NCAA Football Week 5 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 27, 2022

It’s only September, and yet another NCAA football team is looking for a new head coach, with Georgia Tech dismissing Geoff Collins after their 1-3 start. Last week’s 27-10 loss to UCF was the final straw, but his 10-28 record in what was his fourth year put the writing on the wall since the season began.

As for the good in Week 4, the Tennessee Volunteers are back into the top 10 for just the second time in 16 years. Kansas State returned to the Top 25 after beating Oklahoma, 41-34.

We are now on to NCAA football Week 5 and the best bets of the weekend.

No. 4 Michigan (-10.5) at Iowa

An easy month of September for Michigan ended with a bit of down turn in their performance against Maryland, and will that carry over into their first game of October? It’s Michigan’s first NCAA football game on the road, and Iowa does have an excellent defense.

Iowa’s offense, however, is not good. The Hawkeyes might keep this game close into the second half, but look for Michigan to cover the spread by the end.

No. 10 North Carolina State (+6.5) at No. 5 Clemson

The top 10 is filled with members of the SEC, but these two ACC teams are crashing the party and teaming up for perhaps the best game on Saturday.

Clemson is counting its lucky stars that it got out of Wake Forest last week with a double-overtime win. For N.C. State, its close call came in Week 1 against East Carolina. This game will be close and closer than a touchdown, meaning that the safest NCAA football bet is on North Carolina State to cover.

NCAA football

No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Mississippi (-6.5)

Kentucky is the higher ranked team, but they are the less complete team when compared to Ole Miss. The Wildcats have a great defense and a middling offense, and that is a big reason why they are underdogs on the road.

Mississippi ranks in the top-20 in both total offense and total defense, and look for them to cover the touchdown point spread.

No. 22 Wake Forest at No. 23 Florida State (-7)

Florida State has a chance to begin the season 5-0 for the first time since 2015, but to do it, they will have to get past Wake Forest, who nearly pulled off the upset over Clemson.

But can the Demon Deacons get back up for another big game? And a bigger question, can their pass offense move the ball against a great Florida State secondary?

The answer to that last question is doubtful, and that’s why we’re talking Florida State to win this game and cover the touchdown NCAA football point spread.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football Week 5 Betting Picks

NCAA Football Week 4 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 20, 2022

It was a busy week in college football that saw Arizona State part ways with head coach Herm Edwards. Georgia, already No. 1 in the AP poll, moved past Alabama in the coaches poll thanks to a 48-7 win over South Carolina. And the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners set a school record for most points scored in Lincoln, Nebraska, with 49.

Hopefully, no more firings, and instead, just great football and winning wagers.

Maryland at No. 4 Michigan (-16.5)

Three football games and three 50-burgers for the Michigan Wolverines, and there’s no reason to think there won’t be another one this week. Jim Harbaugh is 6-0 against Maryland with an average margin of victory of 33 points – which is double this week’s point spread.

Maryland is also 3-0 but 1-2 against the spread against weak competition. Look for Michigan to roll by at least three touchdowns.

No. 5 Clemson at No. 21 Wake Forest (+7)

Clemson started off with an emphatic win over Georgia Tech, but since then, they’ve been sleepwalking. Yes, they beat Louisiana Tech last week, 48-20, but that was 5.5 points under the spread, and it came after only leading 13-7 at halftime.

No more cupcakes for the Tigers as they travel to Wake Forest, who counts a 20-point win at Vanderbilt among their three wins this season.

Can the Tigers turn it on against the Demon Deacons? Enough to win, yes. But this is going to be a close football game that sees Wake cover the touchdown spread.

Football

No. 20 Florida (+11) at No. 11 Tennessee

The Vols look great and are an impressive 3-0 against the spread. But this is Florida, a team that has beaten Tennessee in the last five meetings.

The Gators lost at home to Kentucky and squeaked past South Florida last week, but Anthony Richardson will keep this game close. Tennessee wins the game, but they lose the point spread. Take the Gators and the points.

No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 23 Texas A&M (-2.5)

The rankings are a little lopsided in this one. Last week Arkansas escaped a close one against Missouri State, failing to cover the spread by 15 points. Meanwhile, the Aggies made up for their embarrassment against Appalachian State with a cover win over Miami.

The Texas A&M offense is struggling, but the defense is playing like one of the best in the country, and the Razorbacks won’t be able to generate much of anything on offense. In a slugfest, Texas A&M covers the modest spread and wins by a field goal.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football Week 4 Betting Picks

NCAA Football Week 3 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 13, 2022

It has been a tumultuous first couple of weeks in NCAA football, and storylines abound. Like Notre Dame, who looked like a legitimate contender at Ohio State, then promptly lost to Marshall.

It’s only mid-September, and we already have a coaching change in Nebraska, with Scott Frost out after a 1-2 start. We also might already have our best NCAA game of the year, with Alabama surviving in the end at Texas.

What is in store for us in NCAA Week 3, and which games deserve our betting dollars?

No. 6 Oklahoma (-11.5) at Nebraska

There was a time when this was the biggest game of the year, and not just in Oklahoma and Nebraska, but across the country. From 1971 until 1997, when the creation of the Big XII ended the annual rivalry, 20 times they played when both teams were ranked.

There was a stretch in the 90s when Nebraska was up, and Oklahoma was down, and now it’s Oklahoma that is up and Nebraska that is down. Way down. They now have an interim head coach and are coming off a home loss to Georgia Southern.

Oklahoma feasts.

NCAA Football Week 3 Betting Picks

No. 1 Georgia at South Carolina (+24.5)

Georgia has outscored its two opponents 82-3. And these weren’t just scrubs. The most impressive win in all of college football this season was their total dismantling of Oregon, 49-3. Wiping the floor with Samford is a yawner. Crushing one of the best teams in another Power-5 Conference makes you notice.

South Carolina is good, and there is no shame in losing to Arkansas last week. And there won’t be any shame in losing to the top-ranked Bulldogs this week because South Carolina will cover the spread.

No. 22 Penn State (-3) at Auburn

Freshman Nick Singleton looks like the next great Penn State running back, rushing for 179 yards on just ten carries against Ohio last week. The game before, at Purdue, it was Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford who was the star, throwing for 282 yards and four touchdowns.

Auburn is also 2-0, but they have failed to cover the spread in both weeks, while Penn State is 2-0 against the spread. They will make it three straight wins this weekend at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

No. 11 Michigan State (+3.5) at Washington

A great matchup on the West Coast has a pair of undefeated teams in Michigan State at Washington.

The Spartans have a great defense, and Washington has a great quarterback in Michael Penix Jr., but overall the Huskies just aren’t physical enough to compete with Michigan State. Getting more than a field goal on the road makes them a very enticing play.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football Week 3 Betting Picks

NCAA Football Week 2 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 6, 2022

It’s Week 2 in NCAA football, and a number of great top-25 matchups highlight our betting Saturday.

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-20) at Texas Longhorns

Both Alabama and Texas are coming off big Week 1 wins, but only one of these teams looked like the best NCAA team in the country. Hint: It was the team that beat Utah State 55-0.

This is a big spread considering that the game is in Texas, and the Longhorns are good, just outside the top-25. Don’t be surprised if this game ends up being a 38-20 Alabama win, which would mean that Texas plus the points makes for the better bet.

No. 24 Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5) at No. 17 Pittsburgh Panthers

The Panthers failed to cover in their Week 1 win over West Virginia, while Tennessee covered their spread by nearly two touchdowns.

Worse for Pittsburgh was the porous defense that showed up in Week 1, that will absolutely sink them in Week 2. Note that the Panthers are ranked higher and at home but nearly a touchdown underdog. That tells you that early in the NCAA season, you should trust Las Vegas more than AP voters.

Tennessee is the much better team, and they will cover this spread.

NCAA

No. 20 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 12 Florida Gators (-4.5)

This is a great quarterback matchup between two guys who will be playing on Sunday next season – Will Levis of Kentucky and Anthony Richardson of Florida.

Richardson has more raw talent, while Levis looked to be more NFL-ready a week ago. But Richardson was fantastic in Week 1 against Utah, and if he keeps that up, Florida is going to win a lot of games this season. That includes this Saturday’s win over Kentucky, which will be by a touchdown or more.

No. 9 Baylor Bears at No. 21 BYU Cougars (-3.5)

It’s hard to really know what we have in Baylor after they ran over Albany, 69-10. At least BYU played another FBS school in South Florida, who they demolished 50-21. The spread was only 11, which they nearly tripled.

BYU is at home and based on how both teams looked in Week 1, it’s easy to see why the Cougars are the better than field goal favorite. But this would be to ignore who Baylor was in 2021 and who has returned from that team.

The Bears are good, and not only will they cover the modest spread at BYU, they will win this NCAA game outright.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football Week 2 Betting Picks

NCAA Football Week 1 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on August 30, 2022

NCAA football fans got a little taste of the season to come last weekend with a thriller in Dublin, Ireland, where Northwestern came from behind to beat Nebraska. Illinois, Florida State, and North Carolina all got easy wins, and Vanderbilt went out to Hawaii and got a 63-10 victory.

But that was only Week 0. This is now officially Week 1, and all 25 of the nation’s Top-25 teams are in action, beginning on Thursday at Oklahoma State and finishing up on Monday night with Clemson and Georgia Tech.

NCAA Football Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

West Virginia (+7.5) at No. 17 Pittsburgh – Thursday

This is the 105th playing of the Backyard Brawl, but just the first since 2011. So while history can’t tell us about these two specific sets of players, we do know that four of the last five meetings have been decided by four points or less.

It will be rocking in Pittsburgh, and the Panthers probably win this game, but they will fall short of covering the touchdown spread. Take the Mountaineers.

Colorado State at No. 8 Michigan (-30.5) – Saturday

Here are the numbers that matter to you. Last season Michigan was 11-3-0 against the spread and 5-1 when that spread was more than two touchdowns.

On the other side, Colorado State was just 4-8-0 against the spread, and they lost their final six games of the season ATS.

CSU is ranked right around 95 in the country. Michigan is eighth. This is going to be a bloodbath that has the Wolverines covering no later than the third quarter.

No. 11 Oregon (+17.5) at No. 3 Georgia – Saturday

Considering that the Bulldogs lost 15 players to the NFL this past season, putting them as more than a two-touchdown favorite against a very good Oregon team is quite the leap.

Georgia is still loaded with talent, but they are a far greater unknown than a lot of teams because of their huge roster turnover.

You may want to roll with the Bulldogs most of the NCAA season, but this week look for the Ducks to cover.

No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 2 Ohio State (-17) – Saturday

It’s another huge spread for a game that, on paper, looks much closer than 17 points. But we know what we have in Ohio State, and it’s an offense led by C.J. Stroud that is going to put up points at will.

Notre Dame’s situation is far less certain, and their key players – like quarterback Tyler Buchner – are far less experienced.

In November, you might take the Irish to cover this spread. Right out of the gate and in Columbus, look for the Buckeyes to cover.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football Week 1 Betting Picks

College Football Playoff: Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl Betting Previews

by WagerHome Blog on December 28, 2021

It has been an unusual bowl season to be sure, with teams pulling out, replacement teams being found, and some bowls just outright canceled.

However, two games this Friday that we know will be played are the College Football Playoff Semifinals, taking place in Dallas and Miami.

Cotton Bowl – No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati (+13.5)

Alabama was an eyelash away from losing its final regular season game and not even making it to this point. But they won that game in the closing seconds, and then by virtue of their win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, they are the No. 1 ranked team heading into the CFP.

They certainly look like the better team when compared to the Bearcats, but are they two touchdowns better?

Cincinnati finished hot, beating the spread in its final three games. But before that, they went four straight without covering and only beat Navy and Tulsa by one score. Their overall strength of schedule ranks 45th; Alabama’s is first.

Bryce Young is fantastic, and if the Heisman winner duplicates his play from the SEC title game, Alabama cruises. But the Bearcats are physical up front, and Desmond Ridder is also a talented quarterback.

College Football playoffs

Heisman winning quarterback Bryce Young and the Alabama Crimson Tide take on Cincinnati in the Collège Football playoffs.

Alabama wins, but Cincinnati keeps it under 10 points.

Orange Bowl – No 2. Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia (-7.5)

 

Instead of pining for the game they could have had against Cincinnati, had Michigan not been passed over by Alabama, they are preparing to take on the team that was No. 1 in the nation for most of the season, Georgia.

The Bulldogs are the favorite because of just how great they looked from September through November, beating FBS teams by an average margin of victory of 32 points.

They did get run out of the building by Alabama, but Michigan doesn’t have an offense nearly as potent as what Georgia just faced, and that’s why the Bulldogs are favored to win by more than a touchdown.

The Wolverines counter their own great defense that hammered both Ohio State and Iowa to win the Big Ten. But the Michigan defense, while great, is a tick below that of Georgia. 

Michigan has two great running backs in Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum, but just how good can they be against Georgia? Quarterback Cade McNamara has been solid down the stretch, but he can’t take over games.

Georgia will simply be too much for Michigan, and they will cover this spread.

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WagerHome BlogCollege Football Playoff: Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl Betting Previews

College Football Bowl Game Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 24, 2021

We get a full Christmas weekend of NFL action, with the college football bowl schedule taking a backseat to the pros. There is just a single college bowl game on Christmas Day and no games on Sunday the 26th.

But on the 27th, the bowl season kicks into high gear, and the week leading into the College Football Playoff Semifinals is packed with great betting matchups.

East Carolina (+3.5) vs. Boston College – Military Bowl, Dec. 27

The East Carolina Pirates were underestimated all season long and finished the year at 5-3 against the spread when they were the underdog. They won four of their last five games of the season, only losing to unbeaten Cincinnati.

Boston College finished the season with a loss to Florida State and a beatdown at the hands of Wake Forest. Add in a month layoff and less to play for than East Carolina, and you should take the Pirates and the points.

No. 20 Houston Cougars (+3) vs. Auburn – Birmingham Bowl, Dec. 28

The last time we saw Auburn, they nearly pulled off the huge upset over Alabama. Instead, it was a loss, just like each of their last four games. In fact, if not for starting the season with Akron and Alabama State, Auburn isn’t even bowl eligible.

The last time we saw Houston, they were playing the Cincinnati Bearcats tough but ultimately losing. But prior to that, the Cougars had won 11 straight games. It wasn’t the most challenging schedule, but when you string together that many wins, you’re a good team.

College Football Bowl Game Betting Picks

Houston has had a much better season than Auburn. Take the Cougars and the points.

No. 14 Oregon vs. No. 16 Oklahoma (-4.5) – Alamo Bowl, Dec. 29

It’s the battle of two teams that entertained ideas of a College Football Playoff berth late in the season and now find themselves with new head coaches.

In Oregon, the new man is Dan Lanning, although he is staying with Georgia through its CFP run. Wide receivers coach Bryan McClendon will coach Oregon in the Alamo Bowl, even though he’s likely to join Mario Cristobal’s staff in Miami.

So Oklahoma, with Bob Stoops as its interim head coach for the Alamo Bowl, actually has more stability heading into the game. Lincoln Riley is heading to USC, but the Sooners football team gets to play for a legend who won 10 Big 12 titles and a National Championship in 2000.

It’s because of Stoops and the superior talent at Oklahoma that the best bet is to take the Sooners and lay the points.

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WagerHome BlogCollege Football Bowl Game Betting Picks

Early College Football Playoff Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 6, 2021

Hello darkness, my old friend…

For those of you (us) that thought finally we were going to avoid having to watch Alabama in the College Football Playoff, not so fast. ‘Bama is back in the CFP for the seventh time in eight seasons on the strength of a dominating win over Georgia to win the SEC.

The win was good enough, and Nick Saban’s history is decorated enough for the Crimson Tide to be the favorite to win the National Championship.

  • Alabama (+120)
  • Georgia (+140)
  • Michigan (+700)
  • Cincinnati (+1600)

Alabama has the best coach in the country, regularly the best roster in the country, and has quarterback Bryce Young, who is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Even though this was a disappointing season by Tuscaloosa standards, they are the favorite, and it’s easy to see why.

No. 1 Alabama (-14) vs. No. 4 Cincinnati – Cotton Bowl

The four teams that made it in did it without controversy. But the seeding of the four teams is not without argument. As good as Cincinnati has been this season, everyone wanted to be seeded first so they could play the Bearcats.

Alabama gets that honor, jumping from No. 3 to No. 1 because of their win over Georgia. As selection committee chair Gary Barta explained, “Not only did Alabama beat Georgia – the way they beat them. They controlled the game, pretty much from start to finish.”

Couldn’t Barta say the same thing about Michigan, who Alabama leapfrogged? In fact, you could say it, but without the “pretty much,” because Michigan’s 42-3 was every bit start to finish dominating win.

Saying that Alabama’s one win was more impressive than Michigan’s last two wins is questionable, but that’s what the committee did, and the Tide gets Cincinnati in the semifinal. However, they will have to do it without star wide receiver John Metchie III, who is out with a significant ACL injury.

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia (-7.5) – Orange Bowl

If there was one knock on Georgia, it was wins over quality teams. They played lots of great football this season, but their schedule was without any top-10 teams. Until they faced No. 3 Alabama, and that didn’t go so well.

Now they get a team that has dominating wins over a pair of top-10 teams, Wisconsin and Ohio State. And Michigan just won the Big Ten with a blowout over Iowa, 42-3.

Early College Football Playoff Betting Picks

But we know that Georgia is still really good. Michigan still has Jim Harbaugh as its head coach, and his ability to win big games is still in doubt. And being runner-up in the SEC is still considered just as good as winning most other conferences.

And for all of those reasons, Georgia is more than a touchdown favorite to win their semifinal and set up a rematch with Alabama in the Championship Game.

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WagerHome BlogEarly College Football Playoff Betting Picks

College Football Conference Championship Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 1, 2021

It is Conference Championship Week, and not only is it the last weekend to get in your regular-season college football bets, it’s one of the best weekends of the year.

Pac-12 – No. 10 Oregon vs. No. 14 Utah (-3)

We get started on Friday night, as Oregon and Utah meet in Las Vegas. It’s hard not to look at Utah’s thrashing of Oregon two weeks ago and think we’ll see the same thing this week. Clearly, it’s what Vegas is seeing, making the lower-ranked Utes the favorites.

Oregon just hasn’t been the same Oregon team that was in the previous two Pac-12 Championships. Utah will win and cover and go to its first Rose Bowl.

Big 12 – No. 5 Oklahoma State (-5.5) vs. No. 9 Baylor

Following their big Bedlam win, Oklahoma State is not only in its first-ever Big 12 Championship Game, it hasn’t given up on the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma State beat Baylor this year, it thumped the Bears last year, and the Cowboys come in on a five-game winning streak. Baylor, on the other hand, just barely beat seventh-place Texas Tech.

With so much at stake, the Cowboys keep rolling and win this game by a touchdown.

SEC – No. 1 Georgia (-6.5) vs. No. 4 Alabama

Still, with only one loss, this simply isn’t the Alabama team we’re used to seeing. They escaped with their lives against Auburn a week after struggling to put away Arkansas.

Georgia has been the best team all season long and just hammered in-state rival Georgia Tech by 45. Georgia hasn’t played a quarterback like Bryce Young this season, but they still get the win. As for them covering, give the points at your own risk.

College Football Conference Championship Betting Picks

AAC – No. 16 Houston at No. 3 Cincinnati (-10.5)

Cincinnati is perfect on the season and is now just one win away from becoming the first non-Power 5 Conference team to make the College Football Playoff.

It won’t be easy, as Houston rolls in with eight straight games of at least 30 points. They’ve also gone over 40 points in seven games this season.

Still, the Bearcats will prevail. And with back-to-back wins over Houston by a total of 43 points, they will cover.

Big Ten – No. 2 Michigan (-11) vs. No. 15 Iowa

The monkey is off Jim Harbaugh’s back, as he finally got over the hurdle of Ohio State, and in dominant fashion too.

Michigan’s running game and pass rush will be too much for the Hawkeyes, and Michigan will win its way into the CFP. But Iowa is a good, physical team, and they will keep this final score to within 10 points.

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WagerHome BlogCollege Football Conference Championship Betting Picks

NCAA Football Week 13 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on November 24, 2021

Thanksgiving week gives us an expanded college football weekend, with games on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. And that makes for an expanded weekend of college football betting. Below are our best NCAA Football Week 13 bets!

Mississippi (+1) at Mississippi State

Thanksgiving night, we are treated to the annual Egg Bowl and the high scoring that we are sure to see.

Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers has been on fire. Two weeks ago, against Auburn, he threw for 415 yards and six touchdowns. Last week vs. Tennessee State had added another 391 yards and five touchdowns. He is clearly the right fit for Mike Leach’s air raid offense.

On the other side, we have Lane Kiffin and the Rebels riding a three-game winning streak. Quarterback Matt Corral doesn’t have the gaudy numbers that Rogers has, but his leadership qualities has him currently the first QB on the board for next year’s NFL draft.

He ripped his team after beating Vanderbilt by just two touchdowns and told his team that if they put forth a similar effort against Mississippi State, they will lose.

Corral, Kiffin, and the rest of Ole Miss get it together this week and manage to pull off the win.

Iowa (-1.5) at Nebraska

One of our early Friday games features a Big Ten clash between two teams going in opposite directions. Nebraska has lost five straight games, and they will not be eligible for a bowl game when the season ends. Seven of their eight losses have been by one score, but that is a small moral victory in a season of losses.

Meanwhile, Iowa has won three straight games, has been bowl eligible for a month and a half, and their defense ranks first in the nation with 22 interceptions.

NCAA Football Week 13 Best Bets

Nebraska has been competitive, thus the small point spread. But Iowa is rolling, and their defense is simply too good. Take the Hawkeyes and lay the points.

Oregon State (+7) at Oregon

In each of the last two meetings, Oregon State covered the spread, including an outright win in 2020. But that game was in Corvallis, and we’re back in Eugene this year. Advantage, Ducks.

Oregon has won 11 of the last 13 meetings, and in 2017 they won by 59 points, and in 2018 they won by 40. Advantage, Ducks.

But this year’s Oregon team is not nearly as good as those. They lost at Stanford, were just demolished by Utah last week, and they’ve failed to cover seven times this year. Meanwhile, the Beavers are 7-4 against the spread, are coming off big wins against Stanford and Arizona State, and will do well enough against their rivals to cover another spread.

Take OSU and the points.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football Week 13 Best Bets