Take the Dogs Out This MLB Postseason

by Wager Home on October 6, 2019

Betting on baseball during the regular season requires some serious discipline. There are nearly 15 games each day, which can be both a blessing and a curse for bettors. One of the big positives of the 162-game regular season is that bettors can identify trends that translate into betting opportunities. This postseason, like many past postseasons, those trends indicate backing underdogs in the MLB playoffs.


WagerHome is YOUR home for Sportsbook Solutions

WagerHome is YOUR home for Sportsbook Solutions

WagerHome is YOUR home for Sportsbook Solutions


A Little History

Going back to 2005, the underdog won 42.5 percent (15,458-of-20,950) of all MLB regular season games. That number jumps to 44.8 percent, or 210-of-259, in the postseason. Even more interesting is the home underdog. In 119 games since 2005, the home underdog is 61-58. Based upon these numbers alone, bettors can see why backing underdogs can lead to bigger payouts.

The Bounce-Back Theory

The MLB playoffs attract many recreational bettors that incorrectly assume that most playoff series are ones that go “back and forth.” There is a misconception that teams that lose a game will often “bounce back” and simply win the next game. This idea leads to some faulty betting strategies (if you can even call it a strategy).

A serious MLB bettor would be better off backing a team coming off a win than coming off a loss. The numbers prove it. Again going back to 2005, teams that lost the previous game are 172-183 (48.5 percent) in their next game. Teams that won their previous game went on to win 51.1 percent – a record of 179-171 – of the time.

Even more interesting is the underdog coming off a win. While it might be conventional thinking to believe the dog got lucky and is bound to lose, that has not been the case. Underdogs coming off a win have proved a good value going 86-96 (47.3 percent).

Betting Totals

Another strategy for the serious MLB playoff bettor is to back postseason underdogs with high totals. The magic number for totals bettors seems to be 8. With a total of 8 or higher in the postseason, the Under is 110-86. The Over is 132-114 when the total is 7.5 or lower.

It’s also worth noting that underdogs in games where the total is 8.5 or higher are 83-89 since 2003. When the total is 8 or less, dogs are 127-170 during the same time frame. In Game 1 of the Cardinals-Braves series, Atlanta was a home underdog and the Total was set at 8.5. The underdog Braves and the Under were winners as a result of the 3-0 Atlanta victory.

Do not sleep on the Braves when considering your MLB postseason bets

Do not sleep on the Braves when considering your MLB postseason bets

Making It Through the Rest of the Postseason

Bettors looking for the most bang for their buck this MLB postseason should do their best to focus on underdogs. More often than not, MLB playoff teams are evenly matched which tends to favor upsets. Remember, more casual bettors will want to get in on the action at this time of year. That works in the underdogs favor as well.

Recreational bettors tend to put their money on favorites. Doing so can lead to artificially inflated lines, which ends up resulting in higher payouts for the more unpopular underdog. This MLB postseason, takes the dogs out to the park and pad that bankroll.

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Wager HomeTake the Dogs Out This MLB Postseason

Weekly Bookie Betting Report- Oct. 3

by Wager Home on October 3, 2019

October is one of the biggest months of the year for private bookies. All four major US professional leagues are in action along with college football. While the revenue and subsequent profit this month can generate is a major financial boon, managing all the daily and weekly action coming in becomes a much tougher task, but we’re here to give some assistance with our Weekly Bookie Betting Report for Oct. 3.

It is a must win week for some NFL teams

It is a must win week for some NFL teams

This is where a quality pay per head bookie software solutions provider can more than earn the weekly fees they charge for each of your active betting customers. Bookies need to look at each sport as a separate profit center to fully make the most of this unique opportunity. By developing a customer base for each betting opportunity, you will be able to maximize the bottom-line profit for your entire bookmaking operation.

Season-to-Date Football Betting Results

The NFL wrapped up the first quarter of its regular season schedule and the early betting trends still favor the underdogs against the spread with a winning rate of 61.3 percent. The best bet through the first four weeks has been road dogs winning 70 percent of the time. Road teams in general have been a profitable play covering 64.5 percent of their games. Road teams have also won 56.5 percent of their games straight-up.

Underdogs have won close to 42 percent of the time straight-up to add some action to the NFL moneyline bet. The best bet on the total line has been the UNDER with a winning rate of 55.6 percent.

The betting results for the first five weeks of the college football season have been much more stable. While the favorites have won 84.7 percent of their games SU, their winning rate ATS is just 50.8 percent. All the betting trends ATS are just about even with road favorites having the best edge at 53.2 percent. The UNDER has a winning rate of 52.3 percent when it comes to betting the college football total line.

One of the biggest handicapping contests of the NFL season is the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. Last week, the consensus picks road the Kansas City Chiefs with 1463 picks, but they could not cover the seven points in a tight 34-30 road win against Detroit. New England was second on the list with 930 picks but the Patriots failed to cover in a tight 16-10 road win against Buffalo as seven-point favorites.


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Early NFL Week 5 Consensus Picks

The early betting consensus for Week 5 in the NFL is back on the 4-0 Patriots at 69 percent as heavy 15.5-point road favorites against the 0-4 Washington Redskins. The 0-4 Arizona Cardinals are a solid bet at 65 percent as three-point road underdogs against the 0-4 Cincinnati Bengals.

Most of the games this week are tight either way with no clear favorite. There are also several “too close to call” scenarios betting the NFL total line.

This Weekend’s Big Betting Games

Can the Rays upset the best team in baseball?

Can the Rays upset the best team in baseball?

All four MLB best-of-five league division series will get underway starting on Thursday. In the American League, the New York Yankees are -220 favorites against the Minnesota Twins. In the other AL series, the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the heavily favored Houston Astros.

The Atlanta Braves are -140 favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals in one NLDS and the Los Angeles Dodgers are -220 favorites against the Washington Nationals in the other NL series.

One of the heaviest bet games in the NFL this Sunday should be the 3-1 Green Bay Packers on the road against the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. on FOX. Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season with the Cowboys set as 3.5 favorites. The total for this key NFC clash has been set at 47 points.

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Wager HomeWeekly Bookie Betting Report- Oct. 3

NFL 2019 Week 4 in Review

by Wager Home on October 1, 2019

There must have been something in the air. Week 4 of the 2019 season was a week full of upsets, some surprising, some not so much. Underdogs were 9-7 in Week 3, and Week 4 watched at eight more dogs pulled out wins. We’ll talk about a lot of it in this week’s NFL 2019 Week 4 in Review.

The Bucs upset of the Rams was one of many in Week 4

The Bucs upset of the Rams was one of many in Week 4

There was also another starting quarterback injury, which could upset the balance of power in the NFC North. If you’re looking for power in your aspiring bookie business, consider a pay per head free trial and put your career on autopilot. Now, back to Week 4.


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Upset Special

It all started on Thursday night when Philadelphia went into Green Bay and beat the Packers, who were 3-point favorites, 34-27. It continued over the weekend as we saw some shocking upsets, like the Cleveland Browns who were giving away a touchdown to the Baltimore Ravens.

In Baltimore no less, the Browns Nick Chubb did something not many running backs do against a Ravens defense. He rushed for 165 yards and scored three touchdowns to lead Cleveland to a rather easy 40-25 victory.

A similar surprise occurred in Los Angeles where Tampa Bay really had no business being able to play with the 3-0 Rams. Well, until the game started anyway. The Bucs never trailed and, despite being 9-point road dogs, crushed the Rams 55-40. Tampa Bay joined Carolina, Oakland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and New Orleans as underdogs that won in Week 4.

Cover or Not to Cover

Detroit entered Week 4 unbeaten at 2-0-1 and a 7-point underdog at home against Kansas City. No one would have thought the Lions would have a shot to beat the NFL’s best offense, but they did. If not for a Chiefs touchdown in the final minute, Detroit would have pulled the upset. The Lions did, however, cover the spread losing 34-30.

A similar set of circumstances were found in Buffalo.

Two unbeaten teams – New England and the Bills – met with the home team a 7-point underdog. The Bills gave the Patriots everything they could handle. New England QB Tom Brady had one of the worst days of his career completing 18-of-39 passes for just 150 yards.

If not for four turnovers and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, the Bills might have pulled the upset. Instead, they covered losing 16-10. There is always value to be found when betting football.

The Bills were a great value pick this week

The Bills were a great value pick this week

The Chargers were the week’s biggest favorite as NFL dud Miami was giving 15 points. The Dolphins continued their futility giving up 30 points or more for the fourth straight week while scoring just 10. The 30-10 allowed the Chargers to cover.

In addition to the Chargers, the Giants, Seahawks, Bears, and Steelers all won and covered in Week 4.

QB Injury Bug

The latest starting quarterback to go down was Chicago’s Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears starter was hurt on the sixth play of their game against Minnesota. He suffered a disclocated left shoulder that will not require surgery. The Bears head to London to play Oakland next week, and Trubisky is unlikely to play.

If you have Trubisky on your fantasy team, you may want to readjust your lineup. You may even want to look for another quarterback as Trubisky could miss a few weeks while healing.


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Contest Updates

The Westgate Supercontest is beginning to heat up as two contestants are starting to pull away from the rest of the pack. ER @ JAR and TUCO both 5-0 in Week 4 to move to 19-1 overall. The two share the top spot and they also shared the $15,000 1st Quarter Bonus. THE HUMAN FUND, TRAIHP86, and ZAMBUIE EXPRESS each went 5-0 in Week 4 to move to 17-3 overall just behind the leaders.

After three weeks in the Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge, SIRIUS-3 sits alone atop the leaderboard with a 17-3-1 record for 17.50 points. DETROIT LION-1 and MIDNIGHT RUN-1 are tied for second at 17-4-0 (17.00 points).

There are three entrants tied for first place in the Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest. GOLDEN MONKEY, CB ELITE, and augiedawg each have a share of the lead with 13 points.

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Wager HomeNFL 2019 Week 4 in Review

Finding Value in a Big Football Weekend

by Wager Home on September 28, 2019

It is the greatest time of year. All weekend long, you can find football everywhere and, for bettors looking to increase their bankrolls, the possibilities are almost endless. It has actually already begun with Thursday night action in both college and professional football. It continues with a full slate of college games on Saturday and the NFL on Sunday and Monday night.


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Never go down on a Sunday again with Server Security


Whether you are a bettor looking for value picks or an aspiring bookie searching for the best pay per head service, you will likely have your eye on this weekend’s action. There is plenty of it and a number of great options. Here’s a look at where you may be able to increase that bankroll.

List of NFL Unbeatens to Shrink

At least two of the NFL’s unbeatens are going down on Sunday. New England (3-0) travels to Buffalo (3-0) and the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) take on the surprising unbeaten Detroit Lions (2-0-1).

The Chiefs are a 6.5-point road chalk with Sunday’s Total set at 54.5. Think about it. Kansas City’s offense indoors and the Lions might be without their top two cornerbacks – Darius Slay and Rashaan Melvin. Ouch!

The Patriots are another big road favorite, but bettors should look to New England’s recent record as a road favorite. As a single-digit road favorite, the Patriots were 1-5. They were 0-3 when favored by 6-9 points away from home. Add in this interesting tidbit: The Patriots are 17-0 in their last 17 games against first- or second-year quarterbacks.

The Patriots also play a lot of man coverage. In fact, they have the second-highest usage rate for man coverage in the league. Bills QB Josh Allen averages 8.0 yards per attempt against zone coverage but just 6.6 yards per attempt against man. Hmmmm?

Get all your NFL odds here.

Double-Digit Values in College Football

There are some double-digit spreads this weekend in college football that should entice bettors and price per head services alike. Take No. 21 USC traveling to No. 17 Washington. The Huskies are a 10.5-point- home favorite. One would expect a closer game between two ranked opponents playing a huge conference game.

But, the Trojans are down to their final healthy scholarship quarterback, Matt Fink. He came on last week in relief of Kedon Slovis to pull an upset of Utah. Saturday will be the first-ever start for Fink, a 6-3, 200-pound junior. On the road against a defense that gives up just 18 points a game, it could get ugly for USC.

Kedon Slovis left last week's game with a head injury

Kedon Slovis left last week’s game with a head injury

Another big value game involves fifth-ranked Ohio State traveling to Lincoln to take on Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are 3-1 and played the Buckeyes extremely tough a year ago, but this season Nebraska is a 17-point home underdog.

Sure Ohio State has won its last 10 games by an average of 25 points, but the Cornhuskers, under second-year head coach Scott Frost, need a program win and this would be it.

Virginia traveling to No. 10 Notre Dame is another matchup of ranked teams with another double-digit favorite. The home Fighting Irish are favored by 10.5 points. Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall is slowly building something really good at Virginia. Notre Dame was on the other end of the stick last week as a double-digit road dog at Georgia. The Irish covered in a 23-17 loss.

It could be the Cavaliers turn this week to do the same. Virginia allows just 75 rushing yards and 263.8 total yards per game. They slow opponent down and have allowed over 17 points just once in their last five games.

College or professional, there are a numerous games this weekend where bettors can find a nugget. Get in on the action or ramp up your own bookie business with a pay per head free trial. You’ll be glad you did after this weekend.

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Wager HomeFinding Value in a Big Football Weekend

Weekly Bookie Betting Report- Sept. 26

by Wager Home on September 26, 2019

Following this week’s NFL games, all 32 teams will get their first quarter grades. While teams such as New England, Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams have picked up from where they left off last season, this week’s matchups take on much more importance for Philadelphia and the Los Angles Chargers in light of slower than expected starts.


Related: NFL Week 3 2019 | Week in Review


Private bookies trying to make the early adjustments in the betting lines in light of the early results are hoping that the favorable trends for underdogs and UNDERs on the total line carry over to this week’s results.

Once each team does have a quarter of its schedule in the books, the early overreactions start to turn into more reliable betting trends moving forward. Also, it is important to pay close attention to any significant injury situations to gauge the impact on a team’s overall performance.

It is important to pay close attention to team's injury reports

It is important to pay close attention to team’s injury reports

Season-to-Date Football Betting Results

The early NFL betting trends have favorites winning 63.8 percent of their games straight-up with that rate dropping to 42.6 percent when you factor in the closing spread. Road favorites are tearing it up either way. In 16 games where the road team was favored, it won 73.3 percent of the time SU while covering at 62.5 percent ATS. If you are using a bookie website, you most likely already know that road underdogs covering ATS has been another hot bet with a 67.7 winning percentage.

The NFL total line continues to lean towards the UNDER with 54.2 percent of the first three weeks of games staying UNDER the closing line. Keep an eye on this trend in Week 4 with that gap is beginning to close in more recent results.

Through four weeks of games in the college ranks, the favorite has won 86 percent of the time SU, but the Oddsmakers have been money to drop this number down to 52.3 percent ATS.

Interestingly enough, road favorites have the best winning rate ATS at 58.1 percent to mirror the same trend in the NFL. Betting the college total line, the numbers have been rather sharp as well with 51.4 percent of the games staying UNDER.

For any bookies tracking this year’s Westgate Las Vegas NFL SuperContest to get a feel for where most of the action is going, the Los Angeles Rams topped last week’s list with 1474 picks. Seattle was next on the list at 988 with Detroit rounding out the Top 3 with 937 picks.

Early NFL Week 4 Consensus Picks

As far as the NFL Week 4 games, the early betting consensus is leaning heavily towards the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs (86%) as 6.5-point road favorites against the 2-0-1 Detroit Lions. The 3-0 New England Patriots (82%) are seven-point road favorites in an AFC East clash against the 3-0 Buffalo Bills.

In a pair of late starts on Sunday afternoon, Seattle (-5 against Arizona) and Minnesota (+2 against Chicago) are next on the list 74%.

This Weekend’s Big Betting Games

The final weekend of the MLB regular season is highlighted by a three-game set between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs are out of the playoffs but they can play the role of spoiler as the Cardinals try and nail down the NL Central Division title. The Milwaukee Brewers have clinched a playoff spot and they are 1.5 games in back of St. Louis in the standings. Milwaukee will wrap up its season with three road games against Colorado.

The Cubs have been reduced to the spoiler role

The Cubs have been reduced to the spoiler role

Saturday’s college football schedule is highlighted by pair of head-to-head matchups at 3:30 p.m. between nationally ranked teams. No. 18 Virginia will be on the road as a 12.5-point underdog against No. 10 Notre Dame on NBC. Over on FOX in a Pac-12 showdown, No. 21 USC goes on the road to face No. 17 Washington. The Huskies are favored by 10.5 points.

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Wager HomeWeekly Bookie Betting Report- Sept. 26

NFL Week 3 2019 | Week in Review

by Wager Home on September 24, 2019

If you like upsets, Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season was full of them. Six dogs showed their bite upsetting the favorite, including the Detroit Lions who remain unbeaten after their win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Yes, the Lions are 2-0-1. Only three of Week 3’s straight up winners didn’t cover.

After two weeks of holding penalty after holding penalty, NFL officials dialed it back. The fewer holding calls had a direct impact on the Totals in Week 3. For those who want to know how to be a bookie, that is a piece of information that could help separate you from other pay per head services.

UPSETS

As mentioned, there were six upsets in Week 3, the biggest of which involved a rookie quarterback in New York. Daniel Jones, the sixth pick in this year’s NFL draft, stepped in and took over for veteran Eli Manning.

Daniel Jones stepped in and helped upset Tampa on Sunday

Daniel Jones stepped in and helped upset Tampa on Sunday

All Jones did was lead a fourth-quarter scoring drive and cap it off with a 7-yard touchdown run with just 1:16 to play to give the Giants their first victory of the season. Tampa Bay, the Giants opponent, was a 5-point favorite.

The other big upset in Week 3 was New Orleans heading to Seattle without Drew Brees. The Saints were 5-point underdogs but were never really challenged by the Seahawks. The 33-27 final score was not indicative of how the Saints dominated the game.

The Lions got a 100-yard kickoff return in a 27-24 upset of the Eagles. Philadelphia entered the game as a 4-point favorite. Houston won as a 3-point dog. Carolina beat Arizona as a 2.5-point dog and Jacksonville beat rival Tennessee on Thursday night. The Titans were favored by 1.5.

GOT YOU COVERED

Yes, Miami is still awful.

The Dolphins are so bad they were giving 22 points to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. With Ezekiel Elliott in the lineup, the Cowboys won 31-6 to cover. The Patriots were not as fortunate. New England was a 21-point favorite over the ailing New York Jets. Leading by 23 in the fourth quarter, the Jets Jamal Adams stepped in front of backup QB Jarrett Stidham’s pass and returned it 61 yards for a touchdown. Final score, 30-14.

Along with the Patriots, Buffalo and San Francisco were both straight up winners but failed to cover. The Bills were 6-point favorites over Cincinnati and won 21-17. San Francisco beat the hapless Pittsburgh Steelers 24-20 also as 6-point favorites.

The Vikings were 9-point favorites against Oakland. Running back Dalvin Cook rushed for over 100 yards for the third consecutive week and Minnesota won 34-14. NFC North foe Green Bay also covered as 7-point favorites against Denver. The Packers sacked Broncos QB Joe Flacco six times and won 27-16.

Indianapolis, Kansas City, the Rams, and the Bears all covered as well.


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MORE BAD NEWS FOR FANTASY OWNERS

If you thought Week 2 was bad for injuries, Week 3 wasn’t much better. The biggest injury news involves New England WR Julian Edelman. The veteran left in the second quarter of the Patriots win over the Jets. He has an apparent rib injury and will be day to day so fantasy owners will have to pay close attention.

Barkley went down with an ankle injury and is out 4-8 weeks

Barkley went down with an ankle injury and is out 4-8 weeks

The other big one was the Giants Saquon Barkley. The running back went down with an ankle injury and did not return. It was later diagnosed that Barkley suffered a high ankle sprain. He will be out four to eight weeks, which will leave many fantasy owners scrambling.

TOTAL TRENDS

With fewer holding calls in Week 3, NFL offenses were able to open up a little and put more points on the board. In Week 2, the Under hit in 13 of the 16 games. Minus the flags in Week 3, 10 games saw the Over hit. Moving forward, this is something a price per head sports book can track to offer great service to its bettors.

CONTEST UPDATES

No perfect records remain in the Westgate Supercontest. Week 3 left a blemish on a few of the leaders’ records. The top-5 is all tied up with 14-1 marks. TUCO, THE801CREW, PHATCAT, ER@JAR, and CHAMPION ICEMAN sit at the top of the leader board. Both ER@JAR and CHAMPION ICEMAN were a perfect 5-0 for the week.

The results of the Circa Sports Million have not been updated to reflect Week 3 results. Mikeybarts1-1 and Mikeybarts1-2 remain tied at the top of the leaderboard with 9.5 points. The same is true of the Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge. Rizzo (11-1-2) and Cuseboy (12-2) entered Week 3 each with 12 points to sit at the top of the standings.

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Wager HomeNFL Week 3 2019 | Week in Review

Finding Value in MLB 2019 Season’s Final Week

by Wager Home on September 22, 2019

The 2019 Major League Baseball is quietly nearing the end of the regular season as the NFL and NCAA college football give bettors a multitude of choices. With the NBA and NHL starting up in October, bettors have an absolute feast on which to gorge. The big question for bettors and those running their own pay per head bookie service is about value. Where can it be found?

Where can betting value be found?

Where can betting value be found?

As the end of the MLB season is upon us, bettors can find a ton of value in teams looking to advance to the postseason. Races are tight in both the National and American Leagues. Here’s how they are shaping up.


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National League

The favorite to win the NL is the Los Angeles Dodgers who, as of Saturday night, had an NL-high 99 wins. The Dodgers have clinched the West Division for the sixth straight season. Atlanta (96-60) has clinched the East and the St. Louis Cardinals are on their way to clinching the Central.

Where the heat is on is in the wild card race where Washington (85-68) and Milwaukee (85-70) control the league’s two spots. The Cubs (82-73) are doing a great job of working themselves right out of the playoff race.

Chicago has lost five straight, the last three to St. Louis, and is 2.5 games behind the Brewers in the Major League Baseball standings. The Cubs will face Pittsburgh and the Cardinals again to close the season. Chicago just swept the Pirates a little over a week ago.

What’s interesting about the Cubs is that in the three-game sweep of Pittsburgh they scored 47 runs. In their five consecutive losses, the Cubs lost four of those games by a single run. The other loss was by two. If Chicago continues to play as it has, they are a team to back especially since they can still make the postseason.

American League

Similar circumstances exist in the American League where World Series favorites Houston and the New York Yankees each have won 101 games already. Both teams have clinched playoff spots. The wild card race is also interesting in the AL.

Oakland, by virtue of its 94-61 record, holds the No. 1 wild card slot in the AL. The No. 2 spot is up for grabs between Tampa Bay (92-63) and Cleveland (91-64). Both the Rays and the Indians are doing their best to make sure they earn a postseason berth. Tampa Bay has won four of its last five games and the Indians have won five of their last six.

The Rays and Indians are fighting it out for the final AL Wild Card

The Rays and Indians are fighting it out for the final AL Wild Card


Must Read: Weekly Bookie Report- Sept. 20


Tampa Bay might have the tougher schedule, as they must face division rivals Boston and New York before closing the season at Toronto. Sports bettors might find it intriguing that the Rays play the Yankees at home and New York has already clinched the division. They might also find it interesting that the Yankees have won 12 of the 17 games the teams have played this season.

Cleveland will face Central Division foe Chicago in a three-game series and then finish the season at Washington. The Indians are 8-2 in their last 10 games and are playing as well as anyone. They have averaged over five runs a game over their last six games and have one of the AL’s better road records at 43-32.

MLB action at this time of year is perfect for the aspiring bookie. There’s a ton of value to be found, especially among the teams vying for the wild card spots in their respective leagues. A pay per head free trial can show you how easy it is to provide outstanding value and service to your bettors.

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Wager HomeFinding Value in MLB 2019 Season’s Final Week

Weekly Bookie Betting Report- Sept. 20

by Wager Home on September 20, 2019

September presses on with the first few weeks of the new football season dominating the US sports betting scene. The college season heads into Week 4 while the NFL gears up for its third week of games. The final few weeks of the MLB regular season is still attracting some baseball betting action, especially on games in the tight NL Central Division title race.

One of the stronger betting tendencies in the NFL is overreactions to the early results. Teams like New England and Kansas City in the AFC and Dallas and the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC have been dominant in their first two games. However, the overall results have been highly favorable to bookies with underdogs covering at a much higher rate.

Quickly moving betting lines can save your bookie business

Quickly moving betting lines can save your bookie business

The ability to quickly move betting lines with your quality pay per head service while making changes to your betting board is vital in the early weeks of the football season given the knee-jerk reaction of bettors this time of the year.

Season-to-Date Football Betting Results

Through the first three weeks of games, college football favorites have won 87.2 percent of the time straight-up to add some higher value on betting moneylines. Factoring in the closing spread, things even out with favorites covering in 52.2 percent of the games.

One trend really benefitting bookies is the tight winning percentages against the spread for home teams (49.5%) vs. road teams (50.5%). The closing total line slightly favors the UNDER at 52.2%.

Turning to the betting trends through the first two weeks of the NFL season, the favorites have only won 64.5 percent of the time SU. The home team’s winning percentage stands at 45.2%.

Betting road dogs ATS continues to be the strongest play with a winning rate of 72.2 percent in 19 games. In contrast, home dogs have only covered 38.5 percent of the time through 13 games.


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Underdogs in general have covered 58.1 percent of the time. Betting the UNDER on the total line has been a profitable play with a winning rate of 62.5%.

Turning to last week’s results in Westgate’s NFL SuperContest, players were all over Cleveland with 2053 picks to easily top the list. Dallas and Pittsburgh were second on the list at 966 picks with Cincinnati (804) and the Los Angeles Rams (785) rounding out the Top 5 teams.

Early NFL Week 3 Consensus Picks

The early betting consensus for Week 3 NFL games heavily leans towards the Rams as three-point road favorites against Cleveland for Sunday Night Football’s featured matchup. Also high on the list is New England as a 22.5-point home favorite against the New York Jets.

Bettors are also jumping on Dallas as a 21.5-point home favorite against the Miami Dolphins. The Arizona Cardinals are attracting quite a bit of action as slight 2.5-point home underdogs against Carolina with Panthers’ quarterback Cam Newton still questionable for Sunday’s contest.

This Weekend’s Big Betting Games

The Big Ten is in the spotlight on this Saturday’s college football slate with No. 11 Michigan on the road against No. 13 Wisconsin in a huge inter-division showdown. The Badgers are favored by 3.5 points at home and they have covered ATS in their last five home games against the Wolverines. The total for this 12 p.m. kickoff on FOX is set at 44 points.

The Badgers are favored by 3.5 points over the Wolverines at home

The Badgers are favored by 3.5 points over the Wolverines at home

One of the top matchups on Sunday’s NFL slate pits the 2-0 Baltimore Ravens on the road against the 2-0 Kansas City Chiefs in a 1 p.m. start on CBS. The Chiefs are favored by 6.5 points with the total set at 52.5 points. The Ravens have a slight 4-2 edge ATS in their last six games against Kansas City.

MLB bettors can look forward to a huge NL Central showdown between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs in an extended four-game series starting on Thursday night at Wrigley Field.

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Wager HomeWeekly Bookie Betting Report- Sept. 20

NFL Week 2 2019 | Week in Review

by Wager Home on September 18, 2019

The NFL betting world can calm down now. After the typical Week 1 overreactions, Week 2 showed bettors that one week does not make a season. For some teams, Week 2 was the entire season as the theme was injuries. We’ll bring you the NFL Week 2 2019 Week in Review.

There were quite a few that will affect the rest of the 2019 season. We saw some big line changes in the Browns-Jets game due to Jets QB Sam Darnold’s case of mononucleosis. Remember, you can track line changes with the right pay per head software. On to the Week 2 recap…

WINNERS

A number of teams remained 2-0 SU with wins in Week 2. The Patriots, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, Bills, Ravens, Packers, Chiefs, and Cowboys all remain unbeaten. The Patriots were the weekend’s biggest favorite at -18 over the dumpster fire that is the Miami Dolphins. New England assured it would cover with two pick-six touchdown returns within two minutes of each other.

The Chiefs were a 7-point favorite over their rival Oakland. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes threw four second quarter touchdowns to ensure the Chiefs would cover. The Ravens weren’t as fortunate. Baltimore was a 13-point favorite against Arizona and failed to cover. The Ravens actually had the ball at the Cardinals 5-yard line with 1:21 to play but decided to run the clock out.

The Ravens are 2-0, but failed to cover against the Cardinals

The Ravens are 2-0, but failed to cover against the Cardinals

Pittsburgh was a four-point favorite at home against Seattle, but fell victim to the upset. The Seahawks won 28-26. It was one of five upsets in Week 2. Detroit got a 31-yard Matthew Stafford TD pass with 7:21 to play to beat the Chargers who were 2.5-point favorites.

Julio Jones turned a short pass into a 54-yard touchdown and the Falcons beat Philadelphia, a 1-point favorite. Tampa Bay beat Carolina in Charlotte. The Panthers were 6.5-point favorites. Tennessee was a 3-point favorite but lost to Indianapolis 19-17.


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INJURIES & FANTASY

The big news from Week 2 revolves around injuries, especially those suffered by quarterbacks. Fantasy owners will want to act quickly as Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger is out for the season. Roethlisberger suffered an elbow injury that will require surgery.

Brees' injury will sideline him 6-8 weeks

Brees’ injury will sideline him 6-8 weeks

New Orleans will be without Drew Brees who injured the thumb on his throwing hand. While not as serious as Roethlisberger, Brees will have surgery to repair the damage and will miss at least six weeks. Both injuries will surely affect betting lines in the weeks to come. Bookie software can help aspiring bookmakers track those changes.

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CONTEST UPDATES

Five entries in the Westgate SuperContest remain unbeaten at 10-0 – Phat Cat, Dead Last, TUCO, The 801 Crew, and Rabbit Hunting. All five bet on Cleveland and the New York Jets. Another five entries went 5-0 for the week to remain 9-1 on the season.

The most picked game in the Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest was the Steelers at -4. Mikeybarts 1-1 and Mikeybarts 1-2 remain tied at the top of the leaderboard with 9.5 points. Four other entries are tied for third with 9.0 points.

Two teams remain tied for first in the Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge. Rizzo (11-1-2) and Cuseboy (12-2-0) each have 12 points out of a possible 14. Cousin Sal went a perfect 7-0 in Week 2 choosing the following: Houston Cougars +7, West Virginia +6.5, Temple+7, Oklahoma -22.5, Kansas City -7.5, Denver +2.5, and Atlanta +1.5. Last year’s champion Monsterloc sits in 13th place.

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Wager HomeNFL Week 2 2019 | Week in Review

A Look at Your Best Bets for NFL Week 2

by Wager Home on September 14, 2019

After Week 1 of the new NFL season, you are going to hear it all. The Dolphins are no better than an average college team. The Bears might never score again. Atlanta’s horrible and Lamar Jackson is going to win the league’s MVP award. Your bookie software might be going a little hyperactive, but don’t worry it will calm down. We’ll have a look at your best bets for NFL Week 2. We learned plenty in Week 1 and we’ve seen plenty of line action as we head into Week 2.

Patriots-Dolphins Movement

After last week’s fiasco – a 59-10 loss to Baltimore – the Dolphins opened as 15-point underdogs against New England. If sportsbooks were thinking the +15 would be enough to get the sharps betting on Miami, they were mistaken. The line has moved as high as +19.5 at Matchbook.

The Pats are as high as a 19.5-point favorite

The Pats are as high as a 19.5-point favorite

Fun fact: no team in the Super Bowl era has ever been favored by more than 18 points playing on the road before October. The Patriots are the first. There have been two 18-point favorites, one in 1969 and the other in 1970. On both occasions, the underdog was shut out and failed to cover.

Easy on the Ravens Love

Lamar Jackson had a great day last week. He threw five touchdown passes and Baltimore rolled up nearly 650 yards of total offense. They also did it against what is likely the worst defense in the NFL. The Ravens opened as a 13-point favorite and the line has not moved much.

What has shifted is the Total.

After opening at 42.5, the Total shot up to 46.5 where it currently sits at most of the top online sportsbooks. The Cardinals defense gave up 27 points to Detroit last week, while rookie QB Kyler Murray led a furious comeback to produce 27 points for Arizona.

Hey, mix the Ravens and Cardinals together and you see why the sharps are betting the Over.

 


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Rematch

The Saints and Rams meet once again in a rematch of last year’s NFC title game.

The infamous Saints no-call

The infamous Saints no-call

In regular season games, the home team has won this game on the past six occasions. That includes last year’s 45-35 Saints win in New Orleans. It’s no surprise then that the Rams opened as 2.5-point favorites.

The Total opened at 54, but was pushed down as low as 52 by early betting action. Both teams can push the pace on offense. Last season, the Rams and Saints finished second and third in the league, respectively, in scoring. Expect a lot of points and keep in mind that New Orleans is 21-8 ATS when playing as an underdog.

QB Issues

With the right pay per head service, you can sit back and relax even as some lines go crazy, like those with the Browns and Jets. Cleveland opened as a three-point favorite on the road, but after a poor performance last Sunday, the line dropped to -2.5. Concerns over Jets RB Le’Veon Bell and LB C.J. Mosley moved the line back to 3.0.

Then, it got seemingly worse for the Jets. Quarterback Sam Darnold was diagnosed with mono and is out indefinitely. That means backup Trevor Siemian will start. Lines shifted dramatically with the Browns now a 6.5-point favorite. If Bell and Mosley play, this could be interesting. The last time Cleveland was favored on the road by at least five points was 1995.

Yes, Bill Belichick was the Browns head coach.

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Wager HomeA Look at Your Best Bets for NFL Week 2