There are eight teams left in the running for the College Football Playoff’s final four positions, and it all comes down to one final weekend of conference championship football.
No. 6 Oregon (-9.5) vs. No. 4 Washington
Both the Ducks and Huskies can make the CFP, but only if they win on Friday in Las Vegas. Washington would be an obvious choice as an undefeated conference champion, and a two-time winner over Oregon. If the Ducks win the Pac-12 instead, then they would likely need a loss by Florida State to get into the CFP.
No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas (-15)
Similar to the scenario for one-loss Oregon to get into the CFP, Texas also has one loss, and would likely only leapfrog Florida State if the Seminoles lose. A win over Oklahoma State is expected to put them ahead of Ohio State, since the Longhorns would be a conference champion with an extra win.
Oklahoma State can’t get it, but a Big 12 win would be quite a coup for a team that got blown out this season by South Alabama and UCF.
No. 1 Georgia (-6) vs. No. 8 Alabama
If Alabama is able to get past Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, they will get into the CFP. Probably. But they would also need Texas to win, so that loss to the Longhorns early in the season doesn’t look so bad.
If Georgia loses, there are scenarios in which they can still get into the final four of the CFP. But the field is crowded, and there would need to be no more than one unbeaten team remaining. In order for two teams from the same conference to get it, we would need to see a little bit of chaos on Saturday.
No. 10 Louisville vs. No. 5 Florida State (-2.5)
It’s hard to envision a scenario where Florida State wins the ACC, but doesn’t get in. No unbeaten Power Five conference champion has ever been left out of the College Football Playoff. However, it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that if FSU looks rather sluggish in beating Louisville, they could lose out to a one-loss Georgia.
The Seminoles would do themselves a big favor in showing the committee that even without quarterback Jordan Travis, this offense can put up points.
No. 3 Michigan (-23) vs. No. 17 Iowa
The biggest favorite of the week is Michigan, going against the best punting team in the history of college football, Iowa. The Wolverines cruise into the CFP with a win.
The looming question for the Big Ten is Ohio State. They lost to Michigan last year by 22 at home, and they still got into the CFP. In order for it to happen again this year they need Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas to lose, and then put up their resume against one-loss FSU.
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