If you’ve been betting the favorites at the start of the 2021 NASCAR season, you haven’t done well. Michael McDowell, a +10000 longshot, drove to victory at Daytona and won his first race in 358 career Cup Series starts. A week later, on the road course at Daytona, it was Christopher Bell, at +6000, winning the O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 for his first-ever Cup Series win. These longshot winners have revealed an exciting trend that we hope continues at the Dixie Vodka 400 as we survey the field of contenders.
So when will things go to form? Is this the week the favorites actually complete the task?
Dixie Vodka 400 Favorites
Here are the top-10 favorites to win the Dixie Vodka 400 with odds to both win the race and finish top-3.
- Denny Hamlin (+500/+140)
- Chase Elliott (+600/+175)
- Kevin Harvick (+600/+175)
- Martin Truex, Jr. (+700/+200)
- Kyle Larson (+800/+225)
- Kyle Busch (+1000/+275)
- Joey Logano (+1000/+275)
- Brad Keselowski (+1300/+375)
- Ryan Blaney (+1600+450)
- Tyler Reddick (+2200/+550)
Denny Hamlin is the defending champion here at the Dixie Vodka 400, and he finished 5th at the 500 and 3rd on the road course. He is a solid favorite to win this race and the safest of all the bets.
Joey Logano was a winner at Homestead in 2018, and he’s finished at least 6th or higher in five of his last six starts here. He’s also been an eyelash away from victory in the first two races this season. Logano was leading with just two laps to go on the road course before he was passed by Bell. He was leading on the final lap at the 500 before he and Brad Keselowski collided, allowing McDowell to sneak in for the win.
Ryan Blaney has struggled to begin the season. He finished 30th at the 500 and 15th on the road course. His last time out at Homestead, however, he finished 3rd. And at +1600, he presents a really nice potential payday.
Others to Watch
Just outside the top-10 at 14th on the odds list is Austin Dillon, paying +2500 to win and +1000 to finish top-3. In his last two races at Homestead, he finished in 7th place and 8th place. He’s been running great this month, with a win at the Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 and a 3rd place finish at the Daytona 500.
And what are the odds that Christopher Bell wins a second straight Cup Series race? As a winner, he is paying +2800 and +700 to finish top-3. Not only did he just win, but he was also good at Homestead in his one career start there. In 2020 he started the race in 36th but finished the race in 8th place.
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