go over 54.5 with plenty of room to spare.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Best Bets for Week 6

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on October 1, 2020

The NFL is in full swing, so we’re taking a look at some of the Week 4 best bets for you to make.

Scoring is up around the league. We just had our first big showdown of the season when the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens played on Monday.

We’re getting MVP and record-breaking performances out of Russell Wilson each week. Josh Allen has been a revelation in Buffalo. The Chicago Bears are undefeated, as are the Pittsburgh Steelers with the return of Ben Roethlisberger.

So many great stories in this young NFL season. And so many great opportunities to cash in on wagers in Week 4.

Baltimore Ravens (-12.5) at Washington Football Team

The Ravens still fancy themselves the best team in the AFC, and they are going to be angry when they take the short trip to Washington. Lamar Jackson was completely bottled up by Kansas City, but that will not happen two weeks in a row.

Add in the fact that Dwayne Haskins is coming off a three-interception performance, and now he’ll face one of the best secondaries in football, and this has the makings of a blowout. Baltimore will win by more than two touchdowns, covering the spread.

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have struggled to stop anyone with their defense, and now the Bills come to town with Josh Allen playing like a quarterback reborn. The Raiders are giving up 30 points per game, and Allen and company will easily eclipse that number in Las Vegas.

The Raiders and Derek Carr simply don’t have enough to keep up. Buffalo pulls away in the end, winning by at least a touchdown and covering the three-point spread.

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Break up the Cleveland Browns, who are over .500 for the first time since 2014. And they are doing it with the best backfield in the entire NFL, with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Dallas defense is an absolute mess right now, even with the play of Aldon Smith.

week 4 best bets

The Cowboys will score plenty in his game, but Cleveland will keep pace. In the end, only a field goal will separate these two teams, and the Browns will cover.

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind through three weeks, and the Seahawks are a good bet to once again hit the 35-point mark. This season they’ve scored 38, 35, and 38 points. But as good as their offense has been, their defense has been equally bad, giving up 25, 30, and 31 points.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing great, and after a near-miss against Buffalo, he helped Miami score 31 in a win over Jacksonville. The Dolphins have had a few extra days of preparation for this one, which will help them keep the margin under a touchdown and cover the spread.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 4 Best Bets

NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions

by WagerHome Blog on September 22, 2020

The traditional overreactions to Week 1 in the NFL were set right with Week 2. The Buccaneers offense is good, as we thought in August.

The Colts could still be a playoff team, despite that early loss to Jacksonville. And the Cowboys are definitely the class of the NFC East.

As we head into Week 3, it’s now injuries that are driving the major narratives, with teams all over the league facing life without many of their star players. And of course, that injury report informs our betting choices for this weekend’s slate of games.

Arizona Cardinals (-6) vs. Detroit Lions

The Cardinals are not only a relatively healthy team; they look fantastic. There isn’t much that Kyler Murray can’t do, and or much of a chance that the Lions defense is going to slow him down. Detroit just made Mitchell Trubisky look competent, so they’re going to make Murray feel like an MVP candidate.

The Cardinals look like a playoff team. The Lions look to be headed toward a coaching change. Take Arizona and give the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) vs. Houston Texans

Another healthy team is the Steelers, and Ben Roethlisberger looks completely healthy after missing all of last year. He has a host of stud wide receivers to throw to and is backed up by one of the best defenses in the league.

On the other side, the Texans aren’t stopping anyone on defense, and on offense, they’re still waiting for someone to step into the playmaker role that was vacated by DeAndre Hopkins.

It’s a tough start to the season, facing Kansas City and Baltimore out of the gate. It doesn’t get much easier against the Steelers. Take Pittsburgh to cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) at Denver Broncos

The Broncos are now without quarterback Drew Lock and top wide receiver Courtland Sutton and are fading fast in the AFC West. They will fall to 0-3 this week, and the continually improving offense of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers will make this one a blowout.

In August, Denver looked like a possible contender. Ravaged by injuries a month later, Tampa Bay covers this one easily.

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills

When you watch the Rams of 2020, it’s easy to remember how this team made it to the Super Bowl following the 2018 season. The offense looks smooth, Jared Goff once again looks like a No. 1 overall pick, and Aaron Donald makes everything more difficult for opponents.

nfl

The Bills have looked solid but against terrible competition. Josh Allen will struggle more than he has this year, and the Rams will cover this spread.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 3 Betting Predictions

Best NFL Teams to Bet in Week 2

by WagerHome Blog on September 17, 2020

One of the biggest things to remember after Week 1 is that this is the most unusual of opening weekends for the NFL. Most reactions to what we saw are overreactions.

This is the first time anyone has started a regular season with no actual live game action, and what we think we know today may be completely turned on its head by next Tuesday morning.

That, of course, doesn’t mean we’re taking a week off from betting, or that we can’t look at the lines for this weekend and not see real value.

Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles

After seeing what Washington’s defensive line did to the Eagles offensive line, imagine the field day that Aaron Donald is going to have.

The Eagles looked absolutely lost in the final three quarters of their loss last Sunday, while the Rams established themselves as one to watch going forward. The quick passing game from Jared Goff and at least two sacks from Donald will lead the Rams to victory.

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Washington Football Team

No doubt about it, Kyler Murray is a star, and DeAndre Hopkins is in for a big season. If the two can look that connected against a defense like the 49ers, imagine what they can do against the rest of the league.

Washington’s defensive line was great against Carson Wentz, but Murray will run all over them. Take Arizona to cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers is never boring; you can say that much for him. But with Marlon Mack now gone for the season, Rivers simply isn’t capable of carrying this offense at this point in his career.

For the Vikings, we’re not going to overreact to their horrible three quarters against Green Bay. They put up 24 points in the fourth quarter, showing the world the Minnesota offense that we all expect to see. They will play a much more complete game at Indianapolis.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) at Tennessee Titans

Even with the assumption that the Titans will iron out their kicking woes and not leave so many points on the field, this game feels like it will stay close throughout. The Titans offense is good, but it’s built to plod and shorten the game’s possessions.

nfl

Meanwhile, the purge in Jacksonville hasn’t left the cupboard completely bare. Gardner Minshew is more than just a fun guy with a mustache – he’s a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. Take the Jags and the points.

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WagerHome BlogBest NFL Teams to Bet in Week 2

Fantasy Football Gems Worth Owning For NFL Week 1

by WagerHome Blog on September 10, 2020

By now, you’ve had your fantasy draft, you’ve made a few bets on the NFL’s opening weekend, and you’ve done some digging on your best daily fantasy sports options. Of course, everyone already knows that Christian McCaffrey is a stud, Lamar Jackson is going to put up mad points, and in PPR leagues, there is no wide receiver as valuable as Michael Thomas.

The key to winning, though, is finding last year’s Kenyan Drake, DeVante Parker, and Jared Cook – all guys who took major and unexpected leaps in 2019.

Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Much of the preseason hype has revolved around Chiefs rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He is the top of the depth chart in Kansas City and will benefit greatly from Andy Reid’s screen game.

But Darrel Williams also has great value. Edwards-Helaire is still just a rookie, is still learning pass blocking schemes, and is awfully small for consistent goal-line carries. Williams, on the other hand, is the experienced big body first in line to pilfer those goal-line scores.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It seems crazy to call a future Hall of Fame quarterback a hidden gem, but that is exactly where Ben Roethlisberger is right now. He’s 38 and coming off major arm surgery, and that has him largely ignored in most fantasy formats.

Don’t make that same mistake. All signs say he’s healthy, and if you remember his last full season in 2018, he threw for more than 5,000 yards.

Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins

A lot of people are sleeping on Preston Williams. He’s coming off an injury in 2019, the Dolphins offense is a mess, and he’s going to lose targets to DeVante Parker.

All of those things are true, but what is also true is that prior to getting hurt, he was having a great rookie season. He’s now back, and he’s cheap. And he’s almost certain to outperform his draft position and DFS cost.

Chris Herndon, TE, New York Jets

A suspension and rib injury held Chris Herndon to just one game last year, and it netted him one catch for seven yards. With reason, he is one of the last tight ends coming off the board or still sitting as a free agent.

fantasy

But he’s incredibly talented, has been having a great camp, and when quarterbacks don’t have big downfield threats, they lean on their tight ends. Expect Sam Darnold to lean on Herndon, and do it early.

Herndon is going to be great this season, and in a matchup against Buffalo’s secondary in Week 1, he should see even more targets than usual.

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WagerHome BlogFantasy Football Gems Worth Owning For NFL Week 1