Only two full weeks of the college football season remain, then it’s on to the conference championship games. So be sure to get your NCAA Football Week 12 bets in for this coming Saturday.
No. 7 Michigan State at No. 5 Ohio State (-19)
Both teams are in the top 10, and both are 9-1. Which makes the 19-point spread seem too big on the surface. But when we take a closer look, it might not be high enough.
Ohio State’s lone loss was way back in Week 2 at Oregon. It’s hard to compare who the Buckeyes are now vs. who they were in early September. Michigan State’s lone loss came just two weeks ago, at Purdue. The Spartans lost to Purdue by 11 points, who then went to Columbus the next week and lost to Ohio State by 28.
That 39-point swing between MSU and OSU isn’t a perfect extrapolation, but when you consider that Ohio State has six wins of at least 20 points, and Michigan State has just one, you can begin to see the differences.
In the Big Ten, the Buckeyes are in a league by themselves, and they will beat Michigan State by three touchdowns or more.
No. 11 Baylor (-1) at Kansas State
What does Baylor have to do to get respect? They just knocked off the previously unbeaten Oklahoma Sooners, have a previous win against Texas, and they beat Iowa State, who was ranked 14th at the time.
K-State’s most impressive home win came against West Virginia last week, a team outside the top-50 and one that lost to Baylor by 25 points in Week 6.
Baylor hasn’t been great when playing on the road, but one of their two losses came at top-10 Oklahoma State. One point at the Wildcats just doesn’t seem like enough for a team that is playing its best football of the season. At that small spread, a bet on Baylor comes with great value.
No. 13 Wake Forest at Clemson Tigers (-4.5)
Clearly, Clemson isn’t what it was with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. The Tigers have taken a step back, while Wake Forest has taken a big step forward. The Demon Deacons were below .500 last season. Now they are at the top of the ACC and ranked 13th in the nation.
But Clemson has that 32-game home winning streak, and even though they aren’t in the College Football Playoff picture for the first time since 2015, they are still good. And Clemson Memorial Stadium, better known as Death Valley, is a tough place for any road team to play.
Not only does the 32-game winning streak not end on Saturday, Clemson covers the 4.5-point spread.
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Oklahoma is clearly the more talented team in this matchup, but they aren’t covering 20 points. Take the points and look for the Red Raiders to provide a challenge.
Still, in spite of that epic collapse, the Longhorns are favorites this week against Oklahoma State.
OU is averaging 38 points per game, and on the other side, Texas is averaging nearly 44 points per game. The Longhorns have hit the over in three of their last four games, and this week it will be four of five.
Cincinnati is very good, and they will push the Irish all game long. But the lack of respect for Notre Dame at home and as a top-10 team, no doubt, has ruffled some feathers. Look for Notre Dame to respond, much like they did last week, and win this game outright. Take Notre Dame and the points.
