Kentucky Derby Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on May 2, 2023

What a Saturday to be a king. In London King Charles III gets his crown, and the sport of kings takes center stage on this side of the Pond with the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby. Instead of a crown, the winner at Churchill Downs gets a blanket of roses, and horse racing immortality.

Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds

1. Hit Show (30-1)
2. Verifying (15-1)
3. Two Phil’s (12-1)
4. Confidence Game (20-1)
5. Tapit Trice (5-1)
6. Kingsbarns (12-1)
7. Reincarnate (50-1)
8. Mage (15-1)
9. Skinner (20-1)
10. Practical Move (10-1)
11. Disarm (30-1)
12. Jace’s Road (15-1)
13. Sun Thunder (50-1)
14. Angel of Empire (8-1)
15. Forte (3-1)
16. Raise Cain (50-1)
17. Derma Sotogake (8-1)
18. Rocket Can (30-1)
19. Lord Miles (30-1)
20. Continuar (50-1)

Trainer Todd Pletcher has three horses at this year’s Kentucky Derby. Two of them are running alongside each other, with Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns breaking from the fifth and sixth starting gates. His highest-rated horse, and the highest-rated in the field, is Forte at 3-1 and out the 15th gate.

Brad Cox has four horses in this year’s Derby. Breaking next to Forte is Angel of Empire at 8-1. Jace’s Road is 15-1 out of the 12th gate, Hit Show is on the rail and running at 30-1, with Verifying next to him at 15-1.

Brad Cox won at Churchill Downs in the controversial 2021 race. That was when Bob Baffert’s Medina Spirit crossed the line first, but was later disqualified, making the Cox-trained Mandaloun the winning horse. Todd Pletcher won the Kentucky Derby in 2017 with Always Dreaming and in 2010 with Super Saver.

Other top horses for this Saturday include Derma Sotogake, where Hidetaka Otonashi looks to become the first Japanese trainer to win the Kentucky Derby. Continuar is also a Japanese horse that has been running in the UAE, trained by Yoshito Yahagi. But he is a much longer shot than Derma Sotogake and Otonashi.

Also keep your eye on Practical Move, the winner at the Santa Anita Derby and trained by Tim Yakteen. As an assistant to Baffert, Yakteen was a part of three Derby winners – Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and War Emblem. Last year and this year, with Baffert on suspension, Yakteen has been minding the barn and running at Churchill Downs on his own.

Of course, remember what happened last year without Baffert in the field. Rich Strike, at 80-1, became the second biggest underdog winner in Derby history. Perhaps one of the longshots in this race can also make it to the wire in first place.

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WagerHome BlogKentucky Derby Betting Preview

Kentucky Derby 2021: Favorites, Darkhorses, and Underdogs

by WagerHome Blog on April 29, 2021

Nothing signals that summer is right around the corner like the May tradition of the Kentucky Derby. So get your mint juleps made, put on your fancy hat, and get ready for the best horse race of the year.

Kentucky Derby Positions and Odds

  1. Known Agenda (6-1)
  2. Like the King (50-1)
  3. Brooklyn Strong (50-1)
  4. Keepmeinmind (50-1)
  5. Sainthood (50-1)
  6. O Besos (20-1)
  7. Mandaloun (15-1)
  8. Medina Spirit (15-1)
  9. Hot Rod Charlie (8-1)
  10. Midnight Bourbon (20-1)
  11. Dynamic One (20-1)
  12. Helium (50-1)
  13. Hidden Stash (50-1)
  14. Essential Quality (2-1)
  15. Rock Your World (5-1)
  16. King Fury (20-1)
  17. Highly Motivated (10-1)
  18. Super Stock (30-1)
  19. Soup and Sandwich (30-1)
  20. Bourbonic (30-1)

Running in the middle from the 14th position is the odds on favorite, Essential Quality. According to the oddsmakers, this is his race to lose. He’s had success at Churchill Downs, with a win at the Blue Grass Stakes and Breeders’ Futurity, and it’s worth noting that the betting favorite has finished either first or second in eight of the last ten Triple Crown races.

Running next to Essential Quality is a turf horse turned dirt, Rock Your World. Suppose you are looking for a favorite that isn’t THE favorite, then you can’t do much better. He ran at the Santa Anita Derby on April 3 and absolutely dominated the field, running from the front the majority of the race and cruising to a pull-away win.Kentucky Derby

Darkhorse Candidates

It is Kentucky, and the mint julep is made with bourbon, so keep an eye on Midnight Bourbon, running at 20-1. He’s looked great in workouts and is being ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith.

Another of the Kentucky whiskey-named horses is Bourbonic, running at 30-1. Posted on the outside, he will be free of traffic, and no doubt trainer Todd Pletcher, a two-time winner at the Derby, will have him ready to run. He also just won the Wood Memorial to begin the month of April at 72-1, so don’t expect Saturday’s odds to bother jockey Kendrick Carmouche.


You never go in expecting a win from the longest of shots, but there are a few that could sneak onto the board.

Paying 50-1, Helium was a victor at the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby back in March. He hasn’t been tested much, but he’s trained by Mark Casse, who always has his horses properly conditioned.

Another Todd Pletcher trained horse is Sainthood, on the board at 50-1. In his most recent race, he finished in second place at the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks but was closing at the finish and showed real promise for the future.

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WagerHome BlogKentucky Derby 2021: Favorites, Darkhorses, and Underdogs

Kentucky Derby Contenders and Long Shots

by WagerHome Blog on April 20, 2021

Back in its familiar place on the calendar on the first Saturday in May, we are getting ready for the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby.

It is now less than two weeks away, which means it’s time for everyone to start thinking about which horses are most likely to win the blanket of roses and which long shots are most able to put money in your pocket.

Kentucky Derby Projected Field

  • Essential Quality (5-2)
  • Hot Rod Charlie (6-1)
  • Medina Spirit (8-1)
  • Rock Your World (8-1)
  • Known Agenda (12-1)
  • Highly Motivated (15-1)
  • Mandaloun (15-1)
  • Midnight Bourbon (15-1)
  • Super Stock (20-1)
  • Bourbonic (30-1)
  • Caddo River (30-1)
  • Dynamic One (30-1)
  • Soup and Sandwich (30-1)
  • O Besos (30-1)
  • Dream Shake (30-1)
  • Helium (50-1)
  • Hidden Stash (50-1)
  • Like the King (50-1)
  • Sainthood (50-1)
  • Get Her Number (50-1)

Essential Quality has all of the essential qualities you look for in a Derby favorite. He was the winner in his Churchill Downs debut and heads into this race undefeated. The one issue with Essential Quality is his trainer, Brad Cox, who has never had a Derby starter, and thus he remains an unknown at this level.

A good number two in the field is Hot Rod Charlie, who won at the Louisiana Derby. Making that win most relevant is the distance, at 1 3/16 mile. That’s a longer win than anyone else in the field, and it sets him up for the 1 1/4 mile at Churchill Downs.

Kentucky Derby Contenders and Long ShotsAnother horse to keep an eye on is Highly Motivated. At 15-1, he is in the long shot territory, but he’s running much better than that. On April 3 at the Blue Grass Stakes, he ran stride-for-stride with Essential Quality before getting beaten at the wire. He also has a victory at the Nyquist Stakes and a third-place at the Gotham Stakes.

Best Long Shot Bets

At 30-1, Midnight Bourbon is an iffy bet to win the race. But he raced to second place behind Hot Rod Charlie at the Louisiana Derby and had a win in January in the Lecomte. Outside of that, he has been consistently competitive and could sneak into the top three at the Derby.

For a long-shot win contender, take a closer look at Dynamic One. Paying 30-1, he won at Aqueduct and nearly won at the Wood Memorial after a strong closing move. In a field with a group of horses that aren’t used to running 1 1/4 miles, look for another strong close from Dynamic One that just might be enough for trainer Todd Pletcher’s third Derby win.

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WagerHome BlogKentucky Derby Contenders and Long Shots