Following this week’s NFL games, all 32 teams will get their first quarter grades. While teams such as New England, Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams have picked up from where they left off last season, this week’s matchups take on much more importance for Philadelphia and the Los Angles Chargers in light of slower than expected starts.
Private bookies trying to make the early adjustments in the betting lines in light of the early results are hoping that the favorable trends for underdogs and UNDERs on the total line carry over to this week’s results.
Once each team does have a quarter of its schedule in the books, the early overreactions start to turn into more reliable betting trends moving forward. Also, it is important to pay close attention to any significant injury situations to gauge the impact on a team’s overall performance.
Season-to-Date Football Betting Results
The early NFL betting trends have favorites winning 63.8 percent of their games straight-up with that rate dropping to 42.6 percent when you factor in the closing spread. Road favorites are tearing it up either way. In 16 games where the road team was favored, it won 73.3 percent of the time SU while covering at 62.5 percent ATS. If you are using a bookie website, you most likely already know that road underdogs covering ATS has been another hot bet with a 67.7 winning percentage.
The NFL total line continues to lean towards the UNDER with 54.2 percent of the first three weeks of games staying UNDER the closing line. Keep an eye on this trend in Week 4 with that gap is beginning to close in more recent results.
Through four weeks of games in the college ranks, the favorite has won 86 percent of the time SU, but the Oddsmakers have been money to drop this number down to 52.3 percent ATS.
Interestingly enough, road favorites have the best winning rate ATS at 58.1 percent to mirror the same trend in the NFL. Betting the college total line, the numbers have been rather sharp as well with 51.4 percent of the games staying UNDER.
For any bookies tracking this year’s Westgate Las Vegas NFL SuperContest to get a feel for where most of the action is going, the Los Angeles Rams topped last week’s list with 1474 picks. Seattle was next on the list at 988 with Detroit rounding out the Top 3 with 937 picks.
Early NFL Week 4 Consensus Picks
As far as the NFL Week 4 games, the early betting consensus is leaning heavily towards the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs (86%) as 6.5-point road favorites against the 2-0-1 Detroit Lions. The 3-0 New England Patriots (82%) are seven-point road favorites in an AFC East clash against the 3-0 Buffalo Bills.
In a pair of late starts on Sunday afternoon, Seattle (-5 against Arizona) and Minnesota (+2 against Chicago) are next on the list 74%.
This Weekend’s Big Betting Games
The final weekend of the MLB regular season is highlighted by a three-game set between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs are out of the playoffs but they can play the role of spoiler as the Cardinals try and nail down the NL Central Division title. The Milwaukee Brewers have clinched a playoff spot and they are 1.5 games in back of St. Louis in the standings. Milwaukee will wrap up its season with three road games against Colorado.
Saturday’s college football schedule is highlighted by pair of head-to-head matchups at 3:30 p.m. between nationally ranked teams. No. 18 Virginia will be on the road as a 12.5-point underdog against No. 10 Notre Dame on NBC. Over on FOX in a Pac-12 showdown, No. 21 USC goes on the road to face No. 17 Washington. The Huskies are favored by 10.5 points.