NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 5, 2022

The Bills are back in the driver’s seat in the AFC, and the Eagles have strapped themselves even tighter to the seat in the NFC. As the playoff picture begins to take shape, and some teams rise, and other teams fall, we have a great slate of games to wager for NFL Week 14.

New York Jets (+9) at Buffalo Bills

This is not a bet against Buffalo winning this NFL game. They are better than the Jets, and they are at home. But New York defensively matches up well with the Bills, as evidenced by their earlier win in New York, and they will keep this game close.

The Bills win, but they’ve only covered two of their last six-point spreads, and they won’t do it here, either.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Tennessee has lost two straight games, and a lot of bettors are jumping off the bandwagon. Don’t you join them. These two losses have come against the Bengals and Eagles – two teams at the height of their powers – and before that, the Titans had covered eight consecutive point spreads.

Trevor Lawrence struggled against a bad Detroit defense, and he will struggle on the road in Tennessee. Look for the Titans to win by six or seven points and cover this spread.

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

On December 27th, 1999, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was born. Five days later, at the Orange Bowl, Tom Brady played his final game at the University of Michigan before entering the NFL. On Sunday, they will be starting for two of the four first-place teams in the NFC.

Purdy has the good fortune of having better weapons around him, a better offensive line, and a much better defense, playing some of the best football in the NFL.

The 49ers lost their second-half shutout streak, but it was just a touchdown to a very good Miami offense. This is a bad Tampa Bay offense, and the better bet is on Purdy and the Niners to cover.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (OVER 52.0)

The Dolphins are coming off a strange loss. They averaged 6.8 yards per play for the game, but they were just 0-for-7 on third downs. It’s incredible yardage efficiency, undone by a terrible conversion rate that had them running 34 fewer plays than San Francisco, and scoring 16 fewer points.

L.A.’s defense is not good, and the Dolphins should get back on track. The Chargers should also find success downfield, making the OVER of 52.0 the best play of this game.

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NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on August 10, 2022

If you are an experienced NFL bettor, you know the disclaimer that follows. This is the NFL preseason.

There used to be a time when starters would actually play as much as a full quarter of football, or even more. Those days, however, are over. Most of the veteran stars will not see the field in this first week of full preseason play, and perhaps even any of the preseason.

That makes it tough to make accurate picks, which is both good and bad. Bad, because a lot of wagers are just guesses in the NFL preseason. But good, in that the lines bookmakers post are also largely guesses, and that makes for some exploitable point spreads.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – Thursday

It is the most bizarre streak in the history of the NFL. The Ravens have won 20 consecutive NFL preseason football games, and under head coach John Harbaugh they are 12-1 against the spread in the opening week of the preseason.

It’s nuts, winning that many consecutive games you aren’t really even trying to win. But at this point, the Ravens are trying to win, hoping to keep the streak alive. It will be fun to watch Malik Willis play for the Titans in this one but bet on the Ravens to cover the spread.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (+1.5) – Friday

The pick of the Ravens aside, it generally is more profitable to pick underdogs in the preseason. Underdogs have covered the spread 54.2% of the time over the previous two seasons.

Here we have a home dog, and one who is the subject of HBO’s Hard Knocks, which makes us like the Lions even more. Last year’s Hard Knocks team was the Indianapolis Colts, and they won all three of their NFL preseason games.

Go with home dog Lions to cover.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-1) – Friday

The 49ers, with a new young quarterback, will play Trey Lance in their first and third preseason games. They are also expected to play several other starters along with Lance.

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t appeared in an NFL preseason game since 2018, and he won’t be in the field on Friday in San Francisco. For that reason, plus the Packers having to travel, we like the 49ers to cover this nominal point spread.

NFL Preseason

Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (Under 30) – Saturday

Rams coach Sean McVay and Chargers coach Brandon Staley hate the NFL preseason. Their only goal in preseason games is to get them over as quickly as possible. In 2021 the Rams scored 6, 16, and 12 points. The Chargers scored 13, 10, and 0. And when they played head-to-head, the final score was 13-6.

It would be a shock if these teams go over 30 total points. For these two teams, hammer that under.

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NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 23, 2021

Welcome back to our NFL Week 16 betting picks! As we move into the final three weeks of the season, there are two things we’re focused on: Which teams have the most to play for and which teams are best equipped to survive positive COVID tests. Unfortunately, December of 2021 is looking a lot like the 2020 season, and rosters can take unexpected hits at any given moment.

So always check the latest COVID/reserve list before placing your NFL Week 16 betting picks.

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-7)

We expect that Baker Mayfield will be back for the Browns for Saturday’s game in Green Bay. But the Browns are now 7-7 and on playoff life support. The Packers, on the other hand, have control of home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and Aaron Rodgers is playing some of the best football of his life.

The Packers have an extra day of rest, more to play for, and a quarterback looking like a back-to-back MVP. There won’t be a late-game meltdown to blow the point spread like last week at Baltimore. This week Green Bay wins by at least 10 points and covers the spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+10.5)

The old narrative would read like this: Tom Brady is super angry about getting shut out on Sunday night, and like the Hulk, you don’t want to make Tom Brady angry.

That sentiment about Brady is real, but the injuries just suffered by the Bucs offense are also very real and far more relevant. The simple fact is when Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette are not in the lineup, this offense struggles. Remove Mike Evans, who we won’t know about until closer to kick-off, and points will be at a premium.

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

The Panthers have a good defense, and they will be able to slow an already slowed Tampa Bay offense enough to keep the final score to within 10 points. The Bucs will win but take the Panthers and the points.

Los Angeles Chargers (-9) at Houston Texans

Another team that’s angry heading into Week 16 is the Los Angeles Chargers, who are just a fourth-down conversion away from being in the first place. Instead, they are most likely going to finish no better than second place, leaving them in the jumbled mess of the AFC wild-card race.

Winning at Houston keeps the Chargers clear of the teams currently out of the playoffs, like Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and helps them keep pace with the Colts and Bills. Winning big at Houston will help soothe the soul after losing in overtime to the Chiefs, and that is what will happen.

Take the Chargers and give the points.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 16 Betting Picks

NFL Week 9 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on November 3, 2021

When the dust settles on Monday night, we will officially be halfway done with the regular season. So let’s end the first half on a high note and hit on all of these bets for NFL Week 9.

New England Patriots (-4) at Carolina Panthers

The Patriots had been getting close, with almost victories against both the Buccaneers and the Cowboys. But little things were getting in the way, and we weren’t quite sure if they could figure out how to fix them.

Going into Los Angeles, beating the Chargers, and making Justin Herbert look nothing more than average is an excellent start. And coming on the heels of a 41-point drubbing of the Jets isn’t bad either.

The tale of the tape is this: Mac Jones is better than Sam Darnold, and as good as Carolina’s defense has played, New England’s is playing even better. Matt Rhule is also a good head coach, but Bill Belichick is still the master.

Patriots win this game by at least a touchdown. Take the Pats and lay the points.

Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

A two-game skid sandwiched around the bye week is not how the Chargers envisioned ending the month of October. They’ve gone from first place in the AFC West to fighting for the wild card lives. But there is simply too much talent on this team to believe this kind of play continues.

The losses to the Ravens and Patriots were bad, but the Eagles are also bad – not including their demolition of the Lions last week. Prior to the skid, the Chargers had covered three consecutive point spreads. Remove the Lions from the equation, and the Eagles have covered just three of seven games.

L.A. wins at Philadelphia by at least a touchdown.

NFL Week 9 Betting Picks

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

Welcome to a world in which we expect the Bengals to win football games. Such is life when you have weapons like Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon.

It’s because of this new world that we look at what happened to the Bengals last week against the Jets as an aberration and not a trend. The Titans lost to the Jets and have won four straight since. Cincinnati should also bounce back in a similar fashion, beginning this weekend against their Ohio rival.

Gone are the good feelings about last year’s playoff win over the Steelers. Last Sunday against Pittsburgh, it felt like the same old Browns. Cleveland is limited by injuries, and now Odell Beckham, Jr’s father, is going after Baker Mayfield on social media. It’s not going to help, either OBJ’s numbers or Mayfield’s play.

Cincinnati is simply the better team, and they will win on Sunday by at least a field goal.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 9 Betting Picks