NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 7, 2021

In Week 13, three AFC teams with playoff hopes lost winnable games at home. The shocking result in the NFC was the Detroit Lions getting their first win against the playoff-hopeful Vikings. So what is going to happen in NFL Week 14?

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns

Yes, the Ravens are coming off a loss at Pittsburgh. Yes, they just lost corner Marlon Humphrey for the season. And yes, Lamar Jackson has the second-most interceptions in the NFL with 13.

But the Browns continue to be one of the most injured teams in the NFL, and no one is sure just how long Baker Mayfield can hold up physically. And these teams just played each other in Week 12, and the Ravens won the game, even with four Jackson interceptions.

Chances of another four interceptions coming gift-wrapped for Cleveland are long, and if the Browns couldn’t win then, why should they be favorites now?

Take the points.

New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+6)

The Jets lost again last week because they are the Jets, but Zach Wilson wasn’t all that bad. It was easily his best game in two months, and it gives New York fans a little hope that this season isn’t a total loss.

The Saints, on the other hand, have to look at 2021 as a total loss. Injuries have killed them, and having no real or clear plan for quarterback succession has left them with a five-game losing streak.

We finally got to see Taysom Hill at QB, and while it started well, it ended rather poorly. His injured finger doesn’t require surgery, but how can New Orleans be almost a touchdown favorite?

The Saints are bad, Hill isn’t healthy, and all other options are horrible. Take the Jets and the points.

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

These are tough times for the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots were supposed to be rebuilding, and the Bills were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender. But on Monday, the Patriots got a big leg up on the race for the AFC East by winning in the snow and wind of Buffalo.

Now, when you face a must-win game to keep pace in the division race, you’re facing the biggest of all thorns in your side, Tom Brady.

The Bills are reeling, and the Buccaneers are rolling. Buffalo is missing their best defensive back, Tre’Davious White, and Brady is playing like the MVP favorite, which he is.

Tampa Bay has won three straight, Buffalo has lost two of three, and the Bucs win this game by at least a touchdown.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 14 Betting Picks

NFL Week 11 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on November 17, 2021

Week 10 was the week of blowouts, with six wins by 20 points or more and another two wins by 17 points. Which point spreads are safe for NFL Week 11?

Detroit Lions (+10) at Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb is expected back for the Browns running game, while the status for Kareem Hunt remains unclear. But to be fair, D’Ernest Johnson had 157 total yards in their absence on Sunday, and the Browns still got blown out.

Getting their running backs healthy won’t help much. The Cleveland defense is incredibly disappointing, and Baker Mayfield continues to rack up the injuries and below-average performances.

Detroit, on the other hand, is more competitive than not. In two of the three games in which they have been at least a touchdown underdog, they have covered the spread. They lost to the Ravens by two, the Rams by nine, the Vikings by two, and they tied the Steelers.

The Browns will win on Sunday, but the Lions keep the final score to within one touchdown.

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Panthers fans were desperate to welcome back Christian McCaffrey throughout the month of October. That’s gone well, with 257 total yards for McCaffrey in the last two weeks.

Unexpectedly, however, was the welcoming back of Cam Newton. The last time these two played significant time together, the Panthers had a top-10 offense.

The McCaffrey-Newton combo isn’t going to become top-10 this season, but a bit of offensive resurgence isn’t unexpected. And when you consider how the Carolina defense is playing, don’t be surprised if the Panthers make the playoffs.

NFL Week 11 Betting Picks

Washington is coming off a huge win, but a big loss of Chase Young to a torn ACL. CMC has a big day against WFT, and the Panthers cover this spread.

New York Giants (+11.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes, Tom Brady is angry after two straight losses, and he wants to take out his frustrations on the next opponent. Yes, it was the Giants who beat Brady twice in the Super Bowl, and he always enjoys beating them. But no, the issues with the Bucs will not be solved by the will of Tom Brady.

A very limited Washington offense just drove the ball 80 yards on 19 plays to seal the win over the Bucs. Brady can’t cover for that. Richard Sherman is now out with a calf injury, and it’s unclear when he might return. Vita Vea will also be out of the game because of an injury.

The wide receivers are banged up, the defense is short-handed, and the Giants will go into Tampa Bay and cover the spread. Take the points and New York.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 11 Betting Picks

NFL Week 8 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on October 27, 2021

We are nearing the halfway point of the NFL season, and the action around the league is heating up. There are some big games on the schedule in Week 8, but more importantly, there are some great NFL Week 8 betting opportunities to be had.

Arizona Cardinals -6.5 vs. Green Bay Packers

The 7-0 Arizona Cardinals host the 6-1 Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 8. These are two of the best teams in the NFL this season, but the Packers are coming into this game shorthanded.

Green Bay could be without their top three wide receivers due to injuries and COVID-19, and that is going to have a big impact on this game. Arizona is scoring over 32 points per game, and the Packers will need to score to keep this game close.

This would be a great game if both teams were at full strength, but that won’t be the case in this one. Take the Arizona Cardinals -6.5 as they win this game by a touchdown at least.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.0 at New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints pose the biggest challenge to Tampa Bay in the NFC South, but it’s not a very big threat. Tampa Bay has been rolling over opponents this season, and they will be looking to make a statement in New Orleans.

The Saints are allowing less than 17 points per game this season, but they haven’t faced an offense this good yet. Tom Brady has already thrown for 21 touchdowns this season, and this should be another huge day for the Tampa Bay offense.

NFL Week 8 Betting Picks

New Orleans can make this a competitive game, but they just don’t have enough weapons to win the game. Take the Buccaneers -5.0 as they move to 7-1.

Kansas City Chiefs -10.0 vs. New York Giants

The Kansas City Chiefs are an absolute mess, and their 3-4 start has to be one of the biggest surprises in football. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown nine interceptions this season, and that defense has been a disaster.

The Chiefs host the 2-5 New York Giants on Monday night, and this feels like the perfect time to turn things around. Kansas City is too talented to continue to lose games, and they should feast on a bad Giants team in this one.

New York is dealing with a number of injuries to key players, and this could get out of hand in a hurry. Take the Chiefs -10.0 as the Monday Night Football Game turns into a blowout.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 8 Betting Picks

NFL Week 5 Betting Picks of the Week

by WagerHome Blog on October 7, 2021

As the NFL rounds the quarter pole on the season, we take a look at the best point spreads to bet in Week 5.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Packers’ start to the season is a distant memory. From a blowout loss to New Orleans to three straight good wins and three wins in a row against the spread.

Aaron Rodgers is fine. His offseason is a non-factor. Aaron Jones, playing with his father’s ashes, looks like the star he is, and when he’s not finding running lanes, he’s catching passes. And as pass catchers go, no one is better than Davante Adams.

The Bengals are also 3-1 on the season, but injuries are becoming an issue, and they most recently played an uninspiring game against the Jaguars.

The Packers go into Cincinnati and win by a touchdown.

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)

The Dolphins are still a week away from getting Tua Tagovailoa back, which means it’s Jacoby Brissett under center for another game. And this time, it’s a game at the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.

The Bucs have failed to cover the spread for two straight weeks and are just 1-3 on the season ATS. But those three losses have come against teams proving to be better than we thought they were. The Dolphins are failing to cover the spread against the likes of the then-winless Indianapolis Colts.

NFL Week 5 Betting Picks of the WeekMiami is one of the biggest disappointments of the early season, and it will get worse this week with a loss at Tampa Bay by at least two touchdowns.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) at Carolina Panthers

Carolina was the most unlikely of the undefeateds through three weeks, and now we’re wondering just how far the fall will be without Christian McCaffrey. Maybe not too far, but far enough that they shouldn’t be more than a field goal favorite against the Eagles.

Jalen Hurts is playing well, and the Eagles front-seven will keep Sam Darnold off-balance all afternoon. If the Panthers do manage to rebound for the win, it will be by less than three points. Take the points and the Eagles.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5)

The Titans defense is going to be a liability all season long and against all opponents – even the bad ones. The Jaguars are definitely a bad team, but Tennessee just got torched by Zach Wilson, and Trevor Lawrence will have a big game on Sunday.

The Jags may not pull off the upset, but the bad Titans’ defense keeps this game to within three points. You may not want to do it often, but this week take the Jags.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 5 Betting Picks of the Week

Consider Wagering These Five Super Bowl Prop Bets

by WagerHome Blog on February 2, 2021

One of the great things about Super Bowl prop bets is that they are a fun way to watch the game without taking the game too seriously. The opening coin toss, the length of the National Anthem, and the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach’s head are all somewhat lighthearted, playful prop bets.

But that isn’t true of all proposition bets. Some of them can become valuable money-making plays when you dig into the numbers just a little bit.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Total Number of Sacks Over/Under – 3.5

This feels like an obvious bet on the over. All you need is four sacks to hit, and the Buccaneers just recorded five sacks against a superior Packers offensive line. The Chiefs, for their part, just got to a much more mobile Josh Allen four times. That’s nine sacks between these two teams in the Championship Games.

The teams only combined for three sacks when they met in November, but the Chiefs offensive line was healthier then, and the Buccaneers defense was more banged up. The over on 3.5 total sacks is a solid play.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Combined Rushing Attempts Over/Under – 50.5

Even with a big lead in the AFC Championship, the Chiefs only ran the ball 25 times. The Bucs were running the clock late in the game against Green Bay and only made it to 24 rushes. When the teams met in November, the Chiefs got out to a big lead but still only rushed 13 times. The combined rushing attempts total in that game was just 33.

It’s hard to picture a scenario where both teams become rush heavy enough to hit the over. Go under 50.5 total rushes.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Combined Passing Attempts Over/Under – 80.5

Working off the under for rushing attempts, bet the over on passing attempts. In the November game, Tampa Bay and Kansas City threw the ball 91 times. It just makes sense to take the over here.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Patrick Mahomes Props

There are many good prop bets surrounding Patrick Mahomes, but one that is highly recommended is: Mahomes over 400 yards and Chiefs win.

It pays +270, which sets up a nice payday for the exact scenario that played the last time these teams played. In that Chiefs win, Mahomes threw for 462 yards.

 

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Rob Gronkowski Prop Bets

The future Hall of Fame tight end hasn’t been a huge part of the Buccaneers offense this season, but he has been a Kansas City killer in the past. In the AFC Championship two years ago, he caught six passes for 79 yards against the Chiefs.

The prop: Rob Gronkowski over 80 yards paired with a Buccaneers win pays +900. Kansas City has the corners to cover the Tampa Bay wide receivers. They don’t have much in the way of coverage linebackers, and Gronk could feast. At +900, it’s definitely worth a play.

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WagerHome BlogConsider Wagering These Five Super Bowl Prop Bets

2021 NFC Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on January 21, 2021

In our 2021 NFC Championship Betting Preview, we will preview both games, include a pick, and cover how you can make the most out of the game by partnering with a pay per head service provider like WagerHome.com.

The NFL is unabashedly a quarterback league, and the NFC Championship Game is a showcase of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game. It is six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady, the most decorated quarterback in NFL history, against two-time MVP winner Aaron Rodgers, arguably the most talented quarterback in NFL history. And Rodgers is a couple of weeks away from adding a third MVP.

2021 NFC Championship Betting Preview: Offensive Firepower

While they are two of the all-time greats, Sunday’s winner won’t solely be determined by the quarterbacks. Both teams are loaded at wide receiver. The Packers feature Davante Adams and his 18 touchdowns this year, and the Bucs counter with Mike Evans and his 13 touchdowns.

On the ground, it’s the Battle of the JonesAaron Jones for Green Bay and Ronald Jones for Tampa Bay. Both of them finished the season averaging more than five yards per carry, putting them both in the top six among running backs.

The big difference-maker in the game might be the weather. Green Bay is at home, it is going to be under 20 degrees with a good chance of snow, and that has them as the slight favorite to win.

2021 NFC Championship Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Outlook

Brady is the face of this team, but the Buccaneers are so much more than the Hall of Fame-bound quarterback. The Tampa Bay defense is excellent, finishing the season ranked sixth in the NFL and the best defense against the run.

The Bucs did lose five games this season, but all five were to playoff teams, and two of those losses were avenged with last week’s win in New Orleans. The last Tampa Bay loss was on November 29 to the Kansas City Chiefs, the host of the AFC Championship Game.

A note on the 51.5 over/under: The Bucs have scored at least 30 points in five straight games.

2021 NFC Championship Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers Outlook

Rodgers has been the face of the Packers since he took over for Brett Favre in 2008, and for the first time in his Hall of Fame career, his team is hosting the NFC Championship Game. He has been lights out in 2020 and is the heavy favorite to win another MVP. But there was one game this season where Rodgers looked awful – against the Buccaneers on October 18.

The Packers managed to score just 10 points against the Bucs in that game, and Rodgers failed to break 200 yards. It was the only game all season in which he was unable to throw a touchdown. But since that game, Rodgers hasn’t had a quarterback rating below 90, and Green Bay is averaging 32 points scored.

2021 NFC Championship Betting Preview2021 NFC Championship Betting Preview: Partner with Pay Per Head Software

The Packers are 3.5-point favorites, and the over/under is 51.5. The action on both those lines is coming. Now is the time for independent bookmakers to take advantage of Championship Sunday and become partners with a pay per head software provider.

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2021 NFC Championship Betting Preview: The Pick is In

The old cliché that “Defense Wins Championships” holds true for a reason. The tipping point for this game is the Buccaneers defense. Take the Buccaneers to advance to Super Bowl LV.

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WagerHome Blog2021 NFC Championship Betting Preview

Teams With Biggest Additions and Subtractions During NFL Free Agency

by WagerHome Blog on March 31, 2020

As much of the world remains on lockdown because of the coronavirus crisis, most of the sports world sits dark. But that does not mean that there isn’t anything to bet, or any major sports making news.

The NFL’s new league year kicked off two weeks ago, and several teams have gotten better, while some teams have gotten worse.

Biggest Additions

Arizona Cardinals

Kenyan Drake and Larry Fitzgerald are staying put, which is a big win for the Cardinals. But the coup de grace came when Arizona traded away David Johnson (expendable because of Drake) for one of the best wide receivers in football, DeAndre Hopkins.

Quarterback Kyler Murray now has all the weapons he needs to really show how good he can be.

Miami Dolphins

Loaded with draft capital and cap space, and sensing a change in the landscape of the AFC East, the Dolphins have been major buyers at the start of this offseason. Cornerback Byron Jones, linebacker Kyle Van Noy, and defensive end Shaq Lawson are the biggest names Miami has added.

The Dolphins also have three first-round draft picks and two in the second, so plenty more solid additions are on the way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Volume-wise the Bucs have been rather tame, as just one significant addition has been signed by Tampa Bay. But it’s the name of names, the biggest prize ever to hit free agency, five-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady.

NFL

One thing is certain – the Bucs will not see 30 interceptions from their quarterback next season. A tough NFC South just got that much tougher.

Biggest Subtractions

Houston Texans

Houston Texans fans don’t want to be reminded of it anymore, but they have been the biggest losers of any team so far. Not only did they send away their young quarterback’s favorite weapon in Hopkins, but they got almost no value in return.

The Vikings got a much better haul when they traded away wide receiver Stefon Diggs this offseason. And considering Houston doesn’t draft until the 57th pick, this offseason isn’t getting any better.

Los Angeles Rams

The 2018 NFC Champions will go into 2020 just a shell of their former selves. Gone are Todd Gurley, Clay Matthews, Dante Fowler, and Corey Littleton.

It’s hard to believe, but the Rams might actually be only the fourth-most talented team in their division following the slew of cap casualties. They also won’t draft until 52nd overall, so very little young and inexpensive help is on the way.

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WagerHome BlogTeams With Biggest Additions and Subtractions During NFL Free Agency