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Early College Football Playoff Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 6, 2021

Hello darkness, my old friend…

For those of you (us) that thought finally we were going to avoid having to watch Alabama in the College Football Playoff, not so fast. ‘Bama is back in the CFP for the seventh time in eight seasons on the strength of a dominating win over Georgia to win the SEC.

The win was good enough, and Nick Saban’s history is decorated enough for the Crimson Tide to be the favorite to win the National Championship.

Alabama (+120)
Georgia (+140)
Michigan (+700)
Cincinnati (+1600)

Alabama has the best coach in the country, regularly the best roster in the country, and has quarterback Bryce Young, who is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Even though this was a disappointing season by Tuscaloosa standards, they are the favorite, and it’s easy to see why.

No. 1 Alabama (-14) vs. No. 4 Cincinnati – Cotton Bowl

The four teams that made it in did it without controversy. But the seeding of the four teams is not without argument. As good as Cincinnati has been this season, everyone wanted to be seeded first so they could play the Bearcats.

Alabama gets that honor, jumping from No. 3 to No. 1 because of their win over Georgia. As selection committee chair Gary Barta explained, “Not only did Alabama beat Georgia – the way they beat them. They controlled the game, pretty much from start to finish.”

Couldn’t Barta say the same thing about Michigan, who Alabama leapfrogged? In fact, you could say it, but without the “pretty much,” because Michigan’s 42-3 was every bit start to finish dominating win.

Saying that Alabama’s one win was more impressive than Michigan’s last two wins is questionable, but that’s what the committee did, and the Tide gets Cincinnati in the semifinal. However, they will have to do it without star wide receiver John Metchie III, who is out with a significant ACL injury.

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia (-7.5) – Orange Bowl

If there was one knock on Georgia, it was wins over quality teams. They played lots of great football this season, but their schedule was without any top-10 teams. Until they faced No. 3 Alabama, and that didn’t go so well.

Now they get a team that has dominating wins over a pair of top-10 teams, Wisconsin and Ohio State. And Michigan just won the Big Ten with a blowout over Iowa, 42-3.

But we know that Georgia is still really good. Michigan still has Jim Harbaugh as its head coach, and his ability to win big games is still in doubt. And being runner-up in the SEC is still considered just as good as winning most other conferences.

And for all of those reasons, Georgia is more than a touchdown favorite to win their semifinal and set up a rematch with Alabama in the Championship Game.

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College Football Conference Championship Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 1, 2021

It is Conference Championship Week, and not only is it the last weekend to get in your regular-season college football bets, it’s one of the best weekends of the year.

Pac-12 – No. 10 Oregon vs. No. 14 Utah (-3)

We get started on Friday night, as Oregon and Utah meet in Las Vegas. It’s hard not to look at Utah’s thrashing of Oregon two weeks ago and think we’ll see the same thing this week. Clearly, it’s what Vegas is seeing, making the lower-ranked Utes the favorites.

Oregon just hasn’t been the same Oregon team that was in the previous two Pac-12 Championships. Utah will win and cover and go to its first Rose Bowl.

Big 12 – No. 5 Oklahoma State (-5.5) vs. No. 9 Baylor

Following their big Bedlam win, Oklahoma State is not only in its first-ever Big 12 Championship Game, it hasn’t given up on the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma State beat Baylor this year, it thumped the Bears last year, and the Cowboys come in on a five-game winning streak. Baylor, on the other hand, just barely beat seventh-place Texas Tech.

With so much at stake, the Cowboys keep rolling and win this game by a touchdown.

SEC – No. 1 Georgia (-6.5) vs. No. 4 Alabama

Still, with only one loss, this simply isn’t the Alabama team we’re used to seeing. They escaped with their lives against Auburn a week after struggling to put away Arkansas.

Georgia has been the best team all season long and just hammered in-state rival Georgia Tech by 45. Georgia hasn’t played a quarterback like Bryce Young this season, but they still get the win. As for them covering, give the points at your own risk.

AAC – No. 16 Houston at No. 3 Cincinnati (-10.5)

Cincinnati is perfect on the season and is now just one win away from becoming the first non-Power 5 Conference team to make the College Football Playoff.

It won’t be easy, as Houston rolls in with eight straight games of at least 30 points. They’ve also gone over 40 points in seven games this season.

Still, the Bearcats will prevail. And with back-to-back wins over Houston by a total of 43 points, they will cover.

Big Ten – No. 2 Michigan (-11) vs. No. 15 Iowa

The monkey is off Jim Harbaugh’s back, as he finally got over the hurdle of Ohio State, and in dominant fashion too.

Michigan’s running game and pass rush will be too much for the Hawkeyes, and Michigan will win its way into the CFP. But Iowa is a good, physical team, and they will keep this final score to within 10 points.

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NCAA Football Week 13 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on November 24, 2021

Thanksgiving week gives us an expanded college football weekend, with games on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. And that makes for an expanded weekend of college football betting. Below are our best NCAA Football Week 13 bets!

Mississippi (+1) at Mississippi State

Thanksgiving night, we are treated to the annual Egg Bowl and the high scoring that we are sure to see.

Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers has been on fire. Two weeks ago, against Auburn, he threw for 415 yards and six touchdowns. Last week vs. Tennessee State had added another 391 yards and five touchdowns. He is clearly the right fit for Mike Leach’s air raid offense.

On the other side, we have Lane Kiffin and the Rebels riding a three-game winning streak. Quarterback Matt Corral doesn’t have the gaudy numbers that Rogers has, but his leadership qualities has him currently the first QB on the board for next year’s NFL draft.

He ripped his team after beating Vanderbilt by just two touchdowns and told his team that if they put forth a similar effort against Mississippi State, they will lose.

Corral, Kiffin, and the rest of Ole Miss get it together this week and manage to pull off the win.

Iowa (-1.5) at Nebraska

One of our early Friday games features a Big Ten clash between two teams going in opposite directions. Nebraska has lost five straight games, and they will not be eligible for a bowl game when the season ends. Seven of their eight losses have been by one score, but that is a small moral victory in a season of losses.

Meanwhile, Iowa has won three straight games, has been bowl eligible for a month and a half, and their defense ranks first in the nation with 22 interceptions.

Nebraska has been competitive, thus the small point spread. But Iowa is rolling, and their defense is simply too good. Take the Hawkeyes and lay the points.

Oregon State (+7) at Oregon

In each of the last two meetings, Oregon State covered the spread, including an outright win in 2020. But that game was in Corvallis, and we’re back in Eugene this year. Advantage, Ducks.

Oregon has won 11 of the last 13 meetings, and in 2017 they won by 59 points, and in 2018 they won by 40. Advantage, Ducks.

But this year’s Oregon team is not nearly as good as those. They lost at Stanford, were just demolished by Utah last week, and they’ve failed to cover seven times this year. Meanwhile, the Beavers are 7-4 against the spread, are coming off big wins against Stanford and Arizona State, and will do well enough against their rivals to cover another spread.

Take OSU and the points.

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NCAA Football Week 12 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on November 16, 2021

Only two full weeks of the college football season remain, then it’s on to the conference championship games. So be sure to get your NCAA Football Week 12 bets in for this coming Saturday.

No. 7 Michigan State at No. 5 Ohio State (-19)

Both teams are in the top 10, and both are 9-1. Which makes the 19-point spread seem too big on the surface. But when we take a closer look, it might not be high enough.

Ohio State’s lone loss was way back in Week 2 at Oregon. It’s hard to compare who the Buckeyes are now vs. who they were in early September. Michigan State’s lone loss came just two weeks ago, at Purdue. The Spartans lost to Purdue by 11 points, who then went to Columbus the next week and lost to Ohio State by 28.

That 39-point swing between MSU and OSU isn’t a perfect extrapolation, but when you consider that Ohio State has six wins of at least 20 points, and Michigan State has just one, you can begin to see the differences.

In the Big Ten, the Buckeyes are in a league by themselves, and they will beat Michigan State by three touchdowns or more.

No. 11 Baylor (-1) at Kansas State

What does Baylor have to do to get respect? They just knocked off the previously unbeaten Oklahoma Sooners, have a previous win against Texas, and they beat Iowa State, who was ranked 14th at the time.

K-State’s most impressive home win came against West Virginia last week, a team outside the top-50 and one that lost to Baylor by 25 points in Week 6.

Baylor hasn’t been great when playing on the road, but one of their two losses came at top-10 Oklahoma State. One point at the Wildcats just doesn’t seem like enough for a team that is playing its best football of the season. At that small spread, a bet on Baylor comes with great value.

No. 13 Wake Forest at Clemson Tigers (-4.5)

Clearly, Clemson isn’t what it was with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. The Tigers have taken a step back, while Wake Forest has taken a big step forward. The Demon Deacons were below .500 last season. Now they are at the top of the ACC and ranked 13th in the nation.

But Clemson has that 32-game home winning streak, and even though they aren’t in the College Football Playoff picture for the first time since 2015, they are still good. And Clemson Memorial Stadium, better known as Death Valley, is a tough place for any road team to play.

Not only does the 32-game winning streak not end on Saturday, Clemson covers the 4.5-point spread.

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NCAA Football Week 11 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on November 9, 2021

We’re in the final weeks of the college football season, and teams are jockeying for position in both the upcoming conference championship games and with the hopes that a College Football Playoff is in their future. Let’s take a look at the best bets for the NCAA Football Week 11!

Cincinnati Bearcats (-23) at South Florida Bulls

The Cincinnati Bearcats is one such team with College Football Playoff dreams that are in danger of not being realized. The Bearcats are still undefeated, but they aren’t collecting a lot of impressive wins. Cincinnati began October in impressive fashion, beating Notre Dame and then recording huge wins over Temple and Central Florida.

Since then, however, it was a touchdown victory over Navy, plus an eight-point win over Tulsa. It’s been three straight wins without a cover, and they are missing the cover by an average of 15 points per game. Against Navy, they missed by a full three touchdowns.

This is the week that changes and Cincinnati responds. Needing a big win, they get it and beat South Florida by at least four touchdowns.

Texas A&M at Mississippi (+2.5)

The mid-season stretch that saw Texas A&M lose two consecutive games is a distant memory. After losing to Arkansas and Mississippi State, the Aggies upset Alabama and have been on cruise control ever since.

Four straight covers, beginning with Alabama, is making Texas A&M one of the best bets in college football. Most recently was a 20-3 win over Auburn, where the defense was its most dominating self. A&M is giving up just 14 points and 318 yards per game.

Ole Miss is coming off another big performance by quarterback Matt Corral. He threw for 324 yards last Saturday and has the Rebels averaging 9.2 yards per pass play. They’re also averaging almost 36 points per game.

At home, and with the way Corral is playing, it’s nice to get points, even against a good team like A&M. Take Mississippi and the points.

Oklahoma at Baylor (+5.5)

Oklahoma has its sights set on the College Football Playoff, even as the Sooner have been up and down all year long. Up, in that, they remain a perfect 9-0. But down, in that, there have been a number of close calls, and pre-season Heisman Trophy favorite Spencer Rattler has been benched.

The benching has worked, with Caleb Williams proving more than capable of leading the Sooners. But still, they are underperforming as a team. Beating Kansas by 12, with the spread at 38, as a prime example. It makes this weekend’s game at Baylor interesting.

The Bears are tough, especially in Waco, and they have covered six of their nine games this season. Against Oklahoma, they will make it seven in 10 games. Take Baylor and the points.

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NCAA Football Week 10 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on November 2, 2021

As the college football season moves into November, there are still five undefeated teams. And with all five from different conferences, it is conceivable that we could end the year with five unbeaten teams all vying for the four College Football Playoff spots.

That is why impressing on the field at this point in the season is so important and why it gives us a window into NCAA Football Week 10 best bets.

Missouri at No. 1 Georgia (-38)

Missouri is 4-4 and playing to be bowl eligible. And with that incentive, the 38-point spread feels like a huge number for Georgia to cover.

Maybe, but consider these facts. Georgia is 6-2 against the spread this year and has easily covered big spreads against much better teams, like Arkansas and Florida. Missouri did just beat Vanderbilt by nine points, but Georgia beat Vandy by 62.

Finally, even though Missouri has four wins on the season, they are 0-8 against the spread this season. That’s right. Not once, in victory or defeat, have the Tigers covered a spread in 2021.

Unbeaten Georgia will smash Missouri by at least 40 points. Take the Bulldogs and lay the points.

No. 10 Wake Forest (+2.5) at North Carolina

Wake Forest is one of the five unbeaten teams left in the country, yet the Deacons head into Saturday’s game as underdogs to North Carolina. The Tar Heels do have a great offense led by quarterback Sam Howell, but the Heels are just 4-4 and haven’t fared well of late.

Wake Forest rolls into the game, coming off a 38-point win against Duke. UNC is coming off a 10-point loss to Notre Dame.

Both teams recorded big wins over Duke, but against another shared opponent, Wake beat Florida State by 21, and the Heels lost to the Noles by 10.

It’s true that Wake Forest hasn’t won at Chapel Hill since 2006, but that streak ends on Saturday. Take the Demon Deacons and the points.

No. 12 Auburn at No. 13 Texas A&M (-4)

The only game this week between ranked teams is an SEC showdown between the best of the second tier in that conference. The top tier is, of course, Georgia and Alabama.

Although Alabama plays a big role in where you should put your betting dollars on Saturday. The reason Alabama isn’t No. 1 in the nation and undefeated is because of these Texas A&M Aggies and their three-point upset victory on October 9th. Since then, the Aggies have had impressive covers against Missouri and South Carolina, winning by 21 and 30 points.

Auburn is no slouch, with a big cover against Arkansas three weeks ago. But at home at Kyle Field, the Aggies will prove to be too much. A&M wins by a touchdown and covers this spread.

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NCAA Week 9 Best College Football Bets of the Week

by WagerHome Blog on October 27, 2021

The college football season just continues to deliver each season, and there is another loaded slate of games on tap for Week 9. There is a top-10 showdown in the Big Ten Conference to highlight things, but there are several other great games as well.

The betting action for these games continues to heat up as well, and you can take matters into your own hands by launching a pay per head site. Here are three of the best NCAA Week 9 college football bets.

Michigan State Spartans +4.5 vs. Michigan Wolverines

One of the best rivalries in college football renew on Saturday when Michigan State hosts Michigan. There is always drama surrounding this game, but even more so this season as each team is in the Top-10.

Both teams run the football exceptionally well, and this game is going to be won in the trenches. Michigan has the ability to be more explosive on offense, but Michigan State has a defense that is nasty.

Home-field advantage plays a major role in this rivalry, and it’s strange to see the home team as an underdog. The right play in this game is to take the 4.5-point and bet on the Spartans in the Big Ten Conference rivalry game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders +20.0 at Oklahoma Sooners

The Oklahoma Sooners are once again on top of the Big 12 Conference, and they have also moved up to number four in the country. That doesn’t mean that Oklahoma has been dominant this season, as that has not been the case.

Texas Tech is 5-3 on the season, but they missed a great chance to move to 6-2 by blowing a big lead to Kansas State. The Red Raiders can score points in a hurry, and that always makes them dangerous.

Oklahoma is clearly the more talented team in this matchup, but they aren’t covering 20 points. Take the points and look for the Red Raiders to provide a challenge.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3.5 vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

The final game to focus on for Saturday night takes place in South Bend as the Fighting Irish host the UNC Tar Heels. Notre Dame has not been dominant in 2021, but they also come into this game with just one loss.

North Carolina burst onto the scene a season ago, but they have struggled to find their rhythm this season. The Tar Heels want to score points, but they are going up against a great defense.

This game could be close for a half, but it will be all Notre Dame after that. Take the Fighting Irish -3.5 as they move to 7-1 with a double-digit win.

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NCAA Week 8 Best College Football Bets

by WagerHome Blog on October 19, 2021

In Week 7, we watched No. 2 Iowa suffer a stunning loss to Purdue. Alabama is back after losing to Texas A&M, as they easily handled Mississippi State. And Oklahoma has a star in the making in freshman quarterback Calen Williams, who got another big Sooners win.

It’s now Week 8, and the best college football betting continues. Check out our best NCAA Week 8 college football bets below.

Tennessee at Alabama (-27.5)

Beware an angry Nick Saban. Finishing undefeated and playing for a national championship feels to Saban like a birthright, which is why the loss to Texas A&M back on October 9th was so hard for him to take.

Enter last week, where he took a 17.5-point spread against Mississippi State and turned it into a 40-point win. And this week, he’s now supposed to beat Tennessee by four touchdowns, and you would be foolish to bet against him.

The Volunteers have covered three of six games this year, and they’ve won four games by at least 25 points. But this week, it’s going to be a big loss in Tuscaloosa. The Tide will cover.

Northwestern at Michigan (-21.5)

It’s been quite some time since Michigan played a blowout win. In their first three games, the Wolverines won by an average margin of victory of 35 points. In their last three, the average margin of victory is 10. Although they covered in the last two games, with wins over Wisconsin and Nebraska.

One of those wins for Michigan was at Nebraska, a team that beat Northwestern by 49. This week’s Michigan win isn’t going to be by that seven-touchdown margin, but it will eclipse the three-touchdown margin of the current point spread.

Michigan rolls against the Wildcats and wins this game by more than 28 points. Bet on them to cover the spread.

Cincinnati (-28.0) at Navy

Cincinnati is 6-0 on the season and 5-1 against the spread, including a 2-0 mark ATS when going on the road. That includes a 10-point cover at Indiana and an 8.5-point cover at Notre Dame. The Bearcats have climbed to the No. 2 ranking in the country, and as much as it was a longshot when the season began, this team is making a solid claim for a playoff spot.

There is only one more ranked team on the schedule, and it isn’t Navy. Cincinnati needs impressive wins, and that requires a cover against the Midshipmen, who just lost by 18 to Memphis. The Bearcats get it done and continue to justify their high national ranking.

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NCAA Week 7 Best College Football Bets

by WagerHome Blog on October 13, 2021

Following one of the wildest weeks in college football in recent memory, we have even more great matchups in Week 7. Here are the betting predictions to go with them.

No. 11 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia (-22.5)

Georgia plays its first game as the top-ranked team in the country since the 1983 Sugar Bowl and the days of Herschel Walker. Kentucky is 6-0 for the first time since a young Bear Bryant was their head coach in 1950.

It’s rarified air for this weekend’s matchup in Athens, Georgia, and on the surface, a more than three-touchdown point spread seems like a lot. Well, it is a lot, but Georgia is a lot as a football team. Not only do they lead the nation in points and yards allowed, they are scoring almost 40 points per game, which is 12th in the country.

Georgia has covered the spread in five of six games and by comfortable margins. Last week they covered by 10. The week before that, they covered by 21. Back on the final Saturday in September, the spread was 36, and they won by 62.

Nothing quite as impressive will happen this week against the Wildcats, but the Bulldogs are a good bet to do it again. Lay the points.

No. 12 Oklahoma State (+5.5) at No. 25 Texas

For 30 minutes last week, it looked like Texas football was all the way back. They were dominating the rival Oklahoma Sooners in every way imaginable. Then the final 30 minutes happened, and Texas was hit by the reality that they aren’t quite back, and their final game against Oklahoma inside the Big 12 was lost.

Still, in spite of that epic collapse, the Longhorns are favorites this week against Oklahoma State.

Texas’s offense is very good and probably the best the Cowboys have seen. But OSU has a great defense, is 5-0, and has covered the spread in three straight weeks. Oklahoma State may fall short in its bid to upset Texas, but they keep this game close enough to cover.

No. 18 Arizona State (-1) at Utah

In late Saturday action, it’s Arizona State, in first place in the Pac-12 South, taking on Utah. ASU is 5-1, with the lone blemish on their record coming the last time they traveled to the state of Utah, a September 18th loss at BYU.

Since then, the Sun Devils have covered three straight games and have won easily over Colorado, UCLA, and Stanford. The 3-2 Utes give them a good game, but in the end, ASU will win by more than a point.

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NCAA Football Week 6 Best Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on October 6, 2021

As we hit the second weekend of October, the air begins to get a chill, and the NCAA football matchups heat up.

No.2 Georgia (-14.5) at No. 18 Auburn

Georgia really is this good. Without quarterback JT Daniels and facing an excellent Arkansas team, the Bulldogs posted a second consecutive shutout on their way to a 37-0 blowout. The Razorbacks finished the game with just 156 yards of total offense.

Auburn had a slip against Penn State and looked lackluster when facing Georgia State, but an upset win last week at LSU – their first win in Baton Rouge since 1999 – has things looking up for the Tigers. But simply put, they aren’t in Georgia’s league. They won’t get above 14 points, while the Bulldogs will break 30 for the fifth game in a row.

Take Georgia and lay the points.

No. 13 Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss (-6)

Arkansas was exposed last week. They are a very good team, but they are not ready to be elite. And this week, they are facing one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the country in Matt Corral. They faced a backup quarterback against Texas A&M, a backup quarterback against Georgia, and now they face a guy who is the second-highest betting favorite to win the Heisman.

Ole Miss was humbled last week at Alabama. They want to get the taste of that defeat out of their mouths quickly, and that happens this week against the Razorbacks. Take the Rebels to cover.

No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 21 Texas (Over 63.5)

In four games against the FBS competition, Oklahoma has yet to cover the spread. Last week against Kansas State, the spread was 15, and they only won 37-31.

But that score is important. It was a full 15 points over the total of 53, and two other times this season, they hit the over on totals at 66 and 66.5.

OU is averaging 38 points per game, and on the other side, Texas is averaging nearly 44 points per game. The Longhorns have hit the over in three of their last four games, and this week it will be four of five.

Wyoming at Air Force (-6)

It’s the Mountain West Conference, and the teams are unranked, so this game may be off your radar. But it should be on it, as the Falcons are proving to be one of the better bets this season, while Wyoming is a disappointment.

The Cowboys barely beat FCS Montana State and squeaked by UConn, despite being 31-point favorites. Air Force has covered in three of their last four games, including a blowout win at New Mexico last week, and they cover again this Saturday.

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No. 1 Alabama (-14) vs. No. 4 Cincinnati – Cotton Bowl

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia (-7.5) – Orange Bowl

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Pac-12 – No. 10 Oregon vs. No. 14 Utah (-3)

Big 12 – No. 5 Oklahoma State (-5.5) vs. No. 9 Baylor

SEC – No. 1 Georgia (-6.5) vs. No. 4 Alabama

AAC – No. 16 Houston at No. 3 Cincinnati (-10.5)

Big Ten – No. 2 Michigan (-11) vs. No. 15 Iowa

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Mississippi (+1) at Mississippi State

Iowa (-1.5) at Nebraska

Oregon State (+7) at Oregon

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No. 7 Michigan State at No. 5 Ohio State (-19)

No. 11 Baylor (-1) at Kansas State

No. 13 Wake Forest at Clemson Tigers (-4.5)

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Cincinnati Bearcats (-23) at South Florida Bulls

Texas A&M at Mississippi (+2.5)

Oklahoma at Baylor (+5.5)

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Missouri at No. 1 Georgia (-38)

No. 10 Wake Forest (+2.5) at North Carolina

No. 12 Auburn at No. 13 Texas A&M (-4)

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Michigan State Spartans +4.5 vs. Michigan Wolverines

Texas Tech Red Raiders +20.0 at Oklahoma Sooners

Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3.5 vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

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Tennessee at Alabama (-27.5)

Northwestern at Michigan (-21.5)

Cincinnati (-28.0) at Navy

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No. 11 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia (-22.5)

No. 12 Oklahoma State (+5.5) at No. 25 Texas

No. 18 Arizona State (-1) at Utah

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No.2 Georgia (-14.5) at No. 18 Auburn

No. 13 Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss (-6)

No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 21 Texas (Over 63.5)

Wyoming at Air Force (-6)

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