San Francisco 49ers Archives

With No Unbeatens Left, NFL Super Bowl Odds Shift

by WagerHome Blog on October 17, 2023

It’s not just that the NFL’s last two remaining unbeaten teams lost on Sunday. It’s how they lost, and who they lost to.

The San Francisco 49ers were seen as the class of the league this NFL season, steamrolling their opponents, including their biggest NFL game of the year, a 42-10 Week 5 win over the Cowboys. But this week, facing a backup quarterback in P.J. Walker, the Niners lost 19-17 and managed just 215 total yards.

The Eagles hadn’t been winning by the same margins as the 49ers, but they were winning with the same frequency. But then, on Sunday, they turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions by Jalen Hurts, and they lost to the Jets, 20-14.

Who remains worthy of your Super Bowl bet?

Current Odds to Win NFL Super Bowl LVIII

Kansas City Chiefs (+450)
San Francisco 49ers (+450)
Philadelphia Eagles (+750)
Buffalo Bills (+800)
Miami Dolphins (+1000)
Dallas Cowboys (+1100)
Detroit Lions (+1400)
Baltimore Ravens (+1600)

The Kansas City Chiefs now have the longest winning streak in the NFL at five games. They aren’t blowing people out offensively, but they are playing much better defense than in years past, and their margin for victory is actually higher than last year.

The 49ers are still a great team, and a bad game against really good defense doesn’t change that. And one bad game from Brock Purdy doesn’t undo all of the good games he’s played in San Francisco.

The Buffalo Bills remain as the fourth betting favorite, but they were just one yard away from losing to the hapless Giants at home, following up on their poor performance in London. This feels like an overpay, considering how poorly they have played the last two weeks.

The Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL, and even as they begin to take some nicks – rookie running back De’Von Achane is on IR – their explosiveness hasn’t changed. They scored the final 42 points in their blowout win over the Panthers this week.

The Detroit Lions at +1400 should feel disrespected. They beat the Chiefs straight up, albeit against a Chiefs team missing two All-Pros. But all of their other wins have come by double-digits, including this week’s 20-6 easy victory on the road at Tampa Bay. Detroit’s lone loss came in overtime against a good Seattle team.

The Lions have seen improving odds each week, thanks to their 5-1 record, but both the Bills and Cowboys have more losses than the Lions and really bad losses at that.

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Best Bets for NFL Week 6

by WagerHome Blog on October 12, 2023

At this point in the season, there is little doubt that the San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL. They are great on both sides of the ball and beating opponents by the largest margin in the league.

The Philadelphia Eagles are also 5-0, and they will have something to say about the invincibility of the 49ers when the two teams meet the first week of December. Until then, we’ll see if both of them can remain perfect.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Cleveland Browns

Normally, when the coach of a great NFL team tries to pump up an inferior opponent before they play on Sunday, we ignore it. But 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has a point when he looks ahead to their game in Cleveland, and calls the Browns, “the biggest challenge so far.”

The Browns’ defense is very good, and by a number of traditional and advanced metrics, they rank first or second. They do indeed present a problem for the 49ers, who have found the going pretty easy on offense through five weeks.

The problem for the Browns is their offense, which is not good. And Deshaun Watson is uncertain to play, leaving the starting quarterback job to P.J. Walker. Walker made five starts last year for the Panthers, and he was 2-3.

The 49ers offense won’t show out as much in this game, but covering the spread is still the best bet.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Jets

The Eagles also face a really good defense as they look to stay perfect on the season. The Jets also have a suspect offense. However, Breece Hall has emerged as a true star this season, and there are no signs of the ACL tear that ended his rookie NFL season in 2022.

Because of their ability to run the ball and play good defense, the Jets will keep this game close in the beginning. But the Eagles are just too good along both the offensive and defensive lines, and they will eventually wear down the Jets and cover this spread late in the NFL game.

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Cowboys had a bad game last week at San Francisco, but they haven’t had two bad NFL games in a row in more than two years. This defense is still very good and easily the best defense faced this year by the Chargers.

L.A. is hard to trust, with bad losses to the Titans and Dolphins and near-misses against the Vikings and Raiders. The Cowboys fans will fill up SoFi Stadium, and they will be treated to a spread–covering win.

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Week 2 NFL Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 14, 2023

In NFL Week 1, the Detroit Lions got the win that justified their preseason hype. The San Francisco 49ers looked like the best team in the NFL, with the Dallas Cowboys right behind them. While the Seattle Seahawks underperformed massively, as did the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills.

It was a wild week in the greatest reality show on earth, and Week 2 promises more of the same.

NFL Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (+9) at Buffalo Bills

Where is the respect for the Raiders? They were four-point underdogs last week in Denver, and Las Vegas won the NFL game outright by stretching out of their time of possession and limiting the number of times the Broncos had the ball.

Now they are nine-point underdogs at b, a team that just lost to a reeling Jets team. If ever there was a win there for the taking, it was the Bills at the Jets, and they couldn’t get it done. Buffalo will probably get the win this week, but the spread is much too big. Look for the Raiders to cover.

NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Another underdog worth taking this week is the Baltimore Ravens. They covered the spread at home in Week 1, and now they get their top rival for the AFC North crown, a Bengals team that looked terrible at Cleveland.

Joe Burrow won’t be nearly as bad as he was last week, but the offensive line is a real concern. Instead of the new and improved line we were promised, they were a major liability. Baltimore will be able to exploit that and keep this game close.

At 2.5 points, you might want to avoid this game, but when the Ravens are getting more than a field goal, take it.

NFL Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams had an excellent showing in their Week 1 win at Seattle, and the offensive explosion came without Cooper Kupp. Turns out Matthew Stafford is still a very good quarterback, and Sean McVay is a very good NFL coach.

But, did you see the 49ers in Pittsburgh? They dominated the Steelers on both sides of the ball, and there is no reason to think that they can’t do the same at SoFi Stadium this weekend. And when you consider that the 49ers have covered each of the last seven games against their rival Rams, this bet becomes obvious.

The Rams are better than we thought, but they are still a young team that will struggle against the completeness of the 49ers. San Francisco wins this game and covers the spread.

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NFL Preseason Week 1 Kicks Off

by WagerHome Blog on August 10, 2023

Last week’s NFL Hall of Fame Game was just a teaser. An amuse-bouche, if you will. The tiniest of appetizers to get us ready for the smorgasbord of football to come, the 2023 regular season.

That makes this weekend a full trip to the salad bar with all the fixings. We get 16 NFL preseason games, which amounts to 960 minutes of actual game time over the course of the weekend.

Thursday through Sunday is not a national holiday, but it should be.

Top NFL Games of the Weekend

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Following two games on Thursday, our Friday of preseason football begins with the Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals and Jordan Love taking the quarterback reins in Green Bay.

This will be his first start as QB1, and even though you should never get too carried away regarding preseason performances, Packers fans are going to want to be wowed.

New York Giants (-3) at Detroit Lions

There is no sneaking up on anyone this year for either of these teams. The Giants are coming off a playoff berth, and the Lions are the preseason betting favorite to win the NFC North. How will both teams respond with the higher expectations?

We also get to see how the Giants plan to use new tight end Darren Waller and how the Lions are going to feature first-round draft pick Jahmyr Gibbs. All reports out of camp say that Gibbs is the real deal, and if Detroit does make it back to the playoffs, he will be a big reason why.

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

We’re not expected to see Aaron Rodgers on Saturday in Carolina, but we will get our first look at the No. 1 overall pick, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young.

There will be growing pains. There will be interceptions. There will be bad decisions. A lot. But head coach Frank Reich loves his new quarterback, and the growth Young experiences from this weekend through the end of the season will be worth watching.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

We probably won’t see much of Jimmy Garoppolo this preseason, with the Raiders expected to be cautious with a previously injured foot. But we should see plenty of Trey Lance for the 49ers as Kyle Shanahan and company try to figure out what kind of future he has in San Francisco.

We’ll also see some Sam Darnold and maybe some Brock Purdy, although that is more of a long shot. Whoever plays for San Francisco, everyone will be watching. It’s been a long time since one of the Super Bowl favorites was so unsettled at quarterback.

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NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 22, 2022

We went from one team with a clinched playoff berth, to six. We had the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL, and the Bills became a playoff team in the most appropriate possible setting – the snow.

The Jaguars are for real, so are the Lions, and the Patriots suffered a loss we will be talking about for decades.

How can NFL Week 16 possibly top that?

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

It’s hard to know what to make of a division-clinching NFL game that saw the Vikings fall behind 33-0 at halftime, only to have them storm back to win 39-36. The truth is, probably not much. They are neither of those teams and instead somewhere in the middle. And that middle, especially at home, is good enough to beat the Giants by more than a field goal.

New York is probably going to end up in the NFL playoffs, but don’t trust them this week. Give the points and take the Vikings.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

Do not adjust your settings. The Detroit Lions are a good team and a good bet to make the playoffs. They are not in the playoff picture just yet, still a half-game back of the Commanders for the seventh spot. But the Lions have a favorable schedule, beginning with this game at Carolina.

The Lions have won six of their last seven, covering the spread in all seven NFL games, and this week they will make it eight in a row.

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

The 49ers are the champions of the NFC West, and the No. 2 seed in the NFC is still in sight. It may be that it doesn’t really matter who plays quarterback for this team. Jimmy Garoppolo or Brock Purdy, the team hasn’t changed. Outside of Philadelphia, they have been the most consistently good team in the conference.

Washington is currently a playoff team, but they are nowhere close to San Francisco. The 49ers will win this game and cover the spread for the sixth straight NFL game.

Philadelphia Eagles (+6) at Dallas Cowboys

A couple of weeks ago, this was going to be the game of the year. Certainly, it was going to be the game of the year in the NFC East. But the Cowboys’ hopes for the division are holding on by a fingernail after they lost last week to Jacksonville, and now we’re not sure if Jalen Hurts will be able to play.

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni isn’t ruling Hurts out, but he is preparing Gardner Minshew just in case. And even if Minshew starts, we still like the Eagles to cover.

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NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 5, 2022

The Bills are back in the driver’s seat in the AFC, and the Eagles have strapped themselves even tighter to the seat in the NFC. As the playoff picture begins to take shape, and some teams rise, and other teams fall, we have a great slate of games to wager for NFL Week 14.

New York Jets (+9) at Buffalo Bills

This is not a bet against Buffalo winning this NFL game. They are better than the Jets, and they are at home. But New York defensively matches up well with the Bills, as evidenced by their earlier win in New York, and they will keep this game close.

The Bills win, but they’ve only covered two of their last six-point spreads, and they won’t do it here, either.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Tennessee has lost two straight games, and a lot of bettors are jumping off the bandwagon. Don’t you join them. These two losses have come against the Bengals and Eagles – two teams at the height of their powers – and before that, the Titans had covered eight consecutive point spreads.

Trevor Lawrence struggled against a bad Detroit defense, and he will struggle on the road in Tennessee. Look for the Titans to win by six or seven points and cover this spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

On December 27th, 1999, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was born. Five days later, at the Orange Bowl, Tom Brady played his final game at the University of Michigan before entering the NFL. On Sunday, they will be starting for two of the four first-place teams in the NFC.

Purdy has the good fortune of having better weapons around him, a better offensive line, and a much better defense, playing some of the best football in the NFL.

The 49ers lost their second-half shutout streak, but it was just a touchdown to a very good Miami offense. This is a bad Tampa Bay offense, and the better bet is on Purdy and the Niners to cover.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (OVER 52.0)

The Dolphins are coming off a strange loss. They averaged 6.8 yards per play for the game, but they were just 0-for-7 on third downs. It’s incredible yardage efficiency, undone by a terrible conversion rate that had them running 34 fewer plays than San Francisco, and scoring 16 fewer points.

L.A.’s defense is not good, and the Dolphins should get back on track. The Chargers should also find success downfield, making the OVER of 52.0 the best play of this game.

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NFL Week 7 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on October 19, 2022

The Eagles are still unbeaten, the Bills are the deserved NFL favorite in the AFC, and the football being played in the Meadowlands is 100% for real.

The Jets are just the second team in NFL history to have a winning record through six games after being the underdog in all six games. And the Giants now have three double-digit comeback wins, which is tied for the most in their 97 seasons of existence.

What new delights lay in store for NFL fans as we move into Week 7?

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Washington Commanders

Carson Wentz is injured, putting the Commanders’ offense back in the hands of Taylor Heinicke. And it’s not a great offense in spite of the win at Chicago. Brian Robinson looks like the real deal running the ball, but that’s it.

The Packers are in need of a get-right NFL game, and Washington is the perfect fodder. Green Bay will get it together and win by at least a touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) at Carolina Panthers

The Buccaneers were big favorites last week, and they lost outright. But this is the Panthers, a team truly in disarray, and with an offense that threw more than 80% of their passes last week behind the line of scrimmage. It’s not really an offense at that rate.

Tom Brady and the Bucs aren’t playing great football, but they will beat a very bad Panthers team by at least two touchdowns. Carolina might not score a point in this one.

New York Giants (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Just say no to the disrespect to the Giants, at 5-1, and going to Jacksonville as the underdog. The Jags have had their moments, but they haven’t earned the right to be a favorite over a team playing some of the best football in the NFL.

This is a simple choice between believing in the Giants and taking the points or still doubting the Giants. We believe.

Take New York and the points, although you probably won’t need them. The Giants are a good bet to go 6-1.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at San Francisco 49ers

It’s possible the 49ers will get Nick Bosa and Trent Williams back in time for their game with the Chiefs. But the list of other injuries that the team is dealing with is hard to fully comprehend.

The 49ers are missing three cornerbacks, two defensive tackles, two other offensive tackles besides Williams, a pair of linebackers, and two defensive ends.

The Chiefs are a better team when all things are equal, and they are not equal going into this NFL game. The Chiefs will beat the short-handed 49ers by at least 10 points.

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NFL Week 4 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 28, 2022

After three weeks, we are down to just two 3-0 NFL teams, the Eagles and Dolphins. And, of course, the Dolphins remained unbeaten because they handed the favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Buffalo Bills, their first loss of the season.

Just another week of the greatest reality show on earth, and we get them every week for the next four months.

Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints

The Vikings and Saints, two Jekyll and Hyde teams, play just down the road from the offices of Dr. Henry Jekyll in London.

We thought the Saints were good, but they just gave the Carolina Panthers their first win of the season. We think the Vikings are good and other than a loss at Philadelphia, they have been.

It’s a national broadcast, but it isn’t in prime time, so we’re going to go with Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense to cover the field goal spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

The Eagles are blowing teams out, and if this was a month ago, we might think that the 6.5-point spread was an easy cover for Jalen Hurts and the best team in the NFC.

But the Jags have won two straight, including their first road win since 2019, and in each of those wins, they were underdogs.

We’re not going to predict a Jags win, but at almost a touchdown, we like the Jags to cover this NFL spread. Until bookmakers start giving Jacksonville the respect they’ve earned, keep riding them to wins.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (Over 51.5)

The Bills’ offense managed just 17 points last week, but they gained 497 yards. In comparison, when the Ravens gave up 42 points to Miami, they allowed 547 yards. Even against the struggling Patriots offense, Baltimore allowed 447 yards and 26 points.

It’s Josh Allen, at the top of his game, vs. Lamar Jackson, who is at the top of his game, and while the Bills (-3) is a tough call, going OVER 51.5 feels like a really solid NFL play.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

The 49ers always play the Rams tough, but did you see Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday against the Broncos? Denver has a very good defense, but you can see why general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan tried to move on from Jimmy G this NFL season.

The Rams have yet to put it together for one complete game, but that game is coming. And if you can get the Rams as underdogs against a team that has failed to break 10 points in two of three NFL games, you do it. Take L.A. and the points.

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NFL Week 1 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on September 8, 2022

The NFL is back this weekend, and that means the absolute, very best sports betting is also back, with 14 games on Sunday and a 15th coming Monday night in Seattle.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Even with Tom Brady, the Patriots had issues playing in Miami, and now the Dolphins have one of the fastest offenses in football.

This bet is as much pro-Miami as it is anti an offense with co-offensive coordinators who have no experience ever working as offensive coordinators. The two-headed offensive monster of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge sounds like a disaster in the making, and on Sunday, the Dolphins will take full advantage.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

This is the game that ended the 2021 regular season, and it was a doozy, with the overtime winner going to the playoffs (the Raiders) and the loser (the Chargers) going home.

Justin Herbert lit up the scoreboard that night, and he will do it again. But the Raiders now have Davante Adams, L.A. addition J.C. Jackson is not going to play, and with the superior Daniel Carlson as their kicker, this is going to be a field goal game.

Take Las Vegas and the points, and consider the Raiders on the moneyline too.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Chicago Bears

The Bears have one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and even with a quarterback that is largely an unknown, the 49ers have one of the best rosters in the NFL.

Don’t be too worried about Trey Lance. This 49ers team is going to be good, and against a team like Chicago, who is expected to get a top-five draft pick next year, the 49ers will look great. This is going to be an easy win for San Francisco, and they will cover the touchdown spread.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (+6.5)

Seattle traded its franchise quarterback to Denver in the offseason, and just last week, the Broncos signed him to a huge contract extension that will keep him in the Mile High City for the next seven years.

No question that Russell Wilson wants to win this game more than any other on the schedule, but this Seahawks roster is better than many people are giving it credit for. The Broncos are the better team, but it will be an emotional night at home, and the Seattle defense will keep the final score to less than a touchdown.

Denver wins, but Seattle covers.

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NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 17, 2022

Despite it being the NFL preseason, and with so many starters out, the opening full week of NFL football turned in some great performances, great games, and great opportunities to make money wagering.

NFL preseason Week 2 should be more of the same, but better, as each team begins to narrow in on its best players, and they begin to open the playbook just a little more.

Chicago Bears (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks – Thursday

There is disappointment in Seattle, as the quarterback competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock takes a pause for at least one week, with Lock out due to a COVID-19 positive test.

So that means that instead of seeing Lock as the starter against the Bears – Smith was the starter in Week 1 – we’re getting more Smith, followed by Jacob Eason.

That gives the edge to the Bears and Justin Fields, who won at the end in Week 1 at home and are a much better bet to cover the spread late against Eason, who has no chance at regular season playing time in Seattle.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (+2) – Friday

Beware the home underdog. As was mentioned in this space before last week’s games, in the preseason, the underdog wins outright and against the spread at a much higher rate than in the regular NFL season, and this is especially true of home underdogs.

The Panthers will trot out two former starting quarterbacks to play in this game, with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold engaged in two more weeks of quarterback competition. Beyond Mac Jones, the Patriots have Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe, who should never see the field in New England in the regular season.

But it’s time for the Patriots to get a win, and beating the Panthers at home would be a good start.

San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) at Minnesota Vikings

One of the big winners from Week 1 of the preseason was the 49ers. Trey Lance displayed the arm that had them moving up to take him in the 2021 draft, and it has become clear that he is a top candidate to be a breakout star in 2022.

We’re buying all of the Lance stock we can get, and especially when he and the Niners are more than a field goal underdog in the NFL preseason.

San Francisco won 28-21 in Week 1, and that was with 25 starters resting. So there is no reason to think that they can’t put up a similar performance against the Vikings, who have Kirk Cousins coming off a bout with COVID.

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Current Odds to Win NFL Super Bowl LVIII

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San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Cleveland Browns

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Jets

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers

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NFL Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (+9) at Buffalo Bills

NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

NFL Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams

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Top NFL Games of the Weekend

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

New York Giants (-3) at Detroit Lions

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

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New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Philadelphia Eagles (+6) at Dallas Cowboys

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New York Jets (+9) at Buffalo Bills

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (OVER 52.0)

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Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Washington Commanders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) at Carolina Panthers

New York Giants (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at San Francisco 49ers

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Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (Over 51.5)

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Chicago Bears

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (+6.5)

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Chicago Bears (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks – Thursday

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (+2) – Friday

San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) at Minnesota Vikings

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