NCAA Football National Title Game Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on January 6, 2023

Nearly five months after the college football season began, there’s just one game left to play, the National Championship game. The No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs are on a mission to repeat after their late rally against Ohio State in the semifinals. The No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs stand in their way after upsetting Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.

Monday’s National football Championship Game will be played at a neutral site in Los Angeles, at SoFi Stadium. With a spread of 13.5 points in favor of Georgia, this game has one of the largest spreads in recent title games.

TCU on Upset Run

The Horned Frogs began the season unranked and with better than 1500-1 odds to win the football title. A win on Monday would go down as one of the biggest upsets in college football history and rival the largest preseason underdogs to win a title in any sport.

To keep their run going, TCU has to find a way to force turnovers like they did against Michigan. A blocked kick, fumble recovery or pick-six can flip the momentum early and put Georgia on their heels.

Michigan’s football defense doesn’t allow many yards on the ground, but Ohio State showed TCU how to attack the Bulldogs through the air. TCU running back Kendre Miller was injured against Michigan though they are hopeful he will be 100%.

Duggan gets rid of the football quickly, and he will need to as the Bulldogs racked up four sacks against Ohio State, even without pass-rusher Nolan Smith. Duggan ranks 28th in the nation in completed passes down the field, but the Heisman runner-up was picked off twice against Michigan, something he must avoid on Monday.

TCU’s football defense isn’t great, and they gave up more than 550 yards to Michigan. The Horned Frogs play a 3-3-5 defense, and Georgia completed nearly 70% of their passes this season against five DB’s.

 

Bulldogs on a Repeat Mission

Stetson Bennett sure does save his best for the big games. Last year he threw for 537 yards and five touchdowns in the two playoff games, with no interceptions. In Saturday’s semifinal, he led the comeback over Ohio State with 398 yards and three passing touchdowns, including the game-winning score with 54 seconds left.

The Georgia running backs and offensive line can go to work against the Horned Frogs defense. Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards combined for 128 yards against Ohio State on 13 carries, and Mcintosh added four catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Georgia didn’t stick to the run as they trailed the Buckeyes, but if they can get the ground game going early, they can control the clock and the game.

Georgia’s defense has been uncharacteristic in their last two games, with 30 points allowed against LSU and 41 against Ohio State. On the season, they have allowed just 12.8 ppg and 77 rushing ypg. Even without Smith, they have enough talent to get things back on track on defense and suffocate the Horned Frogs offense.

Game Scripts Dictate Props

You can offer plenty of fun props on the national title game. If Georgia controls the clock and the running game, their passing totals will be low, and that also means TCU will be impatient on offense and throw more. However, if Georgia falls behind like they did against OSU and they run the ball less than 20 times, their passing game props will skyrocket.

Miller is the closest thing to an automatic touchdown for either team, as he found the endzone 17 times on the season. McIntosh has 12 touchdowns, but no one else on either team has gone for more than six touchdowns this season. Touchdown props can be another fun market to create props and bets for a game like this.

UGA Repeats in Big Way

All the numbers here point towards Georgia winning and being in control for the entire game. A 20-point win wouldn’t be a surprise at all, as the Bulldogs have been here before, won big games over ranked teams, and they have the superior talent at nearly every position.

WagerHome BlogNCAA Football National Title Game Betting Preview

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