NCAA Football National Title Game Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on January 6, 2023

Nearly five months after the college football season began, there’s just one game left to play, the National Championship game. The No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs are on a mission to repeat after their late rally against Ohio State in the semifinals. The No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs stand in their way after upsetting Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.

Monday’s National football Championship Game will be played at a neutral site in Los Angeles, at SoFi Stadium. With a spread of 13.5 points in favor of Georgia, this game has one of the largest spreads in recent title games.

TCU on Upset Run

The Horned Frogs began the season unranked and with better than 1500-1 odds to win the football title. A win on Monday would go down as one of the biggest upsets in college football history and rival the largest preseason underdogs to win a title in any sport.

To keep their run going, TCU has to find a way to force turnovers like they did against Michigan. A blocked kick, fumble recovery or pick-six can flip the momentum early and put Georgia on their heels.

Michigan’s football defense doesn’t allow many yards on the ground, but Ohio State showed TCU how to attack the Bulldogs through the air. TCU running back Kendre Miller was injured against Michigan though they are hopeful he will be 100%.

Duggan gets rid of the football quickly, and he will need to as the Bulldogs racked up four sacks against Ohio State, even without pass-rusher Nolan Smith. Duggan ranks 28th in the nation in completed passes down the field, but the Heisman runner-up was picked off twice against Michigan, something he must avoid on Monday.

TCU’s football defense isn’t great, and they gave up more than 550 yards to Michigan. The Horned Frogs play a 3-3-5 defense, and Georgia completed nearly 70% of their passes this season against five DB’s.


Bulldogs on a Repeat Mission

Stetson Bennett sure does save his best for the big games. Last year he threw for 537 yards and five touchdowns in the two playoff games, with no interceptions. In Saturday’s semifinal, he led the comeback over Ohio State with 398 yards and three passing touchdowns, including the game-winning score with 54 seconds left.

The Georgia running backs and offensive line can go to work against the Horned Frogs defense. Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards combined for 128 yards against Ohio State on 13 carries, and Mcintosh added four catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Georgia didn’t stick to the run as they trailed the Buckeyes, but if they can get the ground game going early, they can control the clock and the game.

Georgia’s defense has been uncharacteristic in their last two games, with 30 points allowed against LSU and 41 against Ohio State. On the season, they have allowed just 12.8 ppg and 77 rushing ypg. Even without Smith, they have enough talent to get things back on track on defense and suffocate the Horned Frogs offense.

Game Scripts Dictate Props

You can offer plenty of fun props on the national title game. If Georgia controls the clock and the running game, their passing totals will be low, and that also means TCU will be impatient on offense and throw more. However, if Georgia falls behind like they did against OSU and they run the ball less than 20 times, their passing game props will skyrocket.

Miller is the closest thing to an automatic touchdown for either team, as he found the endzone 17 times on the season. McIntosh has 12 touchdowns, but no one else on either team has gone for more than six touchdowns this season. Touchdown props can be another fun market to create props and bets for a game like this.

UGA Repeats in Big Way

All the numbers here point towards Georgia winning and being in control for the entire game. A 20-point win wouldn’t be a surprise at all, as the Bulldogs have been here before, won big games over ranked teams, and they have the superior talent at nearly every position.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football National Title Game Betting Preview

NCAA Football Week 11 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on November 8, 2022

The first NCAA Football Playoff rankings didn’t last very long. No. 1 Tennessee was a big loser to Georgia, No. 4 Clemson was upset by Notre Dame, and No. 6 Alabama took its second loss of the year, all but eliminating the Crimson Tide from CFP contention.

The first year of the CFP was 2014, and every year since has included either Clemson, Oklahoma, or Alabama. For the Tide, this would be just the second CFP without their participation.

No. 7 LSU (-3) at Arkansas

LSU is the latest to knock off Alabama, and the win for the Tigers has them on top of the SEC West with only two conference games left to play, Arkansas this week and Texas A&M to close the NCAA football season on Thanksgiving weekend.

If LSU can play its way into an SEC Championship, it would be a College Football Playoff participant for the first time since they won the National Championship and Joe Burrow beat Trevor Lawrence three years ago. The Tigers get themselves started down that path with a win and cover in Fayetteville.

No. 10 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss (+11.5)

Mississippi could still catch LSU in the SEC West, but since they lost straight up against the Tigers three weeks ago, they will need to win out and hope that LSU drops a game. Winning out means they must beat Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Alabama this Saturday.

NCAA Football Week 11 Betting Picks

The Crimson Tide were humbled for a second time this season, but they are still one of the top NCAA football teams in the country. They will win on Saturday but fail to cover.

No. 4 TCU (+7) at No. 18 Texas

TCU is unbeaten at 9-0, and they have climbed from an unranked team to the No. 4 team in the country, and they played four ranked teams in consecutive weeks and beat all four. Yet they go to Austin as touchdown underdogs. That’s not a fair assessment of a team that just keeps finding a way to win.

The Horned Frogs may see their CFP hopes dashed against Texas, but they will play them to the very end. Look for TCU to cover.

No. 15 North Carolina (+3.5) at Wake Forest

Clemson’s loss last week to Notre Dame doesn’t hurt them in the ACC, but it does show their vulnerability for a potential ACC Championship matchup against North Carolina. UNC leads the Coastal division at 5-0, and they just need to take care of business, which includes Saturday at Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons are the NCAA football favorites, but they’ve also lost two straight games. This is going to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week, and in the end, North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye continues his incredible season and wins it for the Heels.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football Week 11 Betting Picks

NCAA Football Week 7 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on October 11, 2022

Georgia had a near-miss in NCAA Week 5, and it dropped them out of the No. 1 ranking. In NCAA Week 6, the near-miss belonged to Alabama, and they, too, dropped out of the No. 1 ranking, putting Georgia back in the top spot.

Great team performances abound, as do great individual efforts. Pittsburgh’s Israel Abanikanda ran for 320 yards and six touchdowns, tying the ACC single-game record.

Also accounting for six touchdowns was Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud, who moved the Buckeyes into the No. 2 ranking with a big 49-20 win over Michigan State.

No. 3 Alabama at No. 6 Tennessee (+7.5)

We begin our slate of games with the displaced Alabama Crimson Tide going to Knoxville to take on the high-scoring offense of the Tennessee Volunteers. The Vols are scoring more than 46 points per game on the back of quarterback Hendon Hooker, and he and this offense will keep scoring against Alabama.

Nick Saban is hopeful that Bryce Young can play, but just how effective will he be? Alabama is likely to win this NCAA game, but Tennessee has the offense to keep it close and to cover the spread.


No. 10 Penn State (+7) at No. 5 Michigan

Two years ago, Penn State got the win at Michigan Stadium, but two years ago, Jim Harbaugh’s crew wasn’t at the top of the Big Ten. They are now, with the defending conference champs 3-0 in the Big Ten, even if they did just fail to cover the spread at Indiana.

Penn State hasn’t covered for two straight, looking uninspired in wins against Central Michigan and Northwestern. But this is Michigan, and they will get up for this one, the first of a tough gauntlet that has them playing Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio State.

Penn State is up for it, and they will cover, even as the Wolverines hold on to win the game.

No. 8 Oklahoma State (+3.5) at No. 13 TCU

TCU nearly came up short last week at Kansas, needing late-game heroics to get past the Jayhawks and their backup quarterback. But they won, and they pushed against the spread – their first non-win against the spread this NCAA season.

Oklahoma State is easily the toughest test of the NCAA season for the Frogs, but they come into this game as underdogs, and that’s why we like them. They were dogs against Baylor, and the Cowboys won outright. And while we’re going to stop short of predicting a win on the moneyline for Oklahoma State, we do like them and the points.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football Week 7 Betting Picks

NCAA Football Week 6 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on October 4, 2022

Two more college football coaches lost their jobs after losses in Week 5. Paul Chryst was in his eighth NCAA football season in Wisconsin, but his 34-10 loss at home to Illinois was too much for athletic director Chris McIntosh. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard will serve as the interim head coach.

In Colorado, it was an 0-5 start that cost Karl Dorrell his job. The Buffs lost to Arizona on Saturday and are just 4-13 since the beginning of last season. Offensive coordinator Mike Samford will take over on an interim basis.

On the field, we have a new No. 1, if you can consider Alabama as “new” at the top of the rankings. Georgia fell to No. 2 after nearly losing to unranked Missouri.

Auburn (+29.5) at No. 2 Georgia

Georgia has huge wins over Oregon and South Carolina and now narrow wins over Kent State and Missouri. So do you trust them to play over the competition of Auburn when that hasn’t been what the Bulldogs are doing?

Not against freshman quarterback Robby Ashford, who moved the ball well against LSU last week, and he will do the same at Georgia. Take Auburn to cover.

No. 8 Tennessee (-2.5) at No. 25 LSU

New to the Top-25 is LSU after their comeback win over Auburn, and the Football Power Index lists the Tigers as a top-10 team overall. The AP voters clearly lean heavily in favor of Tennessee, ranking them No. 8 in the nation.

The voters are right in this one, and in a shootout, the Vols should win by at least a touchdown, covering the modest 2.5-point spread.

No. 17 TCU at No. 19 Kansas (Over 67.5)

From a projected three wins to a 5-0 start for the Jayhawks has them as one of the better stories of the NCAA football season. But how long can Kansas keep winning?

TCU did hammer Oklahoma, 55-24, but they also struggled with SMU, and it’s probably true that Oklahoma isn’t that good. Kansas is, averaging 38 points per game, just a touchdown behind the Horned Frogs and their 45 points a game.

And that’s what we like – two teams who could both score over 40 points, making OVER 67.5 the preferred NCAA football bet in Lawrence.

No. 11 Utah (-3.5) at No. 18 UCLA

UCLA is 5-0 and now faces what is easily its toughest test of the young season when they host Utah.

The Utes average 42 points per game while giving up just 14.4 points, and that’s the difference here. The Bruins have a great offense, but only a good defense, and Utah will end the UCLA winning streak and cover this NCAA football spread.

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