NFL Draft Betting Preview

NFL Draft Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on April 25, 2023

The biggest sporting event of the week is Thursday’s NFL Draft, which is expected to have more than 300,000 fans in attendance at Kansas City’s Union Station, and another 10-plus million people watching on television.

The Aaron Rodgers trade has been completed, and it will change things for Thursday and Friday. The two teams swap first round picks, giving Green Bay the No. 13 pick and the Jets the No. 15 pick.

The Packers also get a second round pick (No. 42), a sixth round pick (No. 207), and a second round pick in 2024 that will move to a first round pick if Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps.

Along with the QB in question, the Jets get Green Bay’s fifth round pick this year (No. 170).

With at least one big draft day trade off the table, the betting markets are heating up.

NFL Draft – First Overall Pick

  • Bryce Young (-2000)
  • C.J. Stroud (+900)
  • Anthony Richardson (+1500)

Alabama quarterback Bryce Young is now the heavy favorite to go No. 1 overall to Carolina. Just a couple of weeks ago, this was supposed to be a close race.

Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud is now playing +900, and Florida QB Anthony Richardson is third at +1500. No one else is a real possibility.

NFL Draft Betting Preview

NFL Draft – Second Overall Pick

  • Will Levis (-130)
  • Tyree Wilson (+240)
  • C.J. Stroud (+275)
  • Will Anderson (+285)
  • Anthony Richardson (+1800)

What is happening at No. 2, the pick currently owned by the Texans? There was talk that Houston would skip on a quarterback and take the best defensive player available, which was going to be Will Anderson from Alabama. But now Texas Tech EDGE Tyree Wilson is above him, and Kentucky quarterback Will Levis has somehow risen to the top.

NFL Draft – Third Overall Pick

  • C.J. Stroud (+230)
  • Tyree Wilson (+250)
  • Will Anderson (+250)
  • Paris Johnson Jr. (+350)
  • Anthony Richardson (+500)
  • Will Levis (+900)

The Arizona Cardinals currently own the No. 3 overall pick, so if Stroud really does go here, it is likely to be after a trade. But Arizona has a lot of needs, so Wilson, Anderson, or offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. would all make sense.

NFL Draft – Quarterbacks Taken in First Round

  • Over 4.5 (-200)
  • Under 4.5 (+250)

We can get to four first round quarterbacks quite easily, with Young, Stroud, Richardson, and Levis. If there is going to be a fifth quarterback taken, it would likely be Hendon Hooker from Tennessee or Tanner McKee from Stanford.

Pay Per Head Software

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NFL

NFL Betting Championship Weekend

by WagerHome Blog on January 25, 2023

We had 272 regular season games, there have been ten postseason games, and we are now down to three games left. Two of those three are this Sunday, giving the NFL bettors one last weekend to wager on multiple games.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

The first game on Sunday is for the NFC Championship. This is the third trip to this game in four years for the 49ers, and this is the Eagle’s first NFC Championship appearance since they won the Super Bowl five years ago.

These are the two best teams in the NFC, and this is the matchup that most NFL fans have been hoping to see since the 49ers began their 12-game winning streak. San Francisco has the best scoring defense in the NFL. The Eagles are eighth. The Eagles have the second-best scoring offense in the NFL, while the 49ers are sixth.

On both sides of the ball, it is strength on strength, and on the sidelines, we have two of the finalists for NFL Coach of the Year. In two years, Nick Sirianni has taken the four-win Eagles to a 14-win team that is one win from the Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan twice lost his starting quarterback this season but has his team one win from their second Super Bowl appearance in four years.

This is going to be a classic game between two teams playing at their peaks. But the edge has to go to Philadelphia because quarterback Jalen Hurts played like an MVP. Brock Purdy is just making the ninth start of his career.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5)

The Chiefs avoided total disaster with the injury to Patrick Mahomes in the Divisional Round. It looked like the kind of tackle that resulted in a broken leg. Instead, it was just sprained ankle, albeit of the high ankle sprain variety, which is the most serious of sprained ankles.

Patrick Mahomes will play this Sunday against the Bengals in the rematch of last year’s AFC Championship, won by Cincinnati in overtime. But he will be far less mobile than normal and not quite the Mahomes we’re used to seeing. And this is where having Andy Reid as your head coach is so valuable. If anyone can create a game plan that succeeds with Mahomes staying in the pocket, it is Reid.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals rolled to victory over the Bills last week and are playing excellent football. But the offensive line is banged up, and the Chiefs finished second in the NFL in sacks this season. Where Buffalo failed, the Chiefs will succeed, and Burrow will face just enough pressure to open the door for Kansas City to avenge last year’s loss.

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Super Bowl

Super Bowl LVII MVP Odds

by WagerHome Blog on January 24, 2023

We won’t know the teams playing in the Super Bowl until around 9:30pm ET on Sunday. But you can currently place wagers on which player will win the Super Bowl MVP, not to be decided until February 12.

Not surprisingly, the four starting quarterbacks lead the way.

Joe Burrow (+330)

Current betting odds have the Eagles as the slight favorites to win the Super Bowl, but the Super Bowl MVP odds lean slightly in favor of Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. He is favored to win this Sunday against the Chiefs, and if he is in the Super Bowl, he will be the only quarterback in the game who has been there before.

Jalen Hurts (+350)

 

Super Bowl

His Eagles are favored to beat the 49ers and go to the Super Bowl, and Jalen Hurts is a 2nd Team All-Pro selection. So naturally he would be right on the heels of Burrow as the favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP. And if not for an injury over the final three weeks of the season, he very well could have been the season’s MVP.

Patrick Mahomes +350

Patrick Mahomes is the presumptive MVP after leading the league in passing yards, total yards, passing touchdowns, and total touchdowns. He’s a 1st Team All-Pro for the second time in his career, and he has previously won a Super Bowl MVP.

If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t win the award.

Brock Purdy +750

Niners rookie quarterback Brock Purdy the lowest rated of the four starting quarterbacks because he is the rookie, and the 49ers have so many other possible MVP candidates. Six of the last 10 SB MVPs have been quarterbacks, so Purdy would be the most likely candidate in a San Francisco win. But of all of the four teams, they have the most “other” possibilities.

Non-Quarterback Leaders

The other 49ers that aren’t quarterbacks who might be a Super Bowl MVPs are led by Christian McCaffrey at +1500. He has the shortest odds of everyone who isn’t one of the four starting quarterbacks.

Behind McCaffrey are the best pass catches on each of the four teams: Ja’Marr Chase (+2000), Travis Kelce (+2500), Deebo Samuel (+2800), and A.J. Brown (+3000).

Defensive Leaders

The last defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP was Von Miller in Super Bowl 50. Two years before that, Seahawks linebacker Malcolm Smith won the award, but those two are the defensive players to win in the last 20 years.

Nick Bosa has the shortest odds of any defensive player in this year’s final four at +4000. The only other defensive player within shouting distance is the Chiefs Chris Jones, paying +6000.

Pay Per Head Software

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Quarterbacks

Where Will the Quarterbacks Go?

by WagerHome Blog on January 19, 2023

The NFL isn’t just from August to February, and the betting on the NFL isn’t limited to just the games on the field. The most important position in sports is quarterback, and with a number of quarterbacks hitting the free agent market this offseason, you can wager on where they will play next season.

Lamar Jackson

The Ravens and Lamar Jackson appear to be headed for a split. Jackson didn’t travel to Cincinnati for the team’s playoff game, even though he was there just one week earlier for the final regular season game. And head coach John Harbaugh has continued to treat the injury to his star as an annoyance.

The franchise tag is still in play, but if Jackson doesn’t play in Baltimore next season, where do the betting odds say he is most likely to go?

New York Jets (+250)
Atlanta Falcons (+350)
Las Vegas Raiders (+750)
Carolina Panthers (+750)

The most intriguing of these is the Atlanta Falcons, who have an offense already built around running quarterback in Marcus Mariota. Jackon to Atlanta would make them the favorites to win the NFC South.

Tom Brady

Quarterbacks
Most people close to Tom Brady think that he will put off retirement for at least another season. They also believe that quarterback Brady and the Buccaneers are likely moving on from one another after a disappointing end to a disappointing season. Where could the GOAT end up in 2023?

Las Vegas Raiders (+250)
New York Jets (+350)
New England Patriots (+500)
Miami Dolphins (+600)
San Francisco 49ers (+700)

Brady’s old offensive coordinator is now the head coach in Las Vegas, and the Jets have said that they are prepared to go all-in on bringing in a veteran quarterback. As places where Brady could win, both the Raiders and Jets make sense. And as a Jets quarterback, he would get to match wits with Bill Belichick twice next season.

Aaron Rodgers

We may have seen the end of Aaron Rodgers in a Green Bay Packers uniform. Either by retirement, or by moving to another team, he certainly is sounding like someone who is tired of playing for the Packers. He said this week that he thinks he can win another MVP award if he is in the right situation. Where might that be?

Las Vegas Raiders (+400)
New York Jets (+500)
Indianapolis Colts (+500)
Tennessee Titans (+500)

With Derek Carr on the way out in Las Vegas, reuniting Rodgers with Davante Adams makes a lot of sense. Rodgers will want a place with established weapons, like Adams and tight-end Darren Waller. He would also find that same with the Jets with rookie Garrett Wilson. Although with Brett Favre having gone from the Packers to the Jets, would Rodgers want to follow those same footsteps?

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogWhere Will the Quarterbacks Go?

NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on January 10, 2023

The NFL regular season is behind us and now the path to Super Bowl LVII begins with all eyes on State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on the second Sunday in February. Over the next three weekends the NFL will whittle down from 14 playoff teams to two Super Bowl contestants.

The playoffs begin this weekend with six games, spread out over three days for Wild Card Weekend. Four of the six home teams are favorites this weekend, with the two Florida teams Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, as underdogs.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

The first game of the weekend could be the biggest mismatch in the NFC. Seattle was the last team in, and they needed help as Detroit beat Green Bay in the last game of the regular season. Their reward is a trip to face NFC West rival, San Francisco, quite possibly the hottest team in the NFL.

The 49ers beat Seattle twice this season, 27-7 at home in Week 2 and 21-13 on the road in Week 15. San Francisco has won 10 in a row and despite a rookie third-string quarterback in Brock Purdy, they are thriving. A lights-out defense and multiple playmakers like Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle lead the Niners to a cover.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1)

The Jaguars are one of the two home underdogs, as they won the AFC South on Saturday with a late defensive touchdown. The Chargers have been up and down all season, mostly because of key injuries, but they have won four of their last five to make the playoffs.

Jacksonville has won five in a row, and they throttled the Chargers 38-10 on the road back in September. Don’t be surprised if Trevor Lawrence and his young crew pull off the upset and move on.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)

No offense to the Miami Dolphins, but they have no chance in this game. The atmosphere in Buffalo is going to be insane, the temperature is going to be in the low 20’s with snow possible, and if Damar Hamlin makes an appearance to inspire the Bills, this one will get out of hand early.

Buffalo could become America’s team this month. Look for a big cover against a team they split with in the regular season.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

NFL

Another regular season rematch as the Giants head to Minnesota. The Vikings needed a last-second 61-yard field goal to beat New York on Dec. 17. The Giants put 445 yards on the Minnesota defense that has allowed at least 24 points in four of the last five games.

Minnesota is 11-0 in one-score games, but they have a horrible playoff history, even at home. Take the points with the visiting Giants.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

Another division rivalry with a third game of the season in the playoffs. The Ravens won at home in October 19-17, while the Bengals won at home last week 27-16 to clinch the division. Joe Burrow and company are ready to prove last year wasn’t a fluke, and their path back to the Super Bowl starts with a team they know very well.

Betting on this game all revolves around the health of Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson. If he is playing, the line will likely come down, and if not, the Bengals roll.

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

Tampa Bay started the season with a win in Dallas, 19-3 as Dak Prescott was injured. The Cowboys are limping into the playoffs with a loss to Washington, and Prescott has thrown 15 interceptions on the season, despite missing five games.

When it all comes down to it are you betting against Tom Brady, at home, in the playoffs? No chance. Take the points and the Bucs against a Cowboys team that has plenty left to prove.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Picks

NFL Week 18 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on January 3, 2023

One more week of regular season football, and three playoff spots have still yet to be handed out. Eight NFL teams have a chance to win one of those spots.

It’s put up or shut up in the final week of the regular season.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)

The scenario is simple for this game. Win, and you win the division. In fact, that scenario has been in place for a couple of weeks. The Titans rested a number of their NFL players last week in preparation for the win-and-in game in Jacksonville.

At the most important position on the NFL field, however, no amount of resting can help Tennessee. They are down to a third-string quarterback in Joshua Dobbs, and the Jaguars are getting great NFL play from Trevor Lawrence. At home, the Jags win by more than a touchdown and cover the spread.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

When December began, the Packers were 4-8, and people were calling for the end of the Aaron Rodgers era. Now that we are in January, the Packers are 8-8 and in control of their own playoff destiny. Beat the Lions on Sunday night, and the No. 7 seed in the NFC is theirs.

For the Lions, they too, can get in with a win in this game and help against the Seahawks. If the Rams beat Seattle, and Detroit wins in Lambeau, they are the No. 7 seed. Sadly that is unlikely to happen for Lions fans. Detroit is a very different NFL team on the road, and Green Bay will win and cover.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Speaking of those Seahawks, they actually play before the Packers play, so they will do whatever they can to win, even if it is a win without a playoff appearance as a reward. But the Rams also want to win. Beating their rivals, ending the season on a high note, and finding out if there really could be a future with Baker Mayfield are all things on the agenda.

It won’t matter. The 12th man in Seattle will bring it, and at home, the Seahawks will win by a touchdown.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (Pick‘em)

The New York Jets have played themselves out of the playoffs with five straight losses. The Dolphins have almost played themselves out of the playoffs with five losses of their own.

If the Patriots win on Sunday, they are in the playoffs. But if New England loses, and the Dolphins win with a backup quarterback, they are the AFC’s final Wild Card team.

It’s a pick’em, and considering the stakes, we’re picking the Dolphins at home.

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NFL

NFL Week 17 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 27, 2022

Two weeks are left in the season, and nine of the 14 NFL playoff spots have been claimed. Although we don’t yet know where any of those nine teams will be seeded. That, along with the five remaining playoff teams, as well as four division titles, are still to be decided.

It’s the NFL’s sprint to the end of the regular season, and these are the most fun games to wager in Week 17.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5)

Detroit’s playoff chances took a hit with last weekend’s loss to the Panthers. But if they win this week and next and just get a little bit of help, they can still be a postseason team.

Back home in the dome and against the Chicago defense, the Lions should be fine. The one caveat is that Justin Fields ran for 147 yards against them in their last meeting. Just hold Fields to 100 yards, and Detroit will win this game by at least a touchdown. Give the points, enjoy Fields, and watch the Lions cover.

New York Jets (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Mike White is back at quarterback for the Jets, and at least for one week, he will keep New York’s NFL season alive. The Jets’ defense will put the clamps on a struggling Geno Smith, and White will generate enough points to get the low-scoring win.

New York takes this game 23-16, and they go to Miami in Week 18, still in the NFL playoff hunt.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)

The Packers were dead and buried, and the only thing that would cure their staleness in 2023 was the end of the Aaron Rodgers era. Not. So. Fast, says the reigning MVP.

Green Bay has an offense again, they have three straight wins, and if a couple of things fall their way, the Packers will be in the NFL playoffs. One of those things is winning this week against the Vikings at Lambeau Field – something that the Packers did exactly one year ago, 37-10.

The Vikings are a different team outside, and they will lose to Green Bay, 27-20.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (+1)

The game of the week, and maybe the game of the year, is Monday night in Cincinnati. The reigning AFC champion Bengals, hosting the current top seed in the AFC, the Bills. Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen is always great, but as the final game of Week 17, it promises to be a classic.

The Bills have been struggling to put lesser teams away, and the Bengals right now are not a lesser team. At home in front of a crazy crowd in the Jungle, Cincinnati will get the win, 27-24.

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NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 22, 2022

We went from one team with a clinched playoff berth, to six. We had the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL, and the Bills became a playoff team in the most appropriate possible setting – the snow.

The Jaguars are for real, so are the Lions, and the Patriots suffered a loss we will be talking about for decades.

How can NFL Week 16 possibly top that?

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

It’s hard to know what to make of a division-clinching NFL game that saw the Vikings fall behind 33-0 at halftime, only to have them storm back to win 39-36. The truth is, probably not much. They are neither of those teams and instead somewhere in the middle. And that middle, especially at home, is good enough to beat the Giants by more than a field goal.

New York is probably going to end up in the NFL playoffs, but don’t trust them this week. Give the points and take the Vikings.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

Do not adjust your settings. The Detroit Lions are a good team and a good bet to make the playoffs. They are not in the playoff picture just yet, still a half-game back of the Commanders for the seventh spot. But the Lions have a favorable schedule, beginning with this game at Carolina.

The Lions have won six of their last seven, covering the spread in all seven NFL games, and this week they will make it eight in a row.

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

The 49ers are the champions of the NFC West, and the No. 2 seed in the NFC is still in sight. It may be that it doesn’t really matter who plays quarterback for this team. Jimmy Garoppolo or Brock Purdy, the team hasn’t changed. Outside of Philadelphia, they have been the most consistently good team in the conference.

Washington is currently a playoff team, but they are nowhere close to San Francisco. The 49ers will win this game and cover the spread for the sixth straight NFL game.

Philadelphia Eagles (+6) at Dallas Cowboys

A couple of weeks ago, this was going to be the game of the year. Certainly, it was going to be the game of the year in the NFC East. But the Cowboys’ hopes for the division are holding on by a fingernail after they lost last week to Jacksonville, and now we’re not sure if Jalen Hurts will be able to play.

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni isn’t ruling Hurts out, but he is preparing Gardner Minshew just in case. And even if Minshew starts, we still like the Eagles to cover.

Pay Per Head Software

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NFL Week 15 Betting Picks

NFL Week 15 Best Bets (Sponsored by Wagerhome.com)

by WagerHome Blog on December 13, 2022

Four weeks remain in the NFL schedule, and only one team has officially punched its ticket for the postseason. The Eagles are that guaranteed postseason participant, while 28 other teams battle it out for the other 13 spots. Three teams, the Texans, Bears, and Broncos, have officially been eliminated.

There are a number of games with NFL playoff implications this week, and a number of them are worth betting on.

Miami Dolphins (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills

The final game of the Dolphins‘ three-game road trip is the most important game – a do-or-die meeting with the Bills. If Miami wants to win the division, they must win this game. Otherwise, they will be stuck at the bottom of the playoff hopefuls battling for a NFL Wild Card spot. That is more precarious for Miami now that they lost the tiebreaker with the Chargers.

Buffalo is doing what it needs to win each week, and they will get the win on Saturday at home. But, the Bills have covered in only two of their last seven games, and they won’t cover here. Take the points.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4)

Sadly the Saints weren’t able to hold on to their lead over the Bucs in Week 13. Had New Orleans won that game, we would have a four-team tie for first place in the NFC South, setting us up for a crazy final month.

As it is, the Falcons are just a game behind the Bucs for the division, and they host the Bucs in Week 18. This week they are giving Desmond Ridder his first career start at quarterback, and what can we expect? We’re likely going to see a more experienced Saints team get the win and get the cover.

NFL Week 15 Betting Picks

Tennessee Titans (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers

Three straight losses for the Titans has taken their sure AFC South title and put it in doubt. Their lead in the division is just two NFL games, and every win matters at this point, especially with Dallas still on the schedule and Jacksonville to end the year.

The Chargers are in need of the win too, but they will not be able to handle Derrick Henry to make it happen. The Titans will get the win.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-4.5)

The last time the Commanders played they were tying the Giants. The last time the Giants played they were getting worked over by the Eagles. For Washington, the bye week and the extra attention they were able to pay to correcting their mistakes in NFL Week 13 will make the difference here.

New York is more banged up, they haven’t won in a month, and they won’t win. Give the points and take the Commanders.

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NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 5, 2022

The Bills are back in the driver’s seat in the AFC, and the Eagles have strapped themselves even tighter to the seat in the NFC. As the playoff picture begins to take shape, and some teams rise, and other teams fall, we have a great slate of games to wager for NFL Week 14.

New York Jets (+9) at Buffalo Bills

This is not a bet against Buffalo winning this NFL game. They are better than the Jets, and they are at home. But New York defensively matches up well with the Bills, as evidenced by their earlier win in New York, and they will keep this game close.

The Bills win, but they’ve only covered two of their last six-point spreads, and they won’t do it here, either.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Tennessee has lost two straight games, and a lot of bettors are jumping off the bandwagon. Don’t you join them. These two losses have come against the Bengals and Eagles – two teams at the height of their powers – and before that, the Titans had covered eight consecutive point spreads.

Trevor Lawrence struggled against a bad Detroit defense, and he will struggle on the road in Tennessee. Look for the Titans to win by six or seven points and cover this spread.

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

On December 27th, 1999, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was born. Five days later, at the Orange Bowl, Tom Brady played his final game at the University of Michigan before entering the NFL. On Sunday, they will be starting for two of the four first-place teams in the NFC.

Purdy has the good fortune of having better weapons around him, a better offensive line, and a much better defense, playing some of the best football in the NFL.

The 49ers lost their second-half shutout streak, but it was just a touchdown to a very good Miami offense. This is a bad Tampa Bay offense, and the better bet is on Purdy and the Niners to cover.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (OVER 52.0)

The Dolphins are coming off a strange loss. They averaged 6.8 yards per play for the game, but they were just 0-for-7 on third downs. It’s incredible yardage efficiency, undone by a terrible conversion rate that had them running 34 fewer plays than San Francisco, and scoring 16 fewer points.

L.A.’s defense is not good, and the Dolphins should get back on track. The Chargers should also find success downfield, making the OVER of 52.0 the best play of this game.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 14 Betting Picks

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