NFL Week 7 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on October 19, 2023

With six teams on a bye in NFL Week 7, we have a slimmed-down NFL schedule this weekend, with only 13 games.

But fewer games does not mean fewer good NFL games, and we begin our Week 7 best bets look at a really good game in Baltimore.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

Jared Goff has been outstanding, the Lions are in the top 10 in both offense and defense, and their 5-1 record is tied for the best mark in the NFL. And Detroit is a road underdog at the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are good, but the Lions have been hammering teams, winning four games by double-digits. It’s not that the Ravens don’t present a challenge for the Lions, but at this point, Detroit has earned the right to not get points just because they’re on the road.

Take those points.

Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants

This is not one of the better games of the weekend, but it is one of the better bets. Yes, the Giants nearly shocked the world with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback last week in Buffalo. But that was a superior performance by Taylor against his old team. This week, he will have a letdown against an old division foe.

The Commanders look like a potential NFL Wild Card team, the Giants look like a top-five drafting team, and Washington is the better bet at MetLife Stadium.


Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

The Cardinals are playing as good a football as you can play and not win games. They are just 1-5 on the season but 3-3 against the point spread.

But this week, they get one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks, and they will find the going much tougher than in weeks past. Seattle should have won last week at Cincinnati, and they will this week at home, covering the spread.

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The game of the week is in Philadelphia, where the two best offenses in the NFL do battle.

They are No. 1 and No. 2 in total yards, the Dolphins lead the NFL in points, and the Eagles are fifth. They’re also both top-10 in yards per play and third down conversion rate.

But Miami has a huge edge in red zone scoring, and that is why the Dolphins should not be underdogs in this game. The Dolphins score touchdowns on 80% of their red zone trips, the Eagles score TDs on just 45%.

Miami scores more touchdowns, more points, and can beat you more ways, and that is why you should take the points.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 7 Best Bets

With No Unbeatens Left, NFL Super Bowl Odds Shift

by WagerHome Blog on October 17, 2023

It’s not just that the NFL’s last two remaining unbeaten teams lost on Sunday. It’s how they lost, and who they lost to.

The San Francisco 49ers were seen as the class of the league this NFL season, steamrolling their opponents, including their biggest NFL game of the year, a 42-10 Week 5 win over the Cowboys. But this week, facing a backup quarterback in P.J. Walker, the Niners lost 19-17 and managed just 215 total yards.

The Eagles hadn’t been winning by the same margins as the 49ers, but they were winning with the same frequency. But then, on Sunday, they turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions by Jalen Hurts, and they lost to the Jets, 20-14.

Who remains worthy of your Super Bowl bet?

Current Odds to Win NFL Super Bowl LVIII

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+450)
  • San Francisco 49ers (+450)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+750)
  • Buffalo Bills (+800)
  • Miami Dolphins (+1000)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+1100)
  • Detroit Lions (+1400)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+1600)

The Kansas City Chiefs now have the longest winning streak in the NFL at five games. They aren’t blowing people out offensively, but they are playing much better defense than in years past, and their margin for victory is actually higher than last year.

The 49ers are still a great team, and a bad game against really good defense doesn’t change that. And one bad game from Brock Purdy doesn’t undo all of the good games he’s played in San Francisco.

The Buffalo Bills remain as the fourth betting favorite, but they were just one yard away from losing to the hapless Giants at home, following up on their poor performance in London. This feels like an overpay, considering how poorly they have played the last two weeks.


The Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL, and even as they begin to take some nicks – rookie running back De’Von Achane is on IR – their explosiveness hasn’t changed. They scored the final 42 points in their blowout win over the Panthers this week.

The Detroit Lions at +1400 should feel disrespected. They beat the Chiefs straight up, albeit against a Chiefs team missing two All-Pros. But all of their other wins have come by double-digits, including this week’s 20-6 easy victory on the road at Tampa Bay. Detroit’s lone loss came in overtime against a good Seattle team.

The Lions have seen improving odds each week, thanks to their 5-1 record, but both the Bills and Cowboys have more losses than the Lions and really bad losses at that.

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This week, there is a full schedule of NFL games, with no one of the bye. There are also four games this weekend between teams in the top-25 in college football. Twenty-one of the top-25 is in action overall. Plus, we have the Major League Baseball Championship Series.

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WagerHome BlogWith No Unbeatens Left, NFL Super Bowl Odds Shift

Best Bets for NFL Week 5

by WagerHome Blog on October 5, 2023

Best Bets for NFL Week 5

We are now into the bye weeks, so in Week 5, we have two fewer games to bet, as there are four teams off this week. Although one of those teams is not the Atlanta Falcons, who after playing in London last week, chose to play this week at home instead of taking the customary bye.

It was a good choice. The way they played on Sunday in London, better to get that taste out of your mouth as soon as possible.

Houston Texans (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have Bijan Robinson, who began the season as the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner. But Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is the favorite right now after putting up four of the best games to ever start a season, and start a career.

DeMeco Ryans has this team playing well up and down the roster, and along with the stunning start for Stroud, there has been great play from wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and rookie defensive end Will Anderson is making an impact on defense.

There are great players on the Falcons offense, but there hasn’t been much good play, and that will continue this week after their long weekend in England. Take the Texans and take the points.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-10)

The last time the Lions were double-digit favorites was 2017, when the Matthew Stafford-led Lions hosted the Cleveland Browns, quarterbacked by DeShone Kizer, coached by Hue Jackson, and finishing what was a 1-31 record over two seasons.

The Panthers aren’t nearly that bad, so a good deal of this week’s point spread is a belief in the Lions, and not just a disbelief in their opponent. However, there is definitely a good deal of the latter. The Panthers have problems that playing against the best team in the NFC North will only expose further.

The Lions covered in that game against the Browns in 2017, and they will cover this week as well.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

Dallas Cowboys Scores, Stats and Highlights - ESPN

It’s the game of the week, and it’s a playoff rematch from last season, when San Francisco and Brock Purdy ended the Cowboys hopes of a deep playoff run. There won’t be any season-ending losses this time around, but it’s easy to envision another big win for the Niners. Less easy to picture Dallas getting the win.

Purdy has been the most efficient quarterback in the league, and Christian McCaffrey is making a serious bid to end the quarterback position’s dominance of the MVP award. This game goes to the Niners, and hopefully we’ll see another addition of this rivalry in the playoffs in January.

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WagerHome BlogBest Bets for NFL Week 5

Best Bets for NFL Week 4

by WagerHome Blog on September 28, 2023

In NFL Week 3, survivor pools were left in tatters after the Dallas Cowboys lost to the Arizona Cardinals and the Baltimore Ravens lost to the Indianapolis Colts. And how on earth could the Minnesota Vikings get inside the Chargers six-yard line twice in the final three minutes and not score any points?

Thus are the fates when you wager on the NFL.

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills

There is no greater example of the week-to-week nature of the NFL than the fact that one week after winning 70-20, the Dolphins are road underdogs.

Sure, Miami has a bad history in Buffalo. They’ve lost seven in a row when visiting the Bills. But they nearly won in the playoffs in January with Skylar Thompson at quarterback, and this year’s Miami team just feels different.

When the best offense is getting points, you take them.

Washington Commanders (+8) at Philadelphia Eagles

You will be forgiven for not taking the Commanders in this one, considering how bad things got last week against the Bills. But this is a divisional game (always close), and don’t forget that last year, an undefeated Eagles team dropped their first game of the year to a lesser version of the Commanders.

Washington has the defense and the running game to keep this NFL game close, and until Jalen Hurts irons out his inconsistencies in the passing game, Philadelphia will get more tight wins than blowouts. Washington knows how to play the Eagles tight, and they will do it again on Sunday.


Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Even with a bad Deshaun Watson last season, the Browns and Ravens split, with Cleveland winning at home. The year before that, with a bad Baker Mayfield, the teams also split, each winning on their home field.

Now the Browns are getting average play from Watson and otherworldly play from their defense – Cleveland has the best scoring defense in the NFL, giving up just 10 points per game.

The Nick Chubb loss looks to be big, as the Browns mustered almost no running game last week against the Titans. But Baltimore is dealing with multiple injuries at multiple positions, and that will make it too hard for them to overcome the defense or the crowd in Cleveland.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at New York Jets

This is Patrick Mahomes’ first career start in New York. Hall of Famer Joe Namath is hoping this is Zach Wilson’s final start in New York.

Yes, the Jets have a great defense. But so do the Chiefs, and they have Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Word is that Taylor Swift will also be in attendance, and Kansas City is 1-0 against the spread when she is in the building.

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WagerHome BlogBest Bets for NFL Week 4

Best Bets for NFL Week 3

by WagerHome Blog on September 21, 2023

Best Bets for NFL Week 3

Television ratings are up, attendance is up, and the beginning of the NFL season has seen a significant rise in wagering. There are nine teams that have yet to lose a game in 2023, and nine teams that have yet to lose a point spread bet.

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-6.5)

The Broncos played an excellent first half of football last week, and a terrible second half. They are 0-2, many of the problems that plagued the Nathaniel Hackett-led Broncos, are still a problem a year later with Sean Payton as the head coach.

The Dolphins are firing on all cylinders, and have played eight good quarters of football in two road wins, and two road covers. Now they are at home in Miami for the first time this season, and they are a top bet to win by more than a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

Best Bets for NFL Week 3

After a big win on the road at the Bengals, and their second cover of the season, the Ravens return home in sole possession of first place in the AFC North. Only two teams in the AFC are unbeaten, and the Ravens, with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, are one of them.

Lamar Jackson looks more and more comfortable in the offense, and even though the Ravens are starting to be hit by injuries, the Indianapolis Colts are down to backup quarterback Gardner Minshew for this one. Minshew is a fine backup, but he limits the offense, and the Colts prospects at covering the spread. Look for the Ravens to win this game by double digits.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-2)

In each of his first two starts this season, Packers quarterback Jordan Love has thrown for at least three touchdown passes. Last year as the Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had just a single three-touchdown game.

The Packers offense has been really good through two weeks on the road, and now they play at Lambeau Stadium for the first time this year, against an offense not playing as well. Alvin Kamara still has two more games on his suspension, and that will continue to handicap the Saints.

The Packers will respond to the home crowd, Love will have another big game, and Green Bay will cover.

Dallas Cowboys (-12) at Arizona Cardinals

Both the Cowboys and Cardinals have started 2-0 against the spread, but that is where the similarities end. Dallas has beaten the spread by a combined 49 points, and they have outscored their opponents 70-10.

Arizona has beat the spread by a combined five points over two losses, and just played one of the worst halves of football, ever, in losing to the Giants. The Cowboys will roll by two touchdowns or more.

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WagerHome BlogBest Bets for NFL Week 3

Week 2 NFL Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 14, 2023

In NFL Week 1, the Detroit Lions got the win that justified their preseason hype. The San Francisco 49ers looked like the best team in the NFL, with the Dallas Cowboys right behind them. While the Seattle Seahawks underperformed massively, as did the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills.

It was a wild week in the greatest reality show on earth, and Week 2 promises more of the same.

NFL Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (+9) at Buffalo Bills

Where is the respect for the Raiders? They were four-point underdogs last week in Denver, and Las Vegas won the NFL game outright by stretching out of their time of possession and limiting the number of times the Broncos had the ball.

Now they are nine-point underdogs at b, a team that just lost to a reeling Jets team. If ever there was a win there for the taking, it was the Bills at the Jets, and they couldn’t get it done. Buffalo will probably get the win this week, but the spread is much too big. Look for the Raiders to cover.

NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Another underdog worth taking this week is the Baltimore Ravens. They covered the spread at home in Week 1, and now they get their top rival for the AFC North crown, a Bengals team that looked terrible at Cleveland.

Joe Burrow won’t be nearly as bad as he was last week, but the offensive line is a real concern. Instead of the new and improved line we were promised, they were a major liability. Baltimore will be able to exploit that and keep this game close.

At 2.5 points, you might want to avoid this game, but when the Ravens are getting more than a field goal, take it.


NFL Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams had an excellent showing in their Week 1 win at Seattle, and the offensive explosion came without Cooper Kupp. Turns out Matthew Stafford is still a very good quarterback, and Sean McVay is a very good NFL coach.

But, did you see the 49ers in Pittsburgh? They dominated the Steelers on both sides of the ball, and there is no reason to think that they can’t do the same at SoFi Stadium this weekend. And when you consider that the 49ers have covered each of the last seven games against their rival Rams, this bet becomes obvious.

The Rams are better than we thought, but they are still a young team that will struggle against the completeness of the 49ers. San Francisco wins this game and covers the spread.

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WagerHome BlogWeek 2 NFL Betting Preview

NFL Week 1 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 7, 2023

NFL Week 1 Betting Preview

It is finally here. All 32 NFL teams will have played their Week 1 games by the time the Bills and Jets finish things out on Monday, and the road to the Super Bowl will officially be underway.

The American Gaming Association conducted its annual preseason study, and over the course of the 272-game regular season, 73.5 million adult Americans are planning to wager on one, many, or all of the games.

Raise your hand if you are one of the 73.5 million. Now put your hand down so you can scroll through our betting preview.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-10)

There are reasons to be excited about the Texans. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud should be fun, and rookie pass rusher Will Anderson is going to be a beast. But they are rookies, playing for a rookie head coach.

The Baltimore Ravens have a healthy MVP candidate at quarterback, and a wide receiver room that has more talent than at any time in the Lamer Jackson era. The offensive line is healthy, J.K. Dobbins is back, and the Ravens are a serious Super Bowl contender, if that health can hold.

Baltimore is an elite team, and they will win their home opener by two touchdowns or more.

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Neither of the South divisions are going to be good this year, but the Saints look like the best team in the NFC South. They should also get plenty of wins against the AFC South, with the exception being the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Saints have the better defense, the better quarterback, and with the health of Michael Thomas, the better wide receivers. Derrick Henry is not going to be enough for the Titans to keep this close. The Saints offense looks good with Derek Carr, Chris Olave, and Thomas. They will look good on Sunday at home, and cover the field goal spread.

NFL Week 1

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+2.5)

Monday night at MetLife will be the loudest regular season game ever for the Jets. Generations of Jets frustration will be let out, as they welcome Aaron Rodgers to town.

The stars are too aligned to make New York home underdogs, so we’re taking the points. Keep in mind that with Zach Wilson at quarterback, the Jets defense orchestrated an upset of the Bills last year.

Without Von Miller the Buffalo pass rush won’t be a factor, and Rodgers, recognizing the importance of winning the opener against the defending division champion, will respond. Take the Jets and the points.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 1 Betting Preview

NFL 2023 Kickoff Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 5, 2023

Give yourself a round of applause. You have survived another NFL offseason. On Thursday, the new 2023 season kicks off in Kansas City, as the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs hang their banner with the Detroit Lions in town.

The NFL moved to a single-game Thursday kickoff in 2002, and since 2004, it has been a tradition to have that game hosted by the defending Super Bowl champions. There will be concerts, a larger-than-normal tailgate at Arrowhead Stadium, and a full celebration of the 272 games of the regular season to come.

Amid all the pomp and circumstance, there will be a football game. A pretty good football game at that. And there will be NFL betting.

NFL Week 1: Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

If there is one team that is impossible to hate, it is the Detroit Lions. Their starting quarterback, Jared Goff, is engaged to a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model. Their head coach is ranked No. 1 on everyone’s list of “want to have a beer with.” Their fans have been battered by bad teams since the 1950s, yet they remain loyal.

There is something about the city of Detroit and something about the Lions that you want to root for.

And to top it off, they are actually a good team. They are favored to win the NFC North because they have one of the best offenses in the NFL. We won’t see Jameson Williams to begin the season, but in the age of diminishing running back returns, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is an exciting one to watch.


The Kansas City Chiefs are also a pretty good team. For each of the five years that Partick Mahomes has been the quarterback, they have hosted the AFC Championship Game. Twice, they have won the Super Bowl with Mahomes, and they are the preseason betting favorite to win a third.

Chris Jones remains a holdout, which will hurt the Chiefs pass rush. Can the Lions take advantage of that? Maybe, on offense. But the Chiefs offense should have its way with a suspect Lions defense.

Game Pick: Chiefs (-7)

Andy Reid is 9-1 in Week 1 as the head coach of the Chiefs, 5-0 with Mahomes as the starting quarterback, and Mahomes has 18 Week 1 touchdown passes and no interceptions.

In these five season-openers, the Chiefs have won them all by an average of 13 points, and four of the five wins were by at least 10 points. Go with the Chiefs at home.

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WagerHome BlogNFL 2023 Kickoff Betting Preview

NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 17, 2023

We’ve got NFL preseason games all weekend long, including our first Monday night game of the season. And that means there is a full weekend of NFL betting.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-6) – Friday

It is official. Bijan Robinson, one of the most anticipated running back prospects in years, will make his Falcons debut against the Bengals on Friday night.

Falcons head coach Arthur Smith was a bit of a party pooper, adding to the announcement;

“We’re not going to go crazy. We just need the reps.”

Three reps, ten reps, all signs point to Robinson being worth your time. He’s had a great training camp for the Falcons, and his first time on an NFL field, even in the preseason, will be an event.

NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Preview

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) – Saturday

These two teams play just 180 miles away from each other, and these two starting quarterbacks are separated by just one-hundredth of a second. A centisecond, as 0.01 is known, was the difference between the 40-time for Bears quarterback Justin Fields at the NFL combine and what Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson ran.

Richardson has been named QB1, and he will get reps. Fields will play again this preseason, and hopefully, it will be this week. The quarterback track meet would be fun to watch.

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers – Sunday

Derek Carr continues his trip around the AFC West. Last week he played the Chiefs, a team he faced 17 times as the quarterback of the Raiders. Now he gets the Chargers, a team he faced 18 times when they were division rivals.

He looked sharp last week, and all of his offensive pieces are healthy and clicking. Justin Herbert never plays in the preseason, which makes the Saints a deserved favorite at SoFi on Sunday.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Washington Commanders – Monday

Rivals by proximity, for the majority of the Ravens’ tenure in Baltimore, they have been a much better team than the Washington Commanders. But Monday’s game might be rather spicey after the two teams get involved in multiple brawls this week at a joint practice.

Players are tired of hitting their teammates, they like hitting other teams, and that can lead to hot tempers. Although the body slam of Commanders’ corner Danny Johnson by Ravens tight end Mark Andrews went well beyond frayed tempers.

Watch the game because the Ravens never lose in the preseason. Enjoy the game because these two teams don’t like each other.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Preview

Running Back Additions in the AFC East

by WagerHome Blog on August 15, 2023

It’s not very often that teams in the middle of the preseason can add an impact free agent. But when you consider what is happening in the AFC East running back market, these are not normal times.

Early on Monday, the New England Patriots announced that they were signing former Cowboys star running back Ezekiel Elliott. Not to be outdone, a few hours later, the New York Jets announced that they had come to terms with former Vikings star running back Dalvin Cook.

It’s a four-team race in what may be the most competitive division in football, and two of the four offenses just got better.

AFC East News: Ezekiel Elliott’s Impact in New England

The Patriots have the longest odds of anyone in the AFC East, paying +800 to win the division. That didn’t change with the signing of Elliott, but the makeup of their backfield did change.

Head coach Bill Belichick likes third-year running back Rhamondre Stevenson, but they were very clear about their intent to add a veteran back to the mix. They flirted with Dalvin Cook and had camp visits with Leonard Fournette and Darrell Henderson. But in Elliott, they get someone who is especially good at finding the endzone.

Elliott has 80 career touchdowns, including 12 last year, and he has as many 50 catches in a season three times. As a third-down option and redzone target, Zeke is a great addition for the Patriots.

Back when Zeke became a free agent in March, the Patriots weren’t even in the top 10 favorites to sign him.

Running Back Additions in the AFC East

AFC East News: Jets All-In on 2023

After an offseason that saw the Jets completely remake their offense, they have added one final piece that could put them over the top. New York is high on second-year running back Breece Hall, but early in the season, he is still going to be slowed by last year’s knee injury.

The signing of Dalvin Cook gives the Jets cover for Hall in the short term and a terrific tandem of running backs for later in the season. There is no time like the present in New York. This is a team built to win now, and the signing of Cook for $8.6 million for one season is about winning a division and making a Super Bowl run.

New York is +270 to win the AFC East, which puts them second behind the Buffalo Bills. But they are -130 to make the playoffs. This kind of opportunity doesn’t come along often for the Jets, and Cook will help make sure they don’t waste it.

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WagerHome BlogRunning Back Additions in the AFC East