NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 5, 2022

The Bills are back in the driver’s seat in the AFC, and the Eagles have strapped themselves even tighter to the seat in the NFC. As the playoff picture begins to take shape, and some teams rise, and other teams fall, we have a great slate of games to wager for NFL Week 14.

New York Jets (+9) at Buffalo Bills

This is not a bet against Buffalo winning this NFL game. They are better than the Jets, and they are at home. But New York defensively matches up well with the Bills, as evidenced by their earlier win in New York, and they will keep this game close.

The Bills win, but they’ve only covered two of their last six-point spreads, and they won’t do it here, either.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Tennessee has lost two straight games, and a lot of bettors are jumping off the bandwagon. Don’t you join them. These two losses have come against the Bengals and Eagles – two teams at the height of their powers – and before that, the Titans had covered eight consecutive point spreads.

Trevor Lawrence struggled against a bad Detroit defense, and he will struggle on the road in Tennessee. Look for the Titans to win by six or seven points and cover this spread.

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

On December 27th, 1999, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was born. Five days later, at the Orange Bowl, Tom Brady played his final game at the University of Michigan before entering the NFL. On Sunday, they will be starting for two of the four first-place teams in the NFC.

Purdy has the good fortune of having better weapons around him, a better offensive line, and a much better defense, playing some of the best football in the NFL.

The 49ers lost their second-half shutout streak, but it was just a touchdown to a very good Miami offense. This is a bad Tampa Bay offense, and the better bet is on Purdy and the Niners to cover.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (OVER 52.0)

The Dolphins are coming off a strange loss. They averaged 6.8 yards per play for the game, but they were just 0-for-7 on third downs. It’s incredible yardage efficiency, undone by a terrible conversion rate that had them running 34 fewer plays than San Francisco, and scoring 16 fewer points.

L.A.’s defense is not good, and the Dolphins should get back on track. The Chargers should also find success downfield, making the OVER of 52.0 the best play of this game.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 14 Betting Picks

NFL Week 7 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on October 19, 2022

The Eagles are still unbeaten, the Bills are the deserved NFL favorite in the AFC, and the football being played in the Meadowlands is 100% for real.

The Jets are just the second team in NFL history to have a winning record through six games after being the underdog in all six games. And the Giants now have three double-digit comeback wins, which is tied for the most in their 97 seasons of existence.

What new delights lay in store for NFL fans as we move into Week 7?

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Washington Commanders

Carson Wentz is injured, putting the Commanders’ offense back in the hands of Taylor Heinicke. And it’s not a great offense in spite of the win at Chicago. Brian Robinson looks like the real deal running the ball, but that’s it.

The Packers are in need of a get-right NFL game, and Washington is the perfect fodder. Green Bay will get it together and win by at least a touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) at Carolina Panthers

The Buccaneers were big favorites last week, and they lost outright. But this is the Panthers, a team truly in disarray, and with an offense that threw more than 80% of their passes last week behind the line of scrimmage. It’s not really an offense at that rate.

Tom Brady and the Bucs aren’t playing great football, but they will beat a very bad Panthers team by at least two touchdowns. Carolina might not score a point in this one.

NFL

New York Giants (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Just say no to the disrespect to the Giants, at 5-1, and going to Jacksonville as the underdog. The Jags have had their moments, but they haven’t earned the right to be a favorite over a team playing some of the best football in the NFL.

This is a simple choice between believing in the Giants and taking the points or still doubting the Giants. We believe.

Take New York and the points, although you probably won’t need them. The Giants are a good bet to go 6-1.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at San Francisco 49ers

It’s possible the 49ers will get Nick Bosa and Trent Williams back in time for their game with the Chiefs. But the list of other injuries that the team is dealing with is hard to fully comprehend.

The 49ers are missing three cornerbacks, two defensive tackles, two other offensive tackles besides Williams, a pair of linebackers, and two defensive ends.

The Chiefs are a better team when all things are equal, and they are not equal going into this NFL game. The Chiefs will beat the short-handed 49ers by at least 10 points.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 7 Betting Picks

NFL Week 4 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 28, 2022

After three weeks, we are down to just two 3-0 NFL teams, the Eagles and Dolphins. And, of course, the Dolphins remained unbeaten because they handed the favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Buffalo Bills, their first loss of the season.

Just another week of the greatest reality show on earth, and we get them every week for the next four months.

Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints

The Vikings and Saints, two Jekyll and Hyde teams, play just down the road from the offices of Dr. Henry Jekyll in London.

We thought the Saints were good, but they just gave the Carolina Panthers their first win of the season. We think the Vikings are good and other than a loss at Philadelphia, they have been.

It’s a national broadcast, but it isn’t in prime time, so we’re going to go with Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense to cover the field goal spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

The Eagles are blowing teams out, and if this was a month ago, we might think that the 6.5-point spread was an easy cover for Jalen Hurts and the best team in the NFC.

But the Jags have won two straight, including their first road win since 2019, and in each of those wins, they were underdogs.

We’re not going to predict a Jags win, but at almost a touchdown, we like the Jags to cover this NFL spread. Until bookmakers start giving Jacksonville the respect they’ve earned, keep riding them to wins.

NFL

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (Over 51.5)

The Bills’ offense managed just 17 points last week, but they gained 497 yards. In comparison, when the Ravens gave up 42 points to Miami, they allowed 547 yards. Even against the struggling Patriots offense, Baltimore allowed 447 yards and 26 points.

It’s Josh Allen, at the top of his game, vs. Lamar Jackson, who is at the top of his game, and while the Bills (-3) is a tough call, going OVER 51.5 feels like a really solid NFL play.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

The 49ers always play the Rams tough, but did you see Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday against the Broncos? Denver has a very good defense, but you can see why general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan tried to move on from Jimmy G this NFL season.

The Rams have yet to put it together for one complete game, but that game is coming. And if you can get the Rams as underdogs against a team that has failed to break 10 points in two of three NFL games, you do it. Take L.A. and the points.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 4 Betting Picks

NFL Week 1 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 8, 2022

The NFL is back this weekend, and that means the absolute, very best sports betting is also back, with 14 games on Sunday and a 15th coming Monday night in Seattle.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Even with Tom Brady, the Patriots had issues playing in Miami, and now the Dolphins have one of the fastest offenses in football.

This bet is as much pro-Miami as it is anti an offense with co-offensive coordinators who have no experience ever working as offensive coordinators. The two-headed offensive monster of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge sounds like a disaster in the making, and on Sunday, the Dolphins will take full advantage.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

This is the game that ended the 2021 regular season, and it was a doozy, with the overtime winner going to the playoffs (the Raiders) and the loser (the Chargers) going home.

Justin Herbert lit up the scoreboard that night, and he will do it again. But the Raiders now have Davante Adams, L.A. addition J.C. Jackson is not going to play, and with the superior Daniel Carlson as their kicker, this is going to be a field goal game.

Take Las Vegas and the points, and consider the Raiders on the moneyline too.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Chicago Bears

The Bears have one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and even with a quarterback that is largely an unknown, the 49ers have one of the best rosters in the NFL.

Don’t be too worried about Trey Lance. This 49ers team is going to be good, and against a team like Chicago, who is expected to get a top-five draft pick next year, the 49ers will look great. This is going to be an easy win for San Francisco, and they will cover the touchdown spread.

NFL

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (+6.5)

Seattle traded its franchise quarterback to Denver in the offseason, and just last week, the Broncos signed him to a huge contract extension that will keep him in the Mile High City for the next seven years.

No question that Russell Wilson wants to win this game more than any other on the schedule, but this Seahawks roster is better than many people are giving it credit for. The Broncos are the better team, but it will be an emotional night at home, and the Seattle defense will keep the final score to less than a touchdown.

Denver wins, but Seattle covers.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 1 Betting Picks

NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 17, 2022

Despite it being the NFL preseason, and with so many starters out, the opening full week of NFL football turned in some great performances, great games, and great opportunities to make money wagering.

NFL preseason Week 2 should be more of the same, but better, as each team begins to narrow in on its best players, and they begin to open the playbook just a little more.

Chicago Bears (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks – Thursday

There is disappointment in Seattle, as the quarterback competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock takes a pause for at least one week, with Lock out due to a COVID-19 positive test.

So that means that instead of seeing Lock as the starter against the Bears – Smith was the starter in Week 1 – we’re getting more Smith, followed by Jacob Eason.

That gives the edge to the Bears and Justin Fields, who won at the end in Week 1 at home and are a much better bet to cover the spread late against Eason, who has no chance at regular season playing time in Seattle.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (+2) – Friday

Beware the home underdog. As was mentioned in this space before last week’s games, in the preseason, the underdog wins outright and against the spread at a much higher rate than in the regular NFL season, and this is especially true of home underdogs.

The Panthers will trot out two former starting quarterbacks to play in this game, with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold engaged in two more weeks of quarterback competition. Beyond Mac Jones, the Patriots have Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe, who should never see the field in New England in the regular season.

But it’s time for the Patriots to get a win, and beating the Panthers at home would be a good start.

NFL

San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) at Minnesota Vikings

One of the big winners from Week 1 of the preseason was the 49ers. Trey Lance displayed the arm that had them moving up to take him in the 2021 draft, and it has become clear that he is a top candidate to be a breakout star in 2022.

We’re buying all of the Lance stock we can get, and especially when he and the Niners are more than a field goal underdog in the NFL preseason.

San Francisco won 28-21 in Week 1, and that was with 25 starters resting. So there is no reason to think that they can’t put up a similar performance against the Vikings, who have Kirk Cousins coming off a bout with COVID.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Preview

NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on August 10, 2022

If you are an experienced NFL bettor, you know the disclaimer that follows. This is the NFL preseason.

There used to be a time when starters would actually play as much as a full quarter of football, or even more. Those days, however, are over. Most of the veteran stars will not see the field in this first week of full preseason play, and perhaps even any of the preseason.

That makes it tough to make accurate picks, which is both good and bad. Bad, because a lot of wagers are just guesses in the NFL preseason. But good, in that the lines bookmakers post are also largely guesses, and that makes for some exploitable point spreads.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – Thursday

It is the most bizarre streak in the history of the NFL. The Ravens have won 20 consecutive NFL preseason football games, and under head coach John Harbaugh they are 12-1 against the spread in the opening week of the preseason.

It’s nuts, winning that many consecutive games you aren’t really even trying to win. But at this point, the Ravens are trying to win, hoping to keep the streak alive. It will be fun to watch Malik Willis play for the Titans in this one but bet on the Ravens to cover the spread.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (+1.5) – Friday

The pick of the Ravens aside, it generally is more profitable to pick underdogs in the preseason. Underdogs have covered the spread 54.2% of the time over the previous two seasons.

Here we have a home dog, and one who is the subject of HBO’s Hard Knocks, which makes us like the Lions even more. Last year’s Hard Knocks team was the Indianapolis Colts, and they won all three of their NFL preseason games.

Go with home dog Lions to cover.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-1) – Friday

The 49ers, with a new young quarterback, will play Trey Lance in their first and third preseason games. They are also expected to play several other starters along with Lance.

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t appeared in an NFL preseason game since 2018, and he won’t be in the field on Friday in San Francisco. For that reason, plus the Packers having to travel, we like the 49ers to cover this nominal point spread.

NFL Preseason

Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (Under 30) – Saturday

Rams coach Sean McVay and Chargers coach Brandon Staley hate the NFL preseason. Their only goal in preseason games is to get them over as quickly as possible. In 2021 the Rams scored 6, 16, and 12 points. The Chargers scored 13, 10, and 0. And when they played head-to-head, the final score was 13-6.

It would be a shock if these teams go over 30 total points. For these two teams, hammer that under.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks

AFC and NFC Championship Betting Previews

by WagerHome Blog on January 26, 2022

We are back with another NFL betting preview! There is absolutely no way that this weekend can match the excitement of the Divisional Round. Every single one of the four games ended with a walk-off win.

But as a consolation to not being the best weekend of football, this is the most important weekend of the season, with the winners on Sunday headed to Super Bowl LVI. Check out our AFC and NFC Championship betting previews below!

AFC Championship Betting Preview – Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

Both of these quarterbacks need the week off. Joe Burrow, in his last-second win over the Titans, was sacked nine times. He needs a week in a hot tub before he plays the Chiefs.

For Patrick Mahomes, he needs the week to return his heart rate back to normal. In the final two minutes and overtime of his last-second win over the Bills, there were 31 points scored, four lead changes, and Mahomes himself threw for 177 yards after the two-minute warning.

So can the Bengals, who have scored a total of 47 points in their two playoff games, keep up with the Chiefs, who have scored a total of 84 points in their two playoff games?

Fortunately, we don’t have to wonder. These teams played one another less than four weeks ago, and the Bengals did keep pace with Kansas City, actually winning 34-31 on a final-play field goal. You might remember that Ja’Marr Chase was incredible, going for 266 yards, and he has gone over 100 yards in each round of the playoffs.

Yes, the Bengals can keep pace with the Chiefs, and with a large seven-point spread, they will cover.

NFC Championship Betting Preview – San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

This is another rematch from the regular season and another one where the visiting underdog was the winner the first time around. For the 49ers, it was actually two wins against the Rams this season, and if you want to go back even further, they’ve now won six-straight games against their Southern California rivals.

Because of that Week 18 win in Los Angeles that put San Francisco into the postseason, they have a longer winning streak. But heading into the NFC Championship, at least on the offensive side of the ball, they have the most question marks.

Jimmy Garoppolo did not play well against the Cowboys, and he did not play well against the Packers. Jimmy G has 303 yards passing, no touchdowns, and two interceptions in the playoffs, but amazingly the 49ers have been winning.

Matthew Stafford is playing great in L.A., with 568 yards and four touchdowns in the playoffs, and the Rams offense is clicking in a way that will make it very tough for the 49ers on Sunday. Not only does L.A. win the game, but they also win it by at least a touchdown and cover this spread.

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WagerHome BlogAFC and NFC Championship Betting Previews

NFL Opening Round Playoff Picks

by WagerHome Blog on January 13, 2022

NFL Wild card weekend is here, and the only thing as good as the football from Saturday through Monday night, is the betting.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)

The Bengals haven’t won a playoff game in 31 years, losing eight straight playoff games since beating the Houston Oilers 41-14. That eight-game losing streak began with a 20-10 loss to the Raiders, and the streak will end with a win over the Raiders by at least a touchdown.

For the Raiders, this will be their third straight postseason loss.

New England Patriots (+4) at Buffalo Bills

For the third time in just over a month, the Patriots and Bills meet, and that kind of familiarity favors the experience of Bill Belichick.

The Bills offense has struggled since they played the Patriots in Week 16. Josh Allen threw three interceptions in Week 17 and completed just 53 percent of his passes in Week 18.

The Bills may still win, but the Patriots’ defense keeps it to within a field goal.

Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Except for two games with the Panthers, the Bucs haven’t looked great this last month. There was the near-miss against the Jets, a shut out to the Saints, and a trainer’s room full of injuries.

NFL Opening Round Playoff PicksTom Brady is still Tom Brady, but the 109 yards given up on the ground to Josh Allen in Week 14 is a sign that the top rusher among NFL quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts, and the top-ranked rushing team, the Eagles, will keep this game close.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

A month ago, it was said that if the Cowboys re-discovered their offense, they were going to be really tough to beat in the postseason. Two 50-burgers in the last three weeks, and this offense, coupled with a defense that ranks seventh in points allowed, should roll at home.

The Niners earned their way into the playoffs, but they will be bounced by more than a touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5)

In 19 playoff games, we have seen a point spread as high as 13 points. The favored team is 18-1 overall (the one loss was by the Rams to the Patriots in the Super Bowl), and against the spread, the favored team is 11-7-1.

The Steelers lost to Kansas City, 36-10, three weeks ago, and that was without Travis Kelce. He’s playing, and the Chiefs win this game easily.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4)

The Cardinals did get the win in Dallas in Week 17, but they’ve lost the other four of their final fives games and too bad teams in Detroit and Seattle. The Rams backed into the division championship with their own loss in Week 18 but have enough firepower to win this game by a touchdown.

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NFL Week 17 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 30, 2021

Two weeks remain in the NFL regular season, and there are only two weeks left of a full sixteen games for us to bet on each week. As the teams jockey for final playoff positioning, these are the four games you should give an extra look at in NFL Week 17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5) at New York Jets

The only fear here is that the Bucs will get up by so much that they’ll take their foot off the gas, and the Jets will get a late score to stay inside two touchdowns.

That fear, however, is small. Tom Brady loves playing the Jets, and here his competitive nature will serve you well. He wants a Super Bowl, but he also wants another MVP award, and that will lead him to pour it on his old division rival.

The Tom Brady show will have Tampa Bay winning this game by at least 17 points.

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) Baltimore Ravens

These are two teams heading in completely opposite directions.

The Rams have won four straight games, covered all four, and have clinched a playoff berth. L.A.’s next goal is to secure the NFC West title.

The Ravens have lost four straight, gone 2-2 ATS, and have completely fallen out of the playoff picture. And another week goes by, and another cornerback does down with an injury.

The Ravens simply don’t have enough left to win this game and save their season. The Rams win, and they win by at least a touchdown.

Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

The Raiders defense is not equipped to handle Jonathan Taylor. He will get his yards, and the Colts will get their points. But even when Taylor is at his best, those points from the offense don’t get too high.

Taylor was great against the Cardinals, and Indy scored 22. He ran for 170 against the Patriots, and their final tally was 27.

NFL Week 17 Betting Picks

Derek Carr is having a good season, and he expects to have Darren Waller back, and that will make a huge difference for the Raiders in keeping this game close. The Colts will still win, but Las Vegas only loses by a field goal.

Houston Texans (+13) at San Francisco 49ers

Is an injured Jimmy Garoppolo better than a still very raw Trey Lance?

After Garoppolo tore a ligament in his thumb last Thursday, the effects were obvious. He struggled to grip the football and throw it, and most doctors agree that he won’t be able to play this week or even again this season. However, the 49ers haven’t ruled him out just yet.

Regardless, the Texans are playing spirited football and covered two weeks in a row, and with a big 13-point spread against the 49ers, they will cover for a third straight week.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 17 Betting Picks

NFL Week 12 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on November 24, 2021

It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means lots and lots of food, lots and lots of football, and conversations around the dinner table about which are the best bets to place on a long NFL weekend. Below are some of our best NFL Week 12 betting picks!

Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars

You may not be targeting the Falcons and Jaguars as one of the matchups you want to watch. Fair enough, the two teams have combined for some really bad football. But this is a game that you’ll want to bet.

As bad as the Falcons have looked at times – 43-3 vs. Dallas and 25-0 vs. New England – there are times when the Falcons have looked good. They have four wins, including an impressive win on the road at New Orleans. And they have been beating teams like the Jags, with wins over the Giants, Jets, and Dolphins.

Watching these two teams may not be on your weekend viewing schedule. But the Falcons are a good bet to win on the road in Jacksonville, and this game should be on your betting slip.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5.5)

The Patriots have a rookie quarterback and a collection of no-name wide receivers. But they have a coach by the name of Bill Belichick and one of the best defenses in football.

NFL Week 12 Betting Picks

A win on Sunday, and incredibly, the Patriots could find themselves as the top seed in the AFC. Just a few weeks ago, the Bills were going to win the AFC East. Now the Pats are in the first place, and they have the longest winning streak in the NFL at five games.

Even before the Titans lost to Houston, there were concerns about Tennessee and its offense. Those concerns become even more amplified against a defense like New England’s and a coach like Belichick. Tennessee’s fall without Derrick Henry continues on Sunday, the Patriots win streak rolls on, and they win by more than a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are good again, which is fun. They’ve won three of four games, climbed back into the playoff race, rookie Elijah Mitchell is turning into a star, and Deebo Samuel is having a season for the ages.

The problem this week for the 49ers is that they face a team that has been good all season long, even if the record hasn’t cooperated. Like San Francisco, Minnesota is 5-5, but they are three field goals away from being 8-2.

Last week the game-winning field goal finally went in their favor, and they beat Green Bay. This week will be another close game and another win for the Vikings.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 12 Betting Picks