Weekly Bookie Betting Report- Sept. 20

by Blog Writer on September 20, 2019

September presses on with the first few weeks of the new football season dominating the US sports betting scene. The college season heads into Week 4 while the NFL gears up for its third week of games. The final few weeks of the MLB regular season is still attracting some baseball betting action, especially on games in the tight NL Central Division title race.

One of the stronger betting tendencies in the NFL is overreactions to the early results. Teams like New England and Kansas City in the AFC and Dallas and the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC have been dominant in their first two games. However, the overall results have been highly favorable to bookies with underdogs covering at a much higher rate.

Quickly moving betting lines can save your bookie business

Quickly moving betting lines can save your bookie business

The ability to quickly move betting lines with your quality pay per head service while making changes to your betting board is vital in the early weeks of the football season given the knee-jerk reaction of bettors this time of the year.

Season-to-Date Football Betting Results

Through the first three weeks of games, college football favorites have won 87.2 percent of the time straight-up to add some higher value on betting moneylines. Factoring in the closing spread, things even out with favorites covering in 52.2 percent of the games.

One trend really benefitting bookies is the tight winning percentages against the spread for home teams (49.5%) vs. road teams (50.5%). The closing total line slightly favors the UNDER at 52.2%.

Turning to the betting trends through the first two weeks of the NFL season, the favorites have only won 64.5 percent of the time SU. The home team’s winning percentage stands at 45.2%.

Betting road dogs ATS continues to be the strongest play with a winning rate of 72.2 percent in 19 games. In contrast, home dogs have only covered 38.5 percent of the time through 13 games.


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Underdogs in general have covered 58.1 percent of the time. Betting the UNDER on the total line has been a profitable play with a winning rate of 62.5%.

Turning to last week’s results in Westgate’s NFL SuperContest, players were all over Cleveland with 2053 picks to easily top the list. Dallas and Pittsburgh were second on the list at 966 picks with Cincinnati (804) and the Los Angeles Rams (785) rounding out the Top 5 teams.

Early NFL Week 3 Consensus Picks

The early betting consensus for Week 3 NFL games heavily leans towards the Rams as three-point road favorites against Cleveland for Sunday Night Football’s featured matchup. Also high on the list is New England as a 22.5-point home favorite against the New York Jets.

Bettors are also jumping on Dallas as a 21.5-point home favorite against the Miami Dolphins. The Arizona Cardinals are attracting quite a bit of action as slight 2.5-point home underdogs against Carolina with Panthers’ quarterback Cam Newton still questionable for Sunday’s contest.

This Weekend’s Big Betting Games

The Big Ten is in the spotlight on this Saturday’s college football slate with No. 11 Michigan on the road against No. 13 Wisconsin in a huge inter-division showdown. The Badgers are favored by 3.5 points at home and they have covered ATS in their last five home games against the Wolverines. The total for this 12 p.m. kickoff on FOX is set at 44 points.

The Badgers are favored by 3.5 points over the Wolverines at home

The Badgers are favored by 3.5 points over the Wolverines at home

One of the top matchups on Sunday’s NFL slate pits the 2-0 Baltimore Ravens on the road against the 2-0 Kansas City Chiefs in a 1 p.m. start on CBS. The Chiefs are favored by 6.5 points with the total set at 52.5 points. The Ravens have a slight 4-2 edge ATS in their last six games against Kansas City.

MLB bettors can look forward to a huge NL Central showdown between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs in an extended four-game series starting on Thursday night at Wrigley Field.

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Blog WriterWeekly Bookie Betting Report- Sept. 20

NFL Week 2 2019 | Week in Review

by Blog Writer on September 18, 2019

The NFL betting world can calm down now. After the typical Week 1 overreactions, Week 2 showed bettors that one week does not make a season. For some teams, Week 2 was the entire season as the theme was injuries. We’ll bring you the NFL Week 2 2019 Week in Review.

There were quite a few that will affect the rest of the 2019 season. We saw some big line changes in the Browns-Jets game due to Jets QB Sam Darnold’s case of mononucleosis. Remember, you can track line changes with the right pay per head software. On to the Week 2 recap…

WINNERS

A number of teams remained 2-0 SU with wins in Week 2. The Patriots, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, Bills, Ravens, Packers, Chiefs, and Cowboys all remain unbeaten. The Patriots were the weekend’s biggest favorite at -18 over the dumpster fire that is the Miami Dolphins. New England assured it would cover with two pick-six touchdown returns within two minutes of each other.

The Chiefs were a 7-point favorite over their rival Oakland. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes threw four second quarter touchdowns to ensure the Chiefs would cover. The Ravens weren’t as fortunate. Baltimore was a 13-point favorite against Arizona and failed to cover. The Ravens actually had the ball at the Cardinals 5-yard line with 1:21 to play but decided to run the clock out.

The Ravens are 2-0, but failed to cover against the Cardinals

The Ravens are 2-0, but failed to cover against the Cardinals

Pittsburgh was a four-point favorite at home against Seattle, but fell victim to the upset. The Seahawks won 28-26. It was one of five upsets in Week 2. Detroit got a 31-yard Matthew Stafford TD pass with 7:21 to play to beat the Chargers who were 2.5-point favorites.

Julio Jones turned a short pass into a 54-yard touchdown and the Falcons beat Philadelphia, a 1-point favorite. Tampa Bay beat Carolina in Charlotte. The Panthers were 6.5-point favorites. Tennessee was a 3-point favorite but lost to Indianapolis 19-17.


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INJURIES & FANTASY

The big news from Week 2 revolves around injuries, especially those suffered by quarterbacks. Fantasy owners will want to act quickly as Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger is out for the season. Roethlisberger suffered an elbow injury that will require surgery.

Brees' injury will sideline him 6-8 weeks

Brees’ injury will sideline him 6-8 weeks

New Orleans will be without Drew Brees who injured the thumb on his throwing hand. While not as serious as Roethlisberger, Brees will have surgery to repair the damage and will miss at least six weeks. Both injuries will surely affect betting lines in the weeks to come. Bookie software can help aspiring bookmakers track those changes.

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CONTEST UPDATES

Five entries in the Westgate SuperContest remain unbeaten at 10-0 – Phat Cat, Dead Last, TUCO, The 801 Crew, and Rabbit Hunting. All five bet on Cleveland and the New York Jets. Another five entries went 5-0 for the week to remain 9-1 on the season.

The most picked game in the Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest was the Steelers at -4. Mikeybarts 1-1 and Mikeybarts 1-2 remain tied at the top of the leaderboard with 9.5 points. Four other entries are tied for third with 9.0 points.

Two teams remain tied for first in the Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge. Rizzo (11-1-2) and Cuseboy (12-2-0) each have 12 points out of a possible 14. Cousin Sal went a perfect 7-0 in Week 2 choosing the following: Houston Cougars +7, West Virginia +6.5, Temple+7, Oklahoma -22.5, Kansas City -7.5, Denver +2.5, and Atlanta +1.5. Last year’s champion Monsterloc sits in 13th place.

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Blog WriterNFL Week 2 2019 | Week in Review

A Look at Your Best Bets for NFL Week 2

by Blog Writer on September 14, 2019

After Week 1 of the new NFL season, you are going to hear it all. The Dolphins are no better than an average college team. The Bears might never score again. Atlanta’s horrible and Lamar Jackson is going to win the league’s MVP award. Your bookie software might be going a little hyperactive, but don’t worry it will calm down. We’ll have a look at your best bets for NFL Week 2. We learned plenty in Week 1 and we’ve seen plenty of line action as we head into Week 2.

Patriots-Dolphins Movement

After last week’s fiasco – a 59-10 loss to Baltimore – the Dolphins opened as 15-point underdogs against New England. If sportsbooks were thinking the +15 would be enough to get the sharps betting on Miami, they were mistaken. The line has moved as high as +19.5 at Matchbook.

The Pats are as high as a 19.5-point favorite

The Pats are as high as a 19.5-point favorite

Fun fact: no team in the Super Bowl era has ever been favored by more than 18 points playing on the road before October. The Patriots are the first. There have been two 18-point favorites, one in 1969 and the other in 1970. On both occasions, the underdog was shut out and failed to cover.

Easy on the Ravens Love

Lamar Jackson had a great day last week. He threw five touchdown passes and Baltimore rolled up nearly 650 yards of total offense. They also did it against what is likely the worst defense in the NFL. The Ravens opened as a 13-point favorite and the line has not moved much.

What has shifted is the Total.

After opening at 42.5, the Total shot up to 46.5 where it currently sits at most of the top online sportsbooks. The Cardinals defense gave up 27 points to Detroit last week, while rookie QB Kyler Murray led a furious comeback to produce 27 points for Arizona.

Hey, mix the Ravens and Cardinals together and you see why the sharps are betting the Over.

 


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Rematch

The Saints and Rams meet once again in a rematch of last year’s NFC title game.

The infamous Saints no-call

The infamous Saints no-call

In regular season games, the home team has won this game on the past six occasions. That includes last year’s 45-35 Saints win in New Orleans. It’s no surprise then that the Rams opened as 2.5-point favorites.

The Total opened at 54, but was pushed down as low as 52 by early betting action. Both teams can push the pace on offense. Last season, the Rams and Saints finished second and third in the league, respectively, in scoring. Expect a lot of points and keep in mind that New Orleans is 21-8 ATS when playing as an underdog.

QB Issues

With the right pay per head service, you can sit back and relax even as some lines go crazy, like those with the Browns and Jets. Cleveland opened as a three-point favorite on the road, but after a poor performance last Sunday, the line dropped to -2.5. Concerns over Jets RB Le’Veon Bell and LB C.J. Mosley moved the line back to 3.0.

Then, it got seemingly worse for the Jets. Quarterback Sam Darnold was diagnosed with mono and is out indefinitely. That means backup Trevor Siemian will start. Lines shifted dramatically with the Browns now a 6.5-point favorite. If Bell and Mosley play, this could be interesting. The last time Cleveland was favored on the road by at least five points was 1995.

Yes, Bill Belichick was the Browns head coach.

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Blog WriterA Look at Your Best Bets for NFL Week 2

Weekly Bookie Betting Report- Sept. 12

by Blog Writer on September 12, 2019

The first two weeks of the college football season are in the books along with the opening round of games in a new NFL season. Along with the race to the MLB playoffs and this year’s World Series, the betting action has been hot across the board in the early part of September. Here is your Weekly Bookie Betting Report for September 12th, 2019.


Your Sportsbook Solution leaders

Your Sportsbook Solution leaders

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Offering a diversified betting board is a key aspect of improving any private bookie’s overall hold percentage. Too much of a reliance on football can actually work against your overall bottom line. It is far more profitable to spread the action out to multiple betting options than taking an all or nothing approach to the action you take in on the biggest football games that particular week. Working with the right pay per head site can help you expand your board accordingly.

Early Football Betting Results

In the college ranks, going chalk of the favorites straight-up has produced a 89.3 winning percentage over the first two weeks. Factoring in the closing spread, this rate drops to 50.3% with the Oddsmakers dead on their game.

The only significant edge is a 54.2 winning percentage against the spread for road favorites. There is no appreciable difference betting home teams (49.03%) and road teams (40.97%) ATS over a combined 159 games. Early college football results on the total line slightly favor the UNDER at 52.8%.

The betting results for the first 16 NFL games of the season were a mixed bag depending on your actual closing lines. The general consensus of online books have the favorites going 10-5-1 SU with a 6-9-1 record ATS. Home teams took it on the chin with a 5-10-1 record ATS. The total went over the closing line in nine of the 16 games.

Looking back at last week’s results for this season’s Westgate Las Vegas NFL SuperContest picks, Baltimore garnered the most action in its romp over Miami with 1080 picks. Indianapolis was a close second at 1052 with a PUSH against the Chargers. Houston was third on the list at 904 bets with a successful cover against New Orleans. Quite a few bettors also took it on the chin betting Tampa Bay and Denver as the two biggest losers.

This week’s early consensus leans heavily towards Dallas at 86 percent as a 4.5-point road favorite against Washington in a bitter NFC East rivalry. The Carolina Panthers get the early lean at 83 percent as seven-point home favorites for Thursday night’s NFC South clash against Tampa Bay. Rounding out the Top 3 is the Chicago Bears at 83 percent. They will be on the road against Denver as 2.5-point favorites in a late Sunday afternoon start.

83 percent of the public like the Panthers ATS

83 percent of the public like the Panthers ATS

The Weekend’s Big Betting Games

While the Week 3 college football schedule does not have any head-to-head matchups between nationally ranked teams, No. 1 Clemson on the road against Syracuse could be considered a game of interest, and one those operating a bookie website need to monitor.

Two years ago, the Orange stunned Clemson 27-24 closing as 23.5-point home favorites. Last season, the Tigers sweated out a 27-23 victory at home as 24.5-point favorites. The gap between the two teams this season appears to be rather wide with Clemson favored by 28 points.

The top showdown in the NFL this Sunday pits Minnesota on the road as a three-point underdog against Green Bay. Each of these NFC North rivals are coming off a big win in their openers. They are also neck-and-neck in most NFL futures odds to win the division title this season. The early edge for the winner this Sunday afternoon could be significant.

The early lean on the betting consensus favors the Vikings at 59 percent. The betting line has also moved in that direction after the Packers opened as 3.5-point favorites.

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Blog WriterWeekly Bookie Betting Report- Sept. 12

NFL Week 1 2019 | Week in Review

by Blog Writer on September 10, 2019

If only we could all start our own bookie website. Action from Week 1 of the NFL was fierce, and plenty of bettors and bookies alike walked home with a little extra in their wallets. Now we bring you the NFL Week 1 in review.

Well, almost everyone.

Adam Vinatieri’s missed extra point early in the Colts-Chargers game proved to be a difference-maker in the game ending as a push.


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Five underdogs stepped up and won in Week 1 starting with the NFL’s kickoff game in Chicago. Green Bay went in and gave the Bears a dose of their own medicine in a 10-3 Packers win. Green Bay was one of four road dogs – Buffalo, Tennessee, and San Francisco – that won in Week 1. Oakland, a three-point underdog with the Antonio Brown saga finally solved, went on to pound Denver at home on Monday night.

New England, a 5.5-point favorite over the Steelers absolutely pounded Pittsburgh and won by 30. Similarly, the Ravens made Miami look like a high school defense in putting up 59 points easily covering the seven-point spread.

Minnesota, Kansas City, and Dallas all covered. The Chiefs and Cowboys got big days from their quarterbacks – Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott – while the Vikings ran the ball 38 times for 172 yards in a 28-12 win over Atlanta.

Prescott went 25 for 32 with 405 yards and 4 TDs in Week 1

Prescott went 25 for 32 with 405 yards and 4 TDs in Week 1

Injury Update

Probably the biggest news on the injury wire from Week 1 was the Chiefs loss of WR Tyreek Hill. Hill, who had some offseason legal difficulties, hurt a shoulder early in Kansas City’s win over Jacksonville on Sunday. Hill will likely miss several weeks, but it doesn’t appear that he will be placed on injured reserve.

In the same game, Jaguars QB Nick Foles broke his left clavicle in the first quarter and was replaced by rookie Gardner Minshew. Foles will have surgery and will probably be placed on injured reserve and will be expected to return late in the season.

Other injuries in Week 1 that could affect any budding pay per head business include both Baker Mayfield and Mahomes. Mayfield bruised his right wrist and Mahomes suffered a sprained ankle. Neither should miss any time. Colts WR Devin Funchess may have a broken collarbone. Bengals RB Joe Mixon suffered an injury to his right ankle against Seattle and Chargers WR Mike Williams hurt a knee in the second half of their win over Jacksonville.

Latest Fantasy News

Hopefully fantasy football owners drooling over Tyreek Hill were smart enough to draft Sammy Watkins as a backup. With Hill out, Watkins became Mahomes go-to guy and ended up with nine catches, 198 yards, and three touchdowns.

Those with Foles as their starting quarterback (or even as a backup) will have to scramble. Foles’ backup, Minshew, actually played pretty well completing 22-of-25 passes for 275 yards and two touchdowns. He will become the starter until Foles returns.

Pittsburgh’s JuJu Smith-Schuster is now questionable for Week 2. Add him to the list of Foles, Mixon, Tevin Coleman, and Derrius Guice. For those scouring waiver wires, take a long look at guys like WR Marquise Brown and RB Malcolm Brown.

Brown, the receiver, caught two touchdown passes from Lamar Jackson in Baltimore and Brown the running back had 53 yards on 11 carries backing up Todd Gurley for the Rams. Before we move on, don’t miss our latest social media posts, and follow us on Twitter @Wagerhome today!

We will be here all season long giving you the news and notes to help you win more bets and pick the perfect fantasy team to get you in the money. Make Wagerhome your home for football information.

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Blog WriterNFL Week 1 2019 | Week in Review