Denny Hamlin Archives

Final NASCAR Playoff Elimination Race at Martinsville

by WagerHome Blog on October 25, 2023

You can be forgiven if you haven’t been thinking about NASCAR. This week, and for the only full week of the year, we have the NFL and college football, the beginnings of the NBA and NHL seasons, and the Major League Baseball postseason.

But the most exciting event of all this weekend might be the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville. We have half of the Cup Series Championship 4, and the other half will be decided over 500 laps at the shortest track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, Martinsville Speedway.

NASCAR Odds to Win Xfinity 500

Denny Hamlin (+275)
Kyle Larson (+700)
William Byron (+750)
Brad Keselowski (+850)
Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Joey Logano (+1400)
Tyler Reddick (+1500)
Kevin Harvick (+1800)
Kyle Busch (+1900)

Kyle Larson was a winner at Martinsville in April, and a win here this week would build some big momentum for him going to Phoenix in a week. Although he’s already in the Championship 4 because of his win at Las Vegas two weekends ago, and his incentives to race hard are a little less.

The other driver in the Championship 4 is Christopher Bell, who won last week at Homestead. He is just outside the top 10 for this race at +2000 to win.

Denny Hamlin is the NASCAR favorite this weekend on the strength of his five career victories at Martinsville. In all likelihood, he will need to win in order to race with the championship on the line next week in Phoenix. He’s down by 17 points, and making up that difference would require some bad runs from the drivers he’s competing with.

William Byron is at +750 to win this week, and he’s in a good position to qualify for next week. He doesn’t have to worry about anyone else. If he gets 36 points this weekend, something he has done in three of his last five races at Martinsville, he is automatically in the Championship 4.

Ryan Blaney is also like Byron in that as long as no one below him wins the race, and he himself runs well, he’ll be in. He has picked up at least 42 points in seven of his last nine starts at Martinsville, and if he repeats that on Sunday, he’s likely in.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Winning at Martinsville is a big prize, but at this time of year, it’s simply a means of getting to the real prize, next week’s NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix International Raceway.

The eight NASCAR drivers still in the race for the championship this year are Bell and Larson (in the Championship 4), Byron and Blaney (currently third and fourth), and Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Hamlin, and Chris Buescher.

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Crayon 301 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 13, 2023

This week, we are in for the Crayon 301. One of the best parts about NASCAR racing is the variety. We had a street race in Chicago, last week the drivers were in the rain doing pack racing in Atlanta, and now we’re up north for some short and flat racing in New Hampshire.

You must be able to handle your car in all types of conditions if you are going to come through the Cup Series season as the champion.

Favorites to Win Crayon 301

Martin Truex Jr. (+650)
Christopher Bell (+650)
Kyle Larson (+850)
Denny Hamlin (+850)
William Byron (+1100)
Kyle Busch (+1100)
Kevin Harvick (+1100)
Chase Elliott (+1100)
Ryan Blaney (+1400)
Joey Logano (+1400)

Martin Truex Jr. and Christopher Bell are co-favorites at +650, and both have had a good recent run on this track. Since 2020 Truex has two top-five finishes in three starts and has led for a total of 172 laps over those three races.

Bell has two top-five finishes in three races, including a win here last July. Earlier this season at the short track in Richmond, Bell finished fourth. He was second at Richmond last summer.

Kyle Larson also likes short tracks. He won at Richmond back in April and finished in fifth place there last year. Phoenix is also short and flat, and since 2020 he has a win and two other top-five finishes there. Larson has never won at New Hampshire, but three separate times he has been the runner-up.

William Byron is coming off a win in Atlanta, he is the current Cup leader, and he is bunched with three other drivers at +1100. In five starts at New Hampshire, he has never cracked the top 10, but he had a third-place finish at Richmond last year, and this year he led there for 117 laps.

He was the winner at Phoenix in March, one of his four wins this season, and that could be a sign he’s ready to be in the mix this weekend.

Best Crayon 301 Bet Outside the Top 10

Not listed above is Brad Keselowski, but he really should be on your Crayon 301 betting radar. He’s a two-time winner at New Hampshire, with nine top-five finishes and an average finish since 2020 of third place.

Best of all, he is paying +1800 to win and +250 to finish in the top-five. He’s been 50/50 on top-five finishes over his last eight races here, so +250 is excellent value.

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Coca-Cola 600 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on May 24, 2023

After taking the week off in the points race, the NASCAR Cup Series gets back to full action this Memorial Day Weekend at the Coca-Cola 600, the third of the four races in NASCAR that make up the Grand Slam.

However, even though no points were at stake, don’t ignore last week’s results. It was another Kyle Larson win at the All-Star Race, a win that didn’t net him any points, but it did result in a $1 million winner’s check. It also points to his return to his 2021 form, when he won the Cup Series and the Coca-Cola 600.

Not surprisingly, for this weekend’s race in Charlotte, he is the Coca-Cola 600 favorite.

Favorites to Win Coca-Cola 600

Kyle Larson (+450)
William Byron (+550)
Denny Hamlin (+650)
Martin Truex Jr. (+850)
Chase Elliott (+900)
Ross Chastain (+1100)
Kyle Busch (+1100)
Christopher Bell (+1100)
Tyler Reddick (+1600)
Kevin Harvick (+1800)
Bubba Wallace (+1800)

Kyle Larson has three wins this season after crossing the finish line first just three times in all of 2022. He finished seventh in the standings last year and is only 10th at the moment. But his racing of late points to a surging second half for Larson and a possible return to the top. A win this week would go a long way to making that happen.

William Byron is fifth in the Cup Series standings, he’s running with the second shortest odds here, and he’s just two weeks removed from a win at Darlington. That was his third of three straight top-five finishes. He also has wins in Phoenix and Las Vegas and is in great shape heading into Charlotte.

Denny Hamlin is the defending champion at this race, and a repeat win here would move him into the top three in the Cup Series standings. He won at Kansas three weeks ago, and he has two other top-five finishes over the last six weeks.

Kevin Harvick is down at the bottom of the top 10, but he’s been one of the most successful drivers at Charlotte in recent years. He hasn’t won here since 2018, but last year he finished third, and in each of the previous five races at Charlotte, he finished in the top 10.

Brad Keselowski is a longshot at +4000, but when he has actually finished the race at Charlotte, his last three results are 11th, seventh, and first. Two weeks ago at Darlington, Keselowski finished fourth. That was his third top-five finish of the season.

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Goodyear 400 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on May 11, 2023

It’s Mother’s Day at Darlington, as the Cup Series makes its annual regular season trip to the South Carolina raceway for the Goodyear 400. The Cup Series will return to this track in September when the playoffs begin.

Last week we were in Kansas, where Denny Hamlin was the big winner. And now he goes for back-to-back wins at a track that he has dominated in recent years. He won here in 2017, 2020, and 2021, and last year he was the runner-up.

Red-hot from last week and now racing at a place where he has been at his best has Hamlin as a co-favorite heading into the weekend.

Favorites to Win Goodyear 400

Denny Hamlin (+550)
Kyle Larson (+550)
Martin Truex Jr. (+700)
Tyler Reddick (+850)
William Byron (+900)
Kyle Busch (+900)
Christopher Bell (+1000)
Ross Chastain (+1100)
Kevin Harvick (+1200)
Joey Logano (+1200)
Chase Elliott (+1200)

Kyle Larson was the runner-up to Hamlin last week, rebounding from back-to-back disappointments at Talladega and Dover. Larson now has five top-five finishes this season. Larson has never won at Darlington, and last year in this race, he finished 36th.

Martin Truex won the Goodyear 400 in 2021, and last year he led for 48 laps before a faulty water pump took him out of the race. He has led at least one lap in his last six races at Darlington. This season he has finished in the top 10 in six of his last seven races.

Tyler Reddick has never won here, but in the two races at Darlington in 2022, he finished second and third. And right behind him on the odds board is one the hottest drivers in the Cup Series, William Byron. He was third last week in Kansas, fourth in Dover, and seventh at Talladega.

Also, keep your eye on the trio of drivers paying +1200, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott.

Harvick had a mechanical issue last year that kept him from finishing. But in the 13 races at Darlington before that, he didn’t finish worse than ninth, and 11 times he was in the top five.

Logano won here last May, finished fourth in the playoff race in September, and has four other top-five finishes at Darlington since 2015. Elliott doesn’t have any wins at Darlington, but last May, he finished fifth, and in 2021 he was seventh.

Well, down the Goodyear 400 odds board is Erik Jones, paying +6500. He’s only finished in the top 10 in two of 12 races this season, but Darlington is his bread and butter. It’s the only track where he has won multiple times, which includes last September’s win over the playoff field.

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Cook Out Southern 500 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 31, 2022

With the regular season ending in the rain at Daytona, and a surprise victory by Austin Dillon, NASCAR moves on to the playoffs and the round of 16 in Darlington for the Cook Out Southern 500.

By virtue of his rain-delayed win, in which he had to retake the lead in the final three laps, Dillon is in the final field of 16. Ryan Blaney also got in by finishing the race in 15th place – the lone driver in the playoffs who did not record a victory this season.

Martin Truex Jr. lost out on that final spot, and he is now racing the rest of the season with no chance to win a championship.

Favorites to Win Cook Out Southern 500

Kyle Larson (+600)
Denny Hamlin (+700)
Chase Elliott (+800)
Joey Logano (+800)
Ross Chastain (+800)
Tyler Reddick (+800)
Kyle Busch (+900)
Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)
Ryan Blaney (+1400)
William Byron (+1400)

Leading the pack is Kyle Larson, and why not. He is the defending Cup Series champion, and in his last four Cook Out Southern 500 races at Darlington, he has three top-five finishes. His engine let him down at Daytona last week, but he was the winner the week before at Watkins Glen, giving him ten top-five finishes in 2022.

Since 2019 Denny Hamlin has raced at Darlington seven times, and he has two wins and four top-five finishes, which includes his win at Cook Out Southern 500 last year. He also didn’t finish last week’s race at Daytona, but he began the month of August with a third-place finish in Michigan and a fourth-place finish in Richmond.

Chase Elliott is your overall points leader, and he’s been so good all season that it seems like it’s been ages since he last won. In reality, it was only July 24th when he won at Pocono. He had two top-five finishes in August, but he’s only third on the Cook Out Southern 500 odds board because of an up-and-down history at Darlington.

Elliott finished fifth here back in May, but at Cook Out Southern 500 a year ago, he was 31st. He was 20th at this race in 2020 and 19th in 2019.

The last of the favorites worth an extra look is Joey Logano, who finished the regular season just 15 points behind Elliott. And unlike the man he has been chasing all season, he does have a good history at Darlington. He won here in May, was eighth last September, and he has four other top-five finishes in his career on this track at the Cook Out Southern 500.

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Ambetter 301 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 13, 2022

NASCAR takes a trip to Louden, New Hampshire, this weekend for the Ambetter 301. This race was originally 300 miles, but at one point, the sponsor of the event had the slogan, “tools that go the extra mile,” so naturally, an extra mile was added to the race.

Sponsorship has changed since then, but the race distance has not. This weekend’s Ambetter 301 winner will only be crowned after he goes that extra mile.

Favorite to Win Ambetter 301

Ryan Blaney (+600)
Kyle Busch (+650)
Joey Logano (+700)
Denny Hamlin (+850)
Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
Ross Chastain (+900)
Chase Elliott (+1000)
Kyle Larson (+1200)
Kevin Harvick (+1600)
Christopher Bell (+1600)

Ryan Blaney has yet to take a checkered flag this year, but he is the betting favorite heading into this weekend’s Ambetter 301 in New Hampshire. Blaney has no wins, but he does have seven top-five finishes and is currently in second place in the Cup standings.

The man atop the standings is Chase Elliott, who has surprisingly long odds considering that he has three wins on the season, including two wins in his last three starts and a second-place finish in the other of those three races. Elliott has never won in New Hampshire, but he’s simply too hot right now to ignore.

Kevin Harvick, at +1600, is also playing longer odds than he deserves. He’s been very good on flat tracks this season, and on the closest facsimiles to New Hampshire – Phoenix and Richmond – he was in the top-10 at both, and he was the runner-up in Richmond. He’s also finished in the top 10 in three of his last four races.

Longer Shots to Consider

Aric Almirola is paying +2500 because he hasn’t won this year, and he only has two top-five finishes in 2022. But in his career, he does have a win in New Hampshire to go along with three top-five finishes. And it was just last July when he recorded that win.

Brad Keselowski is paying a whopping +10000, even though he won at New Hampshire in 2020 and he finished third here in 2021.

Keselowski was a top-10 finisher at Sonoma a month ago, but overall his 2022 has been well below his standards. He has just two top-10 finishes and has finished worse than 20th a total of 10 times. But his recent history at New Hampshire is worth a look.

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Quaker State 400 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 6, 2022

NASCAR has been running races in Atlanta since 1960, and this weekend’s Quaker State 400 will be the 116th Cup Series race to be held at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The Cup Series standings are as tight as they’ve ever been, with Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and Ross Chastain within 35 points of each other. The betting odds for this week’s race are also as tight as they’ve ever been, with four drivers listed as co-favorites and a total of 10 drivers playing odds of less than +2000.

Favorites to Win Quaker State 400

Chase Elliott (+1000)
Denny Hamlin (+1000)
Ryan Blaney (+1000)
William Byron (+1000)
Ross Chastain (+1200)
Bubba Wallace (+1400)
Joey Logano (+1400)
Kyle Busch (+1400)
Kyle Larson (+1400)
Tyler Reddick (+1800)

Chase Elliott is your current Cup leader, and he’s naturally one of the co-favorites to win at Quaker State 400. He finished second on Sunday at Road America, following up his win in Nashville to close out the month of June. Elliott has never won in Atlanta in eight career starts, but he has finished top-10 in five of those races.

Denny Hamlin hasn’t been very good since the summer months started, with only one top-10 finish in his last four starts. But he does have two wins on the season, and in two of his last four starts in Atlanta, he finished top-five.

Closing out the top-10 Quaker State 400 favorites is Tyler Reddick, who is coming off the win on Sunday at Road America. The reason Reddick isn’t higher on the favorites board this week is that his win on Sunday was his first of the season, and it follows an 18th place finish at Nashville and a 35th place finish at Sonoma. In the March race in Atlanta, he finished 28th.

Value Bets to Consider

Give Kurt Busch a closer look for this race. He’s 18th on the betting board, paying +2500. The reason there is value here is because Busch is the Quaker State 400 defending champion. At the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, also run at Atlanta, he finished third. And just two weeks ago, he was the runner-up in Nashville.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is also paying +2500, and that is also very good value for a driver who should be in the mix in the final laps of the Quaker State 400. He’s an excellent plate track driver, which is what Atlanta has become after its redesign.

He’s twice a winner on such tracks – one at Talladega and one at Daytona – and at the race in Atlanta in March, he was battling for the lead on lap 201 when he unfortunately wrecked. He led for 22 laps that Sunday.

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NASCAR at Kansas Speedway Betting Preview

NASCAR at Kansas Speedway 2022 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on May 11, 2022

In the final race before NASCAR has its all-star break, the drivers make their annual stop at the Kansas Speedway on the Kansas side of Kansas City.

Sadly the name Buschy McBusch Race, as it was known for the regular-season race here in 2021, has been replaced. Now the race in Kansas is known as the AdventHealth 400. That’s 400.5 total miles driven and 267 laps around the tri-oval.

Favorite to Win the NASCAR AdventHealth 400

Kyle Larson (+700)
Kyle Busch (+700)
Denny Hamlin (+700)
Chase Elliott (+700)
William Byron (+1000)
Ross Chastain (+1000)
Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)
Joey Logano (+1200)
Ryan Blaney (+1400)
Tyler Reddick (+1600)
Alex Bowman (+1600)

The four drivers bunched at the top are likely to separate on the odds board before this race is run this weekend, so keep an eye on that before you place any NASCAR bets.

However, a bet on Denny Hamlin, no matter the number, is going to be a good one. He won on this track in 2019 and 2020, and he finished fifth in last year’s playoff race that was held here.

It is worth noting that in that playoff race last October, it was Kyle Larson taking the checkered flag. However, that is his one and only win in Kansas.

He finished third and fourth in the two races here in 2018, but in last year’s regular-season race, he finished 19th. He was 14th in the race before that.

Chase Elliott is also a worthy favorite. He won here in 2018 and has finished fourth, second, sixth, fifth, and second since that race.

Best Value Bets

If you’re looking to take a chance on a longshot, think about Austin Cindric at +6000. It’s a hefty payday if it hits, and here’s why it might: The young driver remains largely unknown, except on intermediate NASCAR tracks like the one in Kansas.

He’s run five races on this type of track, and it’s been the type where he shows the most improvement from starting position to finishing position.

Like last year at Kansas, when he began 38th but finished 22nd. He has shown the ability to gain on the field, and as his starting positions continue to improve, so will his finishes.

Also at +6000 is Aric Almirola, who has never won in Kansas, but he does have seven top-10 finishes here. He’s also had four top-10 finishes this NASCAR season, including Martinsville, Las Vegas, California, and Daytona.

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Pennzoil 400 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 3, 2022

We had an unexpected winner at Daytona, with Austin Cindric taking the checkered flag at the Daytona 500 as a rookie. He was 20th in the favorites board and paid +3100.

Last week at Wise Power 400, things returned to normal, with Kyle Larson winning the race and joining mainstays Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski and winners in 2022.

From Fontana, California, we go to Las Vegas, Nevada, and the Pennzoil 400, and not surprisingly, the betting world loves Larson to win again.

Favorites to Win Pennzoil 400

Kyle Larson (+350)
Chase Elliott (+700)
Joey Logano (+800)
Denny Hamlin (+800)
Ryan Blaney (+850)
Kyle Busch (+1000)
William Byron (+1200)
Martin Truex, Jr. (+1400)
Tyler Reddick (+1500)
Kevin Harvick (+1500)

Larson won this race a year ago and is coming off the win last week. Of course, he is the heavy favorite.

Joey Logano was a winner this year in Los Angeles and has two wins in Las Vegas, including two years ago. In the last six races in Las Vegas, Logo has led 15% of the laps and has four top-10 finishes to go along with his two wins. Overall he has 17 career starts in Vegas and has finished in the top-5 a total of six times.

Logano finished fifth last week in Fontana.

Like Logano, Denny Hamlin is paying +800, and he has a solid history in Las Vegas. At the race here last September, he was the winner, leading for 137 laps.

He was fourth at the Pennzoil 400 last March, and in September of 2020, he finished third. Overall, Hamlin has nine top-10 finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Value Bets to Consider

Jumping off the board is Brad Keselowski paying +2500. He was second in Las Vegas a year ago, and three previous times in Las Vegas, he has taken the checkered flag.

He’s finished in the top-10 in 12 of his last 13 Las Vegas starts, and eight of those starts had him finishing in the top-five. Keselowski also won the first of the Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona three weeks ago. Why he is only listed at +2500 is a mystery.

Daytona 500 winner Austin Cindric is paying +3000. He doesn’t have experience in Las Vegas, but that didn’t stop him in Daytona.

And while that win might have been flukey, he is a quality driver and followed it up with a 12th place finish in Fontana. He also had a nice showing at the L.A. Coliseum.

One last value play to look at is Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. at +6000. His most recent form in Las Vegas has been spotty, but it includes a third-place finish two years ago and a sixth-place finish in 2019.

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Final NASCAR Playoff Elimination Race at Martinsville

NASCAR Odds to Win Xfinity 500

NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Pay Per Head Software

Crayon 301 Betting Preview

Favorites to Win Crayon 301

Best Crayon 301 Bet Outside the Top 10

Pay Per Head Software

Coca-Cola 600 Betting Preview

Favorites to Win Coca-Cola 600

Pay Per Head Software

Goodyear 400 Betting Preview

Favorites to Win Goodyear 400

Pay Per Head Software

Cook Out Southern 500 2022 Betting Preview

Favorites to Win Cook Out Southern 500

Pay Per Head Software

Ambetter 301 2022 Betting Preview

Favorite to Win Ambetter 301

Longer Shots to Consider

Pay Per Head Software

Quaker State 400 2022 Betting Preview

Favorites to Win Quaker State 400

Value Bets to Consider

Pay Per Head Software

NASCAR at Kansas Speedway 2022 Betting Preview

Favorite to Win the NASCAR AdventHealth 400

Best Value Bets

Pay Per Head Software

Pennzoil 400 Betting Preview

Favorites to Win Pennzoil 400

Value Bets to Consider

Pay Per Head Software

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