NFL Preseason Week 3 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on August 24, 2022

The final week of the NFL preseason is the last chance for players to get into the rhythm for the regular season. It’s also a last chance for the referees to work out their offseason cobwebs, and it’s the last chance for NFL bettors to make a few bucks before 18 straight regular-season Sundays of wall-to-wall point spreads and parlays.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Dallas Cowboys – Friday

This pick is all about incentive. The two quarterbacks in Seattle are fighting for a job, and they will play like it. The Cowboys are playing to not get hurt before their season starts against the Buccaneers.

Seattle’s roster is far better than many people think, and they will cover the three-point spread in Dallas.

New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) – Friday

Mac Jones has looked good for the Patriots, and their defense looked strong in their 20-10 win over the Panthers last week. So look for the Patriots to put things on cruise control for most of this game.

The Raiders, however, are led by new head coach Josh McDaniels, a disciple of Bill Belichick, and he would love to beat his long-time boss.

The Raiders have a new offense, they will spend more time on Friday working on that offense, and that will be enough for them to get the win on Friday and cover the very small point spread.

NFL Preseason

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-4.5) – Saturday

Never before has a Cleveland Browns team wanted to beat the Carolina Panthers more than the Browns do in Week 1 this year. Losing to the quarterback, they dumped in exchange for the quarterback mess they brought into the building will not please a fan base already on edge.

They have talent, they care about this game so that it sets them up well for September 11, and they absolutely want to have a good performance in front of those home fans.

Even if the Bears roll with their starters in this one, the Cleveland defense is simply too good. The Browns will cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (Pick) – Saturday

The Denver Broncos were just annihilated by the Buffalo Bills. It’s only the NFL preseason, but no one likes to get dominated at this level. These players all have pride.

Look for Denver to rebound back at Mile High and do a much better job of slowing the Minnesota offense. These teams played in the NFL preseason last year, and Denver won 33-6. Look for another Broncos win this weekend.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason Week 3 Betting Picks

NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 17, 2022

Despite it being the NFL preseason, and with so many starters out, the opening full week of NFL football turned in some great performances, great games, and great opportunities to make money wagering.

NFL preseason Week 2 should be more of the same, but better, as each team begins to narrow in on its best players, and they begin to open the playbook just a little more.

Chicago Bears (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks – Thursday

There is disappointment in Seattle, as the quarterback competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock takes a pause for at least one week, with Lock out due to a COVID-19 positive test.

So that means that instead of seeing Lock as the starter against the Bears – Smith was the starter in Week 1 – we’re getting more Smith, followed by Jacob Eason.

That gives the edge to the Bears and Justin Fields, who won at the end in Week 1 at home and are a much better bet to cover the spread late against Eason, who has no chance at regular season playing time in Seattle.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (+2) – Friday

Beware the home underdog. As was mentioned in this space before last week’s games, in the preseason, the underdog wins outright and against the spread at a much higher rate than in the regular NFL season, and this is especially true of home underdogs.

The Panthers will trot out two former starting quarterbacks to play in this game, with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold engaged in two more weeks of quarterback competition. Beyond Mac Jones, the Patriots have Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe, who should never see the field in New England in the regular season.

But it’s time for the Patriots to get a win, and beating the Panthers at home would be a good start.


San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) at Minnesota Vikings

One of the big winners from Week 1 of the preseason was the 49ers. Trey Lance displayed the arm that had them moving up to take him in the 2021 draft, and it has become clear that he is a top candidate to be a breakout star in 2022.

We’re buying all of the Lance stock we can get, and especially when he and the Niners are more than a field goal underdog in the NFL preseason.

San Francisco won 28-21 in Week 1, and that was with 25 starters resting. So there is no reason to think that they can’t put up a similar performance against the Vikings, who have Kirk Cousins coming off a bout with COVID.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Preview

NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on August 10, 2022

If you are an experienced NFL bettor, you know the disclaimer that follows. This is the NFL preseason.

There used to be a time when starters would actually play as much as a full quarter of football, or even more. Those days, however, are over. Most of the veteran stars will not see the field in this first week of full preseason play, and perhaps even any of the preseason.

That makes it tough to make accurate picks, which is both good and bad. Bad, because a lot of wagers are just guesses in the NFL preseason. But good, in that the lines bookmakers post are also largely guesses, and that makes for some exploitable point spreads.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – Thursday

It is the most bizarre streak in the history of the NFL. The Ravens have won 20 consecutive NFL preseason football games, and under head coach John Harbaugh they are 12-1 against the spread in the opening week of the preseason.

It’s nuts, winning that many consecutive games you aren’t really even trying to win. But at this point, the Ravens are trying to win, hoping to keep the streak alive. It will be fun to watch Malik Willis play for the Titans in this one but bet on the Ravens to cover the spread.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (+1.5) – Friday

The pick of the Ravens aside, it generally is more profitable to pick underdogs in the preseason. Underdogs have covered the spread 54.2% of the time over the previous two seasons.

Here we have a home dog, and one who is the subject of HBO’s Hard Knocks, which makes us like the Lions even more. Last year’s Hard Knocks team was the Indianapolis Colts, and they won all three of their NFL preseason games.

Go with home dog Lions to cover.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-1) – Friday

The 49ers, with a new young quarterback, will play Trey Lance in their first and third preseason games. They are also expected to play several other starters along with Lance.

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t appeared in an NFL preseason game since 2018, and he won’t be in the field on Friday in San Francisco. For that reason, plus the Packers having to travel, we like the 49ers to cover this nominal point spread.

NFL Preseason

Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (Under 30) – Saturday

Rams coach Sean McVay and Chargers coach Brandon Staley hate the NFL preseason. Their only goal in preseason games is to get them over as quickly as possible. In 2021 the Rams scored 6, 16, and 12 points. The Chargers scored 13, 10, and 0. And when they played head-to-head, the final score was 13-6.

It would be a shock if these teams go over 30 total points. For these two teams, hammer that under.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks

NFL Preseason: Hall of Fame Game Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 3, 2022

The Hall of Fame Game is rarely good.

Starters almost never play, and if they do, it’s only for a handful of plays. Coaches run offenses that would be vanilla by Pop Warner football standards. The only real goal of the evening is to not get hurt.

And none of that matters because it’s live football for the first time in six months, and it feels so good to have it back.

Hall of Fame Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-2)

It is not a coincidence that both the Jaguars and Raiders have former players being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame this weekend. The teams for this game are chosen with the knowledge of that year’s Hall of Fame class, and when possible, a notable inductee will match up with a team playing in the game.

The Raiders have former wide receiver Cliff Branch going into the Hall this weekend, the 18th player in team history to be enshrined. The Jaguars have Tony Boselli, their first-ever member of the Hall of Fame.

Raiders fans are notoriously good travelers, not to mention a much larger fan base than what you see in Jacksonville. There is expected to be a large sea of silver and black at the game, which may be one reason the Raiders are the favorite here.

They are, of course, also coming off a playoff appearance, as compared to the Jaguars, who had the worst record in the NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars News

We do know with certainty that quarterback Trevor Lawrence will not play on Thursday night. New Jags head coach Doug Pederson made the announcement earlier in the week and added;

“Trevor’s been getting a lot of great looks here in practice and we feel he’s in a good spot.”

Jake Luton will get the start.

A bit more surprising was the news that second-year running back Travis Etienne, who missed his entire rookie season, will also miss the game. He was out of practice on Tuesday because of illness, and he will remain out the rest of the week.

Hall of Fame Game

Las Vegas Raiders News

New Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels hasn’t been specific on who will and won’t suit up on Thursday, but we can expect most of their top starters to be in street clothes. The team has suffered a number of injuries along the defensive line, including new EDGE rusher Chandler Jones, and they don’t want to risk anymore.

For McDaniels, however, this Hall of Fame Game is special. McDaniels grew up in Canton, Ohio, and as a high school quarterback, he played in Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium, where he was coached by his dad.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason: Hall of Fame Game Preview

Betting Odds to Win Super Bowl LVII

by WagerHome Blog on February 16, 2022

The NFL has become a 12-month a year league, and so has NFL betting. No matter what time of year it is, and no matter how far away the next scheduled game is (or like now when we don’t even have a schedule), there are NFL bets to play.

Right now, the big bet is, of course, the winner of the next year’s Super Bowl, scheduled to be played in Glendale, Arizona, on February 12, 2023.

Favorites to Win Super Bowl LVII

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+750)
  • Buffalo Bills (+750)
  • Los Angeles Rams (+1000)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+1400)
  • San Francisco 49ers (+1400)
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+1400)
  • Green Bay Packers (+1600)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+2000)
  • Denver Broncos (+2000)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2200)
  • Tennessee Titans (+2200)

The Bills-Chiefs divisional round game in Kansas City was the best game of the 2021 postseason, and not surprisingly, with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen at the height of their powers, these are the two teams deemed most likely to win next year’s Super Bowl.

The defending champion Los Angeles Rams are next at +1000, and the top-rated team in the NFC. Question marks with Odell Beckham, Jr., Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Sean McVay are likely the reason they aren’t higher. Plus, they play in a division with the 49ers, who are one of three teams tied for fourth-most likely to win the Super Bowl.

Joining San Francisco at +1400 is the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals, as well as the Dak Prescott-led Dallas Cowboys.

One thing the Chiefs, Bills, Rams, Bengals, and Cowboys all have in common is a settled franchise quarterback. The Niners are the highest-ranked team without that luxury, and it’s also where the Packers find themselves at +1600. If Jordan Love is their quarterback in 2022, those odds should go way up.

Also of note, the Ravens should be healthy next season, and +2000 might be great value. And the Titans, with a healthy Derrick Henry, might also be a great play at +2200.

Betting Odds to Win Super Bowl LVII

Fallen Playoff Teams

Notably off the favorites board are three teams coming off playoff appearances.

The Eagles are at +4000, which is probably a reflection of being in the Cowboys’ shadow, plus continued doubts about Jalen Hurts.

No more Ben Roethlisberger has cratered the Steelers outlook. They are paying just +5000 to win next year’s Super Bowl. It doesn’t help that they play the Bengals and Ravens twice.

And what’s happened to the Raiders? They were a play away from beating the Bengals in the AFC playoffs and don’t expect a major roster turnover, yet they too are only listed at +5000. If you’re looking for a good value bet, this is it.

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WagerHome BlogBetting Odds to Win Super Bowl LVII

Super Bowl LVI Prop Bets to Make

by WagerHome Blog on February 10, 2022

You’ve been analyzing and re-analyzing the 4-5-point spread that favors the Rams since the day after the Super Bowl matchup was set. But don’t forget about the prop bets, which truly make the Super Bowl the most fun wagering event of the season.

You’ve got the fun props, like the length of the National Anthem, the color of singer Mickey Guyton’s outfit, and how many planes will be in the flyover.

There are, however, more serious props, and lots of them. These are the props that, with a little bit of research, can make you money.

Cooper Kupp Over 106.5 Receiving Yards

One of the best bets all season long has been Cooper Kupp hitting the over. We’re going to roll with Kupp one last time, with his over/under line at 106.5 receiving yards.

Kupp has gone over 107 yards in 11 of his last 14 games, including the last two – 183 yards against the Bucs and 142 yards against the 49ers. The Bengals gave up 142 yards to A.J. Brown two games ago, and they will give up at least 107 to Kupp. He goes OVER.

Bengals Team Rushing Yards Under 85.5

One of the keys to the Bengals beating the Chiefs was their 116 rushing yards as a team. However, that was their first game over 85 yards since Week 15 against the Broncos – a string of six games of going under 85 yards.

The Rams defense is good against the run and just held the 49ers to 70 yards as a team. Look for the Bengals to go UNDER.

Rams Total Sacks Over 3.5

A lot has been made of the Bengals’ offensive line and how it led the league this year in sacks allowed, including the nine they allowed to the Titans. Seven times in the 2021 regular season, they allowed four or more sacks, and the Rams went over four sacks in a game four times.

Under 3.5 pays -135, while taking the over pays +105, and that’s why we’re going OVER on 3.5 team sacks.

Super Bowl MVP

While it is likely for either Matthew Stafford or Joe Burrow to win the MVP, there are some very appealing payoffs if you go with someone else.

Super Bowl LVI Prop Bets to Make

Aaron Donald comes with a +1600 payday if he wins the MVP. Ja’Marr Chase for the Bengals is paying +1800, although if he has a big day, so will Burrow, and the voters would probably lean toward the quarterback.

Von Miller, who already has a Super Bowl MVP, is paying +4500 if he wins a second one. And give the two main running backs a look. Cam Akers is at +3500, and Joe Mixon is paying +4500.

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WagerHome BlogSuper Bowl LVI Prop Bets to Make

Early Super Bowl LVI Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on February 2, 2022

It’s been a whirlwind the last couple of weeks. Two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks have retired, and the end of an era of greatness leaves with Tom Brady.

The Washington Football Team is no more, as we now have the Washington Commanders. And in true Washington fashion, they couldn’t keep it a secret, and the big announcement was spoiled by a leak.

And, of course, we still have a Super Bowl to play, with two of the game’s best quarterbacks making their first appearance in the big game.

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)

It was just three years ago that the Rams were in the Super Bowl, so as a team, this is nothing new. But that Rams iteration was led by quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley, and wide receivers Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks.

Now it’s Matthew Stafford under center, Cooper Kupp has gone from the third receiver on the team to the best receiver in all of football, and joining Aaron Donald on defense is All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

One added twist to the Rams’ return to the Super Bowl is that in Super Bowl LIII, played in Atlanta, the Rams were the home team. Here in Los Angeles, in their home stadium, they are the away team.

Cincinnati Bengals

For the Bengals, it’s been a little longer since they were last in the Super Bowl. Head coach Zac Taylor was just five years old when Cincinnati lost to the 49ers in Super Bowl XXIII. By the time Joe Burrow was born in 1996, Boomer Esiason was playing in Arizona, Icky Woods had been retired for five years, and Cris Collinsworth had been in broadcasting for seven years.

Early Super Bowl LVI Betting Preview

This is a new Bengals team and the newest powerhouse on the NFL block. Just two years ago, they were 2-14 and the worst team in the NFL, which is how they got Burrow. Last year they were still bad, finishing 4-12, and that’s how they got Ja’Marr Chase.

To be the AFC Champion, and now a game away from their first-ever Super Bowl championship, is more than anyone in Cincinnati could have hoped.

Super Bowl Matchup

The quarterback and wide receiver play is going to be great in this game, without question. But if you want to know why the Rams are the favorite, it’s simple. They have a better secondary and are much better against the pass, and they are much better along the line of scrimmage.

The Bengals nearly lost in the division round because they gave up nine sacks to the Titans and Jeffery Simmons. Now they face Aaron Donald, who is even better.

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WagerHome BlogEarly Super Bowl LVI Betting Preview

AFC and NFC Championship Betting Previews

by WagerHome Blog on January 26, 2022

We are back with another NFL betting preview! There is absolutely no way that this weekend can match the excitement of the Divisional Round. Every single one of the four games ended with a walk-off win.

But as a consolation to not being the best weekend of football, this is the most important weekend of the season, with the winners on Sunday headed to Super Bowl LVI. Check out our AFC and NFC Championship betting previews below!

AFC Championship Betting Preview – Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

Both of these quarterbacks need the week off. Joe Burrow, in his last-second win over the Titans, was sacked nine times. He needs a week in a hot tub before he plays the Chiefs.

For Patrick Mahomes, he needs the week to return his heart rate back to normal. In the final two minutes and overtime of his last-second win over the Bills, there were 31 points scored, four lead changes, and Mahomes himself threw for 177 yards after the two-minute warning.

So can the Bengals, who have scored a total of 47 points in their two playoff games, keep up with the Chiefs, who have scored a total of 84 points in their two playoff games?

Fortunately, we don’t have to wonder. These teams played one another less than four weeks ago, and the Bengals did keep pace with Kansas City, actually winning 34-31 on a final-play field goal. You might remember that Ja’Marr Chase was incredible, going for 266 yards, and he has gone over 100 yards in each round of the playoffs.

Yes, the Bengals can keep pace with the Chiefs, and with a large seven-point spread, they will cover.

NFC Championship Betting Preview – San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

This is another rematch from the regular season and another one where the visiting underdog was the winner the first time around. For the 49ers, it was actually two wins against the Rams this season, and if you want to go back even further, they’ve now won six-straight games against their Southern California rivals.

Because of that Week 18 win in Los Angeles that put San Francisco into the postseason, they have a longer winning streak. But heading into the NFC Championship, at least on the offensive side of the ball, they have the most question marks.

Jimmy Garoppolo did not play well against the Cowboys, and he did not play well against the Packers. Jimmy G has 303 yards passing, no touchdowns, and two interceptions in the playoffs, but amazingly the 49ers have been winning.

Matthew Stafford is playing great in L.A., with 568 yards and four touchdowns in the playoffs, and the Rams offense is clicking in a way that will make it very tough for the 49ers on Sunday. Not only does L.A. win the game, but they also win it by at least a touchdown and cover this spread.

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WagerHome BlogAFC and NFC Championship Betting Previews

Free NFL Divisional Round Betting Previews

by WagerHome Blog on January 19, 2022

Perhaps 14 teams is too many. The seven seeds lost their two games by a combined 38 points, and the Patriots, one of the six seeds, lost by 37 points.

And none of those three games were even that close.

But this, the Divisional Round, now that the fat has been trimmed, is always the best weekend of the year.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans

What a way for the Divisional Round weekend to kick off. It’s Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense versus Derrick Henry’s return (fingers crossed), a top-10 defense, and the top seed in the AFC.

Sometimes it’s good to have a bye, and other times it’s good to keep rolling. The Bengals got both, resting their starters in Week 18 and now going into Tennessee on the momentum of winning their first playoff game in 31 years.

This will be a close game, decided by a field goal or less, and look for the Bengals to cover.

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6)

Nick Bosa isn’t practicing, and we’re not sure he’s going to play. Jimmy Garoppolo has yet another injury he has to deal with. Meanwhile, the Packers are getting healthier, with both Za’Darius Smith and Jaire Alexander back at practice this week.

But even if they don’t play, this Packers team is chasing destiny. Look for the Packers to cover with the point spread at less than a touchdown.

Los Angeles Rams (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs defense seems to be getting healthy, but their offense took another hit when All-Pro tight tackle Tristan Wirfs went down on Sunday with an ankle injury. He hasn’t been ruled out, but we do know he won’t practice until at least Friday. We also saw that without Wirfs, that offensive line struggled.

Now comes Aaron Donald, who specializes in making offensive lines struggle. The Rams looked great, they are healthy, and Matthew Stafford and company are primed to pull off the Divisional Round upset.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2)

After Saturday night, it was apparent no one was going to beat Josh Allen and the Bills. He had 374 yards of offense and five touchdown passes.

Sunday night, it was evident that no one would beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. He had 432 yards of offense and five touchdown passes.

So what do we make of this Sunday’s game between the two?

It’s going to be a classic and likely come down to the end. But the game is at Arrowhead Stadium – advantage Chiefs – and Patrick Mahomes has a .777 winning percentage in the postseason, which is better than both Tom Brady and Joe Montana.

It’s going to be a great Divisional Round game, with Kansas City winning by three points in the end.

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WagerHome BlogFree NFL Divisional Round Betting Previews

NFL Opening Round Playoff Picks

by WagerHome Blog on January 13, 2022

NFL Wild card weekend is here, and the only thing as good as the football from Saturday through Monday night, is the betting.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)

The Bengals haven’t won a playoff game in 31 years, losing eight straight playoff games since beating the Houston Oilers 41-14. That eight-game losing streak began with a 20-10 loss to the Raiders, and the streak will end with a win over the Raiders by at least a touchdown.

For the Raiders, this will be their third straight postseason loss.

New England Patriots (+4) at Buffalo Bills

For the third time in just over a month, the Patriots and Bills meet, and that kind of familiarity favors the experience of Bill Belichick.

The Bills offense has struggled since they played the Patriots in Week 16. Josh Allen threw three interceptions in Week 17 and completed just 53 percent of his passes in Week 18.

The Bills may still win, but the Patriots’ defense keeps it to within a field goal.

Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Except for two games with the Panthers, the Bucs haven’t looked great this last month. There was the near-miss against the Jets, a shut out to the Saints, and a trainer’s room full of injuries.

NFL Opening Round Playoff PicksTom Brady is still Tom Brady, but the 109 yards given up on the ground to Josh Allen in Week 14 is a sign that the top rusher among NFL quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts, and the top-ranked rushing team, the Eagles, will keep this game close.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

A month ago, it was said that if the Cowboys re-discovered their offense, they were going to be really tough to beat in the postseason. Two 50-burgers in the last three weeks, and this offense, coupled with a defense that ranks seventh in points allowed, should roll at home.

The Niners earned their way into the playoffs, but they will be bounced by more than a touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5)

In 19 playoff games, we have seen a point spread as high as 13 points. The favored team is 18-1 overall (the one loss was by the Rams to the Patriots in the Super Bowl), and against the spread, the favored team is 11-7-1.

The Steelers lost to Kansas City, 36-10, three weeks ago, and that was without Travis Kelce. He’s playing, and the Chiefs win this game easily.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4)

The Cardinals did get the win in Dallas in Week 17, but they’ve lost the other four of their final fives games and too bad teams in Detroit and Seattle. The Rams backed into the division championship with their own loss in Week 18 but have enough firepower to win this game by a touchdown.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Opening Round Playoff Picks