With No Unbeatens Left, NFL Super Bowl Odds Shift

by WagerHome Blog on October 17, 2023

It’s not just that the NFL’s last two remaining unbeaten teams lost on Sunday. It’s how they lost, and who they lost to.

The San Francisco 49ers were seen as the class of the league this NFL season, steamrolling their opponents, including their biggest NFL game of the year, a 42-10 Week 5 win over the Cowboys. But this week, facing a backup quarterback in P.J. Walker, the Niners lost 19-17 and managed just 215 total yards.

The Eagles hadn’t been winning by the same margins as the 49ers, but they were winning with the same frequency. But then, on Sunday, they turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions by Jalen Hurts, and they lost to the Jets, 20-14.

Who remains worthy of your Super Bowl bet?

Current Odds to Win NFL Super Bowl LVIII

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+450)
  • San Francisco 49ers (+450)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+750)
  • Buffalo Bills (+800)
  • Miami Dolphins (+1000)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+1100)
  • Detroit Lions (+1400)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+1600)

The Kansas City Chiefs now have the longest winning streak in the NFL at five games. They aren’t blowing people out offensively, but they are playing much better defense than in years past, and their margin for victory is actually higher than last year.

The 49ers are still a great team, and a bad game against really good defense doesn’t change that. And one bad game from Brock Purdy doesn’t undo all of the good games he’s played in San Francisco.

The Buffalo Bills remain as the fourth betting favorite, but they were just one yard away from losing to the hapless Giants at home, following up on their poor performance in London. This feels like an overpay, considering how poorly they have played the last two weeks.


The Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL, and even as they begin to take some nicks – rookie running back De’Von Achane is on IR – their explosiveness hasn’t changed. They scored the final 42 points in their blowout win over the Panthers this week.

The Detroit Lions at +1400 should feel disrespected. They beat the Chiefs straight up, albeit against a Chiefs team missing two All-Pros. But all of their other wins have come by double-digits, including this week’s 20-6 easy victory on the road at Tampa Bay. Detroit’s lone loss came in overtime against a good Seattle team.

The Lions have seen improving odds each week, thanks to their 5-1 record, but both the Bills and Cowboys have more losses than the Lions and really bad losses at that.

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WagerHome BlogWith No Unbeatens Left, NFL Super Bowl Odds Shift

Best Bets for NFL Week 6

by WagerHome Blog on October 12, 2023

At this point in the season, there is little doubt that the San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL. They are great on both sides of the ball and beating opponents by the largest margin in the league.

The Philadelphia Eagles are also 5-0, and they will have something to say about the invincibility of the 49ers when the two teams meet the first week of December. Until then, we’ll see if both of them can remain perfect.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Cleveland Browns

Normally, when the coach of a great NFL team tries to pump up an inferior opponent before they play on Sunday, we ignore it. But 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has a point when he looks ahead to their game in Cleveland, and calls the Browns, “the biggest challenge so far.”

The Browns’ defense is very good, and by a number of traditional and advanced metrics, they rank first or second. They do indeed present a problem for the 49ers, who have found the going pretty easy on offense through five weeks.

The problem for the Browns is their offense, which is not good. And Deshaun Watson is uncertain to play, leaving the starting quarterback job to P.J. Walker. Walker made five starts last year for the Panthers, and he was 2-3.

The 49ers offense won’t show out as much in this game, but covering the spread is still the best bet.


Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Jets

The Eagles also face a really good defense as they look to stay perfect on the season. The Jets also have a suspect offense. However, Breece Hall has emerged as a true star this season, and there are no signs of the ACL tear that ended his rookie NFL season in 2022.

Because of their ability to run the ball and play good defense, the Jets will keep this game close in the beginning. But the Eagles are just too good along both the offensive and defensive lines, and they will eventually wear down the Jets and cover this spread late in the NFL game.

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Cowboys had a bad game last week at San Francisco, but they haven’t had two bad NFL games in a row in more than two years. This defense is still very good and easily the best defense faced this year by the Chargers.

L.A. is hard to trust, with bad losses to the Titans and Dolphins and near-misses against the Vikings and Raiders. The Cowboys fans will fill up SoFi Stadium, and they will be treated to a spread–covering win.

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WagerHome BlogBest Bets for NFL Week 6

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 22, 2022

We went from one team with a clinched playoff berth, to six. We had the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL, and the Bills became a playoff team in the most appropriate possible setting – the snow.

The Jaguars are for real, so are the Lions, and the Patriots suffered a loss we will be talking about for decades.

How can NFL Week 16 possibly top that?

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

It’s hard to know what to make of a division-clinching NFL game that saw the Vikings fall behind 33-0 at halftime, only to have them storm back to win 39-36. The truth is, probably not much. They are neither of those teams and instead somewhere in the middle. And that middle, especially at home, is good enough to beat the Giants by more than a field goal.

New York is probably going to end up in the NFL playoffs, but don’t trust them this week. Give the points and take the Vikings.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

Do not adjust your settings. The Detroit Lions are a good team and a good bet to make the playoffs. They are not in the playoff picture just yet, still a half-game back of the Commanders for the seventh spot. But the Lions have a favorable schedule, beginning with this game at Carolina.

The Lions have won six of their last seven, covering the spread in all seven NFL games, and this week they will make it eight in a row.

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

The 49ers are the champions of the NFC West, and the No. 2 seed in the NFC is still in sight. It may be that it doesn’t really matter who plays quarterback for this team. Jimmy Garoppolo or Brock Purdy, the team hasn’t changed. Outside of Philadelphia, they have been the most consistently good team in the conference.

Washington is currently a playoff team, but they are nowhere close to San Francisco. The 49ers will win this game and cover the spread for the sixth straight NFL game.

Philadelphia Eagles (+6) at Dallas Cowboys

A couple of weeks ago, this was going to be the game of the year. Certainly, it was going to be the game of the year in the NFC East. But the Cowboys’ hopes for the division are holding on by a fingernail after they lost last week to Jacksonville, and now we’re not sure if Jalen Hurts will be able to play.

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni isn’t ruling Hurts out, but he is preparing Gardner Minshew just in case. And even if Minshew starts, we still like the Eagles to cover.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 16 Betting Picks

NFL Week 10 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on November 8, 2022


NFL Week 10 Betting Picks can be found almost anywhere, but you’ve landed on our expert analysis. We closed out the first half of the NFL season with just another boring week in the NFL, which saw the Jets get a massive win over the Bills, Joe Mixon score five touchdowns in the Bengals’ big win, and Patrick Mahomes account for 500 total yards in the Chiefs overtime win over the Titans.

And, oh yeah, Tom Brady moved the Buccaneers 60 yards in less than a minute to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Rams and keep the Buccaneers’ season alive. Just another ho-hum week in the greatest sports league in the world. All sarcasm aside, read on for our NFL Week 10 Betting Picks.


NFL Week 10 Betting Picks: Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers


The Seahawks have won four straight games, they’ve won four straight against the spread, and they are in first place in the NFC West. And yet, for the eighth time this season, they are the underdog going into a game.

It’s worth noting that straight up, the Seahawks are 5-2 as underdogs this season.

Only a miracle from Tom Brady kept the Bucs from losing their fourth straight last week, and they won’t be so lucky against Seattle. We’re not going to be fooled by Tom Brady’s magic in the fourth quarter. Take the points and the Seahawks.

NFL Week 10 Betting Picks


NFL Week 10 Betting Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs


The Chiefs win the matchups with the Jaguars everywhere but at running back, where Travis Etienne of the Jaguars has turned into a star. But Kansas City shut down Derrick Henry in the second half of their game Sunday night, and they will contain Etienne enough to win this game.

The Chiefs, however, aren’t great at covering the spread, at just 3-5 this season, so go with the Jaguars and take the points.


NFL Week 10 Betting Picks: Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7)


The Chargers pulled off a comeback win in Atlanta, and their inability to defend the run made it such a close game. The 49ers have a much better defense and a much better running game than the Falcons, and they and new weapon Christian McCaffrey will have their way with Los Angeles’ defense.

The Chargers will struggle with the San Francisco pass rush and not keep up with the 49ers‘ offense, and they will not be able to cover the spread. Take the Niners and give the points.


NFL Week 10 Betting Picks: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5)


Odds are the Eagles won’t go undefeated this year, but the odds are that the first blemish to their record will not come at home against Washington on Monday night. In only two of their eight wins have, Philadelphia’s opponent been within a score of the Eagles this season. There are very good reasons why the Eagles remain undefeated in 2022.

The Commanders often play in close games – their last five have been decided by four, five, two, one, and three points. But the first time they played Philadelphia, they lost by 16 and will lose by at least 11 in the rematch. Take the Eagles and give the points.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 10 Betting Picks

NFL Week 6 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on October 12, 2022

Six teams are 4-1 or better, and eight others are 3-2. As the NFL passes the quarter pole and heads toward the halfway point, parity reigns supreme. Anything can happen on any given Sunday, like the highest-scoring offense in the league being shut out. Or the league’s last winless team getting a win.

Or the defending Super Bowl champions getting embarrassed for a second week in a row. The Rams’ offense is bad, and the AFC champion Bengals also lost again. And it looks more and more like two new NFL teams are going to rise to the top.

New York Jets (+7) at Green Bay Packers

For the first time since they won in NFL Week 1 of the 2018 season, the New York Jets are over .500. That’s no small feat, considering that they began the season with their starting quarterback injured and with many other key spots occupied by rookies.

But this Jets team has the ability, it has heart, and it now has a running game that can keep games close, especially against an offense that is sputtering like the Packers. The Jets getting a win at Lambeau Field is highly unlikely, but they are good enough to stay competitive and cover the touchdown spread.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Over 50.5)

In Week 1, Geno Smith was feeling out the Seattle offense, and Pete Carroll was feeling out Smith. In NFL Week 2, they were facing the 49ers, which kept the scoring low. But since that game and over the last three weeks, the Seattle offense has exploded, and the OVER has been hitting.

They cleared the over by 6.5 in Week 3, by 44.5 in Week 4, and by 26 points last week.

Seattle’s defense is not good, giving Kyler Murray a chance to have a big day, and that is why betting OVER 50.5 total points for this NFL game is one of the best bets of the day.


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Last week it was the Arizona Cardinals that covered the spread against the Eagles and held them to their lowest point total of the NFL season. And it is true that the Dallas defense is considerably better than anything the Cardinals have.

But this game is in Philadelphia, it’s under the lights, and the Linc will be rocking. That means the Eagles’ defense will get after a slower-than-normal offensive line, and Cooper Rush will suffer the first loss of his Cowboys career.

Dallas will generate very little on offense, and Jalen Hurts is just too good to struggle against the Dallas defense. Philly wins by more than a touchdown.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 6 Betting Picks

NFL Opening Round Playoff Picks

by WagerHome Blog on January 13, 2022

NFL Wild card weekend is here, and the only thing as good as the football from Saturday through Monday night, is the betting.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)

The Bengals haven’t won a playoff game in 31 years, losing eight straight playoff games since beating the Houston Oilers 41-14. That eight-game losing streak began with a 20-10 loss to the Raiders, and the streak will end with a win over the Raiders by at least a touchdown.

For the Raiders, this will be their third straight postseason loss.

New England Patriots (+4) at Buffalo Bills

For the third time in just over a month, the Patriots and Bills meet, and that kind of familiarity favors the experience of Bill Belichick.

The Bills offense has struggled since they played the Patriots in Week 16. Josh Allen threw three interceptions in Week 17 and completed just 53 percent of his passes in Week 18.

The Bills may still win, but the Patriots’ defense keeps it to within a field goal.

Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Except for two games with the Panthers, the Bucs haven’t looked great this last month. There was the near-miss against the Jets, a shut out to the Saints, and a trainer’s room full of injuries.

NFL Opening Round Playoff PicksTom Brady is still Tom Brady, but the 109 yards given up on the ground to Josh Allen in Week 14 is a sign that the top rusher among NFL quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts, and the top-ranked rushing team, the Eagles, will keep this game close.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

A month ago, it was said that if the Cowboys re-discovered their offense, they were going to be really tough to beat in the postseason. Two 50-burgers in the last three weeks, and this offense, coupled with a defense that ranks seventh in points allowed, should roll at home.

The Niners earned their way into the playoffs, but they will be bounced by more than a touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5)

In 19 playoff games, we have seen a point spread as high as 13 points. The favored team is 18-1 overall (the one loss was by the Rams to the Patriots in the Super Bowl), and against the spread, the favored team is 11-7-1.

The Steelers lost to Kansas City, 36-10, three weeks ago, and that was without Travis Kelce. He’s playing, and the Chiefs win this game easily.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4)

The Cardinals did get the win in Dallas in Week 17, but they’ve lost the other four of their final fives games and too bad teams in Detroit and Seattle. The Rams backed into the division championship with their own loss in Week 18 but have enough firepower to win this game by a touchdown.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Opening Round Playoff Picks

Week 17 Playoff Picture Games To Watch

by WagerHome Blog on December 28, 2019

There are no Saturday NFL games this week, and no one plays on Monday. With playoff implications on the line, the NFL has everyone playing on Sunday for Week 17 of the regular season, so that all teams go into their games on equal footing.

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A full 11 of the 16 games on Sunday will decide NFL playoff berths and seeding, but it’s the following five games that we’re keeping our eyes on the most.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

The Texans have already clinched the AFC South and are currently the fourth seed in the playoffs. It’s possible they could move up to third, but that would require a Chiefs loss to the Chargers in Kansas City.

For the Titans, it’s simple; win, and they are in the playoffs as the sixth seed. If it was to lose to the Texans, then Tennessee needs Pittsburgh and Indianapolis to lose, and then it would still get in.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are locked in as the AFC’s top seed. So with home-field wrapped up, they will probably rest many of their starters. That could open the door for the Steelers, who would become the sixth seed if they win and the Titans lose.

There are also a few other less likely scenarios to get the Steelers in that involve multiple other results and a strength-of-victory tiebreaker.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers and Seahawks are both in the playoffs, but the difference between a first-round bye and having to go on the road as a Wild Card is a big one, which makes this game one of the most intriguing of the weekend.

Whichever team wins gets the division. If it’s the 49ers, they will also get a first-round bye. If the Seahawks win, they get the bye if the Packers lose this week. Scenarios also exist for either team to get home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

The NFC East hasn’t exactly shown itself to be the class of the NFL this season. Only one playoff team will emerge from the division, and it’s now impossible for any team to win as many as 10 games.

That being said, the division championship is coming down to the final week, and the Eagles are in the driver’s seat. If they beat the New York Giants, they are champs of the NFC East and will be the NFC’s fourth seed.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

If the Eagles falter against the Giants, then the Cowboys can win the division. They will need to beat the Redskins at home, and their division-winning scenario only comes to fruition if the Eagles lose.

Otherwise, a Cowboys win will be a nice way to end the season, but their season will end.

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WagerHome BlogWeek 17 Playoff Picture Games To Watch