The Fallout From the Aaron Rodgers Injury

by WagerHome Blog on September 12, 2023

It was the most anticipated home opener in the history of the New York Jets. It was the anniversary of 9/11, the Jets were debuting a Hall of Fame quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, who came running out of the tunnel carrying an American flag, and finally, after years of being cursed, the Jets were going to be an elite team.

Then, just four plays into Rodgers’ career in New York, it was over. His Achilles tendon was torn, and his season had ended.

Aaron Rodgers Injury: The Jets Super Bowl Chances

Within minutes of the injury, the futures bet on a Jets run to the Super Bowl dropped from +1800 to +2700. And by the end of the night, as the severity of the injury became more sure, those odds dropped all the way to +5500.

New York still has a great defense, as evidenced by their win on Monday night in spite of the injury, but Zach Wilson doesn’t look any better at quarterback than he has in his previous two seasons. As far as being a Super Bowl contender, this team is done.

The Green Bay Packers Fallout

While the blow to the Jets is obviously the greatest, the injury to Rodgers also affects the Green Bay Packers. In the trade that sent Rodgers to New York, the Packers got back a conditional 2024 draft pick that would become a first-round pick if Rodgers played 65% of the snaps. That is no longer a possibility, so instead of the 2024 pick being a first, it will be a second-round pick.

Green Bay received first- and second-round picks in this past draft, which became defensive end Lukas Van Ness and tight end Luke Musgrave.

The Fallout From the Aaron Rodgers Injury

Monday Night Bettors Revolt

With such a high-profile player leading off the first Monday Night Football game of the season, many sportsbooks offered special proposition bets, boosters, and same-game parlays.

Most of the sportsbooks are refunding the Rodgers specific bets, like overs on passing yards, touchdowns, etc. And if Rodgers was used in a leg of a same-game parlay, those bets are also being refunded. If, however, you bet the under, those are being treated like wins.

FanDuel and Pointsbet did not offer any refunds and were very clear about their posted rules. FanDuel wrote on social media;

“Due to regulatory requirements, all bets will be settled in accordance with our house rules. Unfortunately we will not be offering a bad beat on this occasion.”

Bettors were quick to complain, but FanDuel isn’t budging.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogThe Fallout From the Aaron Rodgers Injury

NFL Preseason Week 1 Kicks Off

by WagerHome Blog on August 10, 2023

Last week’s NFL Hall of Fame Game was just a teaser. An amuse-bouche, if you will. The tiniest of appetizers to get us ready for the smorgasbord of football to come, the 2023 regular season.

That makes this weekend a full trip to the salad bar with all the fixings. We get 16 NFL preseason games, which amounts to 960 minutes of actual game time over the course of the weekend.

Thursday through Sunday is not a national holiday, but it should be.

Top NFL Games of the Weekend

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Following two games on Thursday, our Friday of preseason football begins with the Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals and Jordan Love taking the quarterback reins in Green Bay.

This will be his first start as QB1, and even though you should never get too carried away regarding preseason performances, Packers fans are going to want to be wowed.

New York Giants (-3) at Detroit Lions

There is no sneaking up on anyone this year for either of these teams. The Giants are coming off a playoff berth, and the Lions are the preseason betting favorite to win the NFC North. How will both teams respond with the higher expectations?

We also get to see how the Giants plan to use new tight end Darren Waller and how the Lions are going to feature first-round draft pick Jahmyr Gibbs. All reports out of camp say that Gibbs is the real deal, and if Detroit does make it back to the playoffs, he will be a big reason why.

NFL Preseason Week 1 Kicks Off

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

We’re not expected to see Aaron Rodgers on Saturday in Carolina, but we will get our first look at the No. 1 overall pick, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young.

There will be growing pains. There will be interceptions. There will be bad decisions. A lot. But head coach Frank Reich loves his new quarterback, and the growth Young experiences from this weekend through the end of the season will be worth watching.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

We probably won’t see much of Jimmy Garoppolo this preseason, with the Raiders expected to be cautious with a previously injured foot. But we should see plenty of Trey Lance for the 49ers as Kyle Shanahan and company try to figure out what kind of future he has in San Francisco.

We’ll also see some Sam Darnold and maybe some Brock Purdy, although that is more of a long shot. Whoever plays for San Francisco, everyone will be watching. It’s been a long time since one of the Super Bowl favorites was so unsettled at quarterback.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason Week 1 Kicks Off

NFL Special Props for 2023

by WagerHome Blog on July 21, 2023

NFL training camps opened this week, and by early next week, all 32 teams will be conducting full-squad practices as they get ready for another season of professional football. For us, that means another season of NFL wagers and fun prop bets to get us ready for September’s kickoff.

Justin Fields – Chicago Bears

Bears quarterback Justin Fields is hoping to take another big step this season, and the special props are ready for it.

4,750 combined passing and rushing yards (+150)

This is a lot of total yards for a quarterback, and it would be more than 1,400 above his 2022 output. But he is a special player with an incredibly high ceiling. Have the Bears added enough around him to allow this kind of a leap.

400-plus passing yards in any one game (+225)

This is a bet that is more likely to happen than the season bet above. In a division with the high-scoring Lions and with games against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Cardinals, a one-game shootout where Fields goes crazy isn’t that far-fetched.

New York Jets

We’re going to get a lot of the Jets this season, thanks to the move to New York by Aaron Rodgers. They are going to be this year’s “Hard Knocks” team, and they have some of the most tempting special season props.

Aaron Rodgers: 4000-plus passing yards and Jets make playoffs (+160)

On the surface, this seems like an easy bet. Rodgers has gone over 4,000 yards 10 times in his career and 11 times he’s been to the playoffs. But he was under 4,000 yards in 2022, and the Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2009.

Garrett Wilson: 175-plus receiving yards in any one game (+275)

After winning Rookie of the Year, expectations for Garrett Wilson are off the charts. He’s an incredible talent, and Rodgers will help move him into the class of elite wide receivers.

NFL Special Props for 2023

All of that is true, and what is also true is that 175 yards is a tall order. In 2021 the Rodgers to Davante Adams connections went over 175 only once. It also only happened once in 2020 and once in 2019. Just three times in 108 games together.

Rodgers and Wilson will have many big games together this season, but to go over 175 yards is a tall order and not all that likely to happen.

Dalvin Cook’s Next NFL Team

  • Patriots (+150)
  • Dolphins (+200)
  • Jets (+400)
  • Broncos (+1500)

Dalvin Cook is a 27-year-old four-time Pro Bowler, and he will have a team by the end of training camp. The odds suggest quite strongly that it will be in the AFC East, but not with the Bills, where his brother James plays.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Special Props for 2023

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 5, 2022

The Bills are back in the driver’s seat in the AFC, and the Eagles have strapped themselves even tighter to the seat in the NFC. As the playoff picture begins to take shape, and some teams rise, and other teams fall, we have a great slate of games to wager for NFL Week 14.

New York Jets (+9) at Buffalo Bills

This is not a bet against Buffalo winning this NFL game. They are better than the Jets, and they are at home. But New York defensively matches up well with the Bills, as evidenced by their earlier win in New York, and they will keep this game close.

The Bills win, but they’ve only covered two of their last six-point spreads, and they won’t do it here, either.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Tennessee has lost two straight games, and a lot of bettors are jumping off the bandwagon. Don’t you join them. These two losses have come against the Bengals and Eagles – two teams at the height of their powers – and before that, the Titans had covered eight consecutive point spreads.

Trevor Lawrence struggled against a bad Detroit defense, and he will struggle on the road in Tennessee. Look for the Titans to win by six or seven points and cover this spread.

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

On December 27th, 1999, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was born. Five days later, at the Orange Bowl, Tom Brady played his final game at the University of Michigan before entering the NFL. On Sunday, they will be starting for two of the four first-place teams in the NFC.

Purdy has the good fortune of having better weapons around him, a better offensive line, and a much better defense, playing some of the best football in the NFL.

The 49ers lost their second-half shutout streak, but it was just a touchdown to a very good Miami offense. This is a bad Tampa Bay offense, and the better bet is on Purdy and the Niners to cover.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (OVER 52.0)

The Dolphins are coming off a strange loss. They averaged 6.8 yards per play for the game, but they were just 0-for-7 on third downs. It’s incredible yardage efficiency, undone by a terrible conversion rate that had them running 34 fewer plays than San Francisco, and scoring 16 fewer points.

L.A.’s defense is not good, and the Dolphins should get back on track. The Chargers should also find success downfield, making the OVER of 52.0 the best play of this game.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 14 Betting Picks

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 7, 2021

In Week 13, three AFC teams with playoff hopes lost winnable games at home. The shocking result in the NFC was the Detroit Lions getting their first win against the playoff-hopeful Vikings. So what is going to happen in NFL Week 14?

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns

Yes, the Ravens are coming off a loss at Pittsburgh. Yes, they just lost corner Marlon Humphrey for the season. And yes, Lamar Jackson has the second-most interceptions in the NFL with 13.

But the Browns continue to be one of the most injured teams in the NFL, and no one is sure just how long Baker Mayfield can hold up physically. And these teams just played each other in Week 12, and the Ravens won the game, even with four Jackson interceptions.

Chances of another four interceptions coming gift-wrapped for Cleveland are long, and if the Browns couldn’t win then, why should they be favorites now?

Take the points.

New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+6)

The Jets lost again last week because they are the Jets, but Zach Wilson wasn’t all that bad. It was easily his best game in two months, and it gives New York fans a little hope that this season isn’t a total loss.

The Saints, on the other hand, have to look at 2021 as a total loss. Injuries have killed them, and having no real or clear plan for quarterback succession has left them with a five-game losing streak.

We finally got to see Taysom Hill at QB, and while it started well, it ended rather poorly. His injured finger doesn’t require surgery, but how can New Orleans be almost a touchdown favorite?

The Saints are bad, Hill isn’t healthy, and all other options are horrible. Take the Jets and the points.

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

These are tough times for the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots were supposed to be rebuilding, and the Bills were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender. But on Monday, the Patriots got a big leg up on the race for the AFC East by winning in the snow and wind of Buffalo.

Now, when you face a must-win game to keep pace in the division race, you’re facing the biggest of all thorns in your side, Tom Brady.

The Bills are reeling, and the Buccaneers are rolling. Buffalo is missing their best defensive back, Tre’Davious White, and Brady is playing like the MVP favorite, which he is.

Tampa Bay has won three straight, Buffalo has lost two of three, and the Bucs win this game by at least a touchdown.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 14 Betting Picks