Kyle Larson Archives

Final NASCAR Playoff Elimination Race at Martinsville

by WagerHome Blog on October 25, 2023

You can be forgiven if you haven’t been thinking about NASCAR. This week, and for the only full week of the year, we have the NFL and college football, the beginnings of the NBA and NHL seasons, and the Major League Baseball postseason.

But the most exciting event of all this weekend might be the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville. We have half of the Cup Series Championship 4, and the other half will be decided over 500 laps at the shortest track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, Martinsville Speedway.

NASCAR Odds to Win Xfinity 500

Denny Hamlin (+275)
Kyle Larson (+700)
William Byron (+750)
Brad Keselowski (+850)
Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Joey Logano (+1400)
Tyler Reddick (+1500)
Kevin Harvick (+1800)
Kyle Busch (+1900)

Kyle Larson was a winner at Martinsville in April, and a win here this week would build some big momentum for him going to Phoenix in a week. Although he’s already in the Championship 4 because of his win at Las Vegas two weekends ago, and his incentives to race hard are a little less.

The other driver in the Championship 4 is Christopher Bell, who won last week at Homestead. He is just outside the top 10 for this race at +2000 to win.

Denny Hamlin is the NASCAR favorite this weekend on the strength of his five career victories at Martinsville. In all likelihood, he will need to win in order to race with the championship on the line next week in Phoenix. He’s down by 17 points, and making up that difference would require some bad runs from the drivers he’s competing with.

William Byron is at +750 to win this week, and he’s in a good position to qualify for next week. He doesn’t have to worry about anyone else. If he gets 36 points this weekend, something he has done in three of his last five races at Martinsville, he is automatically in the Championship 4.

Ryan Blaney is also like Byron in that as long as no one below him wins the race, and he himself runs well, he’ll be in. He has picked up at least 42 points in seven of his last nine starts at Martinsville, and if he repeats that on Sunday, he’s likely in.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Winning at Martinsville is a big prize, but at this time of year, it’s simply a means of getting to the real prize, next week’s NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix International Raceway.

The eight NASCAR drivers still in the race for the championship this year are Bell and Larson (in the Championship 4), Byron and Blaney (currently third and fourth), and Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Hamlin, and Chris Buescher.

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Crayon 301 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 13, 2023

This week, we are in for the Crayon 301. One of the best parts about NASCAR racing is the variety. We had a street race in Chicago, last week the drivers were in the rain doing pack racing in Atlanta, and now we’re up north for some short and flat racing in New Hampshire.

You must be able to handle your car in all types of conditions if you are going to come through the Cup Series season as the champion.

Favorites to Win Crayon 301

Martin Truex Jr. (+650)
Christopher Bell (+650)
Kyle Larson (+850)
Denny Hamlin (+850)
William Byron (+1100)
Kyle Busch (+1100)
Kevin Harvick (+1100)
Chase Elliott (+1100)
Ryan Blaney (+1400)
Joey Logano (+1400)

Martin Truex Jr. and Christopher Bell are co-favorites at +650, and both have had a good recent run on this track. Since 2020 Truex has two top-five finishes in three starts and has led for a total of 172 laps over those three races.

Bell has two top-five finishes in three races, including a win here last July. Earlier this season at the short track in Richmond, Bell finished fourth. He was second at Richmond last summer.

Kyle Larson also likes short tracks. He won at Richmond back in April and finished in fifth place there last year. Phoenix is also short and flat, and since 2020 he has a win and two other top-five finishes there. Larson has never won at New Hampshire, but three separate times he has been the runner-up.

William Byron is coming off a win in Atlanta, he is the current Cup leader, and he is bunched with three other drivers at +1100. In five starts at New Hampshire, he has never cracked the top 10, but he had a third-place finish at Richmond last year, and this year he led there for 117 laps.

He was the winner at Phoenix in March, one of his four wins this season, and that could be a sign he’s ready to be in the mix this weekend.

Best Crayon 301 Bet Outside the Top 10

Not listed above is Brad Keselowski, but he really should be on your Crayon 301 betting radar. He’s a two-time winner at New Hampshire, with nine top-five finishes and an average finish since 2020 of third place.

Best of all, he is paying +1800 to win and +250 to finish in the top-five. He’s been 50/50 on top-five finishes over his last eight races here, so +250 is excellent value.

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Coca-Cola 600 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on May 24, 2023

After taking the week off in the points race, the NASCAR Cup Series gets back to full action this Memorial Day Weekend at the Coca-Cola 600, the third of the four races in NASCAR that make up the Grand Slam.

However, even though no points were at stake, don’t ignore last week’s results. It was another Kyle Larson win at the All-Star Race, a win that didn’t net him any points, but it did result in a $1 million winner’s check. It also points to his return to his 2021 form, when he won the Cup Series and the Coca-Cola 600.

Not surprisingly, for this weekend’s race in Charlotte, he is the Coca-Cola 600 favorite.

Favorites to Win Coca-Cola 600

Kyle Larson (+450)
William Byron (+550)
Denny Hamlin (+650)
Martin Truex Jr. (+850)
Chase Elliott (+900)
Ross Chastain (+1100)
Kyle Busch (+1100)
Christopher Bell (+1100)
Tyler Reddick (+1600)
Kevin Harvick (+1800)
Bubba Wallace (+1800)

Kyle Larson has three wins this season after crossing the finish line first just three times in all of 2022. He finished seventh in the standings last year and is only 10th at the moment. But his racing of late points to a surging second half for Larson and a possible return to the top. A win this week would go a long way to making that happen.

William Byron is fifth in the Cup Series standings, he’s running with the second shortest odds here, and he’s just two weeks removed from a win at Darlington. That was his third of three straight top-five finishes. He also has wins in Phoenix and Las Vegas and is in great shape heading into Charlotte.

Denny Hamlin is the defending champion at this race, and a repeat win here would move him into the top three in the Cup Series standings. He won at Kansas three weeks ago, and he has two other top-five finishes over the last six weeks.

Kevin Harvick is down at the bottom of the top 10, but he’s been one of the most successful drivers at Charlotte in recent years. He hasn’t won here since 2018, but last year he finished third, and in each of the previous five races at Charlotte, he finished in the top 10.

Brad Keselowski is a longshot at +4000, but when he has actually finished the race at Charlotte, his last three results are 11th, seventh, and first. Two weeks ago at Darlington, Keselowski finished fourth. That was his third top-five finish of the season.

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Goodyear 400 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on May 11, 2023

It’s Mother’s Day at Darlington, as the Cup Series makes its annual regular season trip to the South Carolina raceway for the Goodyear 400. The Cup Series will return to this track in September when the playoffs begin.

Last week we were in Kansas, where Denny Hamlin was the big winner. And now he goes for back-to-back wins at a track that he has dominated in recent years. He won here in 2017, 2020, and 2021, and last year he was the runner-up.

Red-hot from last week and now racing at a place where he has been at his best has Hamlin as a co-favorite heading into the weekend.

Favorites to Win Goodyear 400

Denny Hamlin (+550)
Kyle Larson (+550)
Martin Truex Jr. (+700)
Tyler Reddick (+850)
William Byron (+900)
Kyle Busch (+900)
Christopher Bell (+1000)
Ross Chastain (+1100)
Kevin Harvick (+1200)
Joey Logano (+1200)
Chase Elliott (+1200)

Kyle Larson was the runner-up to Hamlin last week, rebounding from back-to-back disappointments at Talladega and Dover. Larson now has five top-five finishes this season. Larson has never won at Darlington, and last year in this race, he finished 36th.

Martin Truex won the Goodyear 400 in 2021, and last year he led for 48 laps before a faulty water pump took him out of the race. He has led at least one lap in his last six races at Darlington. This season he has finished in the top 10 in six of his last seven races.

Tyler Reddick has never won here, but in the two races at Darlington in 2022, he finished second and third. And right behind him on the odds board is one the hottest drivers in the Cup Series, William Byron. He was third last week in Kansas, fourth in Dover, and seventh at Talladega.

Also, keep your eye on the trio of drivers paying +1200, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott.

Harvick had a mechanical issue last year that kept him from finishing. But in the 13 races at Darlington before that, he didn’t finish worse than ninth, and 11 times he was in the top five.

Logano won here last May, finished fourth in the playoff race in September, and has four other top-five finishes at Darlington since 2015. Elliott doesn’t have any wins at Darlington, but last May, he finished fifth, and in 2021 he was seventh.

Well, down the Goodyear 400 odds board is Erik Jones, paying +6500. He’s only finished in the top 10 in two of 12 races this season, but Darlington is his bread and butter. It’s the only track where he has won multiple times, which includes last September’s win over the playoff field.

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Cook Out Southern 500 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 31, 2022

With the regular season ending in the rain at Daytona, and a surprise victory by Austin Dillon, NASCAR moves on to the playoffs and the round of 16 in Darlington for the Cook Out Southern 500.

By virtue of his rain-delayed win, in which he had to retake the lead in the final three laps, Dillon is in the final field of 16. Ryan Blaney also got in by finishing the race in 15th place – the lone driver in the playoffs who did not record a victory this season.

Martin Truex Jr. lost out on that final spot, and he is now racing the rest of the season with no chance to win a championship.

Favorites to Win Cook Out Southern 500

Kyle Larson (+600)
Denny Hamlin (+700)
Chase Elliott (+800)
Joey Logano (+800)
Ross Chastain (+800)
Tyler Reddick (+800)
Kyle Busch (+900)
Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)
Ryan Blaney (+1400)
William Byron (+1400)

Leading the pack is Kyle Larson, and why not. He is the defending Cup Series champion, and in his last four Cook Out Southern 500 races at Darlington, he has three top-five finishes. His engine let him down at Daytona last week, but he was the winner the week before at Watkins Glen, giving him ten top-five finishes in 2022.

Since 2019 Denny Hamlin has raced at Darlington seven times, and he has two wins and four top-five finishes, which includes his win at Cook Out Southern 500 last year. He also didn’t finish last week’s race at Daytona, but he began the month of August with a third-place finish in Michigan and a fourth-place finish in Richmond.

Chase Elliott is your overall points leader, and he’s been so good all season that it seems like it’s been ages since he last won. In reality, it was only July 24th when he won at Pocono. He had two top-five finishes in August, but he’s only third on the Cook Out Southern 500 odds board because of an up-and-down history at Darlington.

Elliott finished fifth here back in May, but at Cook Out Southern 500 a year ago, he was 31st. He was 20th at this race in 2020 and 19th in 2019.

The last of the favorites worth an extra look is Joey Logano, who finished the regular season just 15 points behind Elliott. And unlike the man he has been chasing all season, he does have a good history at Darlington. He won here in May, was eighth last September, and he has four other top-five finishes in his career on this track at the Cook Out Southern 500.

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Verizon 200 at The Brickyard 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 27, 2022

We are back with another NASCAR preview, this time for the Verizon 200 at The Brickyard.

Even when he doesn’t win, Chase Elliott is winning this season. That is how good he has been in 2022. He can finish third in a race, as he did at Pocono, and still come out on top, as he did due to two post-race disqualifications.

Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch failed their post-race inspections, and Hamlin became the first Cup race winner to be stripped of a win since 1960.

For Elliott and the rest of the drivers, hopefully, this week’s trip to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway provides cleaner racing and a less controversial finish.

Favorites to Win Verizon 200 at The Brickyard

Chase Elliott (+450)
Kyle Larson (+700)
Ross Chastain (+700)
Daniel Suarez (+1000)
Tyler Reddick (+1000)
Austin Cindric (+1400)
Chase Briscoe (+1600)
Kyle Busch (+1600)
A.J. Allmendinger (+1800)
Martin Truex Jr. (+1800)
Ryan Blaney (+1800)

It is a road course, and if he wasn’t the hottest driver on the circuit, he still might be the heavy favorite. But with four wins on the season and a commanding lead in the series standings, this is Chase Elliott’s race to lose. Elliott has seven wins in 22 career road course races and 13 top-five finishes.

If it’s not going to be Elliott, Kyle Larson is a solid plan B. He’s not had nearly the year in 2022 that he had in 2021, but he did just finish fifth at Pocono last week, and he has a good history at Indy, finishing third at this race last year.

The other driver of the big-three Verizon 200 favorites this week is Ross Chastain. He’s been the most consistent all year, with ten top-five finishes and 14 top-10s.

He wrecked out of last week’s race, and in this event last year, he barely cracked the top 30. But considering how well he is driving in 2022, he should always be on your radar.

Top Value Plays for Verizon 200 at The Brickyard

A.J. Allmendinger (+1800) is on your favorites board, so he isn’t a long shot. But he is the defending champion at this event, and he’s paying nearly 4.5x more than the favorite Elliott.

He’s a road course specialist, and you don’t see him at too many races, but coupled with his win last year and a top-10 at Road America on July 3 of this year, give him a look.

Kevin Harvick (+2800) should also be in consideration at the Verizon 200. He won at Indy in 2020, when it was the Brickyard 400, and that was his second straight victory here. He has the history at this venue, plus he’s had a good season on road courses – finishing fourth in Sonoma and 10th at Road America.

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Kwik Trip 250 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on June 29, 2022

Another week of racing, and another week of racing on a road course for the drivers of NASCAR. And another week of potential surprises at the Kwik Trip 250! The usual road course suspects, like Ryan Blainey and Martin Truex Jr, have not won on a road course this year, while Christopher Bell and Daniel Suarez have.

That’s not to say that there isn’t some predictability when it comes to road course racing anymore. The king of the road, Chase Elliott, is still the man to beat this weekend at the Kwik Trip 250.

Favorites to Win Kwik Trip 250

Chase Elliott (+500)
Kyle Larson (+600)
Ross Chastain (+800)
Kyle Busch (+900)
Ryan Blainey (+1200)
Martin Truex Jr. (+1200)
Denny Hamlin (+1200)
Christopher Bell (+1500)
Austin Cindric (+1500)
Joey Logano (+1500)

Elliott hasn’t won a road course race this season, finishing fourth at COTA in March and eighth at Sonoma three weeks ago. But he does have past wins at Circuit of the Americas, he has two wins this season, and he is the current Cup Series leader with a 30-point lead over Ross Chastain.

Kyle Larson hasn’t had the repeat of his dominant 2021, and he hasn’t been good on road courses in 2022. He finished 15th at Sonoma after starting the race in the first position.

He was 29th at COTA back in March. But Larson is a champion coming off a fourth-place finish in Nashville, and he is still a worthy Kwik Trip 250 second pick.

Ross Chastain already has a win at COTA this season, giving him a leg up this weekend in at least course confidence. But he also won at Talladega, and in three races in June, he has finishes of eighth, seventh, and fifth last week. Chastain has the third shortest odds this week, and an argument can be made that he should be the favorite.

Longer Shots to Consider at Kwik Trip 250

Tyler Reddick (+2500) was a washout at Sonoma three weeks ago, but he finished top-five at COTA in March, which was his fifth top-five finish in his previous ten road course starts. A year ago at COTA, he also finished ninth.

Kurt Busch (+3100) would like to forget the two races this season on road courses. He finished 32nd in COTA in March and 18th at Sonoma in June. But last year at Sonoma, he finished sixth, one of four top-10 finishes on road courses last season.

Chris Buescher (+3500) is only 22nd in the standings, he has just two top-five finishes this season, and he hasn’t won a race since 2016. But, and this is a big but, he nearly won at Sonoma three weeks ago, losing by less than four seconds, and coming after, he missed a week with COVID.

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Save Mart 350 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on June 8, 2022

It is time for Save Mart 350! It’s road racing for NASCAR this week in Sonoma, California, and that means only one thing – Chase Elliott is at the top of the odds board as the undisputed king of the road.

But, and this is a big but, Sonoma races more like Circuit of the Americas than any other track, and that race this year was won by underdog Ross Chastain.

So while we know Elliott will be in the mix, anything can happen on this change of pace course.

Favorites to Win Save Mart 350

Chase Elliott (+450)
Kyle Larson (+500)
Martin Truex Jr. (+850)
Ross Chastain (+1000)
Kyle Busch (+1000)
Ryan Blaney (+1400)
A.J. Allmendinger (+1400)
Austin Cindric (+1400)
Joey Logano (+1600)
Chase Briscoe (+1600)
Denny Hamlin (+1600)

No surprise that Chase Elliott is at the top of the board. He has seven wins on road courses since 2016, and during a stretch that went from 2019 to 2021, he won six of eight races.

It is worth noting; however, that as dominant as Elliott is on the road courses, he hasn’t been that way in Sonoma. He did have a second-place finish a year ago at Save Mart 350, but that is his career-best.

In the race that saw Elliott finish in second place at Sonoma in 2021, the man who finished first was Kyle Larson – the Cup champion last year. That was his second top-10 finish at Sonoma and only his second. He doesn’t have a long history of success at Sonoma, but following the win here in 2021, Larson also won at Watkins Glen two months later, and then he won at Charlotte Roval in October.

Ross Chastain did have that surprise win at COTA in March, but he had another top-five finish at COTA in 2021. Plus, when racing at Sonoma that same year, he came in seventh. Although in his previous race at Sonoma in 2019, he finished 33rd.

Longer Odds to Consider

William Byron is paying +2200 to take the W at the Save Mart 350, which is a lot for a guy who currently ranks third in the overall standings and has two checkered flags on this season. His last couple of races have been rough – he hasn’t been in the top-10 since April – but overall, he has raced well this season, and he does have five career top-10 finishes on road courses.

A real longshot to consider is Michael McDowell, paying +10000. He had a pair of top-10 road course finishes in 2021, and in 15 starts this season, he has five top-five finishes.

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Coca-Cola 600 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on May 25, 2022

After a weekend All-Star getaway that saw Ryan Blaney take home the checkered flag, the Cup Series gets back to business this weekend with its longest race of the season, the Coca-Cola 600.

Since 1960 NASCAR has been racing at Charlotte Motor Speedway and at 600 miles. And not only is this race unique on the circuit for its distance, but it’s also the only race that begins in the sunlight and ends under the lights at night.

Favorites to Win Coca-Cola 600

Kyle Larson (+450)
Kyle Busch (+650)
Chase Elliott (+750)
Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
Ryan Blaney (+1000)
William Byron (+1000)
Denny Hamlin (+1000)
Ross Chastain (+1000)
Tyler Reddick (+1400)
Christopher Bell (+1500)

Kyle Larson won this race last year, the first of three straight wins that ended up catapulting him to the Cup Series championship. He opened the week tied with Kyle Busch atop the favorites board but has since put a little space between himself and Busch.

Kyle Busch was third two weeks ago in Kansas, seventh in Dover, and in April, he had four starts, four top-10 finishes, and a win at Bristol. At the Coca-Cola 600 race last year, Busch finished third. He was fourth in 2020, third in 2019, and he was the winner in 2018.

Even after his 29th place finish in Kansas, Chase Elliott remains the season’s overall points leader. Prior to that race, he was fifth at Darlington, the winner at Dover and seventh at Talladega. At the Coca-Cola 600, Elliott finished as the runner-up in each of the previous two years.

Best Value Bets

Kevin Harvick, paying +3000, is still without a win in 2022, and he definitely isn’t an obvious choice in this one. But he races well at Charlotte, finishing in the top-10 in each of his last two starts here. And while Harvick hasn’t won this season, he has been racing well of late.

He was fourth at Dover three weeks ago, the third of three straight top-10 finishes. He also has three other top-10s this season and runner-up at Richmond.

A longer shot that might be worth considering is Ricky Stenhouse Jr, paying +6000. He’s also without a win in 2022, but like Harvick, he has been close. He has four top-10 finishes this season, with three of them coming in his last five starts.

At this race in 2020, he finished fourth, improving on his fifth-place finish in 2019. He’s finished in the top-10 at Charlotte three times and in the top-20 a total of 12 times.

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NASCAR at Kansas Speedway Betting Preview

NASCAR at Kansas Speedway 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on May 11, 2022

In the final race before NASCAR has its all-star break, the drivers make their annual stop at the Kansas Speedway on the Kansas side of Kansas City.

Sadly the name Buschy McBusch Race, as it was known for the regular-season race here in 2021, has been replaced. Now the race in Kansas is known as the AdventHealth 400. That’s 400.5 total miles driven and 267 laps around the tri-oval.

Favorite to Win the NASCAR AdventHealth 400

Kyle Larson (+700)
Kyle Busch (+700)
Denny Hamlin (+700)
Chase Elliott (+700)
William Byron (+1000)
Ross Chastain (+1000)
Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)
Joey Logano (+1200)
Ryan Blaney (+1400)
Tyler Reddick (+1600)
Alex Bowman (+1600)

The four drivers bunched at the top are likely to separate on the odds board before this race is run this weekend, so keep an eye on that before you place any NASCAR bets.

However, a bet on Denny Hamlin, no matter the number, is going to be a good one. He won on this track in 2019 and 2020, and he finished fifth in last year’s playoff race that was held here.

It is worth noting that in that playoff race last October, it was Kyle Larson taking the checkered flag. However, that is his one and only win in Kansas.

He finished third and fourth in the two races here in 2018, but in last year’s regular-season race, he finished 19th. He was 14th in the race before that.

Chase Elliott is also a worthy favorite. He won here in 2018 and has finished fourth, second, sixth, fifth, and second since that race.

Best Value Bets

If you’re looking to take a chance on a longshot, think about Austin Cindric at +6000. It’s a hefty payday if it hits, and here’s why it might: The young driver remains largely unknown, except on intermediate NASCAR tracks like the one in Kansas.

He’s run five races on this type of track, and it’s been the type where he shows the most improvement from starting position to finishing position.

Like last year at Kansas, when he began 38th but finished 22nd. He has shown the ability to gain on the field, and as his starting positions continue to improve, so will his finishes.

Also at +6000 is Aric Almirola, who has never won in Kansas, but he does have seven top-10 finishes here. He’s also had four top-10 finishes this NASCAR season, including Martinsville, Las Vegas, California, and Daytona.

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NASCAR Odds to Win Xfinity 500

NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Crayon 301

Best Crayon 301 Bet Outside the Top 10

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Coca-Cola 600

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Goodyear 400

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Cook Out Southern 500

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Verizon 200 at The Brickyard

Top Value Plays for Verizon 200 at The Brickyard

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Kwik Trip 250

Longer Shots to Consider at Kwik Trip 250

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Save Mart 350

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