NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 22, 2022

We went from one team with a clinched playoff berth, to six. We had the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL, and the Bills became a playoff team in the most appropriate possible setting – the snow.

The Jaguars are for real, so are the Lions, and the Patriots suffered a loss we will be talking about for decades.

How can NFL Week 16 possibly top that?

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

It’s hard to know what to make of a division-clinching NFL game that saw the Vikings fall behind 33-0 at halftime, only to have them storm back to win 39-36. The truth is, probably not much. They are neither of those teams and instead somewhere in the middle. And that middle, especially at home, is good enough to beat the Giants by more than a field goal.

New York is probably going to end up in the NFL playoffs, but don’t trust them this week. Give the points and take the Vikings.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

Do not adjust your settings. The Detroit Lions are a good team and a good bet to make the playoffs. They are not in the playoff picture just yet, still a half-game back of the Commanders for the seventh spot. But the Lions have a favorable schedule, beginning with this game at Carolina.

The Lions have won six of their last seven, covering the spread in all seven NFL games, and this week they will make it eight in a row.

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

The 49ers are the champions of the NFC West, and the No. 2 seed in the NFC is still in sight. It may be that it doesn’t really matter who plays quarterback for this team. Jimmy Garoppolo or Brock Purdy, the team hasn’t changed. Outside of Philadelphia, they have been the most consistently good team in the conference.

Washington is currently a playoff team, but they are nowhere close to San Francisco. The 49ers will win this game and cover the spread for the sixth straight NFL game.

Philadelphia Eagles (+6) at Dallas Cowboys

A couple of weeks ago, this was going to be the game of the year. Certainly, it was going to be the game of the year in the NFC East. But the Cowboys’ hopes for the division are holding on by a fingernail after they lost last week to Jacksonville, and now we’re not sure if Jalen Hurts will be able to play.

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni isn’t ruling Hurts out, but he is preparing Gardner Minshew just in case. And even if Minshew starts, we still like the Eagles to cover.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 16 Betting Picks

NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on August 10, 2022

If you are an experienced NFL bettor, you know the disclaimer that follows. This is the NFL preseason.

There used to be a time when starters would actually play as much as a full quarter of football, or even more. Those days, however, are over. Most of the veteran stars will not see the field in this first week of full preseason play, and perhaps even any of the preseason.

That makes it tough to make accurate picks, which is both good and bad. Bad, because a lot of wagers are just guesses in the NFL preseason. But good, in that the lines bookmakers post are also largely guesses, and that makes for some exploitable point spreads.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – Thursday

It is the most bizarre streak in the history of the NFL. The Ravens have won 20 consecutive NFL preseason football games, and under head coach John Harbaugh they are 12-1 against the spread in the opening week of the preseason.

It’s nuts, winning that many consecutive games you aren’t really even trying to win. But at this point, the Ravens are trying to win, hoping to keep the streak alive. It will be fun to watch Malik Willis play for the Titans in this one but bet on the Ravens to cover the spread.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (+1.5) – Friday

The pick of the Ravens aside, it generally is more profitable to pick underdogs in the preseason. Underdogs have covered the spread 54.2% of the time over the previous two seasons.

Here we have a home dog, and one who is the subject of HBO’s Hard Knocks, which makes us like the Lions even more. Last year’s Hard Knocks team was the Indianapolis Colts, and they won all three of their NFL preseason games.

Go with home dog Lions to cover.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-1) – Friday

The 49ers, with a new young quarterback, will play Trey Lance in their first and third preseason games. They are also expected to play several other starters along with Lance.

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t appeared in an NFL preseason game since 2018, and he won’t be in the field on Friday in San Francisco. For that reason, plus the Packers having to travel, we like the 49ers to cover this nominal point spread.

NFL Preseason

Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (Under 30) – Saturday

Rams coach Sean McVay and Chargers coach Brandon Staley hate the NFL preseason. Their only goal in preseason games is to get them over as quickly as possible. In 2021 the Rams scored 6, 16, and 12 points. The Chargers scored 13, 10, and 0. And when they played head-to-head, the final score was 13-6.

It would be a shock if these teams go over 30 total points. For these two teams, hammer that under.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks

NFL Week 11 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on November 17, 2021

Week 10 was the week of blowouts, with six wins by 20 points or more and another two wins by 17 points. Which point spreads are safe for NFL Week 11?

Detroit Lions (+10) at Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb is expected back for the Browns running game, while the status for Kareem Hunt remains unclear. But to be fair, D’Ernest Johnson had 157 total yards in their absence on Sunday, and the Browns still got blown out.

Getting their running backs healthy won’t help much. The Cleveland defense is incredibly disappointing, and Baker Mayfield continues to rack up the injuries and below-average performances.

Detroit, on the other hand, is more competitive than not. In two of the three games in which they have been at least a touchdown underdog, they have covered the spread. They lost to the Ravens by two, the Rams by nine, the Vikings by two, and they tied the Steelers.

The Browns will win on Sunday, but the Lions keep the final score to within one touchdown.

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Panthers fans were desperate to welcome back Christian McCaffrey throughout the month of October. That’s gone well, with 257 total yards for McCaffrey in the last two weeks.

Unexpectedly, however, was the welcoming back of Cam Newton. The last time these two played significant time together, the Panthers had a top-10 offense.

The McCaffrey-Newton combo isn’t going to become top-10 this season, but a bit of offensive resurgence isn’t unexpected. And when you consider how the Carolina defense is playing, don’t be surprised if the Panthers make the playoffs.

NFL Week 11 Betting Picks

Washington is coming off a huge win, but a big loss of Chase Young to a torn ACL. CMC has a big day against WFT, and the Panthers cover this spread.

New York Giants (+11.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes, Tom Brady is angry after two straight losses, and he wants to take out his frustrations on the next opponent. Yes, it was the Giants who beat Brady twice in the Super Bowl, and he always enjoys beating them. But no, the issues with the Bucs will not be solved by the will of Tom Brady.

A very limited Washington offense just drove the ball 80 yards on 19 plays to seal the win over the Bucs. Brady can’t cover for that. Richard Sherman is now out with a calf injury, and it’s unclear when he might return. Vita Vea will also be out of the game because of an injury.

The wide receivers are banged up, the defense is short-handed, and the Giants will go into Tampa Bay and cover the spread. Take the points and New York.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 11 Betting Picks

NFL Week 6 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on October 14, 2021

We are starting to see the cream of the crop rise to the top, while other teams are seeing a once-promising season begin to slip away. Even with an extra week on the schedule, there are a number of great and important matchups in Week 6. Check out our NFL Week 6 Betting Picks below!

Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at New York Giants

The Rams are 4-1 and just a game behind the first-place Cardinals. But if L.A. wants to catch Arizona, to whom they are already behind in the tiebreaker, they must win all the games they are supposed to win. That includes this week at the Giants, who are suddenly one of the most injured teams in the NFC.

Saquon Barkley is out with a sprained ankle, which is a blow considering how he was beginning to look like his old self after last year’s ACL tear. Quarterback Daniel Jones is in the NFL’s concussion protocol, and he is a big question mark for Sunday.

All of that is to say, look for the Rams to roll this week and win by two touchdowns.

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-3)

This is perhaps the game of the week, as the unbeaten Cardinals look to stay ahead of the Rams, and the Browns look to chase down the rolling Ravens.

The Cardinals aren’t just a great offensive team, although they are that. They have also played really good defense this year – except when it comes to stopping the run. The Cardinals rank 28th in rushing defense, while the Browns rank first in rushing offense.

That formula spells doom for the Cardinals’ unbeaten streak.

NFL Week 6 Betting PicksCleveland runs wild on Sunday, controls the tempo of this game, and covers the three-point spread.

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (+3.5)

Even if you’re not a Lions fan, it has been painful to watch what has happened to them this season. A record-setting field goal that was just inches from being short beat them. Then last week, there was an incredible fourth quarterback comeback that featured a strip fumble to keep the Lions’ offense alive, then a gutsy two-point conversion call with 37 seconds on the clock to take the lead, but it was all undone by a 54-yard field goal to beat them.

If you saw the heartfelt and tear-fill postgame press conference by head coach Dan Campbell, it’s impossible not to root for this team.

At some point, they are going to get over the hump. It may not come this week against the Bengals. Detroit may fall to 0-6. But this team plays with heart, and they won’t lose by more than a field goal to Cincinnati. Take the Lions to cover.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 6 Betting Picks